Exploring modes of entry into international markets: direct investment or contractual relations.
Fernandes, Rui ; Gouveia, Borges ; Pinho, Carlos 等
Introduction
A fundamental problem in new markets approach is how the foreign
markets (FMs) should be served, considering the inherent costs of doing
business abroad. The traditional explanation to enlarge business into
FMs relies on cost advantages, scale economies, product differentiation
or brand reputation. Despite the possible advantages there is always a
doubt regarding the entry mode (EM) and related amount that the
multinational company (MNC) wish to afford.
In this paper, we provide an alternative approach to the
traditional evaluation using discounted cash flows technique, to support
the choice between EM using a subsidiary (own company (OC) or joint
venture (JV)), direct exporting (DE) and a local distributor (LD). In
this last choice, the MNC adopts a contractual arrangement with a local
provider to maximize the information regarding local market.
The setting when a MNC seeks to sell its products in a new FM is
that the revenues are uncertain. In entering the FM the MNC can exercise
the option to invest immediately, in its own sales operation, or
contract a local agent and eventually invest later using better market
knowledge.
Within this setting, we derive two research questions: (1) the
optimal mode of entry, also as the (2) moment for future changes. The
model predicts that a contractual arrangement is more likely when
markets are on average small, there is down-side risk in sales revenue
and the change between LD and OC can be achieved in a short period of
time.
The research challenge, using the existing background literature,
is related with the high costs of switching between different EMs,
forcing a period of inaction, during which the corporation continues to
use its current mode, even if the immediate profits favored switching
strategies. In sum, existing studies on dynamic EM choice emphasize the
value of the option to defer; however, when facing high uncertainty and
irreversibility of investment, MNCs tend to choose low-commitment EMs
and hesitate to make switching decisions.
With this study we enrich the application of real options (RO)
theory to the international business literature on choice of host
markets EMs under demand uncertainty. Our model implies that the choice
of EM depends mainly on the market uncertainty magnitude.
This paper is structured as follows. In the next two sections, the
background theory is supported and the reasoning for the used techniques
to solve the problem is presented. Section 3 illustrates the problem
under study. Section 4 presents the formulation of the models, with
generic sets. Section 5 describes the MNC case study, presents and
discusses the results. The paper concludes with some final remarks,
limitations and a discussion on future research.
1. Literature review
The process of globalization represents one of the most significant
trends that accelerate rapid growth of global corporative strategies.
Firms that want to internationalise must decide on a fitting EM in order
to make the best use of their scarce resources. But it's important
to analyse MNCs' motives for exploring a FM. Therefore, MNCs aim
international markets for two main reasons: (1) FMs are growing faster
than the domestic markets; and (2) searching greater sales volume in
order to achieve higher competitiveness, through cost advantage or
releasing resources for additional efforts in a product/ service push
strategy.
According to Czinkota and Ronkainen (1995) and recently following
Hollensen (2011), the motives for entering a FM can be split in
proactive and reactive. Proactive motives are related with growth goals,
economies of scale, tax or other legal benefits. On the other hand,
reactive reasons are due to competition, limited domestic market or
over-capacity. Despite the fact that the EM decision received
considerable attention in the literature with numerous theoretical and
empirical contributions (e.g. Brouthers, Hennart 2007; Morschett et al.
2010) its determinants remain inconclusive (B. B. Nielsen, S. Nielsen
2011).
When a firm is going to explore a FM, the choice of the best EM is
decided by the firm's expansion strategy in which, most frequently,
the EM has been examined in terms of selecting between OC and a JV
(Morschett et al. 2010). The decision of how and the moment to enter a
FM can be highly risky due to firms' industry competitive
conditions, mainly in the critical start-up stage, confronting the speed
to get accepted profitability levels versus the survival capacity
(Mudambi, Zahra 2007). Information asymmetry and distinct differences in
operational environments between countries have also been explored in
the literature (Luo, Shenkar 2011).
Companies can expand into FMs using the following mechanisms (Root
1994):
--exporting: (1) direct exporting (DE) using a domestic-based
export department, or (2) export sales representatives sent abroad to
find business;
--overseas direct investment: (1) creating a new OC, or acquire a
participation on an existing firm to handle sales, promotion and
distribution activities, or (2) establishing a JV;
--foreign-based distributors or agents: LDs might be given
exclusive rights to represent the company in the host country.
The EM that a MNC chooses has advantages and disadvantages that
will determine the resources to commit, the risk level, the degree of
control and potential return over the operations, (Erramilli, Rao 1993)
and may affect the overall exporting performance (Brouthers 2002;
Pineda, Hurtado 2011).
EM has been one of the most researched field in international
management (Werner 2002) and is presented as the structured way
organizations employ to gain, entry and operate in a new FM (e.g.
Sharma, Erramilli 2004). Past studies have suggested that the choice of
EMs is related to a firm's familiarity with the FM (e.g. Kim, Hwang
1992; Sarkar, Cavusgil 1996), which means that firms with prior host
market experience are more likely to choose a direct investment mode. A
number of FM characteristics can affect the choice of market servicing
modes. The commonly examined characteristics are attractiveness and
market size (Sarkar, Cavusgil 1996). Root (1994) suggests that small
markets favour EMs which require a low break-even sales volume (e.g.
DE), while markets with high sales potential justify the employment of
high resource commitment (OC or JV). Recently, industry environment, the
country risk, location and legal rules have also been considered in
studies regarding EMs (Ghauri, Cateora 2010; Malhotra, Sivakumar 2011).
For Mudambi and Zahra (2007), when industry conditions are highly
uncertain, new international ventures exhibit advantages in terms of
value-adding and disruption capabilities, which enable higher growth
rates. According to Morschett et al. (2010), companies prefer
cooperative EMs in situations with a higher country risk. Driffield et
al. (2010) and Duanmu (2011) correlated, despite their opposite views,
the country risk with the level of foreign ownership. Arslan and Larimo
(2011) found that different legal systems results in preference of
acquisitions.
The DE has advantages like low investment level and the possibility
to postpone an investment decision (Johanson, Vahlne 1990); the common
disadvantages are trade barriers (e.g. tariffs) and logistic factors
(Hill 2007). DE allows a firm to internationalize without major
investment effort and minimum risk; briefly, it can be the first step in
the internalization process (Hollensen 2011). However, it is also
associated with a low profit return (incorporates only part of the
margin) and provides little control (Agarwal, Ramaswami 1992). In
opposition to the gradual internationalization approach, some firms,
according their strategic challenge (Kwon, Konopa 1993) and location
related factors (Chung, Enderwick 2001), enter a FM through direct
investment. In contrast to DE, direct investment offers the firm a
higher degree of control over its international business and greater
revenues. However, direct investment modes are also associated with
greater risks, they imply higher management commitment and operations
complexity. The most widely used direct modes include JVs, wholly OCs,
and strategic alliances (Kwon, Konopa 1993). JVs represent an agreement
between two parties to operate in a particular market, aiming
performance incentives with knowledge share (Duarte, Suarez 2010), which
may minimize entering costs for start-up the business (Fey, Shekshnia
2011). One of the disadvantages is the need of a win to win partnership.
The firm will not have a tight control on the business and the shared
ownership may cause conflicts. We found a category of studies based on a
RO approach that consider whether JVs can be viewed as effective RO.
These studies suggest that a JV provides a firm with the ability to
exploit upside potential by acquiring the partner's equity (option
to grow), or to avoid future downside losses by selling the equity to
its partner (option to abandon) (Estrada et al. 2010; Fisch 2011).
Foreign direct investment using OC involves capital, technology and
personnel, and can be made through the acquisition of an existing entity
or the establishment of a new subsidiary or extension (branch). Direct
ownership provides a high degree of control and better knowledge about
the market. However, it requires a high level of investment and a high
degree of commitment. Acquisitions are often made as part of a
company's rapid growth strategy, whereby it is more beneficial to
take over an existing firm's operations when compared to expanding
on its own (Lee, Lieberman 2010). Nevertheless there could be limited
influence of local management and as a consequence, the participation
relies on a special distribution agreement.
According to Hill (2007) the decisions about entering in a FM can
be progressive and split in: market choice, time, scale of entry and
strategic commitments. The chain of establishment, or "Uppsala
model", is one of the earlier schools of thoughts and draws on the
assumption that the entry option into new markets is the result of a
series of staged and incremental decisions (Edwards 2002). Mudambi and
Zahra (2007) compared the performance of MNCs by adopting direct
investment with those that follow a sequential approach and found that a
new venture strategy is no more likely to fail than a sequential
approach to internationalisation. Later on, Kalinic and Forza (2012)
found that a sequential approach targeting host market relationships and
a flexible strategic focus will affect the speed of
internationalization.
2. Reasoning to choose ro to solve the problem
Investment analysis is usually conducted using the Net Present
Value (NPV) approach. Under NPV approach, the potential investor chooses
the best combinations of alternative markets to explore, based on the
projected values and its budgeting limitations. The NPV indicates the
magnitude of potential investment, using implicit assumptions that
reflect the basic inadequacy of this approach (Smit, Trigeorgis 2004;
Dixit, Pindyck 1994). These limitations can be overcome by using a
different perspective on investment under uncertainty, which is
recognized as the RO approach.
The NPV assumes that the investor has to make the investment now or
the investment will not be available in future. However, in the real
world there's usually the possibility to delay the investment
option until new information arrives and uncertainty about the future
market is reduced. This possibility introduces the "value
component" to the investment option that impacts the decision to
invest and its timing.
The usage of the RO technique is deemed appropriate only if there
is (Dixit, Pindyck 1994) uncertainty, managerial flexibility, and
totally or partially irreversible investment. While RO valuation has
been recognized by the scientific community, the approach yet lacks a
practical breakthrough (Lander, Pinches 1998). The models presented in
this paper aim at facilitating the understanding and practical
application of the RO. The framework we propose is organized across
organizational, strategic, valuation and controlling aspects of RO. The
first layer focuses on organizational aspects of RO valuation--input
parameters (Claeys, Walkup 1999). The second layer refers to the link of
RO value to strategy frame. The third layer refers to valuation aspects
for which we propose different techniques. The fourth and final layer is
about the controlling aspects of RO. Options are only valuable if they
are exercised accordingly, as so, monitoring the respective decision
rules and properly execution will enhance the learning process
(Copeland, Howe 2002). One of the most important questions in RO
analysis is to determine the optimal timing in which the investor should
exercise his opportunity. Time is critical since the value of the
investment opportunity depends on the market potential that changes over
time. An appropriate investment analysis approach must be able to
address these challenges.
Recent studies have also used the benefits of RO methodology to
support EMs choices under uncertainty (Brouthers, Dikova 2010; Cuypers,
Martin 2010; J. Li, Y. Li 2010). In this article, we further extend this
last stream of research by quantifying MNCs' choice of market EM
under uncertainty as options, including the decision time frame.
3. Problem description
Research question (RQ) 1--choose location. We consider two factors:
the market uncertainty level and the option entry costs. Our main
question is in which location should the MNC establish its investment in
moment zero--that is, which location provides the MNC with a higher
option value? Demand uncertainty concerning potential upside benefits
associated with international expansion will be measured as the demand
uncertainty in the target market. Two practical questions must support
the decision to define the market uncertainty: (a) what is the potential
market size and (b) what is the growth potential for the product/service
in that country?
RQ 2--choose FM entry mode (EM). We also consider two factors: the
market uncertainty level and the option entry costs. Our main question
is what EM should the MNC use when deciding in moment zero--that is,
which EM provides the MNC with a higher option value? The options exist
in the identified EMs: (a) DE and LD provide options to growth in the
future or to give up by minimizing investment costs; (b) OC provides
options realizing full capacity to explore market opportunities; (c) JV
provides options as it can be possible to buy the partner position.
RQ 3--change FM sales existing mode. Our main question relates with
the moment to change the actual EM to a new one--that is, what is the
moment at which a new mode can provide the MNC with a higher option
value?
Next section presents the model development to quantify decisions
for research questions 2 and 3. Research question 1 is considered in the
demand process representation.
4. Model formulation
In this section we present the mathematical formulation with
generic sets. The parameters and the objective function will follow.
Demand uncertainty in the FM is the uncertainty concerning
potential upside benefits associated with international expansion.
McGrath (1997) suggests that two factors may influence demand
uncertainty: potential FM size and potential growth rate. Folta and
Miller (2002) make a similar argument suggesting that the level of
market uncertainty and size of the market have a combined effect on the
option value. Following (Brouthers et al. 2008) suggestion we included
in the model factors like operating revenues and costs.
We consider a situation in which a producer (P) of established
products [MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII], located in
origin country (O), has decided to sell his products in a FM f [member
of] F, a market in which P has no sales experience. Among the options
available for selling in f we find four as potentially profitable: (a)
DE, (b) contracting with a LD, (c) establishing OC sales operation
(throw subsidiary or branch concept) and (d) participation in a JV.
The problem resolution will be split according each challenge for
research questions (RQ) 2 and 3. The model for RQ 2 is a single period
model, formulated as a profit maximization problem with a stochastic
variable. The model for RQ 3 will be treated in continuous time,
assuming that there is a deferring option without limit in time and that
the investment, once implemented, will produce impacts in perpetuity
(Dixit, Pindyck 1994). One important consequence of this assumption is
that as time tends to infinite (T = [infinity]), the cash flows tend to
zero. In this line, the investment can be seen as an optimal stopping
problem, where "stopping" means that the investment decision
is implemented.
We now list the sets and indexes to support a general application
for different investment modes and business realities:
--F = {1, 2, .., p}: foreign countries (= FMs), each country is
represented by f [member of] F, where p represents the total number of
available locations: [absolute value of F] = p;
--[X.sub.f] [subset] F: [X.sub.f] is a subset of F that represents
the direct tax rate (on profits) inside each FM f [member of] F and is
represented by [[chi].sub.f] [member of] [X.sub.f];
--[PHI] [subset] I = {1, 2, ... g}: [??] is a sub set of I that
represents all sku's inside product group I, each sku is
represented by [MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII],
where g represents the total number of product groups to be traded in FM
f [member of] F: [absolute value of I] = g;
--[??] = {-DE, LD, OC, JV}: alternative foreign EM, represented by
[lambda], where [absolute value of [??]] = 4.
To facilitate the formulation of the model, we introduce the
following notation:
--[[gamma].sub.f] ([lambda]) represents the present value of
investment, for each EM [lambda] [member of] [??] and FM f [member of]
F;
--[[phi].sub.f] ([lambda]) represents the operating costs to run
the business after investment, for each EM [lambda] [member of] [??] and
FM f [member of] F;
--[c.sub.v] represents the unit product variable cost;
--[p.sub.vf([lambda])] unit product selling price for each EM
[lambda] [member of] [??] and FM f [member of] F;
--[c.sub.LD] represents the co-participation on sales value,
applied to a local distributor;
--[p.sub.t] represents the unit transfer price;
--[[chi].sub.f] represents the tax rate applied in FM f [member of]
F.
4.1. Modelling the demand process
The main source of uncertainty affecting the investment decision is
the market demand. We assume that the demand is a stochastic variable,
denoted by Q and follows a geometric Brownian motion (similar assumption
in Bengtsson (2001)), subject to jumps modelled as a Poisson process,
such that:
dQ = [[mu].sub.Q]Qdt + [[sigma].sub.Q]Qd[z.sub.Q] + Qdq, (1)
where: [[mu].sub.Q] = instantaneous demand drift, [[sigma].sub.Q] =
market demand volatility, d[z.sub.Q] = [epsilon](t) [square root of dt];
[epsilon](t) [approximately equal to] N(0,1), d[z.sub.Q] = increment of
a wiener process, where [epsilon](t) is a serially uncorrelated and
normally distributed random variable; dq = (1 + u) with probability
[[lambda].sub.u] and demand jumps intensity represented by u. The time
required since the decision to the availability of the EM (mainly when a
subsidiary or partnership is needed) will be denoted as
"preparation stage" and is represented with n. This moment
considers mainly the legal affairs and resources allocation to endow
start-up operation.
It's expectable that in a certain moment t, including the
preparation period, there will be a demand level that supports the
decision to invest in a new FM, using one of the available EMs [??] or
change the actual existing operating mode, considering the preparation
period and the outcome results. To model our problem, we will assume a
different profit function prior (no sales in FM or existing operating
mode) and after the decision (entry in the foreign country using one of
the available EMs or change the existing mode) that we will denote as
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII], respectively.
We also assume that the decision to invest in a FM is affected only
by profit advantages, and not by competitive advantages through proper
market positioning, such as the degree of product differentiation
(simplification also defended by Hamada (2010)).
4.2. Model I--choice of market EM model
At time zero, the MNC compares the RO value of investing in FMs and
chooses the location, which provides a higher option value. Formally,
the MNC's optimal profit function to enter in a single FM f [member
of] F, in moment t + n, is represented as:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII], (2)
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII], (3)
where [rho] is the discounted rate.
4.3. Model II--choice the moment for changing the actual EM
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]. (4)
Now we denote by [t.sup.*] the timing of the decision to change the
actual mode to support sales in FM, therefore we split to moments,
before [t.sup.*] and after [t.sup.*], for which a different profit
function will be applied: for simplification we will denote
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]. (5)
Considering only the members that depend on t (relevant moment
impacting the decision process), the previous formula comes as:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]. (6)
As stated before, we assume the existence of a preparation period n
during which the change will occur. This is logic and is according the
reality as firms cannot endow such decisions with instantaneous results.
5. Application of the framework to a case study
Model I
To support the application of the proposed models, we will use the
case study of a MNC that wants to extend its operations to a new FM. The
management team has decided to use DE but, considering the potential
growth of the target market, the MNC wants to prepare conditions for an
additional and fast extension of its operations. The values used in the
case study are presented in Table 1--appendix B.
Figure 1 provides results comparing the entry options with the
demand quantity evolution. It is assumed that DE is always an available
entry option and the values reported consider the difference between DE
and other possible alternatives like LD, OC and JV. Analysing the
results we conclude that the demand quantity, for demand volatility
level equal to 20%, influences the options regarding the EM in a new FM.
LD option has the same value as DE despite the quantity level; as such
the difference between these two EMs is close to zero. OC option value
increases as the demand quantity increases, which reflect the scale
effect (this has been one of the valid arguments used for long time in
transaction cost theory (Anderson, Gatignon 1986)). JV is not a
profitable option in the conditions presented and it seems to be worst
as the quantities increase.
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
On Figure 2 we study the effect of demand volatility on the
available options value, for demand quantity equal to 100.000 sqm. The
values report the difference between LD, OC and JV when compared with
DE. The results show that in very high uncertain FM (more than 40%
volatility levels) the option using OC compared with DE is negative,
meaning that the company in such FM should opt for DE as the risk is
high. In general, as the volatility levels increase, the alternative
entry options, when compared with DE, become less attractive. At the
end, Figure 2 supports that when uncertainty is high the firm opts to
invest in low-commitment EMs such as DE or LD. Indeed, the learning
process argument has been supported by the literature that suggests
collaborative EMs like LDs and JVs to be especially suited for exploring
FM and building capabilities (Ireland et al. 2002; Kogut, Kulatilaka
2001; Meyer et al. 2009). At the end, the model results support that
entering a FM in the face of high uncertainty can be rational, even
though traditional theories of market entry, using the NPV, advise not
to invest (Fisch 2008).
Figure 3 considers the effect of tax regimes (direct taxes on
profits) in FMs. The results show that the tax policies can influence
the decision on the EM; more aggressive tax regimes are less attractive
for direct investment to establish the local operation (OC or JV).
According to Figure 3 the option for OC versus DE has no additional
value for tax rates above 30%. The interpretation of these results must
be complemented with previous studies, like the one from Davies et al.
(2010) that explored the relation between taxation and foreign
investment. We also show that even with harmonized taxes, the
international firm may choose OC. As such, in non-cooperative tax
regimes, the host country can use its profit tax strategically in order
to enforce a more desirable EM.
[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]
Model II
The model II explores the moment for the change. In the case study
we will consider the change from the actual mode DE to OC mode. The
results can also be extended to other EMs.
In Figure 4 the analysis refers to the impact of demand behaviour
(volatility level, jumps probability and intensity) on the trigger
moment (optimal quantity level) in the option to change from the actual
mode DE to a new one OC. The trigger moment is defined considering the
demand quantity level and assumes that the investor can cover a bigger
share of fixed costs at higher growth rates over time and, as such, he
is willed to switch into OC earlier (Hiller, Yalcin 2009). In
particular, the results show that the demand level required for the
change in the EM increases as the volatility level increases, which
means that, in high unpredictable markets, the time to decide investing
in a subsidiary is much longer when compared with more stable markets.
These results complement the work of Fisch (2008), by analysing the
success of applying RO reasoning to the timing of entry.
An additional simulation in Figure 5 considers the impact of the
preparation period in the moment for the change in the EM. Figure 5
describes the relation between the preparation periods--steps--to endow
the initiative to invest in a subsidiary. As the steps to ramp-up the
operation become longer and time consuming, the decision must be
anticipated in time, even if the demand levels are still low. A possible
interpretation of these results is that the early movers prefer a
non-equity mode with lower preparation period; on the other hand, the
late movers prefer the equity mode as their EM strategy (Isa et al.
2012). Complementary, these findings follow the study carried out by
Schwens and Kabst (2009) where the early movers, as compared to late
movers, preferred cooperative modes of market entry with less
preparation period, such as DE or LDs.
[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]
[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]
Conclusions
We extend applications of RO theory to enrich the foreign
investment literature on choice of EM under uncertainty. Our models
provide an example to illustrate how to apply RO to topics in
international business.
Specifically, by taking into consideration market volatility in
FMs, we have examined the conditions under which each EM, such as DE,
LD, OC or a JV, is optimal. Complementary, we introduce the relevant
timing moment to endow a corporative decision on EM option.
Our results indicate that EM choice essentially depends on the
magnitude of FM uncertainty. When uncertainty is high, firms are
inclined to invest in low-commitment EMs, such as DE, as they valuable
options to abandon. If FM uncertainty is low, MNCs may change their
decisions by investing in high commitment market modems, such as OC or
JV, as they are more likely to provide valuable growth options, such as
first mover advantages. If a wholly owned EM is selected, firms need to
choose between starting that venture from the beginning or acquiring an
existing venture (acquisition) reducing the preparation period.
The results have important implications for theory development and
future research. EM choice is one important international strategic
decision that firms make; future research may wish to examine other
critical international strategic decisions, such as international market
selection. In addition, there may be future opportunities to further
expand the decision criteria relevant to explaining market EM choices by
taking a broader view of the factors contributing to value the new
market entry.
At the end, the results provide partial support for
internationalization theory, as well as justify the validity of using
high-commitment EMs, even under high levels of uncertainty.
The results of this study are likely to be helpful in the
formulation and support of market entry strategies. However, caution
must be exercised while generalising the findings of the current study.
This study is based on a single case and presents a number of
limitations typical for this type of international research. In order to
control the possible existence of country or industry key determinants,
it is necessary to repeat the research in other industries with
different attractiveness considering the number of players (Tran et al.
2012) and different demand behaviours. For future, carrying out the
application of the model with additional case studies, would allow
having a control group in order to understand whether the strategic
focus differs between successful and unsuccessful internationalizations.
Caption: Fig. 1. Simulation of different options for entering in a
FM, considering different demand quantity levels
Caption: Fig. 2. Simulation of different options for entering in a
FM, considering different volatility levels
Caption: Fig. 3. Simulation of different options for entering in a
FM, considering different tax rates
Caption: Fig. 4. Simulation of the trigger moment for the change of
EM, considering different demand volatility levels, jumps probability
and intensity levels
Caption: Fig. 5. Simulation of the trigger moment for the change of
EM, considering different preparation periods to support the investment
APPENDIX A
Technique resolution for Model II: from DE to OC. In the actual
situation investment has already been decided to change from DE to OC.
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII], (A1)
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]. (A2)
Because we assume that [MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN
ASCII] follows a geometric Brownian motion subject to a Poisson process
(see extended equation (1)), the expected optimal value [MATHEMATICAL
EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] at time [t.sup.*] comes as:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]. (A3)
We are going to define a simple notation for each part of equation:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII].
We can obtain the profit value p, in actual moment, by maximizing
equation (A2), satisfying the following differential equation:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]. (A4)
Initial condition: [pi](0) = 0; Value matching condition: [pi](Q) =
A.Q + B.Q + C + E; Smooth condition: [partial derivative]v/[partial
derivative]Q = A + B, with Q = [Q.sup.*]. If we consider (A4) a second
order Cauchy-Euler function (Ross 1996), the solution can be written as:
[pi](Q) = [a.sub.1][??]; where [r.sub.1] is the result of the following
non-linear equation: [MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN
ASCII]. For a given value of Q and for t = 0, the value [Q.sup.*] that
maximizes [pi](Q) is given by the solution of the following equation:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]. (A5)
APPENDIX B
Table 1. Data to support the case study
notation value unit notation value
[MATHEMATICAL 100.000 sqm 14
EXPRESSION NOT
REPRODUCIBLE
IN ASCII]
[[mu].sub.Q] 5 % [p.sub.vf(LD)] 26.25
[[sigma].sub.Q] 20 % [c.sub.LD] 5%pv(LD)
r 5 % [p.sub.vf(OC)] 35
n 1/4 years [p.sub.t] 17
[p.sub.vf(DE)] 25 euros/sqm [X.sub.f] 25
[.sub.pvf(JV)] 35 euros/sqm h 50
[[lambda].sub.u] 10 % u 3
notation unit notation
[MATHEMATICAL euros/sqm [[phi].sub.fDE)]
EXPRESSION NOT
REPRODUCIBLE
IN ASCII]
[[mu].sub.Q] euros/sqm [[gamma].sub.DE)]
[[sigma].sub.Q] % [[phi].sub.fLD)]
r euros/sqm [[gamma].sub.fLD)]
n euros/sqm [[phi].sub.f(OC)]
[p.sub.vf(DE)] % [[gamma].sub.f(OC)]
[.sub.pvf(JV)] % [[phi].sub.f(JV)]
[[lambda].sub.u] % [[gamma].subf(JV)]
notation value unit
[MATHEMATICAL 55.000 euros/year
EXPRESSION NOT
REPRODUCIBLE
IN ASCII]
[[mu].sub.Q] 45.000 euros
[[sigma].sub.Q] 80.000 euros/year
r 45.000 euros
n 250.000 euros/year
[p.sub.vf(DE)] 350.000 euros
[.sub.pvf(JV)] 100.000 euros/year
[[lambda].sub.u] 150.000 euros
doi: 10.3846/16111699.2013.809786
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Rui Fernandes (1), Borges Gouveia (2), Carlos Pinho (3)
(1) Superior School of Industrial Studies and Management,
Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Rua D. Sancho I. 981, 4480-876 Vila do
Conde, Portugal
(2,3) Department of Economics, Management and Industrial
Engineering, Aveiro University, Campus Universitdrio de Santiago,
3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
E-mails: (1) rfernandes.ar@amorim.com (corresponding author); (2)
bgouveia@ua.pt; (3) cpinho@ua.pt
Received 14 March 2013; accepted 27 May 2013
Rui FERNANDES. PhD in Industrial Management and Graduated in
Finance, he is Assistant Professor at the Superior School of Industrial
Studies and Management, Polytechnic Institute of Porto, where he teaches
in Master of Corporate Finance and collaborates in many international
seminars. CFO at Amorim Revestimentos, SA and board member at its
international companies in Europe, USA and Japan.
Borges GOUVEIA. PhD and Aggregate in Electrotechnical and Computer
Engineering. He is Full Professor at University of Aveiro. Board member
of Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A.
Carlos PINHO. PhD and Aggregate in Applied Economics and Master in
Finance. He is associated Professor at University of Aveiro and Director
of the Doctorate in Accounting.