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  • 标题:Variation across Canada in the economic burden attributable to excess weight, tobacco smoking and physical inactivity.
  • 作者:Krueger, Hans ; Krueger, Joshua ; Koot, Jacqueline
  • 期刊名称:Canadian Journal of Public Health
  • 印刷版ISSN:0008-4263
  • 出版年度:2015
  • 期号:May
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Canadian Public Health Association
  • 摘要:The purpose of the current study is twofold: 1) to determine the potential reduction in economic burden if all provinces achieved prevalence rates of tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity equivalent to those of the province with the lowest rates, and 2) to update and address a limitation noted in our previous model. (2)
  • 关键词:Obesity;Sedentary behavior;Smoking

Variation across Canada in the economic burden attributable to excess weight, tobacco smoking and physical inactivity.


Krueger, Hans ; Krueger, Joshua ; Koot, Jacqueline 等


In Canada, tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity are among the top five risk factors (RFs) in terms of their attributable disease burden in the population. (1) The annual economic burden in Canada ascribed to these three RFs was previously estimated at $50.3 billion in 2012. (2) This previous analysis suggests that even a modest 1% annual relative reduction in the prevalence of tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity can have a substantial health and economic impact over time at the population level, resulting in an estimated $8.5 billion annual reduction in the economic burden in Canada by 2031. (2)

The purpose of the current study is twofold: 1) to determine the potential reduction in economic burden if all provinces achieved prevalence rates of tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity equivalent to those of the province with the lowest rates, and 2) to update and address a limitation noted in our previous model. (2)

METHODS

The details of our base model have been previously published. (2,3) In short, we used an approach based on population attributable fraction (PAF) to estimate the economic burden associated with the various RFs.

Relative risk

The sources and values for the relative risk (RR) associated with tobacco smoking, (4) excess weight (5) and physical inactivity (6) remain the same as in the previously published model.

Risk factor exposure

The analysis of Canada's population exposure to tobacco smoking, physical inactivity and overweight/obesity used data from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). (7) The territories were not included in our provincial-level analysis, but were included in our analysis of Canada as a whole. Individuals were considered overweight if their body mass index (BMI) was between 25 kg/[m.sup.2] and 29.99 kg/[m.sup.2] and obese if their BMI was >30 kg/[m.sup.2], calculated based on self-reported height and weight. For youth aged 12 to 17 years, the Cole system of BMI was used to determine overweight and obesity rates. (8) Tobacco smokers were grouped into light (<10 cigarettes per day or occasional, non-daily smoking), moderate (10-19 cigarettes per day) or heavy ([greater than or equal to]20 cigarettes per day) categories. Physical inactivity rates were based on those individuals categorized in the CCHS as 'inactive', based on average daily leisure energy expenditure over the past three months. Respondents were classified as physically inactive if their leisure energy expenditure was less than 1.5 kcal/kg/day.

We made one adjustment to this base CCHS data, namely estimating the rates of overweight, obesity and physical inactivity for children aged less than 12 years based on the sex-specific rates for 12-14 year olds in the CCHS. We assumed that children under the age of 12 did not smoke.

Multiple exposure levels

The PAF of physical inactivity was calculated using the formula PAF = (E(RR - 1)) / (E(RR - 1) + 1), where E is the proportion of the population who are physically inactive and RR is the relative risk of disease developing in the physically inactive group.

Excess weight was regarded as a trichotomous exposure to excess body weight because three categories of exposure were involved: 1) no excess weight, 2) overweight (prevalence EOW), and 3) obesity (prevalence EOB). The PAF calculation used was as follows:

PAF = [E.sub.OW]([RR.sub.OW] - 1) + [E.sub.OB] ([RR.sub.OB] - 1)/[E.sub.OW]([RR.sub.OW] - 1) + [E.sub.OB]([RR.sub.OB] - 1) + 1

Tobacco smoking was regarded as a tetrachotomous exposure because four categories of exposure were involved: 1) nonsmoking, 2) light smoking (prevalence ETSL), 3) moderate smoking (prevalence ETSM), and 4) heavy smoking (prevalence ETSH). The PAF calculation is as follows:

[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]

Calculating and adjusting costs we estimated the economic burden (direct and indirect costs) associated with the RFs in each province using a prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach, and reported this in 2013 Canadian dollars.

Direct costs, including hospital care, physician services, other health care professionals (but excluding dental services), drugs, health research, and 'other' health care expenditures were extracted for each province from the National Health Expenditure Database. (9) Hospital care, physician care and drug costs by sex were allocated to each of the co-morbidity categories based on data from the Economic Burden of Illness in Canada (EBIC) online tool for 2008.10 EBIC cost data were not sufficiently detailed for a number of co-morbidities, including ICD-10 codes E11-14, I26, I71, I80-82, K55, K80-82, M45-54. In each of these situations, we estimated the costs based on the proportion of sex-specific acute hospital days in 2011/12 for the disease of interest to the relevant co-morbidity with EBIC 2008 costs. (11)

EBIC 2008 does not allocate costs for other health care professionals (excluding dental services), health research, or 'other' health care expenditures. These were estimated by calculating the proportion of total hospital, physician and drug costs allocated to each co-morbidity by EBIC 2008 and then assuming that this proportion would be the same for unallocated costs.

These sex-specific direct care costs by co-morbidity were then multiplied by the calculated risk factor-, sex-, and co-morbidity-specific PAFs to calculate the direct care costs attributable to a given risk factor. By completing the analysis at this level of detail, we are able to segment the results from a number of perspectives, including an assessment of direct care costs by cost category, sex, level of risk factor exposure, province and specific diseases.

Adjusting direct costs in a multifactorial system we then applied the following formula for calculating the combined PAF in a multifactorial system to the calculated crude direct costs attributable to each of tobacco smoking, overweight/ obesity and physical inactivity (3):

Combined PAF = 1 - [(1 - [PAF.sub.TS])(1 - [PAF.sub.EW])(1 - [PAF.sub.PIA])]

where [PAF.sub.TS] is the crude PAF of cost for tobacco smoking, [PAF.sub.EW] is the crude PAF of cost for excess weight and [PAF.sub.PIA] is the crude PAF of cost for physical inactivity.

A disaggregation step was applied at the end of the direct costing process to notionally distribute the adjusted economic burden to each RF according to the proportional distribution of crude costs.

Indirect costs

We calculated indirect costs following the method used in EBIC 1998 (a modified human capital approach *). (12) in order to do so, we determined the ratio of direct to indirect costs for each diagnostic category within EBIC 1998, stratified by the specific category of indirect cost (i.e., short-term disability, long-term disability and premature mortality). (3) The pertinent ratios (by diagnostic category and specific indirect cost category) were applied to the previously identified direct costs within each diagnostic category attributable to individual RFs in order to generate the equivalent indirect cost data.

Provincial-level analysis

After calculating the adjusted economic burden attributable to the three RFs in each province, we took the sex- and age-specific prevalence rates for each RF from the province with the lowest overall prevalence rate per risk factor and applied those to the populations of each remaining province. This allowed us to calculate the difference in annual economic burden for each province based on actual prevalence rates and those based on the comparator province.

Summary of model updates

As noted in the introduction, a secondary purpose of this study was to update and address a limitation in our previous model. (2,3) At the time, we used the most recent data available on resource utilization from EBiC 199812 and the CiHi Hospital Morbidity Database for 2000/01. (13) This required the assumption that the distribution of costs had not significantly changed for specific cost categories over time. Updated numbers have shown this to be a flawed assumption. The current version of the model uses 2008 EBIC data, including the distribution of costs by cost category (hospital care, physician care and drugs), co-morbidity, sex and province. The allocation of costs by bed-days is used only occasionally in the model and has been updated to 2011/12 CIHI data. (11) In addition, the prevalence of risk factors was updated based on 2012 CCHS data (7) (from 2010) and direct costs from the National Health Expenditure Database were updated to 20139 (from 2012).

RESULTS

The economic burden attributable to excess weight, tobacco smoking and physical inactivity in Canada in 2013 is $52.8 billion, with $23.3 billion (44.1%) attributable to excess weight, $18.7 billion to tobacco smoking (35.4%) and $10.8 billion (20.4%) to physical inactivity (see Table 1).

Overall, the results of the updates to the 2012 model increased the economic burden attributable to the three RFs from $50.3 billion (in 2012) to $52.8 billion (in 2013), a 4.9% increase (see Table 2).

Updating the model from 1998 to 2008 EBIC data had a negligible effect on the overall model results, with the annual economic burden in Canada remaining at $50.3 billion. There was, however, a major shift to the distribution of the economic burden by risk factor and disease category (see Table 2). The economic burden attributable to smoking decreased from $21.3 billion to $18.4 billion (-13.4%). The economic burden attributable to excess weight and physical inactivity, on the other hand, increased from $19.0 billion to $21.3 billion (11.7%) and $10.0 billion to $10.6 billion (6.3%) respectively. The economic burden attributable to diseases more commonly associated with tobacco smoking declined substantially as a result of this update (e.g., cancers by -26.4% and respiratory diseases by -12.6%) while those more commonly associated with excess weight increased substantially (e.g., diabetes by +74.0% and musculoskeletal diseases by +15.3%).

Updating the prevalence of risk factors from 2010 to 2012 CCHS data resulted in a 1.8% increase in the overall economic burden for Canada, from $50.3 to $51.2 billion (see Table 2). Between 2010 and 2012, the prevalence of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 17.9% to 17.5% and 44.3% to 43.6% respectively. The prevalence of overweight increased from 28.6% to 30.2% while the prevalence of obesity increased from 14.4% to 16.0%. These changes in risk factor prevalence are mirrored in the resulting economic burden (see Table 2). That is, the economic burden attributable to smoking and physical inactivity each decreased by 1.5%, while the economic burden attributable to obesity increased by 6.2%.

Finally, updating health care expenditures from 2012 ($205.9 billion in total expenditures) to 2013 ($211.2 billion in total expenditures) (9) resulted in a 3.1% increase in the annual economic burden attributable to the three RFs in Canada.

In 2012, the province of British Columbia had the lowest prevalence of tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity in Canada. The prevalence of tobacco smoking ranged from 12.7% in British Columbia to 22.8% in Newfoundland and Labrador (see Figure 1). The prevalence of excess weight ranged from 43.0% in British Columbia to 59.3% in Newfoundland and Labrador (see Figure 2). The prevalence of physical inactivity ranged from 36.1% in British Columbia to 48.5% in Quebec (see Figure 3). The resulting annual economic burden per capita attributable to the three RFs in British Columbia in 2013 was lower ($1,249) than any other Canadian province (ranging from $1,454 in Quebec to $1,932 in Newfoundland and Labrador) (see Figure 4).

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Applying the sex- and age-specific prevalence rates for each RF from British Columbia to the population of all other provinces would result in a reduced annual economic burden per capita ranging between $130 (in Ontario) and $405 (in Newfoundland and Labrador) (see Figure 5). The total annual reduction in economic burden would range between $43.2 million in Prince Edward Island to $1,756.8 million in Ontario (see Figure 6). If all provinces were to achieve BC prevalence rates for the three risk factors, then $5.3 billion in economic burden could be avoided annually ($1.7 billion in direct costs and $3.6 billion in indirect costs). Of this $5.3 billion, $2.8 billion (52.7% of the total economic burden avoided) would be attributable to a decrease in tobacco smoking, $1.5 billion (28.0%) to a decrease in physical inactivity and $1.0 billion (19.4%) to a decrease in excess weight.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]

DISCUSSION

In 2011-2012, the prevalences of excess weight, tobacco smoking and physical inactivity were lower in BC than in any other Canadian province. If these age- and sex-specific prevalence rates were achieved in all other provinces, the annual economic burden attributable to these three RFs would be reduced by 10.0%. The majority of this reduction would result from lower smoking rates.

By comparison, our previous analysis suggested that a 1% annual relative reduction in the three RFs would result in an $8.5 billion annual reduction in economic burden in Canada by 2031, or 14.3% of the estimated $59.2 billion (in 2012 constant dollars) total economic burden that year. (2)

The reasons for lower risk factor rates in BC are complex and impossible to entirely unravel. For example, BC's culture of health, together with favourable weather patterns in the southwest of the province, make outdoor physical activity more possible year-round than in most other parts of Canada. However, a number of key initiatives and leaders also have played an important role in helping BC residents to adopt healthier behaviours. In 2003, BC was awarded the 2010 Winter Olympics and the government of the day used the opportunity to launch ActNow BC, "a bold intersectoral initiative that integrates the actions of the whole-of-government with those of civil society ... intending to make BC the healthiest jurisdiction to ever host the Games." (14) The initiative had strong support from the premier of the province. The BC Healthy Living Alliance (BCHLA), also formed in 2003, released a report titled The Winning Legacy (15) in February of 2005, an evidence-based position paper outlining 27 recommendations to address the risk factors of excess weight, smoking and physical inactivity. ActNow BC provided $25.2 million to the BCHLA to pursue these initiatives. (16) The BC government continues to focus on primary prevention. (17-19) The province has also benefitted from the visionary leadership of individuals such as Barbara Kaminsky, the CEO of the Canadian Cancer Society BC/Yukon Division. She served as the inaugural leader of the BCHLA and the Primary Prevention Action Group of the Canadian Partnership against Cancer. More recently, she has spearheaded the implementation of the Cancer Prevention Centre in BC and is instrumental in leading its expansion across the country. A report produced by the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) (20) addressed the question What Does It Take to Make a Healthy Province? and found that strong political leadership, solutions that can be applied across governments with the participation of the larger civil society, timely action even if all evidence is not yet in, and enhanced funding are all critical.

Although updating our model to include more current data on resource use and costs had little impact on the overall economic burden attributable to the three risk factors, the update did produce a considerable change in the distribution of the economic burden by risk factor and disease category, resulting in substantially higher costs attributable to excess weight and lower costs attributable to smoking. This analysis calls into question our previous assumption that the distribution of costs have not changed significantly for specific disease categories over time, suggesting that it is important for data to be continually updated for this type of economic modelling. A comparison of acute care days in 2000/01 (13) and 2011/12 (11) similarly indicates a decrease in the proportion of days treating neoplasms (-16.3%) and diseases of the circulatory system (-28.3%), and an increase in the proportion of days treating diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue (+9.6%), and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases (+3.6%). A corresponding shift in mortality has also been noted globally, with age-standardized death rates due to cancers, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases declining between 1990 and 2013 and death rates due to diabetes and musculoskeletal disorders increasing. (21)

The result of this update also has important policy implications. From an economic perspective, the impact of excess weight in Canada is now more substantial than that of tobacco smoking. In addition, the continuing decline in smoking prevalence between 2010 and 2012, together with the increasing prevalence of excess weight, resulted in a widened gap between the economic burdens attributable to these two risk factors. Our updated model suggests that in 2013, the annual economic burden attributable to excess weight in Canada was 25% higher than that attributable to tobacco smoking ($23.3 vs. $18.7 billion). Similar results have been observed in the United Kingdom, where the economic burden attributable to excess weight is 65% higher than that attributable to smoking. (22)

The inclusion of indirect costs in any economic analysis is controversial, given that a variety of approaches exist, all of which generate very different results. (23-26) In 1998, EBIC used a modified human capital approach, changing to the friction cost method ([dagger]) in 2008. The resulting indirect costs vary substantially (see Table 3).

If the friction cost method were applied to the current model, the indirect economic burden attributable to the three risk factors in Canada would be reduced from $36.2 to $2.1 billion. The focus of the friction cost method is on lost production from the "perspective of firms, consumers and society, without accounting for the potential income lost on an individual basis," (27) nor does it value potential time lost due to morbidity or mortality. That is, while smoking may reduce a person's life by an average of 11-12 years, (28) the friction cost method only applies a value on the time period that it takes to replace this individual in the workforce. Placing an economic value on time lost due to disability and premature mortality (as in the modified human capital approach) allows us to compare the broader effect of the risk factors on society as a whole, rather than from a narrow focus on production losses.

While we have addressed an important limitation in our original model, other limitations continue to exist. Most importantly, the method of scaling up from direct to indirect costs depends on the assumption that the ratios of costs have not changed over time. In addition, the source for the RRs associated with smoking (4) and physical inactivity (6) adjust for known confounding factors in generating disease-specific RRs. The meta-analyses for the RRs associated with overweight and obesity, however, did not include physical inactivity as a potentially confounding RF, (5) which may lead to an overestimate of the economic burden attributable to excess weight. Previous sensitivity analysis also suggests that the true economic burden may vary by [+ or -]17% of our best estimate. (2)

REFERENCES

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(2.) Krueger H, Turner D, Krueger J, Ready AE. The economic benefits of risk factor reduction in Canada: Tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity. Can J Public Health 2014;105(1):e69-e78. PMID: 24735700.

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(7.) Canadian Community Health Survey 2011/2012 Public Use Microdata file (Catalogue number 82M0013X2013001). All computations, use and interpretation of these data are entirely those of H. Krueger & Associates Inc.

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(9.) Canadian Institute for Health Information. National Health Expenditure Trends, 1975 to 2013. Ottawa, ON: CIHI, 2014.

(10.) Public Health Agency of Canada. Economic Burden of Illness in Canada, 2005-2008. Ottawa, ON: PHAC, 2014.

(11.) Canadian Institute for Health Information. Discharge Abstract Database, 2011/12 (data purchased for this modelling).

(12.) Health Canada. Economic Burden of Illness in Canada, 1998. Ottawa: Health Canada, 2002.

(13.) Canadian Institute for Health Information. Hospital Morbidity Database Tabular Reports 2000/2001. Available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tablestableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo02a-eng.htm (Accessed November 2, 2014).

(14.) World Health Organization Collaborating Centre on Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Policy. Mobilizing Intersectoral Action to Promote Health: The Case of ActNow BC in British Columbia, Canada. Geneva: WHO, 2009.

(15.) BC Healthy Living Alliance. The Winning Legacy: A Plan for Improving the Health of British Columbians by 2010. 2005. Available at: http://www.bchealthyliving.ca/engage/reports/ (Accessed April 2, 2015).

(16.) BC Healthy Living Alliance. Report on the Winning Legacy Initiatives September 2007 to March 2011. 2011. Available at: http://www.bchealthyliving.ca/engage/reports/ (Accessed April 7, 2015).

(17.) Clinical Prevention Policy Review Committee. A Lifetime of Prevention. 2009. Available at: http://www.health.gov.bc.ca/library/publications/year/2009/CPPR_Lifetime_of_Prevention_Report.pdf (Accessed April 2, 2015).

(18.) BC Ministry of Health. Promote, Protect, Prevent: Our Health Begins Here. 2013. Available at: http://www.health.gov.bc.ca/library/publications/year/2013/BC-guiding-framework-for-public-health.pdf (Accessed April 7, 2015).

(19.) BC Ministry of Health. Healthy Families BC Policy Framework: A Focused Approach to Chronic Disease and Injury Prevention. 2014. Available at: http://www.health.gov.bc.ca/library/publications/year/2014/healthy-families-bcpolicy-framework.pdf (Accessed April 3, 2015).

(20.) Manuel DG, Creatore MI, Rosella LCA, Henry DA. What Does it Take to Make a Healthy Province? Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. 2009. Available at: http://www.ices.on.ca/Publications/Atlases-and-Reports/2009/ What-does-it-take-to-make-a-healthy-province (Accessed April 1, 2015).

(21.) Naghavi MWH, Lozano R, Davis A, Liang X, Zhou M, Vollset SE, et al. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2015;385(9963):117-71. PMID: 25530442. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2.

(22.) Scarborough P, Bhatnagar P, Wickramasinghe KK, Allender S, Foster C, Rayner M. The economic burden of ill health due to diet, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol and obesity in the UK: An update to 2006-07 NHS costs. J Public Health 2011;33(4):527-35. PMID: 21562029. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdr033.

(23.) Goeree R, O'Brien BJ, Blackhouse F, Agro K, Goering P. The valuation of productivity costs due to premature mortality: A comparison of the humancapital and friction-cost methods for schizophrenia. Can J Psychiatry 1999;44: 455-63. PMID: 10389606.

(24.) Hutubessy RCW, van Tulder MW, Vondeling H, Bouter LM. Indirect costs of back pain in the Netherlands: A comparison of the human capital method with the friction cost method. Pain 1999;80(1):201-7. PMID: 10204732.

(25.) Lofland JG, Locklear JC, Frick KD. Different approaches to valuing the lost productivity of patients with migraine. Pharmacoeconomics 2001;19(9): 917-25. PMID: 11700778.

(26.) Yabroff KR, Bradley CJ, Mariotto AB, Brown ML, Feuer EJ. Estimates and projections of value of life lost from cancer deaths in the United States. J Natl Cancer Inst 2008;100(24):1755-62. PMID: 19066267. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djn383.

(27.) Tranmer JE, Guerriere DN, Ungar WJ, Coyte PC. Valuing patient and caregiver time: A review of the literature. Pharmacoeconomics 2005;23(5): 449-59. PMID: 15896097.

(28.) Jha P, Ramasundarahettige C, Landsman V, Rostron B, Thun M, Anderson R, et al. 21st-century hazards of smoking and benefits of cessation in the United States. N Engl J Med 2013;368(4):341-50. PMID: 23343063. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa1211128.

Received: January 15, 2015

Accepted: April 26, 2015

Hans Krueger, PhD, [1,2] Joshua Krueger, BA, [2] Jacqueline Koot, BSc [2]

Author Affiliations

[1.] School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC

[2.] H. Krueger & Associates Inc., Delta, BC

Correspondence: Hans Krueger, H. Krueger & Associates Inc., 4554 48B Street,

Delta, BC V4K 2R8, Tel: [telephone]604-946-5464, E-mail: hans@krueger.ca

Conflict of Interest: None to declare.

* In the human capital approach, gender- and age-specific average earnings are combined with productivity trends and years of life lost due to a specific disease/ condition to estimate unrealized lifetime earnings. An important criticism of this method is that it places a higher value on the years of life lost for someone with higher earning potential. In particular, unpaid work and leisure time are not explicitly accounted for. EBIC 1998 addressed this issue by explicitly valuing nonproductive time.

([dagger]) The friction cost method attempts to measure only actual production losses to society during the friction period between the start of an absence from work (resulting from short-term absence, long-term absence, disability and mortality) and when original productivity levels are restored.
Table 1. Estimated prevalence of RFs, total economic burden for
multifactorial system, and disaggregated costs by RF, Canada, 2013,
by sex adjusted for multiple RFs in one individual

                                          %                 #
                                     Population        Individuals
                                       with RF           with RF

Males
Smokers
  Light                                      7.7%         1,321,342
  Moderate                                   5.8%         1,005,588
  Heavy                                      6.4%         1,105,548
  Subtotal--Male smokers                    19.9%         3,432,478
Excess weight
  Over weight                               36.7%         6,326,997
  Obese                                     16.1%         2,776,253
  Subtotal--Male excess weight              52.9%         9,103,250
Inactive                                    40.8%         7,030,810
Subtotal

Females
  Smokers
  Light                                      7.6%         1,323,306
  Moderate                                   4.8%           848,665
  Heavy                                      2.8%           484,763
  Subtotal--Female smokers                  15.2%         2,656,735
Excess weight
  Over weight                               23.7%         4,155,943
  Obesity                                   15.8%         2,776,253
  Subtotal--Female excess weight            39.6%         6,932,196
Inactive                                    46.3%         8,109,515
Subtotal

Both sexes
  Smokers
  Light                                      7.6%         2,644,648
  Moderate                                   5.3%         1,854,254
  Heavy                                      4.6%         1,590,311
  Subtotal--Smokers                         17.5%         6,089,212
  Excess weight
  Over weight                               30.2%        10,482,940
  Obesity                                   16.0%         5,552,506
  Subtotal--Excess weight                   46.1%        16,035,446
Inactive                                    43.6%        15,140,325
Total

                                     Direct cost        Indirect
                                   per individual       cost per
                                     with RF ($)       individual
                                                       with RF ($)
Males
Smokers
  Light                                      $769            $1,497
  Moderate                                 $1,274            $2,456
  Heavy                                    $1,559            $2,984
  Subtotal--Male smokers                   $1,171            $2,257
Excess weight
  Over weight                                $199              $554
  Obese                                      $722            $1,645
  Subtotal--Male excess weight               $358              $887
Inactive                                     $238              $497
Subtotal

Females
  Smokers
  Light                                      $570            $1,103
  Moderate                                   $994            $1,936
  Heavy                                    $1,563            $3,045
  Subtotal--Female smokers                   $887            $1,723
Excess weight
  Over weight                                $291              $753
  Obesity                                    $867            $1,879
  Subtotal--Female excess weight             $521            $1,204
Inactive                                     $197              $495
Subtotal

Both sexes
  Smokers
  Light                                      $669            $1,300
  Moderate                                 $1,146            $2,218
  Heavy                                    $1,560            $3,003
  Subtotal--Smokers                        $1,047            $2,024
  Excess weight
  Over weight                                $235              $633
  Obesity                                    $794            $1,762
  Subtotal--Excess weight                    $429            $1,024
Inactive                                     $216              $496
Total

                                   Total cost per     Total direct
                                     individual        cost of RF
                                     with RF ($)       (million$)

Males
Smokers
  Light                                    $2,266            $1,016
  Moderate                                 $3,730            $1,281
  Heavy                                    $4,543            $1,723
  Subtotal--Male smokers                   $3,428            $4,020
Excess weight
  Over weight                                $753            $1,258
  Obese                                    $2,367            $2,003
  Subtotal--Male excess weight             $1,245            $3,261
Inactive                                     $735            $1,673
Subtotal                                                     $8,955

Females
  Smokers
  Light                                    $1,673              $755
  Moderate                                 $2,930              $844
  Heavy                                    $4,608              $757
  Subtotal--Female smokers                 $2,610            $2,356
Excess weight
  Over weight                              $1,044            $1,209
  Obesity                                  $2,746            $2,406
  Subtotal--Female excess weight           $1,725            $3,615
Inactive                                     $692            $1,600
Subtotal                                                     $7,571

Both sexes
  Smokers
  Light                                    $1,969            $1,771
  Moderate                                 $3,364            $2,125
  Heavy                                    $4,563            $2,481
  Subtotal--Smokers                        $3,071            $6,376
  Excess weight
  Over weight                                $868            $2,467
  Obesity                                  $2,556            $4,409
  Subtotal--Excess weight                  $1,453            $6,876
Inactive                                     $712            $3,273
Total                                                       $16,526

                                        Total          Total cost
                                      indirect            of RF
                                     cost of RF        (million$)
                                     (million$)
Males
Smokers
  Light                                    $1,978            $2,994
  Moderate                                 $2,469            $3,751
  Heavy                                    $3,299            $5,023
  Subtotal--Male smokers                   $7,747           $11,767
Excess weight
  Over weight                              $3,505            $4,763
  Obese                                    $4,567            $6,571
  Subtotal--Male excess weight             $8,072           $11,334
Inactive                                   $3,493            $5,166
Subtotal                                  $19,312           $28,267

Females
  Smokers
  Light                                    $1,460            $2,214
  Moderate                                 $1,643            $2,487
  Heavy                                    $1,476            $2,234
  Subtotal--Female smokers                 $4,579            $6,935
Excess weight
  Over weight                              $3,128            $4,337
  Obesity                                  $5,216            $7,623
  Subtotal--Female excess weight           $8,345           $11,960
Inactive                                   $4,012            $5,612
Subtotal                                  $16,936           $24,506

Both sexes
  Smokers
  Light                                    $3,438            $5,208
  Moderate                                 $4,112            $6,237
  Heavy                                    $4,775            $7,256
  Subtotal--Smokers                       $12,325           $18,702
  Excess weight
  Over weight                              $6,633            $9,100
  Obesity                                  $9,784           $14,193
  Subtotal--Excess weight                 $16,417           $23,293
Inactive                                   $7,505           $10,778
Total                                     $36,248           $52,773

RF = Risk factor.

Table 2. Summary effect of updating the 2012 model for
Canada, changes by risk factor and disease category

                                            Update
                            2012 Model        EBIC
                            (millions)   (million$)   % Change

By risk factor

Smokers
  Light                        $5,906       $5,095     -13.7%
  Moderate                     $7,048       $6,120     -13.2%
  Heavy                        $8,334       $7,221     -13.4%
  Subtotal--Smokers           $21,288      $18,435     -13.4%
Excess weight
  Over weight                  $7,522       $8,523      13.3%
  Obesity                     $11,515      $12,739      10.6%
  Subtotal--Excess weight     $19,037      $21,262      11.7%
Inactive                       $9,988      $10,619       6.3%
Total                         $50,313      $50,316       0.0%

By disease category

Cardiovascular diseases       $21,027      $20,665      -1.7%
Cancers                        $9,783       $7,202     -26.4%
Musculoskeletal diseases       $9,291      $10,713      15.3%
Respiratory Diseases           $6,634       $5,800     -12.6%
Diabetes                       $3,222       $5,606      74.0%
Other                            $354         $330      -6.9%
Total                         $50,313      $50,316       0.0%

                            2012 CCHS               2013 Costs
                            (million$)   % Change   (million$)

By risk factor

Smokers
  Light                        $5,059      -0.7%       $5,208
  Moderate                     $6,058      -1.0%       $6,237
  Heavy                        $7,048      -2.4%       $7,256
  Subtotal--Smokers           $18,165      -1.5%      $18,702
Excess weight
  Over weight                  $8,825       3.5%       $9,100
  Obesity                     $13,759       8.0%      $14,193
  Subtotal--Excess weight     $22,584       6.2%      $23,293
Inactive                      $10,454      -1.5%      $10,778
Total                         $51,204       1.8%      $52,773

By disease category

Cardiovascular diseases       $21,005       1.6%      $21,656
Cancers                        $7,236       0.5%       $7,445
Musculoskeletal diseases      $11,120       3.8%      $11,462
Respiratory Diseases           $5,799       0.0%       $5,971
Diabetes                       $5,691       1.5%       $5,877
Other                            $352       6.5%         $362
Total                         $51,204       1.8%      $52,773

                                        % Change
                                         2012 to
                            % Change   2013 Model

By risk factor

Smokers
  Light                        2.9%       -11.8%
  Moderate                     3.0%       -11.5%
  Heavy                        3.0%       -12.9%
  Subtotal--Smokers            3.0%       -12.1%
Excess weight
  Over weight                  3.1%        21.0%
  Obesity                      3.2%        23.3%
  Subtotal--Excess weight      3.1%        22.4%
Inactive                       3.1%         7.9%
Total                          3.1%         4.9%

By disease category

Cardiovascular diseases        3.1%         3.0%
Cancers                        2.9%       -23.9%
Musculoskeletal diseases       3.1%        23.4%
Respiratory Diseases           3.0%       -10.0%
Diabetes                       3.3%        82.4%
Other                          3.0%         2.1%
Total                          3.1%         4.9%

Update EBIC = EBIC 2008 (including EBIC cost distribution) updated from
EBIC 1998 (cost distribution based on patient bed-days).

2012 CCHS = 2012 CCHS prevalence data updated from 2010 CCHS.

2013 Costs = 2013 CIHI NHEX expenditures updated from 2012 CIHI NHEX.

Table 3. Economic burden of illness in Canada by diagnostic
category, indirect costs as percent of direct costs

                  EBIC 1998 (Human capital)

Diagnostic
category          Mortality    Morbidity        Total

Malignant and          431%          46%         478%
other neoplasms

Endocrine,              64%          55%         119%
nutritional and
metabolic
diseases

Cardiovascular         121%          50%         171%
diseases

Respiratory             48%          99%         146%
diseases/
infections

Digestive               32%          33%          65%
diseases

Musculoskeletal          5%         514%         519%
diseases

                  EBIC 2008 (Friction)

Diagnostic
category          Mortality    Morbidity        Total

Malignant and          3.5%         8.8%        12.3%
other neoplasms

Endocrine,             0.4%         2.5%         2.9%
nutritional and
metabolic
diseases

Cardiovascular         0.8%         2.3%         3.1%
diseases

Respiratory            0.3%        46.8%        47.1%
diseases/
infections

Digestive              0.4%         2.7%         3.2%
diseases

Musculoskeletal        0.0%        24.1%        24.2%
diseases

Figure 4. Annual economic burden per capita in Canada ($)
attributable to tobacco smoking, excess weight and
physical inactivity, by province and direct/indirect
costs, 2013

Annual Economic Burden Per Capita

                                     Province

                  BC         AB         SK         MB         ON

Indirect ($)    843.86    1056.44    1254.77    1126.14    1016.56
Direct ($)      404.92     486.47     575.12     529.60     450.10
                                     Province

                  QC         NB         NS        PEI         NL

Indirect ($)    998.30    1307.98    1256.85    1275.16    1300.43
Direct ($)      455.94     613.61     587.40     577.15     631.50

Figure 5. Changes in annual per capita economic burden in
Canada ($) based on BC risk factor prevalence, by
province and direct/indirect costs, 2013

Changes in        Province
Annual Per
Capita Economic
Burden                 BC         AB         SK         MB         ON

Indirect ($)         0.00    -104.29    -220.11    -124.51     -88.72
Direct ($)           0.00     -51.11    -100.57     -59.98     -40.93

Changes in        Province
Annual Per
Capita Economic
Burden                 QC         NB         NS        PEI         NL

Indirect ($)      -122.54    -241.65    -189.81    -202.65     -271.2
Direct ($)         -59.51    -116.46     -91.72     -94.27     -133.5

Figure 6. Changes in annual economic burden in Canada
(million$) based on BC risk factor prevalence, by
province and direct/indirect costs, 2013

Changes in
Annual
Economic
Burden
($Millions)    Province

'                   BC         AB         SK         MB         ON

Indirect          0.00    -417.90    -243.50    -157.56    -1202.18
($ Millions)

Direct            0.00    -204.79    -111.25     -75.89    -554.61

Changes in
Annual
Economic
Burden
($Millions)    Province

'                   QC         NB         NS        PEI         NL

Indirect       -999.18    -182.60    -178.98     -29.49    -143.29
($ Millions)

Direct         -485.24     -88.00     -86.49     -13.72     -70.53
($ Millions)
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