Megamedia Shakeout.

St. John, Burton

When one attempts to focus on where America's media is going, one cannot escape the observation that new technology is clouding the picture. Long-held conceptions of the way mass media works is changing.

What was once widely accepted a, bout mass media - that it is one-way and instantaneously delivered to the audience - is becoming more inaccurate each day. Newspapers, facing the loss of readership, are looking for ways to entice subscribers to personalized on-line editions. With the passage of the new telecommunications bill, telephone companies like Bell Atlantic and Southwestern Bell Corporation (SBC) may find themselves competing with cable companies to provide interactive video shopping or movies on demand. In addition, computer on-line services like America On-Line and Prodigy compete against traditional media. A recent survey shows household television viewing is down while time spent engaged with on-line services is up.

Kevin Maney, a technology writer for USA Today, gamely tries to make sense of these trends. Television won't become a computer hybrid, he says. Rather, we'll see the development of a "smart" set-top box (essentially, a souped- up cable box) that will allow you, through your program provider, to order a pizza, call up video games or electronically browse through a catalog and make an order. Maney holds that there will be intense competition to provide these services; therefore it's unlikely that only one provider, for example SBC, will successfully market a comprehensive package of television and phone services.

What does all this mean for the media and consumers? Maney's approach doesn't provide clear answers. He investigates each technology sector as though he were a sports reporter allowed exclusive access to the coach's playbook. That is, he tends to spend more time talking about who will be likely winners and losers in individual skirmishes in the cable, telephone, computer and entertainment industries. This myopic view is most transparent when he elaborately describes how new media technology will work, but offers no thoughts about the long-term consequences of these products.

When examining Bell Atlantic's new Stargazer, he says, "[A Bell Atlantic official] picks up an air mouse, a wandlike remote control that has only a couple of buttons. He points it at the screen and clicks to power up Stargazer . . . Point the air mouse to move past the stores on the street - J.C. Penney, Sharper Image, Eddie Bauer." Not surprisingly, Maney contends that the consumer will soon do more that just watch the television - he will buy through the television. The fallout, in Maney's view, is this: interactive will be where the money is, and where the media winners will be.

That may be true in the short term, but Maney still leaves the reader wondering how interactive technology will shape the media and consumer demands over the long haul. Maney himself must realize that "Megamedia Shakeout" doesn't adequately address the fuller consequences of new media technologies. He devoted a February USA Today column to interviews with technology experts who experience a similar fuzziness when struggling with the "what does it all mean?" question. One CEO told Maney of his desperate strategy to figure out what's going on. "It requires that I read, on a daily basis, six newspapers and, during a month, 100 to 105 magazines."

But there's a lot more going on here than a CEO's frantic need to keep up. Media ownership is becoming more concentrated in America. More than five percent of all American homes are already wired into an interactive service. Meanwhile, some 90 million Americans are considered less than fully literate. Surely there are connections between the new technologies and these effects, and Maney offers no insight.

"Megamedia Shakeout" gives us an adequate view of the new media technology, but says nothing substantial about where this technology's influence will lead the media. Consequently, this book offers nothing to dissuade a technology analyst Maney quoted in that same February column, "I open the paper every day with a terrible fear I'll see something I don't know about," says the analyst.

Burton St. John, APR, is a public relations consultant and guest lecturer in communications at the University of Missouri-St. Louis.