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  • 标题:Computation of available transfer capability using neural network.
  • 作者:Rao, K. Narasimha ; Kumar, K. Kiran ; Amarnath, J.
  • 期刊名称:International Journal of Applied Engineering Research
  • 印刷版ISSN:0973-4562
  • 出版年度:2008
  • 期号:January
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Research India Publications
  • 摘要:Transition of electric industry from its vertically integrated structure to horizontal structure poses many problems to power system engineers and researchers. In the environment of open transmission access, US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) requires that Available Transfer Capability (ATC) information be made available on a publicly accessible Open Access Same Time Information System (OASIS) [1]. Utility engineers must continuously compute and update hourly ATC values to be made available in the web.
  • 关键词:Algorithms;Electric power transmission;Measurement;Mensuration;Neural networks

Computation of available transfer capability using neural network.


Rao, K. Narasimha ; Kumar, K. Kiran ; Amarnath, J. 等


Introduction

Transition of electric industry from its vertically integrated structure to horizontal structure poses many problems to power system engineers and researchers. In the environment of open transmission access, US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) requires that Available Transfer Capability (ATC) information be made available on a publicly accessible Open Access Same Time Information System (OASIS) [1]. Utility engineers must continuously compute and update hourly ATC values to be made available in the web.

Due to Deregulation, Power-wheeling transactions have become a very important issue [2]. Generally Power wheeling is defined as the power transmitted from a power producer to a customer through transmission systems and distribution facilities of third party. Since the transmission facilities have their physical limitation, not all of the power wheeling transaction can be accepted and carried out in the power market. Thermal limits of transmission facilities, voltage limits at each bus, reactive power constraints of generating units and net interchange constraints do limit the feasibility of power transfer.

Power transaction between a specific seller bus/area and a buyer bus/area can be committed only when sufficient ATC is available for that interface to ensure the system security [3], [4]. The information about the ATC is to be continuously updated and made available to the market participants through the Internet-based system such as Open Access Same time Information System (OASIS).

Method based on linear sensitivity factors offer a great potential for real time calculation of ATC [8]. Use of these factors offers an approximate but extremely fast model for the static ATC determination.

Proposed the new set of AC Power Transfer Distribution Factors (ACPTDF) to determine static ATC more accurately [5].

In deregulated power systems, Available Transfer Capability analysis is presently a critical issue either in the operating or planning because of increased area interchanges among utilities. A new model employing artificial neural networks to calculate available transfer capability is developed in this paper. Based on the AC power transfer distribution factor formulation for calculating available power transfer capability and the strong generalizing ability of the neural networks[11],[12], the new model can calculate multi-area available transfer capabilities quickly for a given power system status.

This paper is organized as follows. Section II provides a review of ATC. In Section III provides a brief review of the artificial neural network and the back propagation feed forward algorithm [13], which is used in this paper to train this neural network. In section IV, the problem of available transfer capability calculations is formulated. The proposed methodology is implemented in section V and a case study is given in section VI to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method. Finally, a conclusion is made in section VII.

Available Transfer Capability

In a deregulated power system structure, power producers and customers share a common transmission network for wheeling power from the point of generation to the point of consumption. All parties in this open access environment may try to produce the energy from the cheaper source for greater profit margin, which may lead to overloading and congestion of certain corridors of the transmission network. This may result in violation of line flow, voltage and stability limits and thereby undermine the system security. Utilities therefore need to determine adequately their "Available Transfer Capability (ATC)" to ensure that system reliability is maintained while serving a wide range of bilateral and multilateral transactions. The electric transmission utilities are required to post the information of ATC of their transmission network through the open access same time information system (OASIS).

Power transactions between a specific seller bus/area can be committed only when sufficient ATC is available for that interface. Thus, such transfer capability can be used for reserving transmission services, scheduling firm and non-firm transactions and for arranging emergency transfers between seller bus/areas or buyer bus/areas of an interconnected power system network. ATC among areas of an interconnected power system network and also for critical transmission paths between areas are required to be continuously computed, updated and posted to OASIS following any change in the system conditions.

Transfer Capability

Transfer capability [1] is the measure of the ability of interconnected electric systems to reliably move or transfer power from one area to another over all transmission lines (or paths) between those areas under specified system conditions. In this context, "area" may be an individual electric system, power pool, control area, sub region, or North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) Region, or a portion of any of these. Transfer capability is also directional in nature. That is, the transfer capability from Area A to Area B is not generally equal to the transfer capability from Area B to Area A.

ATC Definitions

Available Transfer Capability (ATC) [3] is a measure of the transfer capability remaining in the physical transmission network for further commercial activity over and above already committed uses. Mathematically, ATC is defined as the Total Transfer Capability (TTC) less the Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM), less the sum of existing transmission commitments (which includes retail customer service) and the Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM).

Total Transfer Capability (TTC) is defined as the amount of electric power that can be transferred over the interconnected transmission network in a reliable manner while meeting all of a specific set of defined pre and post-contingency system conditions.

Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) is defined as that amount of transmission transfer capability necessary to ensure that the interconnected transmission network is secure under a reasonable range of uncertainties in system conditions.

Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM) is defined as that amount of transmission transfer capability reserved by load serving entities to ensure access to generation from interconnected systems to meet generation reliability requirements.

Limits to Transfer Capability

The ability of interconnected transmission networks to reliably transfer electric power may be limited by the physical and electrical characteristics of the systems including any one or more of the following:

Thermal LimitsThermal limits establish the maximum amount of electrical current that a-- transmission line or electrical facility can conduct over a specified time period before it sustains permanent damage by overheating or before it violates public safety requirements.

Voltage Limits--System voltages and changes in voltages must be maintained within the range of acceptable minimum and maximum limits. A widespread collapse of system voltage can result in a blackout of portions or the entire interconnected network.

Stability Limits--The transmission network must be capable of surviving disturbances through the transient and dynamic time periods (from milliseconds to several minutes, respectively) following the disturbance.

Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial neural networks [14] are biologically inspired; that is, they are composed of elements that perform in a manner that is analogous to the most elementary functions of biological neuron. The artificial neural networks are organized in a way that may be related to the anatomy of the brain. Despite this superficial resemblance, an artificial neural network exhibits a surprising number of brain's characteristics. For example: they learn from experience, generalize from previous example to new one, and abstract characteristics from inputs containing irrelevant data. The key attributes for the application of ANN to Power System as:

* Power system may need to be repeatedly solved in the hour to hour operation and control of power systems. The frequency of solution depends on the operational sophistication of the particular utility.

* Conventional solution techniques may be computationally intensive and time consuming. They may use up excessive time on the EMS computers resulting in high computational cost.

* Explicit mathematical modeling may not be feasible due either to the complexity or to the lack of available information regarding the problem.

* Available knowledge may not be in a functional form, but rather in the form of historical input/output examples.

* Operating conditions could be noisy.

Artificial neural network is massive interconnection of neurons. Basically the artificial neural networks can be of two types. They are

* Layered artificial neural networks.

* Homogeneous artificial neural networks.

In a layered model the neurons are arranged in layers and the neurons receive information from the neurons of the previous layer and give the information to the neurons of the next year. In this type of network the neurons of the same layer are not connected. The layers can be classified into three groups viz. Input layer, output layer and the hidden layer. The input layer receives external inputs while the output layer provides the output of the system. These layers are the interface of the network with external world.

In homogeneous model, the layer concept is forgotten. Every neuron is connected to every other neuron and inter faced with the external world. Hopfield network is an example of this kind. Artificial neural networks can again classified as

* Feed forward networks

* Feedback networks

Layered network is an example for feed forward network, while Hopfield network is an example of feedback network.

Learning is a process of achieving the required net work computation by determination of two types

* Supervised training

* Unsupervised training

Supervised Training

Supervised training requires the pairing of each input vector with a target vector representing the desired output together these are called a training pair. Unsupervised Training: It is difficult to conceive of a training mechanism in the brain that compares desired and actual outputs. Feeding the processed corrections back through the network. The training set consists solely of input vectors.

Whatever kind of learning process is used, an essential characteristic of any network is its learning rule, which specifies how weights adapt in response to a learning example. Often learning requires supplying a network with many examples for several thousand times. To reduce the computational effort by the conventional method, Back-Propagation Algorithm (BPA) based on Feed forward Neural Network has been utilized to compute the ATC.

Back propagation Algorithm

The back propagation network (BP) is one of the most commonly used types of neural networks. The BP networks are widely used because of their robustness, which allows them to be applied in a wide range of tasks. The Back Propagation is the way of using known input-output pairs of a target function to find the coefficients that make a certain mapping function approximate the target function as closely as possible.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

A back propagation network typically starts out with a random set of weights. The network adjusts its weights each time it sees an input-output pair. Each pair requires two stages: a forward pass and a backward pass. The forward pass involves presenting a sample input to the network and letting activations flow until they reach the output layer. During the backward pass, the network's actual output (from the forward pass) is compared with the target output and error estimates are computed for the output units. The weights connected to the output units can be adjusted in order to reduce those errors. We can then use the error estimates of the output units to derive error estimates for the units in the hidden layers. Finally, errors are propagated back to the connections stemming from the input units.

The back propagation algorithm usually updates its weights incrementally, after seeing each input-output pair. After it has seen all the input-output pairs (and adjusted its weights that many times), we say that one iteration has been completed. Training a back propagation network usually requires much iteration.

A set of weights for a two-layer network that maps inputs onto corresponding outputs.

1. Let [N.sub.i] be the number of units in the input layer, as determined by the length of the training input vectors. Let Nk be the number of units in the output layer. Now, choose [N.sub.j], the number of units in the hidden layer. Weights connecting the input layer to the hidden layer are denoted by [W.sub.ji]. Likewise, weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer are denoted by [W.sub.kj].

2. Initialize the weights in the network. Each weight should be set randomly to a number between -0.1 and 0.1.

3. Choose an input-output pair. Suppose the input vector is [I.sub.i] and the target output vector is [T.sub.k].

4. Propagate the input vector from the units in the input layer to the units in the hidden layer using the activation function.

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII.] (1)

Where,

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII.]

5. Propagate the activations from the units in the hidden layer to the units in the output layer.

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII.] (2)

Where,

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII.]

6. Compute the errors of the units in the output layer, denoted [[sigma].sub.k]. Errors are based on the network's actual output ([O.sub.k]) and the target ([T.sub.k]).

[[sigma].sub.k] = [O.sub.k] (I-[O.sub.k])(T.sub.k]-[O.sub.k] (3)

7. Compute the errors of the units in the hidden layer, denoted [[sigma],sub.j].

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII.] (4)

8. Adjust the weights between the hidden layer and output layer. The learning rate is denoted by [eta]; [eta] tells us how far to move in the direction of the gradient. A small [eta] will lead to slower learning, but a large [eta] may cause move through weight space that overshoots the solution vector.

[DELTA][W.sub.jk] = [[eta][sigma].sub.k][O.sub.j] (5)

9. Adjust the weights between the input layer and the hidden layer.

[DELTA][W.sub.ij] = [[eta][sigma].sub.k][O.sub.j] (6)

10. Go to step 3 and repeat. When all the input-output pairs have been presented to the network, one iteration has been completed. Repeat steps 3 to 9 for as many iterations as desired.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Problem Formulation

A 1996 report by North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) establishes a framework for determining ATC of the interconnected transmission networks for a commercially viable wholesale market. The report defines ATC principles under which ATC values are to be computed and it permits individual systems, power pools, regions and sub regions to develop their procedure for determining ATC in accordance with these principles. [10] discussed some theoretical aspects of ATC and the problem of its evaluation under open access environment. In order to consider line flow (MW) limits for static AC determination under the system intact, AC power transfer distribution factors is used.

Referring to Fig. 2, a simple interconnected power system can be divided into three kinds of areas: receiving area, sending areas and external areas. "Area" can be defined in an arbitrary fashion. It may be an individual electric system, power pool, control area, sub regions, etc. The objective is to determine the available transfer capability from sending areas to receiving area through the transfer path. The calculation of available transfer capability can be formulated as follows:

Consider a bilateral transaction [t.sub.p] between a seller bus, m and buyer bus, n. Further consider a line, 'l' carrying a part of the transaction power. Let the line be connected between a bus-i and a bus-j. For a change in real power transaction between the above seller and buyer say by [DELTA][t.sub.p] MW, if the change in transmission line quantity ql is * ql, the AC power transfer distribution factors can be defined as:

[(ACPTDF).sub.ql-tp] = [DELTA][q.sub.1]/[DELTA][t.sub.p] (7)

In this paper, the transmission quantity [q.sub.1] is taken as real power flow from bus-i to bus-j. This can be utilized to compute new values of transmission quantity ql and thus the change in the quantity [DELTA][q.sub.1] from the base case. Once [DELTA][q.sub.1] is known for all the lines is computed at all the buses corresponding to a transaction [DELTA][t.sub.p], the ACPTDFs for each line and buses, respectively, can be obtained from (7).

The above factors have also been calculated for multilateral transactions in which a group of sellers have a bilateral contract with group of buyers. In this paper, a change in the multilateral transaction is assumed to be shared equally by each of the sellers and the buyers. However, the transaction amount can be shared in a predicted ratio in a deregulated market. The mismatch vector for the multilateral transactions will have nonzero entries corresponding to the buyer and seller buses between which the transactions are taking place.

Implementation Algorithm

From the formulation in Section IV, a neural network approach to solve the available transfer capability problem is presented in this section for the system topology and generation availability.

1) Input Vector: Generation status, load level and line status define a specified power system state. Therefore the input vector consists of following three parts:

* Generation status 1--Generator is available 0--Generator is unavailable

* Line status 1--Line is available 0--Line is unavailable

* Load conditions

It is assumed that each bus changes its load at the same rate within the area, but the rate may differ for different areas. The number of input neurons representative of load conditions is equal to the number of system areas. For each area, if the load is equal to base load, the input is 1.0; if the load is 115% of the base load, the input value is 1.15, etc.

For a large power system, since the number of generators and lines is large, it is important to find those critical generators and lines whose unavailability will have the largest effect on available transfer capability. Contingency screening and ranking techniques are used to find those critical generators and lines. Only the status of these elements are taken as inputs, thus the number of input neurons can be reduced, which is advantageous for the training of the neural network.

2) Output Vector: Only one output signal is used here, the available transfer capability between the sending areas and the receiving area.

3) Network Architecture and Training: The complexity of a neural network is characterized by the number of neurons. There is no general rule for selection of these parameters. The critical issue for developing a neural network is generalization.

The neural networks can suffer from either underfitting or overfitting. A neural network with a small number of neurons may not be sufficiently powerful to model a complex function. On the other side, a neural network with too many neurons may lead to overfitting the training sets and lose its ability to generalize which is the main desired characteristic of a neural network. Here, we need to select an optimal number of neurons.

[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]

Test Cases And Results

Test System

For the purpose of testing, the proposed method was applied to a modified IEEE 30-bus system. The modified system includes 6 generators, 21 load buses and 41 transmission lines. Single line diagram of this system is shown in Fig. 3. The system is divided into 3 areas and the available transfer capability to be calculated is from areas 2 to area 1.

Training Patterns of the Neural Network

Training sets provided to the neural network are representative of the whole state space of concern so that the trained neural network has the ability of generalization. We assume only one line is on outage at a time because the outage probability of a line is very small. The outage probabilities of generators are larger than those of transmission lines, so we assume that it is possible for two generators to be on outage at the same time. Training patterns for the IEEE 30-bus system are composed of:

* Load levels for each area from 1% to 195% of base load while all lines and generators remain in operation.

* Generator outages (including one and two generators on outage) at 70%, 105% of the base load of area 1.

* Single line outages at 70%, 105% of the base load of area 1.

* Joint outage (one generator and one line) at 65%, 115% of the base load of area 1.

There are 250 training patterns in total. This may not be an ideal set of training patterns, but it covers the range of load levels and the outage of generators and transmission lines.

Test Patterns of the Neural Network

The trained neural network was tested using 80 test cases which are composed of load variations and generator and line outages. None of these test cases were used in the training of the neural network.

Architecture of the Neural Network

1) Input Layer: The input layer is composed of the neurons which are representative of the load conditions, generator and line status. For this modified IEEE 30-bus system, 3 input neurons are taken to represent the load conditions in each of the 3 areas and 6 neurons are taken for the status of each of the 6 generators. Since there are a total of 41 lines, a line contingency screening technique was used to find those critical lines which have the greatest effect on maximum transfer capability. Here we identified 11 lines as critical: 4-12, 9-10, 10-17, 12-15, 6-9, 2-5, 4-6, 15-18, 2-4, 2-6 and 12-16. Thus 11 input neurons represent the critical line status. The total number of input neurons is thus 20.

2) Output Layer: The output layer has only one neuron here, whose output is the available transfer capability from area 2 to area 1.

3) Data Scaling: Scaling either input or target variables tends to make the training process better behaved by improving the numerical condition of the optimization problem and ensuring that various default values involved in initialization and termination are appropriate. Here in our study, the values of the input vectors are between 0 and 1.5, thus there is no need to scale them. The output vector, which is the value of available transfer capability, varies a lot. Therefore, we scale the output value and make it between 0 and 1.

4) Network Topology: Table I shows the average error at different numbers of iterations for four different neural network topologies. The Table I Average error comparison of four different architectures (err/unit) structure 20/40/1 means that there are 20 input neurons, 40 neurons in the hidden layer and one neuron for output. From Table I, we can see the structure 20/40/1 converges quickly and is more accurate than the others. Hence we have chosen it as the network architecture in our example. Sigmoid transfer functions are used for both the hidden layer and the output layer.

Analysis of Results

The simulation programme is developed by Object oriented programming using C++. Based on the selected training and testing patterns and the chosen neural network topology, the Back propagation algorithm is used to train the neural network.

Table II shows the training and testing statistics for the chosen neural network as applied to the test system.

Tables III.1 - III.3 give the relative error list of ACDF outputs (exact available transfer capability) and neural network output (approximate available transfer capability) for different test cases. Fig. 4 shows graphically the neural network estimates for available transfer capability as compared to exact values as determined from ACDF calculations. The base value in Fig. 4 is 100MW. Relative error is defined as follows:

Relative Error = [absolute value of [b.sub.i] - [a.sub.i]/[a.sub.i] * 100% (8)

[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]

Where, '[a.sub.i]'is the exact value from ACDF and '[b.sub.i]'is the output of Neural Network

Tables III.1-III.3 shows that of the total 90 testing patterns, 44 are between -8% and zero, 41 errors are between 0-5% and 4 cases have errors greater than 5%. The greatest error occurred in case 37(Generator outages with area 1 loads at 105% of the base and area 2 & 3 loads at the base values) where the error is 8.804%. Also from Fig. 4 and Tables III.1-III.3, we can see that for the load variation test cases (cases 190) neural network results are very close to those of ACDF results. This indicates that the neural network can accurately estimate available transfer capabilities for varying load levels.

Similarly, errors are small for test cases 1-30 in which load is varied in one area by considering the loads in the other areas is at base values only were studied. Thus, the neural network can also accurately estimate available transfer capabilities for varying generator or line status. Errors are seen to be larger, though still generally acceptable, in test cases 31-40 where Generator outages with area 1 loads at 105% of the base and area 2 & 3 loads at the base values were studied.

Conclusion

The Available Transfer Capability calculation method proposed in this paper is capable of reflecting variations in load levels and in the status of generation and transmission lines. Using the IEEE 30-bus system, the method is shown to accurately estimate available transfer capabilities between system areas with variations in load levels, in the status of generation, and in the status of lines.

We believe that the proposed BPA method may have important applications in power system operation, planning and reliability assessment. The method would allow a system operator to immediately update available transfer capabilities as loads and the statuses of generation units and transmission lines change. This should enhance the economy and security of a system. Similarly, because the method can very quickly calculate available transfer capabilities than ACDF when system conditions change, the method should be useful in planning and reliability studies where a wide range of system conditions must be considered and evaluated.

Hence, Available Transfer Capability determination using Artificial Neural Network can be used real-time in the deregulated electricity market.

Acknowledgment

The authors would like to thank SACET, Chirala & CVRCE, Hyderabad for providing the Computer lab facility with necessary softwares and support during the work also thank to the JNTUCE, Hyderabad for providing the necessary facilities.

References

[1] Ian Dobson, Scott Greene, Rajesh Raja Raman, Christopher L. DeMarco, Fernando L. Alvarado, Mevludin Glavic, Jianfeng Zhang, Ray Zimmerman, "Electric Power Transfer Capability: Concepts, Applications, Sensitivity and Uncertainty", PSERC Publication 01-34 November 2001.

[2] Richard D. Christie, Bruce F. Wollenberg and Ivar Wangensteen, Transmission Management in the Deregulated Environment, Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol.88, No.2, pp. 170-195, February 2000.

[3] North American Electric Reliability Council, "Available Transfer Capability Definitions and Determination", NERC June 1996

[4] G. Hamoud, "Assessment of Available Transfer Capability of Transmission systems", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol.15, No.1, pp. 27-31, February 2000.

[5] Ashwan Kumar, S. C. Srivastava and S.N. Singh, "Available Transfer Capability Determination in a Competitive Electricity Market using A.C. Distribution Factors ", pp. 99 to 112.

[6] IEEE Reliability Test System, " A report prepared by the Reliability Test System task force of the applications of probability methods subcommittee", IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-98, No.6, pp. 2047-2054, Nov/Dec. 1979.

[7] G.C. Ejebe, J. Tong, J.G. Waight, J.G. Frame, X. Wang, and W.F. Tinney, " Available Transfer Capability Calculations", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol.13, No.4, pp. 1521- 1527, November 1998.

[8] G.C. Ejebe, J. C. Waight et al, "Fast Determination of Linear Available Transfer Capability", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol.15, No.3, pp. 1112-1116, August 2000.

[9] G. Sombuttwilailert and B. Eug. Arporn, "Iterative Linear Estimation for Total Transfer Capability evaluation", IEEE summer meeting- Vancouver, pp. 11271132, July 2000.

[10] M. D. Illic, T.Y. Yong and A. Zobian, "Available Transfer Capability (ATC) and its value under open access", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol.12, No.2, pp. 634-645, May 1997.

[11] X.Luo, A.D.Patton, and C.Singh, "Real Power transfer capability calculations using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks," IEEE Trans. Power Systems, Vol.15, No.2, May 2000, pp. 903-908.

[12] T. S. Dillon and D. Niebur, Neural Networks Applications in Power Systems. London: CRL Publishing Ltd, 1996.

[13] S. E. Fahiman, "An Empirical Study of Learning Speed in Back-Propagation Networks," Carnegie-Mellon University, Computer Science, Tech Report CMU-CS-88-162, Sept. 1988.

[14] L. Fausett, Fundamentals of Neural Networks: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1994.

[15] ftp://ftp.sas.com/pub/neural/

(1) K. Narasimha Rao, (2) K. Kiran Kumar, (3) J. Amarnath and (4) S. Kamakshaiah

(1) Research Scholar in Dept of EEE at JNT University, Hyderabad, India. Professor with St. Ann's College of Engineering & Technology, Chirala, AP, India E-mail: raosimha_k@yahoo.co.in

(2) C.V.R College of Engineering & Technology, Hyderabad, AP; India

(3) Professor in Electrical & Electronics Engineering department, JNTU, Hyderabad, AP, India. E-mail: amarnathjinka@yahoo.com

(4) Professor and Head of EEE in CVR college of Engineering & Technology.
Table1 : Average Error Comparison Of Four Different Architectures
(Err/Unit)

NN              No of                No of                No of
struc-      iteration:5000       iteration:15000      iteration:30000
ture
          Training   Testing   Training   Testing   Training   Testing

20/25/1   0.03057    0.08408   0.01233    0.0339    0.01842    0.05000
20/30/1   0.02820    0.07756   0.01456    0.0400    0.00227    0.00620
20/35/1   0.03389    0.09320   0.02207    0.0721    0.01290    0.03547
20/40/1   0.01287    0.03541   0.01238    0.0340    0.00672    0.01848

Table 2 : Neural Network Statistics

Input neurons             20
Output neurons            1
Neurons in hidden layer   40
Training patterns         250
Testing patterns          90
Eta                       0.55
convergence               0.01
Total iteration number    40000
Training (error/unit)     0.00449
Testing (error/unit)      0.001615

Table 3(i) : Relative Error List Of Load Variation Test Cases

Case   relative   Case   relative   Case   relative   Case   relative
       error %           error %           error %           error %

1      -1.29189   9      -1.72056   17     0.63063    25     -1.40288
2      1.90086    10     1.54801    18     0.73853    26     0.32665
3      7.362      11     0.41169    19     -0.28290   27     -0.27119
4      0.50910    12     0.84702    20     0.84698    28     -0.64453
5      0.85003    13     0.82574    21     -0.46663   29     -2.39384
6      -0.71519   14     -2.13149   22     -0.84833   30     -0.32959
7      0.30386    15     0.37581    23     0.90943
8      -1.08699   16     0.15643    24     1.31597

Case 1-10: Area 1 loads vary while area 2 & 3 loads are constant at
the base values

Case 11-20: Area 2 loads vary while area 1 & 3 loads are constant at
the base values

Case 21-30: Area 3 loads vary while area 1 & 2 loads are constant at
the base values

Table 3(ii) : Relative Error List Of Single Outage Test Cases

Case   relative   Case   relative   Case   relative   Case   relative
       error %           error %           error %           error %

31     7.96       41     -1.90187   51     -0.04600   61     -0.34328
32     1.52204    42     1.039      52     -0.02131   62     -0.60699
33     1.37074    43     0.10675    53     0.41292    63     -0.47116
34     -5.47458   44     0.02227    54     -0.19772   64     -0.43943
35     -4.039     45     -1.23527   55     1.13655    65     0.62891
36     6.73350    46     0.02807    56     -1.3205    66     -0.33312
37     8.804      47     0.03211    57     -0.44200   67     -0.61092
38     -1.83452   48     0.02690    58     -2.13006   68     -0.57351
39     -6.201     49     -0.96735   59     1.26520    69     -0.63450
40     1.37074    50     0.35056    60     0.61838    70     -0.47116

Case 31-40: Generator outages with area 1 loads at 105% of the base
and area 2 & 3 loads at the base values

Case 41-50: Line outages with area 1 loads at 105% of the base and
area 2 & 3 loads at the base values

Case 51-60: Generator outages with area 1 loads at 70% of the base
and area 2 & 3 loads at the base values

Case 61-70: Line outages with area 1 loads at 70% of the base and
area 2 & 3 loads at the base values

Table 3(iii) : Relative Error List Of Joint Outage Test Cases

Case   Relative   Case   Relative   Case   Relative   Case   Relative
       error %           error %           error             error %

71     0.447      76     0.78450    81     -2.19993   86     -3.02652
72     -1.65      77     0.15066    82     2.77320    87     2.24160
73     0.437      78     1.082      83     -1.50291   88     0.62060
74     -0.12440   79     3.634      84     -0.97840   89     1.16525
75     -0.643     80     -0.22719   85     1.12066    90     -0.26645

Case 71-80: Joint outrages with area 1 loads at 115% of the base
and area 1 & 3 loads at the base values

Case 81-90: Joint outrages with area 1 loads at 65% of the base
and area 1 & 3 loads at the base values
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