Risk management for new products.

Zapciu, Miron ; Tilina, Dragos ; Tilina, Dana 等

1. INTRODUCTION

A fundamental characteristic of the organizations is their capacity for an efficient and rapid adaptment to market requirements. The life cycle of large utilization products is of maximum 3 years, and the industrial ones of 5 years. In addition, the life durations of equipements are between 5 and 10 years, the exceeding of this duration going to moral wear and to the diminuation of the moral use. All these influenced the economic efficiency of the organizations. The organizations are obliged to a permanent renew of their products to be able to satisfy the market requires from qualitative and quantitative point of view. That's why, the launch of a product on the market suppose to assume some inevitable risks.

The risk management is often quoted in many works, but none clearly define the instruments that integrate in this. These works usually treat the analyses methods of the risks concentrated on a product or on the manufacturing methods of the product and do not permit the management of the three main elements which assure the success of a product in the market: costs, delay and performances. That's why it is necessary the utilization of the specific management risk methods, together with the specific project management methods (Royer, 2000).

2. THE METHOD INTEGRATION PRINCIPLE

A study made on 27 searching works about the method integration in a organization showed that 77% of documents treat only the description of the methods and not the integration subject. Only 4.2% from these describe the possibilities of integration and the encountered options (Perrin, 2005).

The studies lied to the conclusion that a risk evaluation made when the product was launched is not enough. A late identification of the risks may have only negative consequences. That's why, the evaluation of the risks is necessary when the product is conceived so to establish the cause and the effects of some threads, and also the risks specific to the launched process in order to prevent its failure on the market, even in good conditions of planification and manufacturing (Ispas & Cotet, 1998).

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

In our approach of defining the stages of risks methodology we came up to the conclusion that any approach of risks mastering is based on some stages that facilitate a good development. In analogy with life cycle stages of a product so to analyse the phenomenon it is necessary identification and evaluation of the events that generate the risk, finally arriving to a risk analyses and to establish and implement risk prevention method (Tilina, 2008).

An important aspect is the interative character. This allows a continue unrolled of the development that starts in the some time with the initiation stage and finishes in the some time with the product materialization. More than that, the complementarity between the risk management and the project management lied us to the conclusion that risk analyses permits a better unrolled of the project.

3. RISK MANAGEMENT FOR TECHNICAL RISK

Many technical domains deal with the problems of incidents appearance, proposing attenuation methods for threads effects. The reliability put at the disposal, methods and technics for technical and functional viability achievement (Masala, 2004). The management proposes solutions to organise and lead an efficient process. The medium frequency of appearance may be associated as a common parameter for the incidents and threads categories. So a dependency between the frequencies of events appearance of the threads and the taking measures for assuring the stability and process security may be achieved (eq.1).

[bar.f] = - 1/T(1 - [epsilon]); [epsilon] [member of](0.1) (1)

where:

--[bar.f]--the medium frequency of an event appearance;

--T--the monitorisation time of the events appearance;

--[epsilon]--a positive subunit coefficient (the diminuation potential of an unwanted event appearance).

The medium frequency of technical events is the sum of medium frequencies divided at four.

[[bar.f].sub.t] = [[bar.f].sub.th] + [[bar.f].sub.m] + [[bar.f].sub.i] + [[bar.f].sub.s] (2)

If we achieve surveillance and maintenance of the process, we can consider that the duration's distribution between two interventions belongs to the normal functional repartitions. The cutting of is asymmetric in accordance with the durations media between two normal interventions.

[K.sub.f] (t) [member of] N([mu], [sigma]); t [member of] (0,[T.sub.i]) (3)

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (4)

[mu] = [([bar.f]).sup.-1] (5)

and

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (6)

The medium values of dispertion and media between two interventions along a cycle ([T.sub.c]) are:

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (7)

and

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (8)

With these values the possibilities of some incidents appearance on the time of an unrolled normal cycle is calculated. For a better appreciation of a process evolution the possibilities of the unwanted events can be calculated for each thread category.

From a monitoring strategy of a process point of view, each definitory parameter xi may be characterized by a critical limit [XC.sub.i] in which the incident may appear, a value [XE.sub.i], over which measures of events appearance avoiding cannot be taken and a alarm value [XA.sub.i] which attention the incident appearance.

According to the characteristics of the process and the speed of a thread transformation in an incident, the intervention periods are defined ([t.sub.e] - [t.sub.a]) so to prevent the incident and the action, in order to annihilate the consequences of the incident ([t.sub.c] - [t.sub.e]) or for a preventive diminuation of this consequences.

The annihilation or attenuation methods have a short period of prevention, these obviously continuing also after the incident appearance.

If for the period ([t.sub.e] - [t.sub.a]) the intervention mode is established by the security strategy, the annihilation and attenuation actions of the consequences of an event preventive provoqued, represent a full security component and are achieved after specifical professional studies for each process.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

The intervention duration is determined with the following relation:

[T.sub.i] = [XE.sub.i] - [XA.sub.i]/tg [alpha] = ([XE.sub.i] - [XA.sub.i]) x [(lim [dx.sub.i]/dt).sup.-1] (9)

The medium probability of an unwell event appearance ([e.sub.i]) during a normal cycle unroll with the medium probability of the delaying of the alarm signal detection after a time period longer than the critical time period (for intervention) of the process variable is:

P([e.sub.i]) = p[(t > Ti) [intersection] (0 [less than or equal to] t < Tc)]/p(0 [less than or equal to] t < [T.sub.c]) (10)

4. CONCLUSION

The study results allow parallel identifications of the project and risk management stages, considering a commune integration structure.

The choosing of the methods could be different from an organization to another. That is why we propose a risk management based on clearly defined steps, as we showed on the second chapter and detailed for technical risks category on the third chapter. Every step can be developed depending on risk type. For the technical risks, we can calculate the intervention duration [T.sub.i], as well as the medium probability of an unwell event appearance [e.sub.i]. We also can choose the strategy based on risk analysis results.

In addition we propose, for a better adaptation to any type of organisation, the consideration of the following main aspects:

* The study of the methods applied in the organisation;

* The integration of the methods according to the defined structure;

* The validation of the integration in a general character study;

5. REFERENCES

Ispas, C.; Cotet, C. (1998). Project Management concepts, Bren, Bucharest

Masala, F. (2004) Contributions regarding risk evaluation for investment projects, Doctor's degree thesis, Bucharest

Perrin, F. (2005) Improvement of design reflexes by integrating new methods, Doctor's degree thesis, Bucharest

Royer, S. (2000). Project Risk Management--A Proactive Approach, Management Concepts, Project Management Institute, Inc.

Tilina, D. (2008), Contributions concerning risk assessment for new product launching, Doctor's degree thesis, UPB