Conflict in the world and a world in conflict: the Clash of ideas and interests in the contemporary world.

Cerny, Karel

Jiri Tomes, David Festa, Josef Novotny a kol. Praha, Nakladatelstvi P3K, 2007, 349 pages

What does a postmodern war look like? Have we witnessed greater or fewer armed conflicts since the end of the Cold War? What are their causes and characteristics--and in what ways do they differ from the blood that was spilt in the days of the bipolar world? Jii Tomes, geopolitical expert from Karlovy University and author of the book Conflict in the World and a World in Conflict: The Clash between Ideas and Interests in the Contemporary World, has two pieces of information for us. On the upside, there has been a gradual decline in conventional wars between states. On the downside, however, he calls to our attention the increasing number of armed conflicts which are hard to keep abreast of, difficult to control, extremely brutal, and taking place on a smaller scale within countries mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and on the periphery of Asia.

The author divides the world into two parts, which he categorizes based on how armed conflict arises in each respective part: "the Middle East with its energy supplies, raw materials, and contact between Muslims and Jews, like the wider Caspian territory, remains a geopolitical tinderbox par excellence and the stage for an endless series of wars." The geopolitics behind the emergence of international tension and destructive armed conflict reminds us that at the crux of these conflicts is the geographically uneven distribution of resources and strategic positions (which are crucial to determine the safe distribution of resources) and a country's military-political power and its demand for resources. Less of an overlap exists in areas of the world where the needs are met by the natural resources (oil, natural gas, ores); the regions with greater problems are associated with growing tensions in international relations.

Geopolitical experts passionately argue about what is more stable and less aggressive, though not necessarily more fair--a unipolar, bipolar or perhaps even a multipolar system of international relations. According to Jii Tomes, we are currently witnessing the decline of old powers and the rise of new powers. Gradually, this process will give birth to a new system of international relations that will complement the heightened geopolitical activity of the main actors who are currently armed to the teeth. As the "aging veterans" try to maintain their familiar positions, the predatory new kids on the block will assert their diverging ideas about the make up of the world: "The United States is therefore trying to get a grip on the strategic areas of the world before their competitors like China and its rivals (who are characterized by massive consumption and scarce materials) get too strong, so that no one will doubt the US's ability to impose their will on the world."

A sadder narrative is, however, playing out on the "geopolitical periphery." While this region is more fraught with armed conflict and bloodshed than anywhere else, the people of the world--the media, the superpowers, and the toothless UN--look away disinterested. And it is in this region that we can identify what the post-modern war looks like: the blurring of differences between war, organized crime, guerrilla and rebel activities, terrorism and political violence, repression and genocide. It is very difficult to distinguish where one form of violence ends and another begins, or whether or not a frontline actually exists since asymmetric warfare has gained popularity. The traditional characteristics of a combatant have transformed as well from the regular professional units filled with discipline and honor, to the various "civilian" militias, to the ever-increasing number of private companies who have hired mercenaries (even the UN has seriously contemplated this option) and child soldiers (two million were recruited in the 1990s), to the so-called "sobels"--poorly paid "soldiers" in the official army by day and "rebels" making extra cash by night. As war and civilian life have thus become ever more entwined together, the number of civilian casualties and refugees has increased and heightened the humanitarian crisis.

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The results of this study reveal an honest analysis of the causes of these current conflicts around the world. But since few conflicts have just one cause, simple and straightforward solutions do not exist. More oft en than not, long-term structural factors such as poverty, modernization, population explosions, ethno-religious diversification, and price developments on world commodity markets will combine with more recent developments particular to the region in question (i.e. the mobilization under a flag) and aggravate the situation. As if that wasn't enough, different factors become more pronounced during different phases of a conflict.

We must correct the media's controversial yet compelling portrayal of certain conflicts as the product of long-standing antagonism between ethnic-cultural communities. The cause of resentment is the accumulation of a wide range of other factors.

Karel Eerny practices as a sociologist.