Serbia and Russia on the demographic map of Europe two decades after the fall of communism.
Obradovic, Suzana Lovic ; Babovic, Stefana ; Shpak, Natalia 等
1. Introduction
The analysed and presented cartographic data on total fertility
rates, birth rates, life expectancy, the percentage share of over 65
year olds, the infant mortality rates and adolescent-specific fertility
rates from 2011 are the image of an aging European population with
higher values of life expectancy, the number of which decreases, based
on the natural movement. The epithet Old Continent can now rightfully
refer to Europe even from the standpoint of the population, i.e. its
average age. Unfavourable economic situation, linked to the transition
from the state to a market economy, respectively the privatization of
state enterprises, after the fall of communism, had a significant
influence on the unfavourable demographic situation.
The data for Serbia were obtained from the Statistical Office, for
Russia from the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics,
and for other European countries from the following sites:
www.ined.fr,http://data.worldbank.org, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu,
http://knoema.com/atlas. The aim of this paper is to point out the
differences of demographic trends in former communist countries Serbia
and Russia compared with other European countries with different
political systems, in 2011. The demographic trends in other former
communist countries (all former Yugoslav and Soviet republics) were
similar. The fall of communism has affected all spheres of life of the
inhabitants of the former communist states, but without doubt that
influence, even after two decades, is reflected in the shaping of
contemporary demographic trends.
The total fertility rate in only three European countries has a
value that is higher than 2.1[per thousand], that is, the expanded
reproduction of the population is provided only in Turkey, Ireland and
Iceland, while the lowest value of 1.21[per thousand] was recorded in
Hungary. The same complicated situation we can see in Russia, where this
rate is 1.5%. Natural population growth is negative in 16 European
countries. Life expectancy has increased in all countries, with
significant difference between Western and Eastern Europe. The
increasing share of population older than 65 years is present in most
countries of Europe. The fertility of the youngest fertile contingent of
15 to 19 years has declined due to change in the age birth model and
increase in the average age of women at first birth. Infant mortality
rates also decline in most countries, thanks to the improvement and
advancement of health protection.
While on the one hand, in most countries, an increase is recorded
in life expectancy and the share of the elderly, on the other hand, the
decrease is recorded in total fertility rates, the decline in natural
population growth and fertility of female adolescents and infant
mortality rates. These processes have influenced the change in the
demographic image of Europe, with significant differences at the country
level, according to the economic, ecological, cultural, religious and
other influences.
Demographic trends in Serbia, as one of the former Yugoslav
republics, do not lag behind Europe. Serbia has recently recorded a
constant population decline, and comparing the data from the 2011 census
with previous census in 2002, a town of 311 139 inhabitants disappeared.
The total fertility rate is 1.41, which is insufficient for the expanded
reproduction of the population. With the reduction in fertility, an
increase in the share of the population older than 65 years is recorded,
as well as an increase in life expectancy. In this sense, there is a
change in the balance of the old and the number of the active population
and the increasing burden on the social fund. The fertility rate of
adolescent girls in Serbia has a downward trend, as well as the infant
mortality rates.
The modern situation in Russia, as one of the former Soviet
republics, is connected with two main current trends: stable increase of
the level of birth rate and migration of foreign population. The number
of resident population of the Russian Federation in 2014 was about 143.7
million people, from which more than 70% live in cities and about 30% in
villages. The growth of the Russian population has been observed since
2009 and it developed both at the expense of significantly decreased
natural losses, and as a result of the increased migratory flow.
2. Demographic indicators
2.1. Total fertility rates
Determination of the total fertility rate (TFR) is of great
importance not only for determining the direction of motion of
demographic trends, but it has application in the practical sense, that
is, in determining the measures of population policy of a certain area
or country. The total fertility rate as an indicator shows the potential
of change in specific population in terms of a decrease or increase of
the population, as well as the tendency of change in the average age of
the population.
According to data for 2011 for Europe, the total fertility rates
ranged from 1.2 in Hungary to 2.1 in Turkey, Ireland and Iceland. In
almost all European countries TFR is below the level necessary for
population replacement (2.1), except in the three mentioned states,
while nine countries have TFR below 1.5, i.e. the value that McDonald
called "low fertility trap" (Kupiszewski et al. 2010).
"In most European countries the total fertility rate values dropped
below the level needed for the reconstruction of the 70s and 80s of the
20th century" (Sobotka 2004).
The region of Northern and Western Europe is singled out as area
with higher rates of fertility, where rates are higher than 1.8, while
most of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are characterized by
values ranging from 1.2 to 1.5, except in Lithuania where the value is
1.8. Southern Europe is also characterized by lower total fertility
rates (1.4 in Italy, 1.4 in Greece).
Many authors agree that the increasing unemployment of women has
been the main cause of the fertility fall (Adsera 2005, Sobotka et al.
2011, Andersen and Ozcan 2012). In addition, there are numerous theories
on fertility, such as the theory of the impact of socio-economic factors
according to which a child is an expense (food, clothing, education,
etc.), while to others the main factors of reducing the total fertility
rate are the following: economic growth and increase of income, the
decay rate of marriages and an increase in the share of cohabitation and
the like. Reducing the total fertility rate carries with it a series of
consequences, such as population ageing and a reduction in the
workforce, because of the numerically smaller influx of population in
the working contingent.
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
The total fertility rate in Serbia in 2011 was 1.4 live birth
children per woman, which is insufficient for the expanded reproduction
of the population. The publication "The Municipalities of the
Republic of Serbia, the Main Demographic, Economic and Social Indicators
Relevant to Population Policy", by Miijana Rasevic and Goran Penev,
gives the average values of the total fertility rate data at the
municipal level, for three-year periods 1990-1992, 2001-2003 and
2006-2008. In the first three years TFRs have recorded a continuous
decline and on the level of the republic were: 1.72 in the first period,
1.58 in the second and 1.40 in the third. Observed by districts, in the
first three years the City of Belgrade had the lowest TFR value of 1.54,
the Pcinj District had the highest one of 2.55, in the second, the Pirot
District had the lowest value of 1.35, the Pcinj District also had the
highest one of 2:33 and in the third period the Zapadnobacki District
had the lowest value of 1.24 and the Raska District had the highest
value of 1.89. At the same time, in the last period 2006-2008, the
fertility rate was not recorded in any district, necessary to ensure
replacement (Rasevic, Penev 2009).
In neighbouring countries, the total fertility rates are also
low--1.3 in Bosnia, 1.41 in Macedonia, 1.5 in Croatia, etc. The war in
Bosnia and Herzegovina, low socio-economic situation, massive migrations
of young people have caused the low total fertility rate. The result is
the depopulation with great demographic, economic and social
consequences.
Russia in 2011 was on the verge of "low fertility trap"
with a total fertility rate of 1.5. Measures to increase the birth rate
were adopted in 1980, but the effect lasted only seven years, after
which it decreased. Then the fertility rate was 1.9 children per woman,
which was not enough for simple reproduction. New measures to improve
population policy were adopted in 2007. The total fertility rate
increased from 1.3 (2006) to 1.57 (2010) (Frejka and Zakharov 2012). The
number of born children per 1000 people of population increase in Russia
every year from 9.8% in 2000 till 14.5% in 2013. So a slight increase in
the total fertility rate is positive, but still not enough for such a
big territory of the country and in the coming years it will be seen
whether the new measures have achieved the goal.
2.2. Birth rates
The population growth is a demographic indicator of the increase,
that is, a decrease of population in a certain area, depending on
whether the specified value is positive or negative. The population
growth values are influenced by not only the number of births and
deaths, but also by a number of specific factors that affect the natural
movement of the population. Thus, the increased number of marriages or
divorces affects indirectly the increased or decreased number of births.
Also, throughout history, the emergence of certain diseases resulted in
higher mortality, while finding cures and improving health care resulted
in the decrease. The population growth as a result of these two
components has varied over time in accordance with their changes.
The values of the population growth rates ranged from -5.67[per
thousand] in Ukraine to 11[per thousand] in Turkey. Negative population
growth values were recorded in 15 countries, indicating an insufficient
number of births. All the countries of Eastern Europe have a negative
sign of the population growth values, the countries of northern and
western Europe have positive population growth values, while the
countries of central and southern Europe in terms of population growth
values represent a mosaic, a combination of positive and negative
values.
Turkey, as a country with the highest population growth value is in
confessional terms a homogeneous country dominated by the Muslim
population (99.8%) with dominant views on pro-birth rate policy.
Ukraine, as a former state of the Soviet Union, during its breakup
experienced economic collapse, which among other things brought about
the abolition of a number of incentives for raising children, which led
to a decrease in fertility. With a mortality rate of 10.5[per thousand],
Ukraine ranks first in Europe. Per 100,000 people, there are more than
1,000 deaths from cardiovascular diseases (Marinkovic 2012). At the same
time, the low birth rate of -16.1[per thousand] causes the lowest
negative population growth in Europe. Population growth rate in Russia
was negative (-3.58[per thousand]) in 2011 as well as in the rest of
Eastern Europe.
Data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, based on
the 2011 census, show that the population growth rate is positive in
Serbia only in seven municipalities, Belgrade--Grocka, Novi Sad,
Sjenica, Novi Pazar-town, Tutin, Bujanovac and Presevo, while
Belgrade's municipality Zvezdara has zero natural growth. Moreover,
in four municipalities, Novi Pazar-town, Tutin, Bujanovac and Presevo,
the mortality rate is at the lowest level in the state. The result is
the lowest average age of the population in these municipalities. A
characteristic of these municipalities is that the population of Muslim
denomination predominates. On the other side, the lowest birth rates are
in Gadzin Han (3.7[per thousand]), Rekovac (4[per thousand]), Svrljig
(4.1[per thousand]), and the highest mortality rates are in Crna Trava
(35.7[per thousand]), Babusnica (28.6[per thousand]), Rekovac (26.8[per
thousand]), Svrljig (26.1[per thousand]), etc. The listed municipalities
are the most pronounced depopulating areas in Serbia. With the lack of
natural regeneration of the population and expressed migration, the
disappearing and extinction of many villages is going to happen in the
not too distant future. That the situation in the country is alarming
shows the fact that not a single child was born in 1.458 villages, while
82.5% of the villages had a negative population growth (RSO).
Russia, in comparison with other countries, has middle value of
this rate--13.3[per thousand]. But it is also very different in
different regions of the country. The highest birth rate is in the south
of the country and the lowest one at the western regions. Also in Russia
the ratio between man and woman at the birth is rather steady. In Russia
on each 100 newborn girls there are registered 105-106 newborn boys.
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
2.3. Life expectancy at birth day
Life expectancy at birth day ([e.sup.o]) "represents the
number of years a live-born child can expect to live, provided that the
distribution of deaths by age does not change but is the same as the
time when the tables are created. This ratio is independent of the age
structure of the population and may serve as an indicator of
socio-economic development of a country and the health status of the
population. [E.sup.o] is a biometric function that is obtained from the
mortality tables. Given that the life expectancy is a synthetic
indicator of mortality and reflects the mortality at all ages of life,
it is also used in comparative analyses of mortality" (Devedzic
2006).
On the map of Europe, shades of the same colour show the range of
life expectancy in European countries, from the lowest value of 68.5
years, which is the life expectancy in Ukraine to 82.3 years in
Switzerland. In this regard, lighter shades indicate lower values, while
the darker shades refer to higher ones. The countries for which there
are no data are represented in grey. Looking from west of Europe to
east, darker shades are gradually replaced by lighter ones. Northern,
north-western, western, south-western, southern and western part of
central Europe are characterized by higher values of life expectancy
that range from 79.5 years in Portugal to 82.3 years in Switzerland.
Countries belonging to this block are characterized by a higher level of
socio-economic development in relation to the countries in which the
values of life expectancy are lower.
Besides having the lowest value of population growth, Ukraine has
the lowest value of life expectancy at birth day of 68.5, which is 13.8
years less than in Switzerland. Life expectancy in Serbia is 73.7
years--76.8 years for women, 71.6 years for men (Statistical Office).
Observed since 1950, life expectancy in Serbia continued to grow. Thus
in 1950, the life expectancy for women was 57.9, that is 54.4 for men.
"The period of the 70s was characterized by a slower rise of
[e.sup.o], followed by a stagnation of this indicator during the 80s. In
the next decade, a decline in life expectancy followed, especially for
men, because of the wars and the collapse of the socio-economic system.
These negative trends reversed positive in the last decade"
(Kupiszewski et al. 2012).
[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]
The continuous growth was influenced by two important factors: the
improved living standards and improving health systems. "The
initial reason for the extension of the average life expectancy is
reduction of the mortality of infants, children and young population on
the basis of which all countries have experienced a significant
increase" (Devedzic 2006). The residents of Japan are the
longest-lived, where the medium life expectancy for men is 79 years and
for women even 86 years. Thus, the female Japanese have been on the top
of the longest-lived in the world for 25 years in a row.
Life expectancy in Russia was 68.8 in 2011. The situation is much
more favourable than 60 years ago, when in 1950, male life expectancy
was 57 years, and women 71 years. According to data from 2011, the life
expectancy for men is 64.3 and women 76.1 years. The listed causes of
death in the last 20 years are heart diseases and external causes
including accidents (70% of total mortality), whereof even 3.2 million
is on traffic accidents, murders, suicides and alcohol poisoning
(Denisenko 2012). Life expectancy varies by regions, and in Moscow it
coincides with a trend of Eastern Europe, while in the Republic of Tyva
it is in line with the trend of underdeveloped African countries. The
aim was to reach the life expectancy of 70 years by 2016, but that
number has already been reached in 2011, so further plans are
optimistic.
2.4. The share of population older than 65 years
Demographic ageing is "a consequence of long-term decline in
fertility rates and its keeping low, and then aided by significant
prolongation of the average life expectancy, especially in developed
countries where mortality is declining and in the older population,
which accelerated the process of demographic aging from the top of the
age pyramid" (Radivojevic and Nikitovic 2010).
The dominance of darker shades on the map shows that population
ageing is a phenomenon that is observed in almost all European
countries, regardless of their level of development. According to data
from 2011, among European populations, Germany has the largest share of
elderly over 65 years; even 20.7% of the population, i.e. more than 1/5
of the population of Germany is over 65 years of age. On the demographic
map of Europe, the following countries belong to a group of the oldest:
Italy (20.3%), Greece (19.3%), Portugal (19.1%), Sweden (18.5%), etc. On
the other hand, these countries have the smallest share of population
over 65 years of age: Turkey (only 6.2%), Albania (9%), Ireland (11.5%),
Macedonia (11.7%), etc. The ageing process is mostly recorded in
low-fertility areas, in most European countries the population is
ageing.
The reasons affecting the ageing population of Europe vary from
country to country, but the consequences are almost the same in each of
them. Low fertility rate and the extension of life expectancy are given
as the main causes of ageing, while the consequences are an increasing
share of the elderly in the total population and the irrational ratio of
the old and the active population.
According to the share of the old, Serbia is classified in one of
the oldest states not only in Europe, but also in the world. "More
than 950,000 persons in central Serbia and about 300,000 persons in
Vojvodina, that is, one sixth of both populations, are 65 years and
over" (Rasevic 2010). At the same time, the number is increasing
from year to year, while the share of young is smaller, with a downward
trend. According to 2011 data, 17% of Serbia's population is older
than 65 years. Municipalities in Serbia with the highest average age
are: Crna Trava, Gadzin Han and Svrljig, and municipalities with the
lowest share of old age population are: Tutin, Novi Pazar and Sjenica
(RSO). "The current age structure of the population of Serbia was
formed under the direct influence of fertility, mortality and
migrations, but also under the strong influence of inherited age
composition, that is, under the influence of demographic inertia"
(Stojilkovic 2011).
A similar scenario is expected in the future. "According to
the latest revision of projections of the Republic Statistical Office of
Serbia (RSOS 2011), the share of the older population in the overall
share will increase in Serbia in all forms, from 16.9% in 2010 to over
20% in 2050" (Zdravkovic et al. 2012). The characteristics of the
ageing population in Serbia are that this process takes place from the
top of the age pyramid. The consequences are much greater numbers of old
compared to young and active population, the burden of the social fund,
an increasing number of old, poor people but also the problem of
introducing the older population in society.
[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]
According to data from 2011, in Russia 13% of the population is
older than 65 years. One of the causes of this situation is the low
fertility rate and reducing mortality rate. Another group of factors
included war and socio-economic shocks that befell Russia in the 20th
century. It is believed that in 2025, each fourth resident will have
more than 65 years. Unlike developed countries that will age from
"above" because the life expectancy is elevated, in Russia
this process will run from the "bottom" due to low birth
rates.
2.5. Fertility rates of fertile contingent aged 15-19
"From a demographic standpoint, the group of adolescents aged
15 to 19 years is a significant group of the population and future
demographic trends depend on their reproductive health and
behaviour" (Stankovic 2000). Pregnancy of adolescent girls, often
unplanned, can cause a number of consequences on the mother and the
child. Mothers are still insufficiently matured psychologically,
developed physically, hurt socially and because of child care often
forced to leave school and thus reduce the chance of later employment.
As for the child, there is a danger of a temporary birth, low body
weight, even subsequent risks of developing disorders. Therefore, it is
necessary to implement a comprehensive policy that would lead to a
reduction of these risks.
Data on the specific fertility rates of the youngest group of
fertile contingent of 15 to 19 year olds for Europe show large
differences in the lowest and highest values. Mapped values of
adolescent fertility rates show a great homogeneity of the region of
Europe. Most countries of the former Soviet Union are characterized by
higher adolescent fertility rates, while on the other side, the
countries of northern, central, southern and western Europe, except
Great Britain (30[per thousand],), have low adolescent fertility rate.
The lowest adolescent fertility rates were recorded in the Netherlands
and Switzerland and amounted to 4[per thousand], while the highest value
of 38[per thousand] was recorded in Bulgaria, which is almost ten times
higher compared to the lowest value. "Large differences in
tradition, cultural values and moral standards, economic development,
national structure, fiscal and social policies of the European countries
are reflected in the fact that the value of the highest rate is
generally ten times higher than the lowest" (Stankovic and Penev
2012).
[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]
The Netherlands is the country with the lowest rate of abortions
among adolescent girls. In addition, low fertility rates may be the
consequence of the relatively free attitudes of the early entry into
sexual relationships and educating teenagers on the application of
contraceptives. According to van Loost who emphasizes the role of
cultural and contextual factors, "the Netherlands compared to Great
Britain is to a greater extent a traditional society with a developed
family structure and family solidarity, greater involvement of parents
in planning and defining the school curriculum, lower prevalence of
single-parent families and less present culture of poverty"
(Stankovic and Penev 2012).
On the other hand, Bulgaria is faced with the highest adolescent
fertility rate. The reason is that the modern methods of contraception
are relatively unknown to adolescents. Only a small number of the
adolescents use some form of contraception in the form of contraceptives
that are available in stores and pharmacies.
In the Republic of Serbia, according to the 2011 census, of 195 026
women aged 15 to 19 years, 5.129 children were born, whereof 2.686
illegitimately and 2.226 legitimately (RSO 2011). The total figure is
two times lower than the number of births in 1990, when 11.457 babies
were born. Specific fertility rate is 20.02[per thousand], which is
significantly higher than the European average. The tendency to reduce
the number of births is important primarily because of the preservation
and improvement of the reproductive health of adolescent girls.
The fertility rate of adolescent girls in the Russian Federation
was 25[per thousand] in 2011. This rate is among the highest in Europe,
but the result is stagnation. Namely, in 1980 for adolescents aged 15-19
years, fertility rate was even 43.8[per thousand], it was 55[per
thousand] ten years after and since then has steadily decreased. In the
period 1999-2008, this demographic indicator ranged 27.3 and 29.3[per
thousand]. The number of children who were born in illegitimate unions
decreases at mothers between 20 and 34 years of age, while the number
remains the same or increases in other age groups. For the age group
15-19 years, the proportion of children born in illegitimate unions was
18.7% 34 years ago, reached a peak in 2005 (48.4%), and was 47.4% in
2011 (Visnevskij 2013).
2.6. Infant mortality rates
One of the most important indicators of a society transition is a
decline in infant mortality rates, and in post-communist countries
Serbia and Russia these are lower than in communist era. Data from 2011
showed that the infant mortality has been a major problem in many
countries, particularly the eastern European ones. Specific mortality
rates are the highest in Albania (16[per thousand]), Turkey (13[per
thousand]), Romania (11[per thousand]), Bulgaria (11[per thousand]),
Russia (9[per thousand]), etc. In Albania, which is at the bottom of the
European scale, the infant mortality rates are particularly high in
rural areas, which are caused by the lack of sufficient number of health
care institutions, the use of traditional medicine and the domination of
the population with low levels of education.
On the other hand, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and Sweden
have the lowest infant mortality rates, only 2 per 1,000 births. In
addition to Finland, according to data from 2011, which is one of six
European countries with the lowest mortality rate of children aged up to
one year, no maternal death was recorded in the same year (Statistics
Finland 2011).
In comparison with the European average, the infant mortality rate
is still relatively high in Serbia. According to the 2011 census, a
total of 414 infants died in Serbia. Observing by districts, the highest
value was recorded in the Rasinski District (the municipalities of
Aleksandrovac, Brus, Varvarin, Krusevac-town, Trstenik and Cicevac),
9.9[per thousand], and the lowest value was 2.9[per thousand] in the
Zapadnobacki District (the municipalities of Apatin, Kula, Odzaci and
Sombor-town). The mortality rate at the republican level is 6.3[per
thousand]. Compared to the developed countries of Europe it is a high
value, which "points to the need for better preventive measures,
especially in relation to infant mortality and other adverse pregnancy
outcomes, as the key indicators of health and health care of mother and
child" (Milankovic 1998).
The infant mortality rate in 2011 in Russia was 7.3[per thousand].
In Europe, six countries are characterized by a higher rate than Russia
and they are: Albania, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Macedonia.
Latvia and Slovakia have approximately the same mortality rate as
Russia. The lowest infant mortality rate in Russia was recorded in 2011
in the North-Western Federal District (5.4[per thousand]), and the
highest one in the North-Caucasian Federal District (12.9[per
thousand]). Observing by districts, the lowest rate is in Tambovskaja
area (4.1[per thousand]), which belongs to the Central Federal District,
and the highest rate is characterized by Chechen Republic (17.5[per
thousand]) in the North-Caucasian Federal District.
[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]
3. Conclusion
Most European countries in 2011 shared a similar fate in terms of
demographic processes. The dominant processes in the developed countries
of Northern, Western and Southern Europe are reducing fertility rates,
increasing life expectancy and as a result of these two processes, an
increasing share of the population older than 65 years. On the other
hand, in underdeveloped countries (Albania) and countries with majority
Muslim populations (Turkey), an increase in population is recorded,
despite high rates of infant mortality. The difference between these two
groups of countries is also reflected in the age pattern of fertility;
in developed countries the average age of mothers at birth is
significantly higher than in the less developed countries, so that the
fertility rates of women of the youngest fertile contingent are ten
times less than in the other group of countries.
The demographic picture of Serbia is characterized by depopulation
processes due to the reduced fertility rates, increasing life
expectancy, as well as the share of population older than 65 years. The
fertility rate of the youngest fertile contingent is higher than the
European average, as well as the rate of infant mortality, but
significantly lower in relation to the values from previous years.
The Russian demographic situation is characterized by depopulation
processes like in Serbia. It is due to the economic process which
started in transition economics in 1995. But the reduced fertility rate
is compensated by the migration of population from CIS countries by
economic reasons. Also till now the share of elderly 65+ (in %) in
Russia is not so big as in EU countries and together with improvements
in medicine services it has a positive influence on the prospects of
population growth. On the other hand, the adolescent fertility rate in
Russia is one of the highest in Europe and can be compared with Great
Britain, which also argues for improvement of the demographic situation
in Russia in the future.
The different demographic patterns in former communist and other
European countries show the significant role of political factors in
shaping of demographic pictures of one country. In case of Serbia and
Russia, that impact was negative, and the final result of that influence
is depopulation.
Acknowledgements
This paper is a part of the project 47007 III, grant of Ministry of
Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of
Serbia.
Addresses:
Suzana Lovic Obradovic
Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijic"
Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts
Dure Jaksica 9
11000 Belgrade, Serbia
E-mail: s.lovic@gi.sanu.ac.rs
Stefana Babovic
Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijic"
Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts
Dure Jaksica 9
11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Natalia Shpak
Ural Federal University
Ul. Mira, 19
620002 Yekaterinburg
Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia
References
Adsera, A. (2004) "Vanishing children: from high unemployment
to low fertility in Developed countries". Education and Health of
Women and Children 95, 2, 189-193.
Andersen, S. and B. Ozcan (2012) "The effects of unemployment
on fertility". Available online at
<ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=4547&langId=en>.
Accessed on 10.07.2015.
Hoorens. S, J. Clift, L. Staetsky, B. Janta , S. Diepeveen,
M.Morgan Jones, and J. Grant (2011) Low fertility in Europe: is there
still reason to worry? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Available
online at <http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG1080>. Accessed
on 09.07.2015.
Kupiszewski, M., D. Kupisyewska, and V. Nikitovic (2012) The impact
of demographic and migration flows in Serbia. [In Serbian.]
International Organization for Migration, CBMM Project.
Marinkovic, I. (2010) "Classifying countries according to
leading causes of death in the world at the beginning of the 21st
century". [In Serbian.] Stanovnistvo 1, 75-101.
Milankovic, J. (1998) "Infant mortality according to causes of
death" [In Serbian.] Stanovnistvo 36, 1-2, 105-124.
Murray, D. (2012) Germany's aging population, society, culture
& politics program. Available online at
<http://www.aicgs.org/2012/11/germanys-aging-population/>.
Accsessed on 9.7.2015.
Radivojevic, B. and V. Nikitovic (2010) "Sustainability of the
workforce in terms of intense demographic aging". [In Serbian.]
ZbornikMatice srpske za drustvene nauke 131, 455-464.
Rasevic, M. and Penev, G. (2009) Municipalities of the Republic of
Serbia, the main demographic, economic and social indicators relevant to
population policy. [In Serbian.] Beograd: Drustvo demografa Srbije.
Rasevic, M. (2010) "About aging and age in Serbia". [In
Serbian.] Zbornik Matice srpske za drustvene nauke 131, 199-209.
Stankovic, B. (2000) "Tendencies of adolescent fertility in
low fertility population areas of Serbia" [In Serbian.] Zbornik
Matice srpske za drustvene nauke 109, 195-204.
Stankovic, B. and G. Penev (2012) "Birth in adolescence".
[In Serbian.] Socijalna misao, 19 3, 149161.
Sobotka, T. (2004) "Is lowest-low fertility in Europe
explained by the postponement of childbearing?". Population and
development review 30, 2, 195-220.
Sobotka, T., V. Skirbekk, and D. Philipv (2011) "Economic
recession and fertility in the developed world". Population and
Development Review 37, 267-306.
Stojilkovic, J. (2011) "Growing number of pensioners and
population ageing in Serbia". Journal of the Geographical Institute
"Jovan Cvijic" SASA 61, 2, 69-84.
Zdravkovic, A., Domazet, I. and Nikitovic, V. (2012) "The
impact of demographic aging on the sustainability of public finances in
Serbia". [In Serbian.] Stanovnistvo 50, 1, 19-44.
Internet sources
Eurostat. Available online at
<http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home>. Accessed on 26.2.2015.
Federal'naja sluzba gosudarstvennyj statistiki. Available
online at <http://www.gks.ru/>. Accessed on 26.2.2015.
Hodgson, An (2012) Ukraine's population in rapid decline.
Available online at <http://blog.euromonitor.com/2012/05/ukraines-population-in-rapid-decline.html>. Accessed on 26.2.2015.
Knoema. World data atlas: world and regional statistics, national
data, maps, rankings. Available online at
<http://knoema.com/atlas>. Accessed on 26.2.2015.
L'Institut national d'etudes demographiques (INED).
Available online at <www.ined.fr>. Accessed on 26.2.2015.
Statistics Finland. Causes of death, 2011. Available online at
<http://www.stat.fi/til/ksyyt/2011/ksyyt_2011_2012-12-21_kat_007_en.html>. Accessed on 10.7.2015.
Statistics Finland. Population. Available online at
<https://www.stat.fi/til/vrm_en.html>. Accessed on 26.2.2015.
The World Bank. Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births).
Available online at <http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?display=default>. Accessed on 26.2.2015.
Vital events in the Republic of Serbia in 2011. Available online at
<http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/00/72/39/SN40_srb_2011+bkorekt.pdf>. Accessed on 10.07.2015.
Suzana Lovic Obradovic (1), Stefana Babovic (1), Natalia Shpak (2)
(1) Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijic" Serbian Academy
of Sciences and Arts,
(2) Ural Federal University
Table 1. Demographic indicators based on data from 2011
2011 TFR Population [e.sup.o] at
growth rate live-birth
Serbia 1.57 -1.4 72
Andorra / / /
Albania 1.7 6.59 76.9
Austria 1.4 0.2 78.3
Belarus 1.5 -4.48 70.3
Belgium 1.81 2.3 77.8
B and H 1.3 -0.78 75.7
Bulgaria 1.52 -5.1 70.7
Croatia 1.5 -2.2 73.9
Cyprus 1.5 4.8 79.3
The Czech 1.4 0.2 74.8
Republic
Denmark 1.8 1.2 77.8
Estonia 1.5 -0.4 71.2
Finland 1.8 1.7 77.3
France 1.98 4.2 78.7
Germany 1.42 -2.3 78.4
Greece 1.41 -0.3 78.5
Hungary 1.21 -4.8 71.2
Macedonia 1.46 1.6 73.1
Iceland 2.1 7.9 80.7
Ireland 2.1 10 78.3
Italy 1.41 -0.8 80.1
Latvia 1.3 -4.7 68.6
Liechtenstein 1.7 4 79.5
Lithuania 1.8 -2.2 68.1
Luxembourg 1.5 3.5 78.5
Malta 1.41 2.4 78.6
Montenegro 1.7 2.45 73.4
The Netherlands 1.81 2.7 79.4
Norway 1.94 3.8 79.1
Poland 1.38 0.3 72.6
Portugal 1.41 -0.6 79.5
Romania 1.3 -2.6 71.0
Russia 1.5 -3.58 68.8
Slovakia 1.5 1.7 75.4
Slovenia 1.6 1.6 76.8
Spain 1.41 1.9 79.4
Sweden 1.93 2.3 79.9
Switzerland 1.51 2.4 80.5
Turkey 2.1 11.0 74.4
Ukraine 1.5 -5.67 68.5
Great Britain 1.98 4.1 79.1
2011 Fertility rates Infant Share of elderly
of adolescent mortality 65+ (in %)
girls rates
Serbia 20 6 17
Andorra / 3 /
Albania 16 16 9
Austria 10 3 17.6
Belarus 21 4 14
Belgium 12 3 17.1
B and H 14 6 14
Bulgaria 38 11 18.5
Croatia 13 4 17.2
Cyprus 6 3 12.7
The Czech 10 3 15.6
Republic
Denmark 5 3 16.8
Estonia 18 3 17
Finland 9 2 17.5
France 6 3 16.7
Germany 7 3 20.7
Greece 10 4 19.3
Hungary 14 6 16.7
Macedonia 19 8 11.7
Iceland 12 2 12.3
Ireland 11 3 11.5
Italy 5 3 20.3
Latvia 14 7 18.4
Liechtenstein / 2 13.9
Lithuania 17 5 17.9
Luxembourg 9 2 13.9
Malta 13 5 15.7
Montenegro 15 6 12.8
The Netherlands 4 3 15.6
Norway 8 2 15.1
Poland 13 5 13.5
Portugal 13 3 19.1
Romania 29 11 14.9
Russia 25 7 13
Slovakia 17 7 12.6
Slovenia 5 3 16.5
Spain 11 4 17.1
Sweden 6 2 18.5
Switzerland 4 4 17
Turkey 32 13 6.2
Ukraine 27 10 16
Great Britain 30 4 16.6
