Unilateral Action and Presidential Power: A Theory.
MOE, TERRY M. ; HOWELL, WILLIAM G.
What are the foundations of presidential power? Almost forty years
ago, Richard Neustadt (1960) offered an answer that transformed the
study of the American presidency. Neustadt observed that presidents have
very little formal power, far less than necessary to meet the enormous
expectations heaped on them during the modern era. The key to strong
presidential leadership, he argued, lies not in formal power, but in the
skills, temperament, and experience of the man occupying the office and
in his ability to put these personal qualities to use in enhancing his
own reputation and prestige. The foundation of presidential power is
ultimately personal.
Neustadt's notion of the personal presidency dominated the
field for decades, but its influence is on the decline. The main reason
is that it seems increasingly out of sync with the facts. The personal
presidency caught on among political scientists at just the time that
the presidency itself was rapidly developing as an institution and as
studies of presidential leadership found themselves focusing on the
"institutional presidency" (Burke 1992; Moe 1985; Nathan
1983). As time went on, it became clear that the field needed to adjust
to a new reality, in which formal structure and power have more central
roles to play (Moe 1993).
This adjustment was hastened by the rise of the "new
institutionalism" in political science generally. Scholars across
fields exhibited renewed interest in institutions of all kinds, new
analytical tools were developed for the task, and the presidency became
part of the revolution. To date, the new analytic work emerging from
this movement has rarely focused on the presidency per se (for an
exception, see Cameron 1999). But by including presidents as one of
several key players--in models of political control of the bureaucracy
(Ferejohn and Shipan 1990), for instance, or policy gridlock under
separation of powers (Krehbiel 1998; Brady and Volden 1998), or the
appropriations process (Kiewiet and McCubbins 1991)--scholars have taken
the first steps toward a rigorous institutional theory of the
presidency.
In this article, we will continue this line of inquiry and
encourage its evolution into a new phase that focuses more directly on
the presidency itself. Our point of departure is the same question that
motivated Neustadt. What are the foundations of presidential power? The
new institutional literature speaks to this issue by providing rigorous
treatments of specific formal powers granted presidents under the
Constitution. Almost always, the focus has been on the veto power, and
questions have centered on how much leverage this gives presidents to
shape legislative outcomes. Another is the appointment power, which
offers presidents important formal means of engineering bureaucratic outcomes. Both are surely key parts of the larger picture of
presidential power.
Our aim here is to highlight an institutional basis for
presidential power that has gone largely unappreciated to this point but
that, in our view, has become so pivotal to presidential leadership, and
so central to an understanding of presidential power, that it virtually
defines what is distinctively modern about the modern American
presidency. This is the president's formal capacity for taking
unilateral action and thus for making law on his own. Often, presidents
do this through executive orders. Sometimes they do it through
proclamations or executive agreements or national security directives.
But whatever vehicles they may choose, the end result is that presidents
can and do make new law--and thus shift the existing status quo--without
the explicit consent of Congress.
The fact is, presidents have always acted unilaterally to make law.
The Louisiana Purchase, the freeing of the slaves, the internment of the
Japanese, the desegregation of the military, the initiation of
affirmative action, the imposition of regulatory review--these are but a
few of the most notable examples. Most presidential orders are far less
dramatic, of course. But they are numerous and often important, and it
appears the strategy of unilateral action has grown increasingly more
central to the modern presidency.
Why are presidents able to do these sorts of things? After all, the
Constitution grants the lawmaking power solely to Congress, so
wouldn't the courts step in to prevent presidents from making law
on their own? And is it not likely that, when presidents seem to be
acting unilaterally, they are really just exercising the discretion
delegated them by Congress, and that major departures from the will of
Congress would be overturned by new legislation? These are the kinds of
questions a theory of unilateral action must address. They have to do,
above all else, with the constitutional and statutory bases for the
president's powers of unilateral action, with the president's
incentives to use these powers, and with the incentives of Congress and
the courts to stop him.
So far, these issues have not been well addressed. There is
presently a small empirical literature on presidential lawmaking
centered on executive orders. Some of this work is rooted in normative legal concerns--for example, about whether presidents have exceeded
their rightful authority under the Constitution (Fleishman and Aufses
1976; Hebe 1972; Neighbors 1964; Cash 1963). In recent years, political
scientists have shown interest in unilateral action by presidents, and a
growing body of quantitative work is moving toward a more rigorous
treatment of the subject (Mayer 1996, 1997; Cooper 1986, 1997; Cohen and
Krause 1997a, 1997b; Krause and Cohen 1997; Deering and Maltzman 1998;
Gomez and Shull 1995; Shanley 1983; Wigton 1991). As things now stand,
however, this literature devotes little attention to theory. The facts
are becoming better known, but how they fit together and why remains a
mystery.
In this article, we want to take a few modest steps toward a better
understanding of unilateral action by presidents. Our purpose is to set
out a theoretical perspective that, while not formally developed at this
point, contains what we think are the key elements that need to be taken
into account and shows how they work together to generate expectations
for the presidency.
What we offer is an institutional theory--with a twist. The twist
arises because, unlike virtually all other institutional analyses, ours
does not put the focus on specific formal powers or on the specific
requirements of the law in explaining why presidents do what they do.
All of these things remain quite relevant. But the central claim here is
that the president's powers of unilateral action are a force in
American politics precisely because they are not specified in the formal
structure of government. We argue that, in sharp contrast to the veto,
appointments, and other enumerated powers--the lynchpins of other
institutional analyses--this important aspect of presidential power
derives its strength and resilience from the ambiguity of the formal
structure. We also argue that presidents have strong incentives to push
this ambiguity relentlessly--yet strategically and with moderation--to
expand their own powers and that, for reasons rooted in the nature of
their institutions, neither Congress nor the courts are likely to stop
them. The result is a slow but steady shift of the institutional balance
of power over time in favor of presidents.
We are currently involved in a research project to collect
comprehensive data on presidential orders, as well as on how Congress
and the courts have responded to them. Results are a ways off at this
point, but our ultimate aim is to put these theoretical ideas to the
test. For now, we will simply present the ideas themselves and hope that
readers find them interesting and worth pursuing.
The Constitution as an Incomplete Contract
When the Founders designed and negotiated the Constitution, they
essentially agreed on an incomplete contract for governing the nation.
This contract avoids specifying precisely what decisions must be made
under all current and future contingencies. Instead, it sets up a
governing structure that defines the official actors--the president, the
Congress, the courts--allocates powers and jurisdictions among them,
structures incentives (if implicitly), specifies certain procedures for
decision making, and, in general, provides a framework of rules that
allow the nation's leaders to make public decisions and deal with
whatever contingencies may arise.
Within this framework, it was inevitable that the three branches
would engage in a struggle for power in the making of public policy
(Corwin 1984). Indeed, the design was premised on it and took advantage
of it. The whole idea was that divided and shared powers among the key
actors would promote a rivalry conducive to the public good--for
ambition could be made to check ambition, and no one actor could gain
dominance over the others. The result would be a stable republic and the
avoidance of tyranny. The framework would constrain and channel the
struggle for power.
It was also inevitable, however, that there would be a struggle for
power over the framework itself. The Constitution sets out the entire
design of American government in just a few brief pages and is almost
entirely lacking in detail. It does not define its terms. It does not
elaborate. It does not clarify. While some of the powers it allocates
are straightforward--the president's power to veto legislation, for
instance--many of the others, including powers that are quite
fundamental, are left wholly ambiguous. The actual powers of the three
branches, then, both in an absolute sense and relative to one another,
cannot be determined from the Constitution alone. They must, of
necessity, be determined in the ongoing practice of politics. And this
ensures that the branches will do more than struggle over day-to-day
policy making. They will also engage in a higher order struggle over the
allocation of power and the practical rights to exercise it.
Throughout the course of American history, this higher order
struggle has been reasonably well contained. No single actor has
dominated, decisions have been made for the nation, and the same formal
Constitution has prevailed. Nonetheless, the reality of the governing
structure has changed substantially over the years, to the point that
the Founders would barely recognize the system that now governs our
nation. Who has power, and how that power gets exercised, looks
dramatically different today than it did two hundred years ago. The
struggle has transformed it.
This transformation has affected all three branches in many ways,
and the story is a much bigger one than we can tell or try to explore
here. What we want to show, in the analysis that follows, is simply that
there is a logic to this political struggle, and that this logic helps
explain why presidents have been able to develop and expand their powers
of unilateral action--powers that the Constitution nowhere explicitly
grants them.
Ambiguity and Presidential Imperialism
If this analysis were mainly about legislators, we would begin by
embracing a standard theoretical assumption: that legislators are
motivated by reelection. This is simple, and it does a good job of
explaining legislative behavior (Mayhew 1974). But what motivates
presidents? Reelection obviously cannot explain the behavior of (modern)
presidents during their second terms, since they cannot run again. And
even in their first terms, presidential behavior seems to be driven more
centrally by other things.
A truly accurate characterization of what motivates presidents
would be complicated, of course, and somewhat different for different
historical periods, for the incentives of institutional actors are
partly a function of the Constitution and partly a function of the
(changing) society it governs. Broadly speaking, however, it is fair to
say that most presidents have put great emphasis on their legacies and,
in particular, on being regarded in the eyes of history as strong and
effective leaders. They have a brief period of time--four years, perhaps
eight--to establish a record of accomplishments, and to succeed they
must exercise as much control over government and its outcomes as they
can. For this they need power--which, as Neustadt (1960) reminds us, is
the foundation of presidential success. Whatever else presidents might
want, they must at bottom be seekers of power.
For the most part, this has always been true. But it has especially
been true since the turn of the century. One reason is that, as strong
parties have weakened, presidents have gained stature and flexibility as
entrepreneurial political leaders--and, in consequence, they have had
both the incentives and the opportunities to shape their own political
fates and to seek the power to do it. During this same period, moreover,
the public began to demand positive governmental responses to pressing
social problems and to hold the president--as the symbol and focus of
national leadership--responsible for the successes and failures of
government. As presidential scholars have long noted, these demands and
expectations are overwhelming, and they far outstrip the
president's actual power to get results, which gives them still
greater incentives to develop and expand their power in whatever ways
they can (Lowi 1985; Moe 1985).
The ambiguity of the governing structure gives them plenty of
opportunities to do just that. This is so even for enumerated powers that seem on the surface to be quite specific. The president is granted
the powers of commander in chief of the armed forces, for instance. But
does this mean he can send troops into another country without a
declaration of war by Congress or that he can act to destabilize unfriendly regimes in foreign nations? On these sorts of details, the
Constitution is silent, giving the president ample room to maneuver.
Similarly, the president is granted the right, subject to Senate
approval, to enter into treaties with other nations. But can he
unilaterally enter into international "agreements" that need
not be submitted to the Senate at all? Again, the Constitution does not
say, and the president can move in, if he wants, to claim these powers
for himself.
While there is ambiguity even in enumerated powers, the
Constitution is especially ambiguous on the broad nature and extent of
presidential authority. In sweeping language, it endows the president
with the "executive power" and gives him responsibility to
"take care that the laws be faithfully executed," but it does
not say what any of this is supposed to mean. Because these phrases are
so widely applicable to virtually everything the president might
contemplate doing, their inherent ambiguity "provide(s) the
opportunity for the exercise of a residuum of unenumerated power"
(Pious 1979, 38)--and thus for presidents to lay claim to what is not
explicitly granted to them. The Founders, we should note, were well
aware of this eventuality. Those (including Madison) who favored a
limited executive argued for spelling out the president's authority
in detail, while those (such as Hamilton) who favored a strong executive
wanted language that was ambiguous. On the language issue, the latter
mostly won. But both were right about its implications for power.
The president is in an ideal position to take advantage of this
ambiguity. To begin with, although he is charged with executing the laws
passed by Congress, he is an independent authority under the
Constitution and thus has an independent legal basis for taking actions
that may not be simple reflections of congressional will He is not
Congress's agent. Any notion that Congress makes the laws and that
the president's job is to execute them--to follow orders, in
effect--overlooks the essence of separation of powers. The president is
an authority in his own right, coequal to Congress, and not subordinate
to it.
The president's base of independent authority, in fact, is
enormously enhanced rather than compromised by the executive nature of
the job:
First, because presidents are executives, the operation of
government is in their hands. As an inherent part of their job, they
manage, coordinate, staff, collect information, plan, reconcile
conflicting values, and respond quickly and flexibly to emerging
problems. These activities are what it means, in practice, to have the
executive power, and they give presidents tremendous discretion in the
exercise of governmental authority. The opportunities for presidential
imperialism are too numerous to count. When presidents feel it is in
their political interests, they can put whatever decisions they like to
strategic use, both in gaining policy advantage and in pushing out the
boundaries of their power.
Second, because presidents are executives, they have at their
disposal a tremendous reservoir of expertise, experience, and
information, both in the institutional presidency and in the bureaucracy
at large. These are critical resources the other branches can never
match, and they give presidents a huge strategic advantage--in the
language of agency theory, an information asymmetry of vast
proportions--in pursuing the myriad opportunities for aggrandizement that present themselves in the course of governmental decision making.
Third, and finally, there is a key advantage that is often
overlooked. Because presidents are executives, and because of the
discretion, opportunities, and resources available to them, they are
ideally suited to be first movers and to reap the agenda powers that go
along with it. If they want to shift the status quo by taking unilateral
action on their own authority, whether or not that authority is clearly
established in law, they can simply do it--quickly, forcefully, and (if
they like) with no advance notice. The other branches are then presented
with a fait accompli, and it is up to them to respond. If they are
unable to respond effectively, or decide not to, presidents win by
default. And even if they do respond, which could take years, presidents
may still get much of what they want anyway.
The bottom line, then, is that the Constitution's incomplete
contract sets up a governing structure that virtually invites
presidential imperialism. Presidents, especially in modern times, are
motivated to seek power. And because the Constitution does not say
precisely what the proper boundaries of their power are, and because
their hold on the executive functions of government gives them pivotal
advantages in the political struggle, they have strong incentives to
push for expanded authority by moving into grey areas of the law,
asserting their rights, and exercising them--whether or not other
actors, particularly in Congress, happen to agree.
This does not mean that presidents will be reckless in their
pursuit of power. Should they go too far or too fast, or move into the
wrong areas at the wrong time, they would find that there are heavy
political costs to be paid--perhaps in being reversed by Congress or the
courts, but more generally by creating opposition that could threaten
other aspects of their agendas. It is a matter of strategy. Presidents
have to calculate, ex ante, the costs as well as the benefits of any
attempt to expand their power and take action when the situation looks
promising. They have to pick their spots. But they will constantly be on
the lookout, ready to move, and quite capable of moving if that is what
they decide to do.
A Simple Spatial Model
Spatial models are a standard tool for exploring struggles among
political actors over policy and power. Such models are difficult to use
in this case, because some of the most important features of the problem
(discussed at length in the sections below) cannot readily be taken into
account. Nonetheless, we think it is useful at this point to consider
very briefly a simple model that helps illustrate the kind of leverage
presidents can gain from acting unilaterally.
Take a look at Figure 1. We have assumed that polities can be
arrayed along a single dimension and that players have ideal points
along this continuum. The president's ideal point is at P, and
Congress is treated as a one-house body whose median legislator's
ideal point is at [C.sub.m]. The president can veto congressional
legislation, but his veto will only be upheld if he can attract the
support of one-third of Congress--represented, in the figure, by all
members to the right of V, the ideal point of the legislator who can be
termed the veto pivot.
[Figure 1 ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]
In this simple scenario, consider what happens when policy is
generated according to classic constitutional rules: Congress makes the
laws, the president gets to veto. See Figure 1A. If the original status
quo were at [SQ.sub.1], Congress would simply pass new legislation
imposing [C.sub.m] as the new policy, and the president--although he
would like a further shift to the right--would have to accept this
outcome. Both would be better off, and Congress would actually get its
ideal point. Now compare what happens when the president is able to take
unilateral action, as depicted in Figure 1B. Here, the president can act
on his own to move policy from [SQ.sub.1] all the way to V, and this new
policy would be an equilibrium outcome. Congress would like to move
policy back toward [C.sub.m], but any move in that direction would be
successfully vetoed by the president. Thus, the power of unilateral
action allows the president to achieve legislative outcomes much closer
to his ideal point, while Congress is correspondingly worse off.
Note that the president does not get everything he might want. For
he would really prefer to move policy all the way to P. He cannot do so,
however, because Congress--with the support of the veto pivot--will be
able to stop him if he tries to shift policy to the right of V. Thus,
unilateral action does not give the president carte blanche. He is still
constrained by Congress, and he must be content with a measure of
moderation.
To get a different angle on all this, suppose that the original
status quo is [SQ.sub.2], a policy dose to the president's ideal
point. Under the classic model, in which Congress legislates and the
president can only veto (Figure 1A), Congress would enact a new policy
[SQ.sub.2*] much closer to its own ideal point. The president loses from
this shift in policy and would like to veto it. But because Congress has
strategically chosen it such that the veto pivot is just indifferent
between [SQ.sub.2*] and [SQ.sub.2], the president cannot mobilize enough
support to stop Congress from making the change. The president does, in
fact, have some power here: were it not for his ability to veto,
Congress would have moved policy all the way to C instead of stopping at
[SQ.sub.2*]. Nonetheless, the equilibrium outcome gives Congress a
beneficial shift in policy, and the president loses ground.
If the president had the power to act unilaterally in this same
situation, as depicted in Figure 1B, things would turn out much more
favorably. He would not have to accept Congress's shift in policy
from [SQ.sub.2] to [SQ.sub.2*] and could take action on his own to move
the status quo from [SQ.sub.2*] to V--using his veto to prevent any
movement away from this point. V would be the equilibrium outcome (as it
was in the earlier case of unilateral action). And although the
president would still lose some ground as policy moves from the original
[SQ.sub.2] to V, unilateral action allows him to keep policy much closer
to his ideal point--and farther from Congress's ideal point--than
would otherwise have been the case. He clearly has more power over
outcomes when he can act unilaterally.
This is a simple model that leaves out key aspects of the power
struggle. Congress, for instance, can write restrictive statutes in an
effort to limit the president's ability to act unilaterally, and
the courts can declare a president's actions illegal if he goes too
far. If these were put to effective use--a big if, as we will see--they
would obviously introduce additional constraints on the president that
need to be recognized. Far and away the most important factor omitted
from this model, however, and indeed from virtually all spatial models,
would have the effect of expanding the scope for presidential power
considerably. This is that Congress is burdened by collective action
problems and heavy transaction costs that make it extremely difficult
for that institution to fashion a timely, coherent response to
presidential action or even to respond at all. Until spatial models can
incorporate these fundamental features of Congress, they will
systematically overstate Congress's capacity for taking strategic
action--and understate presidential power.
We have to be wary, then, of putting too much stock in simple
models. Still, the one we have employed here does help to illustrate two
points that are quite central to our theoretical argument. The first is
that unilateral action can make a big difference in determining what
presidents are able to achieve--and this is why they value it and want
more of it. The second is that, even when they can act unilaterally,
they are constrained to act strategically and with moderation. They
cannot have everything they want.
Congress: Delegation and Constraint
Now let us return to the kinds of theoretical concerns that are not
so easily captured in these models. In our earlier section on ambiguity,
we concluded by noting that presidents are greatly advantaged by the
executive nature of their jobs. While there are good reasons for this,
it might seem that such a conclusion is premature--and indeed that, far
from being a boon to presidential power, the fact that presidents are
executives is ultimately their Achilles's heel. For even though
they have independent authority under the Constitution and are not
properly Congress's agents, they are still required to "take
care that the laws be faithfully executed." And this means,
presumably, that Congress can constrain presidential behavior through
the statutes that it writes.
It is true, of course, that what presidents can and cannot do is
shaped by the statutes they are charged with executing. And Congress has
the right to be quite specific in designing these laws, as well as the
agencies that administer them. If it wants, it can specify policy and
structure in enough detail to narrow executive discretion considerably,
and thereby the scope for presidential control. It can also impose
requirements that (if the courts agree) explicitly limit how presidents
may use their enumerated powers--as it has done, for instance, in
protecting members of independent commissions from removal and in
mandating civil service protections for most government personnel.
Yet statutory constraint cannot be counted on to work especially
well as a check on unilateral action by presidents. In the first place,
legislators may actually prefer broad delegations of authority on many
occasions, granting presidents substantial discretion to act
unilaterally. This can happen, for instance, (1) when their policy goals
are similar to those of presidents; (2) when they are heavily dependent
on the expertise and experience of the administration; (3) when they
want to avoid making conflictual decisions within the legislature and
thus find it attractive to "shift the responsibility" to the
executive; (4) when Congress, as a collective institution, really does not have specific preferences and can only deride on the broad outlines
of a policy; (5) when, in complex policy areas with changing
environments, it is impossible to design a decent policy that promises
to meet its objectives unless substantial authority is delegated to the
executive; and (6) when certain policies require speed, flexibility, and
secrecy if they are to be successful (Moe 1990; Epstein and
O'Halloran 1999). Most of these conditions, we should point out,
are more likely to be met in foreign than domestic policy, so there is
good reason to expect broad delegations to be more common in that realm.
When delegations are broad, presidential powers of unilateral
action are at their greatest. One might be tempted to think that they
are also innocuous in their effects on the balance of institutional
power--for, as long as presidents stay within the broad bounds set by
statute, they are simply following the will of Congress, and all is as
it should be. This would be something of a misconception, though. The
key issue is: who actually has power to make policy for the nation? And
in these cases, that power would rest overwhelmingly with presidents,
for with broad delegations of authority, they would be the ones making
virtually all the key choices about the content, meaning, and
consequences of policy. Whether or not presidents stay within
congressional boundaries, then, delegation itself puts expanded powers
into their hands that shift the institutional balance in their favor.
Congress will not always want to delegate broadly, however. Often,
in fact, legislators are likely to see the value in putting statutory
restrictions, perhaps highly restrictive ones, on what presidents can
do. Presidents, after all, have broad national constituencies, are less
susceptible to pressures from special interest groups, are concerned
about their historical legacies as strong national leaders, and in
general have different political stakes in policy than parochially oriented legislators do--and the coalitions behind particular pieces of
legislation, especially on domestic issues, will often have good reason
to fear that presidents might use any discretion delegated them in
unwanted ways. If so, they will want to constrain the president's
powers of unilateral action through narrow and strategically crafted
delegations (Moe 1990; Epstein and O'Halloran 1999).
This is not so easily done, though. Legislators have to reckon with the fact that presidents are pivotal players in the legislative process.
Presidents can veto any piece of legislation they want, and if they do,
it is exceedingly difficult for Congress to override them. (Empirically,
only about 7 percent of presidential vetoes have been overridden; see
Cronin and Genovese 1998). Since everyone is aware ex ante of how
consequential the veto can be, presidents will have a major say in
shaping the content of legislation--and as they press their demands,
they will be highly sensitive to how legislation stands to affect their
own formal power. Among other things, they will push hard for provisions
that give them as much discretion as possible, and they will seriously
discourage provisions that limit their prerogatives.
Even when restrictions are included in final bills, Congress faces
the problem of making them stick in practice. A president will not be
easy to control once governing shifts to his bailiwick. In part, this is
due to the same problem that owners face in trying to control the
management of a private firm, for managers--like presidents and their
agencies--have expertise, experience, and operational leverage that
allow them to engineer outcomes to their own advantage. Although
expected to faithfully execute the laws, managers have a very
substantial capacity to shirk. The problem that Congress faces, however,
is even more severe than this classic economic analogy can suggest. The
president possesses all the resources for shirking that the corporate
manager does, but his position is far stronger, precisely because he is
not really Congress's agent. He is not a subordinate, but a coequal
authority. As a result, Congress cannot hire him, cannot fire him, and
cannot structure his powers and incentives in any way it might like--yet
it is forced to entrust the execution of the laws to his hands. From a
control standpoint, this is a nightmare come true.
Finally, whatever the discretion contained in specific pieces of
legislation, and whatever opportunities for shirking they open up, it is
crucial to recognize that the president is greatly empowered by the
sheer proliferation of statutes over time. In part, the reasons are
pretty obvious. When new statutes are passed, almost whatever they are,
they increase the president's total responsibilities and give him a
formal basis for extending his authoritative reach into new realms. At
the same time, they add to the total discretion available for
presidential control, as well as to the resources contained within the
executive.
Less obviously, though, the proliferation of statutes creates
substantial ambiguity about what the "take care" clause ought
to mean in operation, ambiguity that presidents can use to their great
advantage (Corwin 1973, 1984). While it may seem that the burgeoning
corpus of legislative requirements would tie the president up in knots,
the aggregate impact is liberating. For the president, as chief
executive, is responsible for all the laws, and inevitably the laws turn
out to be interdependent and conflicting in ways that the individual
statutes themselves do not recognize. In the aggregate, what they
require of him is ambiguous. The president's proper role, as would
be true for any executive, is to rise above a myopic focus on each
statute in isolation, to coordinate policies by taking account of their
interdependence, and to resolve statutory conflicts by balancing their
competing requirements. All of this affords him enormous discretion to
impose his own priorities on government unilaterally and to push out the
boundaries of his own power--claiming all the while that he is
faithfully executing the laws.
Even though presidents are mere executives, then, charged with
taking care that the laws be faithfully executed, Congress cannot be
expected to use statutory constraints with great effectiveness in
restricting the expansion of presidential power.
Congress: The Capacity to Act and Resist
What can we say, more generally, about how Congress is likely to
respond to the presidential drive for power? For starters, we should
note that, when scholars and journalists consider almost any issue that
seems to pit Congress against the president, they tend to reify Congress--treating it as a unitary actor with its own objectives and
concerns, just like the president. The president and Congress are
portrayed as fighting it out, head to head, over matters of
institutional power and prerogative, each defending and promoting its
own institutional interests.
But this misconstrues things. Congress is made up of hundreds of
members, each a political entrepreneur in her own right, each dedicated
to her own reelection and thus to serving her own district or state.
Although all have a common stake in the institutional power of Congress,
this is a collective good that, for well-known reasons, can only weakly motivate their behavior. They are trapped in a prisoners' dilemma:
all might benefit if they could cooperate in defending or advancing
Congress's power, but each has a strong incentive to free ride in
favor of the local constituency.
What is likely to happen in Congress, then, when presidents take
unilateral action by issuing executive orders that shift the policy
status quo? The answer is that legislative responses (if there are any)
will be rooted in constituency. An executive order that promotes civil
rights, for example, will tend to be supported by legislators from urban
or liberal constituencies, because it shifts the status quo in their
preferred direction, while members from conservative constituencies will
tend to oppose it. The fact that this executive order might well be seen
as usurping Congress's lawmaking powers, or that it has the effect
of expanding presidential power, will for most legislators be quite
beside the point. Thus, if Congress tries to take any action at all in
responding to the executive order, the battle lines will be determined
by the order's effects on legislative constituencies, not by its
effects on Congress's power vis-a-vis the president. Even when
presidents are dearly taking action to push out the boundaries of their
power, therefore, Congress will not tend to vote or respond on that
basis and will not, as a result, be able to defend or promote its
institutional power very effectively.
While Congress is poorly equipped to defend its own interests, it
is also debilitated by a still more general problem: as a collective
institution, it is poorly equipped to take almost any kind of coherent,
forceful action. A maze of obstacles stands in the way of each
congressional decision. A bill must pass through subcommittees, full
committees, and floor votes in the House and the Senate; it must be
endorsed in identical form by both houses; and it is threatened along
the way by filibusters, holds, machinations over rules, and other
roadblocks. Every single veto point must be overcome if Congress is to
act. Presidents, in contrast, need to succeed with only one to block,
and thus preserve whatever status quo their unilateral action has
created.
Because of all these veto points, and because of all the collective
action problems arising from the parochial concerns of its many members,
the transaction costs of congressional action are enormous. Coalitions
must somehow be formed among hundreds of entrepreneurial legislators
across two houses and a variety of committees, which calls for intricate
coordination, persuasion, trades, and promises--and is continually
vulnerable, all along the way, to reneging and commitment problems.
Owing to scarce time and resources, moreover, members must also be
convinced that the issue at hand is more deserving than the hundreds of
other issues competing for their attention.
Party leaders can help to cut down on these transaction costs,
impose a modicum of order, and give Congress a certain capacity to act
and even to guard its power. But party leaders are notoriously weak, and
they are weak because their "followers" want them to be. Good
leadership means promoting the reelection prospects of members by
decentralizing authority, expanding their opportunities to serve special
interests, and giving them the freedom to vote their constituencies
(Mayhew 1974; Cox and McCubbins 1993). Overall, then, the veto-filled
process of generating legislation remains incredibly difficult and
costly and heavily weighted in favor of those who want to block.
Disabling problems are rampant, and they are built into the collective
nature of the institution. And because of all this, the best prediction
for most issues most of the time is that Congress will take no
action--especially if there is a strong and dedicated opponent, such as
the president, who wants exactly that.
Congress's situation is all the worse because its collective
action problems do more than disable its own will and capacity for
action. They also allow presidents to manipulate legislative behavior to
their own advantage, getting members to support or at least acquiesce in
the growth of presidential power. One basis for this has already been
established by political scientists: in any majority rule institution
with diverse members, so many different majority coalitions are possible
that, with the right manipulation of the agenda, outcomes can be
engineered to allow virtually any alternative to win against any other.
Put more simply, agenda setters can take advantage of the collective
action problems inherent in majority-rule institutions to get their own
way (McKelvey 1976). This is an ideal setup for the promotion of
presidential power.
Presidents can exercise two important kinds of agenda control in
their relations with Congress. The first is now part of the familiar,
textbook description of American politics: precisely because Congress is
so fragmented, the president's policy proposals are the focal
points for congressional action. The major issues Congress deals with
each year, as a result, are fundamentally shaped by what presidents
decide will be the salient concerns for the nation. While this kind of
agenda power is of great consequence, a second kind may well be even
more important for the institutional balance of power, yet it is rarely
recognized as such. This is the agenda power that presidents exercise
when they take unilateral action to alter the status quo. When they do
this, they present Congress with a fait accompli--a new, presidentially
made law--and Congress is then in the position of having to respond or
acquiesce.
Note the key differences between these forms of agenda control.
Under the first, presidential success ultimately requires an affirmative
act by Congress, and thus that Congress go through all the laborious steps necessary to produce new legislation--which is typically very
difficult, highly conflictual, time-consuming, and, in the final
analysis, unlikely to happen. This is why modern presidents have
incentives to shy away from the "legislative strategy" of
presidential leadership (Nathan 1983). Even with all their resources,
they can expect to have a hard time getting their programs through
Congress.
On the other hand, the second form of agenda control, rooted as it
is in unilateral action, gives the president what he wants
immediately--a shift in the status quo and perhaps a new increment to
his power--and depends for its success on Congress's not being able
to pass new (and veto proof) legislation that would overturn or change
it. Such a requirement is much more readily met, for it is far easier,
by many orders of magnitude, to block congressional action than it is to
engineer new legislation.
This is especially so when presidents get involved in the
legislative process, as they ordinarily will. Presidents have tremendous
resources to deploy on their own behalf. Their central position leaves
them ideally situated to exercise leadership, make side payments, and
cement deals. And to win, they merely need to block at one veto point,
which is a relatively easy matter. Even if Congress is somehow able to
manage an affirmative act of reversal, moreover, the president can still
exercise his own veto--and sustain it by mobilizing just one-third of
the members of one house to support him.
Usually, blocking will not even require all-out reliance on the
president's arsenal. Many legislators will gladly line up behind
the president. As we noted earlier in our civil rights example,
legislators will evaluate the presidential shift in the status quo in
terms of their constituency-based policy preferences, not in terms of
the institutional power struggle. If the president has thought ahead, at
least some and perhaps many of these legislators will find the new
status quo preferable to the previous one, and they will act to prevent
a reversal. In addition, for reasons that also (but less directly) arise
from constituency, the president can likely count on support from many
members of his own party. The combination of these two sources of
support should often be sufficient. If not, the president can rely on
his firepower to attract additional legislators into the
fold--legislators that, we should remember, are always ready to deal
when something of value to their reelection is offered in payment. All
things considered, then, presidents should lose these contests only
rarely.
This does not mean that presidents can be cavalier about taking
unilateral action. While it is exceedingly difficult for Congress to
reverse a presidentially made law, the probability of its doing so will
obviously depend on how the new law squares with legislative
preferences. The greater the number of legislators who prefer the old
status quo to the new one, and the more intensely they feel about
it--which turns on how great a departure the president has made from
their ideal points--the more likely it is that Congress will be able to
overcome its collective action problems and reverse. All preferences,
however, are not equally relevant here. While legislators may have
preferences on every issue under the sun, they only have strong
incentives to act on them when the issues are related to constituency.
When presidents act unilaterally, then, legislative preferences are most
likely to come into play to the extent that presidential action has an
adverse effect on constituency interests, particularly if those
interests are organized and powerful. The stronger the constituency
connection--and, given that, the greater the departure of presidential
action from what legislators want--the more motivated legislators will
be to mobilize a reversal.
Because presidents know this ex ante, however, this is another way
of saying that the issues on which they choose to act unilaterally, and
the distances they choose to shift the status quo, need to be chosen
strategically--and thus subject to legislative constraint. They have
incentives, clearly, to favor unilateral actions that are only weakly
related to constituency. And on these matters, they can afford to be
quite bold in their departures from legislative preferences. They need
to be more careful--and more moderate--when their actions have adverse
effects on important constituency interests. While these conclusions
apply generally to presidential incentives, an obvious implication is
that presidents should find foreign policy a much more attractive sphere
for taking bold unilateral actions, while in domestic policy they will
be more prone to incrementalism and moderation.
Constituency and the corresponding incentives toward presidential
moderation do not change the fact that, in the politics of unilateral
action, presidents hold virtually all of the cards. When presidents act
and Congress must reverse, presidents are heavily advantaged to get what
they want. There is one crucial consideration, however, that we have yet
to discuss and that gives Congress a trump card of far-reaching
consequence. This is the fact that Congress has the constitutional power
to appropriate money--which means that, to the extent that unilateral
actions by presidents require congressional funding, presidents are
dependent on getting Congress to pass new legislation that at least
implicitly (via appropriations) supports what they are doing. When
appropriations are involved, in other words, presidents cannot succeed
by simply preventing Congress from acting. They can only succeed if they
can get Congress to act--which, of course, is much more difficult and
gives legislators far greater opportunities to shape or block what
presidents want to do.
This is not a crippling constraint. The congressional
appropriations process is built around logrolling and omnibus appropriations bills; and specific items, especially if they have
powerful patrons, are likely to be funded (and funded routinely over the
years) even if they could not attract majority support standing on their
own. Thus, presidents do not have to get special legislation passed,
should they need funding. They only need to see that their funding
requests are successfully merged into the appropriations process, which
is a good deal easier to accomplish. Moreover, many unilateral actions
do not require legislative appropriations anyway. This is the case, for
instance, when presidents impose new rules on the way government
agencies interpret and implement policy--which is in fact a major way
presidents make law. They can also create agencies or programs that are
funded out of existing resources already available to the executive, and
only later (after they have had a chance to expand their support) seek
out funding from the legislature.
Nonetheless, the appropriations constraint remains very real.
Presidents are obviously best off if they can take unilateral actions
that do not require legislative appropriations, and they will have
incentives to do just that. Similarly, presidents will obviously not
want to initiate major new programs through unilateral action, for even
if the courts were to regard egregious instances of presidential
lawmaking as constitutional, their need for substantial budgetary
outlays would inevitably single them out for special legislative
attention and lead to a decision process that is no different than what
would have occurred had presidents simply chosen to seek a legislatively
authorized program from the beginning. When presidents do take
unilateral actions that require legislative funding, both the actions
and their funding requirements are likely to be moderate and to take
legislative preferences into account.
In the final analysis, presidents still hold substantial advantages
over Congress, due largely to the disabling effects of Congress's
collective action problems and to the relative ease with which
presidents can block any congressional attempts to reverse them.
Presidents are well positioned to put their powers of unilateral action
to use, as well as to expand the bounds of these powers over time. But
they cannot simply do what they want. They are constrained by
constituency and by the legislative power of appropriation. And largely
for these reasons, they will proceed with moderation, with an eye to
legislative preferences, and with biases that channel their behavior in
certain directions.
The Courts
If Congress cannot stop presidents from expanding their powers,
then perhaps the courts can. For presidents are exercising powers
nowhere explicitly granted them by the Constitution, and the Supreme
Court has every right to step in and prohibit them from doing these
things. While we have argued that constitutional ambiguity works to the
great advantage of presidents, allowing them to rush into grey areas of
the law and claim new turf for themselves, the fact is that the Supreme
Court has the right to say what the Constitution means--and thus to
resolve any and all ambiguities. In a given case, the Court can strike
down a president's unilateral action as unconstitutional or as
inconsistent with his executive responsibilities under statute. More
generally, it can issue rulings that spell out in explicit,
all-encompassing terms what the boundaries of presidential power are,
and it can set these boundaries as narrowly as it likes.
But is this what we should expect the Court to do? Or is it
possible that the Court would tend to do just the opposite by upholding
presidential actions and promoting an expansive view of presidential
power? To answer these sorts of questions, we need a theoretical basis
for understanding how the Court is likely to approach issues of
presidential power.
Supreme Court justices are appointed for life. They are not readily
controlled by other political actors, are not beholden to political
constituencies, and have substantial autonomy to chart their own
courses. Thus, they may use judicial decisions to pursue their own
ideologies or policy agendas. They may also act on their scholarly
beliefs in the proper meaning of the law and the constitution. In either
event, they are likely to care about the reputations they are building
for themselves as respected public servants--their historical legacies.
They are likely to care as well about upholding the reputation of the
Court as a whole, for their own legacies are heavily dependent on the
prestige of the institution. Because there are only nine justices,
moreover, they are far better able than Congress to act on their common
institutional interests.
In some sense, then, the judges on the Supreme Court can do what
they want in resolving the ambiguities of presidential power. They have
the autonomy to clamp down on presidents, if that is what their policy
interests or legal philosophies or the integrity of the institution
require. And they have the autonomy to do just the opposite, depending
again on how they see the issue. Similarly, their autonomy allows them
to safeguard the prestige of their institution by responding to public
opinion and other aspects of the political environment. When presidents
take unilateral actions that are distinctly unpopular, the Court can add
to its prestige by declaring their actions illegal. And when presidents
take unilateral actions that are popular, the Court can add to its own
prestige by upholding him.
The Court is inherently something of a wild card, therefore, and
cannot be counted on to give presidents whatever they want. Presidents
can engineer Congress's decisions by manipulating its collective
action problems. But they cannot interfere with or participate in Court
derisions in the same way, and are vulnerable as a result to exercises
of judicial autonomy. Nonetheless, even within the judiciary there are
fundamental forces working to the advantage of presidents, encouraging
the Court to uphold presidential actions and promote an expansive view
of presidential power. The Court may sometimes be a problem for
presidents, even on important issues, but on the whole it is far more
likely to support and legitimate the kind of imperialism presidents are
naturally inclined to practice.
Two basic factors tend to give the Court an orientation favorable to presidents. The first is that presidents appoint all members of the
Court. It is conventional wisdom that presidents appoint justices whose
ideologies and legal philosophies are consistent with their own (or are
perceived to be, ex ante) and thus that presidents who are Republican or
Democratic, conservative or liberal, tend to make different types of
appointments to the Court. This only makes sense given the incentives of
presidents to promote their own agendas and exercise their own brand of
leadership. It is also perfectly plain, however (although it is less
often recognized in the literature), that presidents of all ideological
and partisan stripes have a common interest at stake in these
appointments as well, namely, an interest in putting individuals on the
Court who will uphold and promote the power of the presidency.
This is not so hard to do. All potential nominees for the Court
have track records and reasonably well-developed reputations. Their
prior judicial decisions, articles, speeches, and public actions,
together with what is known about them informally via acquaintances and
friends, give presidents a great deal of information about their
intellectual orientations and thus about their likely behavior on the
Court. These reputations are imperfect, but presidents are still in a
position to make well-informed selections. Thus, they dearly have the
opportunity as well as the motive to screen out individuals who favor a
restrictive view of the presidency, and to promote the candidacies of
individuals who--in addition to having compatible ideologies and
philosophies--are thought favorable to presidential power.
When presidents make nominations to the Court, the Senate has to
concur. Won't the Senate tend to reject candidates who take a
favorable stance toward presidential power? The answer is generally no.
Again, Senators are primarily oriented by reelection and thus by the way
issues affect their state constituencies. They are only weakly motivated
by concerns about the balance of institutional power. In evaluating
judicial nominees, they will be responsive to constituency pressures and
therefore to the implications that a candidate's philosophy or
ideology might have for important policies of relevance to their state
support coalitions. For the most part, issues of presidential power are
not part of their calculus and will not get in the way.
The weakness of the appointments strategy is that it is ultimately
based on an unenforceable contract. For once an appointee assumes
office, presidents lose all control over him, and he can use his
autonomy to pursue on an intellectual trajectory that confounds prior
expectations--as Earl Warren did after his much-regretted appointment by
President Eisenhower. Despite this imperfection, however, the
appointments strategy stands to work well for presidents on average.
They have the freedom to pick pro-presidential types for the bench, they
have good information on which to base their picks, and, as these
justices proceed to make their own decisions, they can be expected to
behave "according to type" most of the time. This is enough to
tilt the Court in the president's favor.
In addition to appointments, there is also a second (and perhaps
more important) factor that works to the president's advantage with
the Courts. This one is rooted in the basic design of separation of
powers: under the Constitution, the Court is not empowered to enforce
its own decisions but must rely on the executive branch to enforce them.
While the Court is said to be an independent branch of government, then,
its power and prestige are profoundly dependent on the executive. The
decisions that it renders, however well reasoned or legally significant
in the abstract, are meaningless slips of paper unless they are put into
effect, and they can only be put into effect if the executive is willing
to implement them. If the executive refuses to cooperate--or more
likely, if it purposely acts very slowly, ineffectively, or in ways that
alter or distort judicial intent--the policy pronouncements of the Court
threaten to be empty, and its integrity and social standing as a
political institution are put seriously at risk (Corwin 1984).
It has long been recognized by legal scholars that the Court cannot
simply act on principle and let the chips fall where they may, for this
sort of strategy would ultimately prove self-destructive (e.g., Bickel
1962). Judges have incentives to be pragmatic and to exercise a kind of
self-restraint that is suited to the precarious position they find
themselves in. Among other things, this means that they have incentives
to choose their cases and fashion their decisions not just with
reference to what is "right," given their philosophies or
ideologies, but also with reference to whether and how well these
decisions are likely to be enforced by the executive--which turns on the
interests of the executive and on a range of political factors that can
shape those interests. It is of great relevance, obviously, if the
executive is opposed to a decision and not inclined to implement it
effectively (or at all). It is also relevant if the public is opposed,
for not only would this tend to damage the Court's standing in
itself, but it would also give the executive political reasons not to
implement the law with any zeal. As a general matter of strategy, then,
the Court should have incentives to take these sorts of factors into
account and craft its decisions accordingly. Judicial decisions should
therefore be attuned to politics--and to the executive.
When the Court is dealing with issues of a local nature, it can
take advantage of divisions within the executive to promote enforcement.
With an issue like school desegregation, for instance, the Court may not
have confidence that local school boards or police will carry out its
decisions, but it may have greater confidence that, if the latter do
not, then state or federal executives--with different constituencies and
different interests--will step in and see that the law is implemented.
When it deals with issues affecting the presidency, however, its
strategic situation is less favorable. There is no higher executive
authority than the president, so no other executive is going to come
riding to the Court's rescue to force the president into action.
The president, moreover, is in charge of the entire federal executive
branch and thus has a major say in how all the Court's decisions
are enforced at that level. Thus, the Court has a double problem. If it
decides against the president on an issue the president cares about, he
may evade compliance. And if it decides against the president on lots of
issues--and is, in some sense, anti-president in its general rulings
over time--the president could well become anti-Court in his general
enforcement responsibilities throughout the executive branch,
threatening the entire edifice of Court decisions (Strum 1974).
The Court has reason, then, to be friendly to presidents. And this
means, above all else, being favorable to them on the issues they care
most about: those involving presidential power and its exercise. They do
not, moreover, have the same incentive to be friendly to Congress on
issues of institutional power or to preserve some sort of balance
between the two branches. While Congress does have certain leverage over
the Court--it can change its size, for instance, or change its
jurisdiction--legislators do not have the same intense concern about
institutional power that presidents do and are unlikely to retaliate
against the Court on these grounds. If they tried, the president would
still be in a position to veto, and public outrage would probably stop
them before the president had to anyway. Congress does not have a club
over the Court's head. The president does.
What, then, should we expect the Court to do when presidents take
unilateral action to further their own political leadership, and when
they are challenged by antagonists who claim they have no legal right to
do what they are doing? In general, we should expect the Court to uphold
the presidency and its rights to act, at least most of the time. But
this is not always straightforward, given all the other
factors--intellectual, philosophical, political--that come into play in
these decisions, and given the Court's interest in maintaining its
independence and integrity. How can the Court support presidents and
still honor its other concerns? Among other things, it can do the
following:
1. The Court can simply avoid deciding many issues that arise about
institutional power, arguing that these are matters that the president
and Congress have to resolve on their own. This protects the Court from
the risk of alienating presidents. It is also an indirect way of giving
presidents what they want, because Congress is not equipped to win this
kind of struggle.
2. The Court can issue rulings favorable to presidents, but justify
its decisions by appearing to give due deference to the legislature.
More specifically, it can argue that presidential action under statutory
law must be consistent with what Congress is presumed to want, and then
proceed to construct a rationale by which this criterion is met. In
fact, this is easy to do without compromising presidential interests.
For Congress's collective action problems, combined with the
zillions of statutes already on the books, make it entirely unclear what
the institution's "will" is--and this gives the Court
tremendous scope for arguing that, almost whatever presidents are doing,
it is consistent with the "will of Congress."
3. The Court can decide against presidents when, perhaps as a
result of unwise ex ante political calculations, presidents take actions
that are highly unpopular with the public, Congress, and opinion
leaders. This is unlikely to occur very often if presidents play their
cards right. But it is functional in the grander scheme of things,
because it allows the Court to enhance its own prestige, demonstrate its
independence, and still decide in favor of presidents most of the time.
The Supreme Court is not the whole story, of course. All challenges
to presidential action will start out, and most will end, in the lower
federal courts--and judges at these lower levels will have somewhat
different incentives. They will not be as concerned about the prestige
or integrity of the court system as a whole, and, as numerous as these
judges are, they cannot be expected--just as legislators cannot--to take
concerted action to protect their institutional interests. Nonetheless,
all lower judges are presidential appointees and thus can be subjected
to pro-presidency selection criteria. And they still have to be
concerned about the enforceability of their orders should they rule
against the president. More important still, they are part of a
hierarchy: they are expected to make decisions that conform to principles enunciated by the Supreme Court, and their decisions are
likely to be overturned if they get out of line. This is particularly
true on issues of real salience to the Court, as issues of presidential
power surely are. Thus, there is a reasonable basis for thinking that
the pro-presidency bias will not just be restricted to the Supreme
Court, but will be reflected (if imperfectly) in derisions throughout
the federal court system.
Let's be clear. The Court is capable of limiting the
president's powers of unilateral action, and indeed is more
threatening in this regard than Congress is. The Court has substantial
autonomy and coherence as an institution, and it may choose to act
against him. Nonetheless, the best bet--owing largely to the
president's control over appointments and to the court
system's profound dependence on the executive for the enforcement
of its rulings--is that the courts will ordinarily be supportive and
refrain from imposing serious limits on presidential expansionism.
Conclusion
In this article, we have tried to develop a novel perspective on
presidential power. It is thoroughly institutional, and thus a clear
departure from the long-dominant approach in the presidency field, which
sees the president as an individual whose skills, personality, and
experiences profoundly shape his success in office. Yet it is also
different from most of the institutional analyses that have been applied
to the presidency thus far, particularly those coming out of the
rational choice school that is increasingly dominating the new
institutionalism. For among these works, the presidency has not been the
central institutional concern. And when presidents have turned up in
their models, the focus has been on the impact of specific formal
powers, almost always the veto.
It is time, we think, for institutionalists in the rational choice
tradition to begin developing a genuine theory of the presidency, one
that sees presidents as institutional leaders whose powers are much more
broadly based--and that understands presidential power not simply in
terms of the apparent requirements of formal structure but also in terms
of the profoundly important ambiguities of structure that provide much
of the dynamic behind American institutional politics (and, we suspect,
institutional politics generally).(1)
There is, of course, much about the presidency that needs to be
understood. But the feature of the modern presidency that gives it so
much driving force in politics, and that distinguishes it most clearly
from the presidency of earlier times, is its capacity for unilateral
action--a feature that has so far gone unappreciated and virtually
unstudied, even within the mainstream of the presidency field. Our aim
here has been to develop a theory of this important aspect of
presidential power and, in so doing, to help lay the foundation for a
broader institutional theory of the presidency.
Shorn of its details, the argument we offer here is pretty simple.
Presidents have incentives to expand their institutional power, and they
operate within a formal governance structure whose pervasive
ambiguities--combined with advantages inherent in the executive nature
of the presidential job--give them countless opportunities to move
unilaterally into new territory, claim new powers, and make policy on
their own authority. Congress has only a weak capacity for stopping
them, because its collective action problems render it ineffective and
subject to manipulation. The Supreme Court is capable of taking action
against presidents, but is unlikely to want to most of the time and has
incentives to be sympathetic.
This does not mean that presidents are unchecked in their quest for power. They can only push Congress or the Court so far before these
institutions react, so there are constraints on how far presidents can
go. They will moderate their actions accordingly. Moreover, presidents
are political animals, and this is an important check in itself on what
they are willing to do. Generally speaking, they want to take actions
that are popular, and they know that bold action in one realm of policy
could have political repercussions that undermine the presidential
agenda in other realms. Thus, even if presidents figure they can take
unilateral actions that will go unchecked by Congress or the Court, they
may often decide not to move on them or to take much smaller steps than
their defacto powers would allow.
The grander picture, then, is not one of presidents running
roughshod over Congress and the Court to dominate the political system.
Rather, it is a picture of presidents who move strategically and
moderately to promote their imperialistic designs--and do so
successfully over time, gradually shifting the balance of power in their
favor.
We believe this theoretical perspective has merit, and we think it
is broadly consistent with the best evidence available on the subject
(reviewed in Moe and Howell 1999). But we do not pretend to be making
some sort of definitive statement. We are moving ahead to formalize and
elaborate on the theory (see Howell 1999), and we are in the process of
collecting and analyzing a historical data set on presidential orders
and on congressional and judicial responses to them. This is very much a
work in progress, then, and we hope that it will be received as such.
What we hope, above all else, is that the arguments we have presented
here will help stimulate new theory and research on the
presidency--particularly on the president's powers of unilateral
action, which are too important to overlook any longer.
AUTHORS' NOTE: This article is a revised version of the
theoretical section from Moe and Howell (1999). The latter also contains
an extended review of the historical evidence on unilateral action,
along with an assessment of how this evidence bears on the theory.
Readers interested in the empirical side of the analysis are invited to
turn to this earlier article. We publish the revised theoretical
argument here, in stand-alone form, mainly as a way of communicating the
ideas more effectively to an audience of presidency scholars.
(1.) There are, of course, institutional approaches to the
presidency that fall outside of rational choice and already take a much
broader view of the foundations and exercise of presidential power. The
most notable of these is Skowronek (1993), which essentially takes a
historical-contextual approach. While we cannot explore these matters
here, the question for the field is whether these alternative approaches
are likely to generate more powerful theories than rational choice is,
once rational choice theorists really tackle the subject in earnest.
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Terry M. Moe is a professor of political science at Stanford
University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He does
research on various aspects of American political institutions, as well
as on the theory of institutions more generally. His work on the
presidency includes The Politicized Presidency; Presidents,
Institutions, and Theory; and The Presidency and the Bureaucracy: The
Presidential Advantage.
William G. Howell is a graduate student in political science at
Stanford University. He is current's writing a dissertation on the
politics of unilateral action.
TERRY M. MOE WILLIAM G. HOWELL Stanford University