Product development through multi-criteria analysis.

Kostanjevec, Tomaz ; Polajnar, Andrej ; Herzog, Natasa Vujica 等

1. INTRODUCTION

Modern companies require constant investment into development. The development of the equipment for product development is also very wide, while the use of such equipment is still not as widespread as it should be (Crawford & DiBenedetto 2008). As a line of business, product development has played an important role in production engineering by researches within the global industry experience, design and analysis (Cooper 2001), product design (Clark & Wheelwright 1993) and creativity used in product development (Goldenberg & Mazursky 2004).

On the other hand, product development also includes research within the market with regard to customer needs, product positioning and segmentation, product forecasting and test marketing. The production and engineering precision, combined with the marketing approach, both of which were focused on customer needs and production capability, proved very successful (Griffin & Hauser 1996). In parallel with the development of established equipment, researchers discovered the correlation of new product success by establishing the communication between marketing and production engineering as the most important elements necessary for success. New challenges and opportunities are reflected in global markets, global competitiveness, the global spread of engineering knowledge and with communication technologies. The use of multi-criteria analysis with product development represents a new challenge and an opportunity in design research and new product forecasting (Glavac & Ren 2007).

2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

In the last decade companies were focused on new product development on the basis of satisfying customer needs. Researchers in the field of marketing were convinced that understanding customer needs and improving the transfer of these needs to product manufacturers was the key to success. Under unchanged conditions a product will prove profitable if it supplies customers with greater satisfaction, is among the leading products in the market, and has low production and development costs. The concept of joint or common dealing of product parameters is included in the conjoint product analysis. For example, a company should have a strategy for dealing with technology and with implementing methods for understanding opportunities that are to be offered to customers by means of offered products, as well as with recognising where demands and expectations are not being fulfilled. The process of multi-criteria product analysis also includes product platforms. It has been recognised in numerous industry branches and companies that it is far more effective

to develop products in platforms. From the point of view of customers these platforms supply companies with the possibility of adapting to customer demands and market needs (Ulrich & Eppinger 2000).

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

3. MODEL OF MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE

The conceptual model with data capture and information flow is shown in Figure 1. The data is collected from the market with a data collecting form and the data flows into the data collector together internal--production data. The combined data is processed in the model, and in this way the model anticipates trends on the basis of individual parameters as well as the common trend. The possibility of development determination also depends on the body's centre of gravity which is time-dependent. Possible feedback connections are also shown on the conceptual Figure 1 and serve as corrections or modifications to the model.

The idea about multi-dimensional analysis of product acceptability in the market was born from watching two-dimensional graphs showing the dependence of the dependent variable from the independent one. The independent variable represents time, the dependent one is derived from the observed and most representative parameters--e.g. prices, sale quantities, input into development on individual product, costs of manufacturing. Because of the incapability of demonstrating individual parameters on one graph the concept or model is presented, which could eliminate that weakness. Due to longer non-changeability of products and technology in the inspected branch most of the products observed remained the same in that time or changed minimally. The calculated trend on the basis of the gravity centre is represented graphically and mathematically and applies for future years.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Presentation of results with a polar way of data demonstration is improved since it shows the trend and not just information. The centre of gravity of the surface shape enclosed by polar coordinates of observed parameters is calculated. The shape contains a set of n-triangles and the sum of the n-centers of the mass of those triangles is the mass centre of one observed time parameter. An algorithm draws and calculates polar coordinates for individual periods between the year m-1 and the adjacent variable, and the year m+1 and the adjacent variable. The year is selected as a time argument typical for the branch since the product and technology changes are relatively slow. The representation of the centre of mass in a polar way (Eq.1), (Eq.2) and (Eq.3) provides complete information related to an individual time period.

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (3)

[[rho].sub.m] = [square root of [x.sub.m.sup.2] + [y.sub.m.sup.2]] (2)

[[gamma].sub.m] = [tg.sup.-1] ([y.sub.m]/[x.sub.m]) (3)

Time as the only independent variable is represented by the central axis in the graph, which is the result of model visualization. The displacement of dependent variables on time shows their importance and development upon time parameter. There are an arbitrary number of dependent variables in the model. They are configured in the circle around time in the form of uniform distribution. In the observed changing of the trend it has been ascertained that linear accommodation is inaccurate.

These are higher order curves that are genomically imposed and on the bases of polynomial curves and Fourier rows (harmonic analysis in Eq.4) they form a trend for each parameter separately (curve accommodation is higher than 95%).

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (4)

4. DISCUSION

The observed model shows the aggregate variable to be the centre of gravity. Analysis of data in the future allows linear review or quadratic review of the trend, including an arbitrary form of establishing a trend based on lines of respective independent variables (Figure 3). The common trend of spatial lines allows for analysis of a common product development trend. It depends on the respective field whether data from the market or from the company is more important.

When the model is ideal, all dependent variables may be presented arbitrarily at optional angles, and further broken down into their dependent variables. When reviewing independent variables this may be done in a classical circle diagram. The system is limited by the values of the dependent parameters of the product, which represent the limit value.

[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]

This limit value is the limit which the company is not allowed to surpass in a respective product development in considering the model, as doing so would impair its competitiveness, which must be monitored with regard to all parameters of the product. In this part the model looks to the finite elements analysis, where outer limits are recommended for development and establishment of individual product parameters--summarised according to (Glavac & Ren 2007). Figure 2 shows the >>skeleton<< multidimensional graph of product development. Limits to the system are set uniformly with boundary lines of observed parameters. On the Figure 3 (which was made from real case study) we see, that importance of price is moving toward design. Attention of the specific firm should be focused on design in next few years.

5. CONCLUSION

Life cycles of technologies, products and processes are becoming ever shorter, so technological foresight is a very important aspect of their planning. In a time when foretelling the development of products is difficult and the price of error as steep as it is, the article offers a solution for the development of products through multidimensional analysis. The developed model of product design through multi-criterial analysis can be used in the development of virtually any mass produced product. Model has a lot of potential and a lot of space for further investigations and real case study modifications.

6. REFERENCES

Clark, K. B., Wheelwright, S. C. (1993) Managing new product and process development: text and cases. New York [etc.]: The free press: Simon & Schuster. XV, 896 p. ISBN 0-02905517-2

Cooper , R. G. (2001) Winning at new products: accelerating the process from idea to launch. 3rd ed. Reading (Mass.): Perseus,. XIII, 425 p. ISBN-13 978-0-7382-0463-5

Crawford, C. M., Di Benedetto, C. A. (2008) New products management. 9th ed. Boston [etc.]: McGraw-Hill/Irwin. XVIII, 558 p. ISBN-13 978-0-07-352988-2

Glavac, M., Ren, Z. (2007) Multicriterial optimization of a car structure using a finite element method. Journal of Mechanical engineering, vol. 53, No. 10, p. 657-666.

Goldenberg, J., Mazursky, D. (2004) Creativity in product innovation. 3rd printing. Cambridge (U. K.) [etc.]: Cambridge university press. XIII, 224 p. ISBN 0-521-80089-7

Griffin, A. J., Hauser J. R. (1996) Integrating R&D and marketing: a review and analysis of the literature. Journal of product innovation management, vol. 13, No. 3, p. 191-215.

Ulrich, K. T., Eppinger, S. D. (2000) Product design and development. 2nd ed. Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill. XXVI, 358 p. ISBN 0-07-229647-X