Changing preschool enrolments in post-socialist Central Asia: causes and implications.

Giddings, Lisa ; Meurs, Mieke ; Temesgen, Tilahun 等

INTRODUCTION

Preschool is often analysed in its childcare, or custodial, function, as facilitating women's labour force participation (Blumberg, 1981; O'Connor, 1988; Craig, 1981). But for preschool-aged children, preschool can also contribute importantly to human capital development, especially among poor children (Danzinger and Waldfogel, 2000).

By international standards, preschool enrolments were high under socialism, although rates in Central Asia lagged those in other areas (Riazantsev et al., 1992, p. 27). Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, preschool enrolment rates have plummeted in Central Asia (UNICEF, 2003, p. 81). This may leave large numbers of children without preparation necessary to succeed in school and to be included in the region's post-socialist development.

To better understand the factors underlying declining preschool enrolments in Central Asia, we examine preschool enrolments in Kyrgyzstan over the period 1993-1998. Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest countries in Central Asia, and has seen the preschool enrolments fall to the lowest level among Central Asian countries, with the exception of Tajikistan (UNICEF Transmonee, 2005). We evaluate demand- and supply-side explanations for low enrolments, and use data from the Ryrgyzstan Poverty Monitoring Survey to develop a logistic model of preschool enrolment. On the demand side, we examine the impact of households' need for custodial care, household ability to pay for care, and cultural/social factors (mother's education and ethnic background). This last variable builds on a previous finding in Bulgaria of significant differences in preschool enrolment dynamics across ethnic groups. On the supply side, we consider the impact of preschool availability and quality. Through this model, we hope to broaden understanding of household decisions to invest in preschool, and to assist policy makers in improving preschool attendance as a form of school preparation and early human capital accumulation, especially among poorer households.

Current policy recommendations often target access as a key to raising preschool enrolments (eg Henscher and Passingham, 1996). While national-level data currently show excess supply of preschool places, we find that access to a preschool is the most important determinant of enrolment. However, we also find that demand-side factors including the availability of non-working adults to provide home care, household cash income per capita, and social background have a significant impact on enrolment.

THE ROLE OF PRESCHOOL

Preschool services can be oriented towards achieving different goals, and we begin by distinguishing between custodial and human capital-enhancing childcare (Connelly et al., 1996, p. 9). Preschool is probably most often understood in its custodial form, as a service that facilitates women's labour force participation. Childcare advocates highlight both the distributional and efficiency implications of providing such a service. By expanding women's work options, preschool 'accompanies and facilitates women's citizenship' and is thus a prerequisite for equality between the sexes (Blumberg, 1981; O'Connor, 1988; Craig, 1981). By enabling the expansion of women's labour force participation, custodial childcare may also enhance economic efficiency by allowing women to move into higher productivity occupations (O'Connor, 1988, p. 24).

Preschools provide more than custodial care, however. Early childhood education can improve cognitive development and other outcomes (Danzinger and Waldfogel, 2000), thus increasing human capital formation, labour productivity and growth. Studies of the impact of state-subsidised preschool education in France, for example, reveal a strong correlation between preschool attendance and performance in the first grade, especially among children from poorer backgrounds (Bergmann, 1996, p. 33). Since children have been found much more likely to drop out if they receive poor grades or repeat a grade in early years, early childhood education may be an effective means of improving overall human capital acquisition (Currie and Thomas, 1995, p. 359-360). In the US, the Head Start preschool programme has been used to improve learning and social skills, as well as the health status of poor children. A recent review that focused only on well-structured studies of publicly funded US preschool programmes found large, positive, and significant long-term effects on schooling and earnings, and negative effects on problems such as crime and participation in various welfare programmes, including Temporary Aid to Needy Families (TANF) (Garces, Thomas and Cuttle, 2000).

A recent, similarly well-structured study in Germany found positive impacts of early childhood education on schooling outcomes of the seventh graders, but only among families of immigrant (disadvantaged) children (Spiess et al., 2003, p. 17). Although studies of preschool impact in developing countries are scarce, a recent study of a government preschool programme in Bolivia, based on a large data set and careful matching techniques, found strong, positive impacts of preschool on tests of health, cognitive and psychosocial development among children who attended at least 7 months (Behrman et al., 2004). As many of the studies suggest that positive impacts of preschool are concentrated among children from more disadvantaged backgrounds, expanded preschool enrolments may enhance equity as well as efficiency and growth.

If preschool is valued mainly for custodial purposes, then the recent radical declines in enrolments across the former socialist countries may not be the cause for concern. Where unemployment is rising and wages falling, there may be less of an efficiency argument for broad use of custodial care. Reduced availability of custodial care may have implications for gender equity, but with many unemployed males, even these implications are not certain.

A more troubling interpretation of fails in preschool enrolments during transition results if we consider the implications for human capital formation. Declining shares of preschool-aged children in childcare may result in lower attendance and success in primary school and beyond, and represent declining investments early human capital, which will have dire consequences for future labour productivity. Indeed, the UNDP reports that the number of children dropping out of school in Central Asia is increasing, and that this problem is underestimated in official government statistics (2001b). Similarly, a study of Kazakhstan reports a negative impact of declining kindergarten enrolments on primary schooling, through the inclusion of more poorly prepared pupils in the crowded classrooms of poorly funded primary schools (Henscher and Passingham, 1996). Reduced access to childcare may therefore contribute to further increases in inequality, in a region where inequality is already rising rapidly.

PRESCHOOL UNDER SOCIALISM

Former socialist economies were characterised by high rates of labour force participation for both men and women. Female labour force participation rates ranged from about 65 per cent in Poland to 90 per cent in Bulgaria in the mid-1980s (UNICEF, 1999, p. 24; European Commission, 1995). In Kyrgyzstart, about 85 per cent of working age men and 75 per cent of working age women were employed in 1989 (UNICEF, 1999).

The high labour force participation rates resulted in fairly widespread need for childcare. Most socialist countries had a two-tier system of state-run childcare. This included a system of nurseries for children from birth to 2 years of age, and a system of preschools, for children aged 3-6 years. These facilities were organised through the Ministries of Health (nurseries) or Education (preschools) or by state enterprises. While relatively few children from 0 to 2 years attended nurseries, preschool enrolments were strong across many of the socialist economies. In 1988, in the European Republics of Russia, Byelorussia and Moldova, enrolment rates among preschool-aged children were around 70 per cent (Cornia, 1995, p. 69). Preschool enrolments in Central Asia lagged significantly behind those in other Soviet Republics. Notable progress was made in many areas in the decades between 1970 and 1990, with enrolments in Kazakhstan rising from 30 per cent in each age group in 1970 to 53 per cent in 1988. In Kyrgyzstan, enrolments rose from 18 per cent to 30 per cent over this period (Riazantsev et al., 1992, p. 27). In 1989, about 31 per cent of preschool-aged children attended preschool in Kyrgyzstan (UNICEF, 1999).

In addition to the impact of the above-mentioned high labour force participation rates, high enrolments can be attributed to highly subsidised fees in the centres, and reasonably good quality of care. Although the socialist states used the preschools to instil the characteristics of obedience and ideological adherence, they were also used to assure early childhood education and school preparation (Henscher and Passingham, 1996), as well as public health. Jean Ipsa, in her book Child Care in Russia in Transition (1994), documents the provision of a safe, stable, and loving environment, in which teachers actively promoted the development of gross and fine motor skills, cooperative behaviours, ecological awareness, and basic math and reading skills. In addition, all students attending the preschools were regularly examined by a nurse and received a regular schedule of vaccinations. The relatively strong health and education indicators seen today in former socialist countries can be attributed, in part, to the preschool policies of the era (UNICEF, 1999; Anderson et al., 2004).

The relatively lower enrolments in Central Asia may be attributed to a number of factors. They were clearly related to the lower supply of childcare facilities. The 1980s were characterised by excess demand for places, with preschools enrolling 140 students for each 100 places (compared to 107 children per 100 places in the USSR as a whole) (Cornia, 1995, p. 36), and still long waiting lists persisted (Klugman et al., 1997). The resultant crowding may also have reduced quality. In Kyrgyzstan, 74 per cent of preschools were run by state enterprises in 1991, and these were characterised by higher quality of care as compared to those run by municipalities (Klugman et al., 1997, p. 189). Finally, the continued dispersion of population in rural areas may have contributed to the reduction in access to available centres (65 per cent of Kyrgyz residents continue to live in rural areas) (UNDP, 2001a, p. 26).

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN KYRGYZSTAN

Former socialist countries have seen a drastic decline in enrolments of preschool-aged children in childcare since 1991, and Central Asian countries are no exception. In Kyrgyzstan, net enrolment rates for children 3-6 years fell from 31 per cent in 1989 to 8.7 per cent in 1998, while enrolment rates fell from 53 per cent to 12.4 per cent in Kazakhstan, and from 36.8 per cent to 16.1 per cent in Uzbekistan. In Tajikistan, where enrolments started at a lower level (16 per cent), they fell less dramatically, but to the lowest level in Central Asia, 6 per cent (Transmonee Database, 2005).

Below, we analyse factors underlying preschool enrolment in Kyrgyzstan. To examine household choice to send children to preschool, we draw on recent literature on household choice of the form of care for young children (Meurs and Giddings, 2006; Anderson et al., 2004; Klugman et al., 1997; Fong and Lokshin, 2000). We develop a simple model that includes both supply- and demand-side factors. The two supply-side factors considered are availability and quality of preschools. Even if the supply of preschools is adequate, however, households may choose not to enrol children for a variety of reasons. We consider three factors underlying household demand for preschool. Households may value preschool only for its custodial function. If there are adults available in the household to provide care (grandparents or working age adults not employed outside the home), then households may choose to keep children at home. Alternatively, parents may view preschool as superior to home care as an investment in their children's futures (Connelly et al., 1996; Fong and Lokshin, 2000). In this case, ability to pay fees and transport costs, rather than the availability of substitute care, may underlie decisions about preschool attendance. Thirdly, cultural factors may influence the households' perspectives on the value of preschool.

Access to preschools has declined over the post-socialist period. Centres previously run by state enterprises, which had been characterised by higher quality care than that found in municipal-run centres, closed as enterprises were privatised or liquidated. The number of municipal centres also declined, as financing responsibilities were transferred to municipalities, but these have become a relatively more important source of care, increasing from 26 per cent to 55 per cent of all centres in Kyrgyzstan by 1994 (Klugman et al., 1997, p. 189). Overall, the number of preschools fell dramatically--from 1,696 in 1990 to about 468 in 1998 (NSC, 1995, p. 93; Ministry of Education, 2001, p. 2) (Table 1).

Still, the decline in available centres does not appear to explain the overall decline in enrolments. While the number of preschools fell to 28 per cent of the 1990 level by 1998, enrolments fell more rapidly to 22 per cent of previous levels (Ministry of Education, 2001, p. 2). The number of enrolled children per available 100 spaces fell from 140 in 1990 to 87 in 1993 to 75 in 1995, before rising again to 86 in 1998 (Table 1). By 1993, Kyrgyzstan experienced an overall excess capacity in preschool, and the number of excess spaces increased into the 1990s (Klugman et al., 1997, p. 190; NSC, 1995, p. 93). (1) Of course, excess capacity in some areas co-exists with lack of access in others. In a model of kindergarten availability in Kyrgyzstan, Anderson et al. (2004, p. 141) found that in 1993 and 1997 kindergartens were significantly less prevalent in poorer regions, while more likely to be found in areas with better education, more heavily Slavic populations, with more developed manufacturing bases.

As in other post-socialist cases (Meurs and Giddings, 2006; Klugman et al., 1997), lower preschool enrolments may be an outcome of lower demand. There have been dramatic, post-socialist declines in employment and wages. Kyrgyzstan, an early reformer, experienced a rapid collapse of output from 1991 to 1995. This was followed by rapid growth thereafter, but by 1998 GDP had achieved only 60 per cent of 1989 levels. With declining production, average real monthly wages fell to 49.6 per cent of 1990 levels in 1993, before falling further and then rising back to 49.1 per cent in 1997 (about $40 at 1993 exchange rates) (Transmonee Database, 2005; Pomfret, 2003, p. 454). For many households, a large (and increasing) share of their income comes from subsistence production and is not, consequently, available for cash expenditures such as childcare. Additionally, in 1995 many firms also paid wages with significant delays (Anderson and Pomfret, 2000, p. 507), leaving households with less available for such expenditures.

At the same time, earnings inequality increased significantly in Kyrgyzstan, with the Gini coefficient rising from 0.26 in 1989 to 0.43 in 1998 (UNICEF, 2003, p. 93), leaving those at the bottom of the distribution with severely reduced earnings. Female labour force participation remained high and the gender wage gap narrowed, but men continued to earn more than women as wages fell. There were also significant ethnic wage gaps, with Russians earning more than ethnic Kyrgyz. Uzbeks earned less than Kyrgyz in 1993, but by 1997, they earned significantly more. Those living in the urban north of the country earned more over the period than those in other regions (Anderson and Pomfret, 2000, p. 512).

At the same time that earnings declined, the fees for use of preschools (and related transport) increased and the collection of fees has become better enforced. Some households may simply be unable to afford preschool fees and other related expenses, including transport, even if they see the preschools as providing an important boost to children's human capital accumulation. The UNDP reports that the number of children dropping out of school is related to declines in family income and increases in the costs of education and related expenses (transport) (UNDP, 2001b, p. 13, 77).

Declines in employment have lagged behind the declines in wages. The number of officially unemployed persons jumped radically from only a couple of thousands of workers (0.2 per cent of the labour force) in 1993 to 3.1 per cent in 1998 (NSC, 2002, p. 58; UNICEF, 2003, p. 92). Clearly, effective levels of unemployment are higher than suggested by these modest official figures, with workers clinging to 'employed' status in order to retain other firm-related benefits (including access to preschool). At the same time, 'employed' workers have faced large arrears in wage payment and limited demands on their time.

More women were recorded as unemployed in this period (women were 58 per cent of the unemployed) and their share of the paid labour force fell somewhat, from 51 per cent to 46 per cent from 1993 to 1996 (UNDP, 2001a, p. 61). Some researchers report women taking on more of the income-generating responsibilities as male employment and earnings fall (Narayan and Petesch, 2002, p. 292). As a result, women may be shifting to a greater extent into the informal economy. Overall, the apparently modest declines in the need for custodial care seem unlikely to provide a full explanation for the radical drop in preschool enrolments. However, in households where parents see no human capital advantages to preschool over home care, unemployed adults available for childcare may result in a corresponding decline in enrolment in preschool.

There is also evidence that the quality of preschools has declined over the period, and this may affect parental choice. Decentralisation of government has shifted some of the financial responsibility for education onto local governments, which have not received an equivalent transfer of financial resources (UNDP, 2001a, p. 40). With few resources available for maintenance, supplies, or even meals and snacks (Klugman et al., 1997), parents must provide most materials themselves (Henscher and Passingham, 1996). Under these conditions, centres may be an unappealing option both in terms of custodial care and school preparation. Quality of transportation may also affect attendance, as many routes have been discontinued (Narayan and Petesch, 2002).

Finally, households may be expressing preferences for home care, which were repressed during the socialist period. There might be a cultural preference for home care in general, or there may be concerns among minority ethnic groups regarding increased use of the Kyrgyz language, and cultural teachings, in schools. Studies of other countries have found that parental education has a significant impact on households' valuation of preschool, presumably by affecting the preference of parents for schooling (Strauss and Thomas, 1995). More educated parents are more likely to invest in preschool. In the section below, we examine the impact of these economic and cultural factors on household decisions to send children to preschool.

The declines in preschooling in post-socialism have been the subject of some previous analysis. However, none of these analyses have considered the relative role of supply, custodial needs, ability to invest, and cultural factors as we do here. Klugman et al. (1997) and Fong and Lokshin (2000) examine the changing preschool enrolments somewhat indirectly, through their impact on women's labour force participation. Klugman et al. (1997) find evidence that custodial needs and cultural factors (the presence of non-employed adults in the household and mother's education) influence attendance in Kazakhstan. Fong and Lokshin find that ability to pay affects enrolment in Romania (2000). Similarly, modelling enrolment outcomes in Bulgaria, Meurs and Giddings (2006) find that ability to pay, need for custodial care, and cultural (ethnic) factors all influence enrolment. Anderson et al. (2004) find that both access and cultural factors (mother's education) are significant.

EXPLAINING ENROLMENTS IN KYRGYZSTAN

The data

In the 1980s, the World Bank designed a survey to measure the living standards of the population in developing countries. This survey has become the Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) and has been conducted in more than 40 developing countries. Five rounds of such surveys, the Kyrgystan Poverty Monitoring Survey (KPMS), have been conducted in the Kyrgyz Republic on behalf of the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, with technical assistance from Research Triangle Institute.

The KPMS is designed to be a nationally representative survey capable of measuring the standard of living in the Kyrgyz Republic. The KPMS surveys were conducted in fall 1993, and then annually from fall 1996. We use the 1993 and 1998 (the first and the latest that is publicly available) surveys here to examine post-socialist preschool enrolment dynamics. As seen in Table 1, the greatest drop in preschool enrolments occurred in the period 1989-1993, the period during which Kyrgyzstan, an early reformer, experienced radical changes in production, income, and social service provision (Pomfret, 2003; UNDP, 2001b). Since survey data are available only in the beginning in 1993, we cannot examine causes of this change in enrolments. Instead, we examine the decision to enrol children (or not) during the period 1993-1998, attempting to isolate the factors related to that decision.

A stratified sample of 2,000 households was randomly selected for the 1993 KPMS. The 1998 KMPS had a sample size of 2,979 households. Both surveys contain information on the composition of the household, economic activities, health, education, migration, and labour. The implementation of the household questionnaires was accompanied by the implementation community questionnaires (Population Point Surveys), which collected information about local infrastructure, services, and other amenities. These can be matched to the household data, to examine the impact of community-level variables on household outcomes.

These surveys provide the only nationally representative, probabilistic sampling of households for Kyrgyzstan. It is difficult to say, without other survey data for comparison, anything definitive about the data quality. Angus Deaton (1997, pp. 35-40)argues that feedback from users of LSMS (of which the KPMS is an example) in general has been positive, and the Kyrgyz data is typically in line with that collected by other methods by the National Statistical Office.

In order to examine preschool attendance in the Kyrgyz Republic, we selected a sub-sample of children between the ages of 3 and 6 years (inclusive). The 1993 sample consisted of 963 children. However, complete data for the regressions was available for only 674 children. The 1998 sample consisted of a sample of 1,601 children in this age range, of whom 1,476 had complete data for inclusion in the regressions.

Preschool attendance

In 1993, the majority of surveyed children 3-6 years of age were cared for only by household members in the 7 days prior to when the questionnaire was administered. Only 43 children between the ages of 3 and 6 years (six per cent of the sample) attended kindergarten, nursery, extended school day group, or the like. The situation remained relatively unchanged in 1998, when 88 children (six per cent of the sample) were reported to attend a kindergarten or nursery. These numbers conform approximately to those provided by the National Statistical Committee for 1998, but are significantly below officially reported numbers (13 per cent) for 1993 (NSC, 1998). In 1998, all children attended nearly full time, with daily hours in care ranging from 7 to 12.

There are three types of institution that a child can attend: state-owned, enterprise-owned and privately owned centres. In 1993, over 70 per cent of children attended kindergartens or nurseries that belonged to the state, while most others attended those belonging to a ministry or enterprise, and one individual attended a privately owned childcare institution. By the 1998 survey, we saw a slight increase in the role of state or public institutions over enterprise-run institutions, but use of private kindergartens had not increased.

Underlying factors

Building on the model outlined above, we begin by examining the factors underlying enrolment choice separately. We then develop a logistic model of preschool attendance to examine the relative impact of these factors.

Even if households recognise the importance of preschool as an investment in early human capital, economic hardship may prevent enrolment. The Kyrgyz survey data suggest no simple relationship between a household's economic status and attendance, however. In 1993, households whose preschool age children attended preschool had a mean per capita monthly household income approximately equal to that of households whose children do not attend (47.9 soms per month, compared to 49.8 (2)) (about $8 at 1993 exchange rates). Considering only cash income, which could be used to pay for things like preschool, households of children not attending had significantly lower incomes, however (10 soms compared to 26 soms) (Table 2). (3) Income may not have been particularly important to schooling decisions in 1993, because preschool was not costly for those households that used it. The majority of households with children attending in 7 days prior to the survey claimed that they had not paid for the service. This supports a 1995 finding by ABD Associates of widespread non-payment for childcare services (Klugman et al., 1997, p. 186).

By 1998, however, households with children attending preschool reported having significantly higher average per capita incomes than those whose children were not attending (613 soms, approximately $29 at 1998 exchange rates, compared to 461 soms). This result does not seem to be the result of the endogeneity of mothers' incomes. Excluding mothers' incomes, households not enrolling children still had lower per capita incomes--439 soms compared to 527 soms for households with children enrolled in preschool. As before, the gap in cash income exceeds the gap in overall income and differs significantly between groups (Table 2). In 1998, no households claimed not to pay for the service. Clearly, by 1998 the cost of preschool had become an issue for some households: when asked why a child who previously attended preschool had ceased to attend, 33 per cent of such cases reported that it was too costly. Over this period, preschools appear to change from a subsidised service to a costly service afforded only by better-off households.

With rising official unemployment between 1993 and 1998, we see a declining apparent need for custodial care. In 1993, there was an average of 1.6 working adults in households of children 3-6 years, while the number of non-working adults averaged 1.1. In 1998, households had an average of 1.7 working members, and 1.9 non-working adult members. However, the availability of this labour varied widely. In 1998, 22 per cent of households had no non-working adult present, while another 26 per cent had only one non-working adult. In both years, households with children not attending preschool reported approximately twice as many non-working adults (Table 2).

Cultural factors may also drive decisions about preschool. There is little evidence of cultural preferences for educating one sex rather than the other in Kyrgyzstan. In both years, girls were slightly more likely to attend kindergarten than boys (Table 3) (6 per cent of girls attend, compared to 8 per cent of boys in 1993, and 5 per cent of girls and 6 per cent of boys attended in 1998) (Table 3).

We do see significant differences in preschool attendance by ethnicity, however. Kyrgyzstan's ethnically mixed population is about 60 per cent Kyrgyz, 16 per cent Russian, and 14 per cent Uzbek (UNDP, 2001a, p. 60). The rest of the population was divided among a large number of other ethnicities. Russian and other children of Slavic nationalities (Ukrainian, Belorussian) were most likely to attend preschool (22 per cent of Slavic 3-6 year olds attended in 1993, 24 per cent in 1998), while Kyrgyz children had a lower likelihood of attending (4 per cent in 1993, 5 per cent in 1998). Over the period, Uzbeks appear to have radically altered their use of kindergartens, becoming more like Kyrgyz in their behaviour (about 7 per cent attended in 1993 and 1996, but by 1998, only 2 per cent of Uzbek children were reported to attend) (Table 3).

The ethnic differences in attendance may be related to differences in incomes between the groups. Per capita income of Slavic households is significantly higher than that for households from other ethnic groups. Ethnic differences in attendance might also be related to ethnic differences in preferences regarding childcare, or to other regional differences like preschool accessibility, since ethnic groups tend to be concentrated in particular regions of the country (with Russians more concentrated in urban areas with a higher concentration of preschools).

Considering the impact of parental education on preschool attendance, we used dummy variables for primary school or less, beyond primary to complete secondary school, and beyond secondary school. (4) These measures capture significant differences in the population, with a little over 50 per cent of the mothers reporting at least primary but no more than secondary school in both years, and approximately another 40 per cent reporting more than secondary in both years. In both years, children of mothers with tertiary education were much more likely to attend preschool than those of mothers with primary or secondary education only (Table 2). In 1998, the year for which years of schooling are reported, mothers of enrolled children had significantly more years of schooling (12.3 years, on average) than those of unenrolled children (10.8 years).

Finally, access and quality vary significantly. We matched population point data to household data in order to examine the impact of local availability of preschools on enrolment decisions. This is not a perfect measure. Households living near the border of the population point may have access to a preschool in a neighbouring population point, even if their own population point does not have one. The measure provides the best available indication of local availability, however.

We see an apparent decline in access to preschools over this period. From 1993 to 1998, the share of population points reporting state-run preschools fell from 80 per cent to 53 per cent, while the share reporting the presence of a private facility fell slightly from 3 per cent to 2 per cent. If we look at the number of survey households affected by these differences, we find that an even larger share of surveyed households lived in population points without access. In 1993, 66 per cent of households lived in areas served by preschools (state or private). In 1998, only 45 per cent of households lived in a served area. One per cent reported having a privately run preschool in their population point. When asked why a child had stopped attending preschool, in 1998 33 per cent of such households responded that the kindergarten had closed.

Quality of preschool is of course very difficult to measure, and parents were not asked to specifically evaluate quality of preschools. In the 1998 survey, however, households were asked to evaluate whether schools (not only preschools) in the area had adequate buildings, blackboards, books, and other materials. Using these measures of adequacy of six different school conditions, we created a proxy for school quality in 1998, an index varying from 0 to 6. In 1998, households with children attending preschool gave a significantly higher quality ranking than did households without children attending preschool (Table 2).

To examine the relative impact of these factors, we develop a logistic model of whether or not a particular child is attending preschool at the time of the survey. (5) In this model, we are attempting to predict the probability of preschool enrolment. To do this, we examine the impact of the household's (lack of) need for custodial care (number of non-working adults in the household, Adult Not Working), ability to pay for preschool (cash income per capita, PerCap HH Income, in hog values), (6) and whether there is preschool available in the population point (School in PSU). To capture the impact of cultural factors, we also consider the impact of the sex (male = 1) and ethnicity of the child. We use three dominant ethnic groups (Kyrgyz, Slavic, which includes both Russian and other Slavic nationalities, and Uzbek), with Kyrgyz as the excluded category. (7) We also examine the impact of mother's education on attendance (Mother's Education). (8) Because mother's education was coded differently in the 1993 and 1998 surveys, we use dummy variables for primary education or less, and more than secondary education, as compared to the reference category of some or complete secondary education. Finally, we control for age. (9) Means and standard deviations of the variables are presented in Table 2.

We first estimate the model separately for 2 years, then pool the data and estimate the model for the period 1993-1998. For the pooled data, we include a year dummy (1993 = 1). We expect the ability to pay, centre availability and quality, and mother's education to be positively related to attendance, while the availability of non-working adults in the household is expected to reduce the likelihood of attendance.

The results of this model are as seen below in Table 4. We report marginal effects (Delta P), which reflect the marginal effects of a one-unit change in the dependent variable on the outcome, at the mean. Overall, we see a set of very consistent relationships over this period, although the model performs slightly better in 1998 than 1993. Pseudo [R.sup.2]'s varied from 0.22 in 1995 to 0.29 in 1998. These values are relatively strong results for this type of cross-sectional data and indicate that the model does well at explaining enrolment.

In all three logit regressions, the availability of a preschool had the largest significant impact on attendance, although the magnitude of the impact declines slightly from 1995 to 1998. Having a preschool in the Population Point led to almost a 6 percentage point increase in the likelihood of attendance in 1993 and 5 per cent in 1998. Ethnicity also has a significant impact on attendance, even controlling for (regionally differentiated) access to centres and household income. Children in Slavic households were significantly more likely (5 percentage points) to be attending preschool than were Kyrgyz children, whereas Uzbek children were statistically indistinguishable from Kyrgyz.

Both household cash income per capita and the number of non-working adults available for childcare also had a significant impact. The impact of cash income was very small, and surprisingly consistent between the 2 years, despite the apparent change in the enforcement of preschool fees. A one-unit change in log income increased the likelihood of enrolment by only 0.3 percentage points. The impact of available non-working adults was also small, although much larger than the impact of an increase in income, and also remained fairly stable over the period. One additional adult available for childcare reduced the likelihood of attendance by about 1.4 percentage points in 1993 and 1 percentage point in 1998. Finally, having a mother with post-secondary education had a significant positive impact on a child's attendance. The impact of mother's education was large, slightly larger than the negative impact of non-working adults and, like other effects, remained fairly stable over the post-socialist period. Having a mother with tertiary, as opposed to secondary, education increased the likelihood of attending preschool by almost 2 percentage points in both years.

In 1998, when the proxy for preschool quality is available, this variable does not have a significant impact on attendance. In the pooled regression, the year dummy (1993 = 1) is negative and significant. As the economy recovered after 1993, the likelihood of attending preschool increased.

Finally, the control variables of age and sex did not have a significant impact on preschool attendance. Parents are not more likely to enrol children in preschool as the age of school entry approaches, and they are not significantly more likely to send boys than girls to preschool.

These results support findings of other work on preschool attendance in post-socialist cases. Like Anderson et al.'s (2004) analysis of preschool attendance in Kyrgyzstan, we find that access to preschools and mothers' education are important factors in supporting attendance, while household choices about preschooling do not differ significantly by the sex (or age) of the child. Like Meurs and Giddings (2006), in their analysis of preschool attendance in Bulgaria, we find that both households' ability to pay and the availability of non-employed adults in the household also affect preschool attendance, as does ethnicity.

Conclusions

Childcare enrolment rates have fallen significantly in Central Asia since the early 1990s. They seem to have stopped falling by the mid-1990s and even recovered very slightly, but the very low current rates may be a cause for concern on both equity and efficiency grounds. Since investment in preschool can create significant positive externalities, and economic inequality can create significant negative externalities, there may be a strong rationale for government intervention, even in a time of extremely tight budgets (Aslaksen et al., 2000, p. 98). In this paper, we have attempted to contribute to an understanding of the factors underlying current low enrolments. This may help target resources and improve the likelihood of effective government intervention.

Aggregate national level data show that enrolments have fallen faster than available preschool places, suggesting that declines in enrolment are a demand-side, and not a supply-side, phenomenon. This outcome has been noted by researchers in other post-socialist cases as well (Meurs and Giddings, 2006; Klugman et al., 1997). Our household survey data show dramatic declines in households' access to preschool, however. In our logit regressions, access to a preschool is consistently the most important significant factor in explaining preschool attendance. This suggests that, despite what is seen in aggregate data, supply-side factors play an important role in low enrolments. Preschool supply is lumpy. A school cannot be established to serve the demand of only a few households, and many households may go unserved in areas where demand does not meet a critical level, even as surplus places exist in other areas.

On the demand side, (low) need for custodial care plays a significant role in household choice. Many households have adult labour available for childcare. Ethnic differences are also significant. But these do not appear driven by fears that minority group children will be poorly served by government schools (as seen in the Bulgarian case, for example). In fact, ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbek children are significantly less likely than Slavic children to attend Kyrgyz government-run preschools. Krygyz and Uzbek children are more likely than Slavic children to be living in less-developed, rural areas, but the ethnicity effect persists when controlling for centre availability and income. Further investigation into Kyrgyz and Uzbek families' use and non-use of preschools will be needed if there is to be effective policy to boost attendance. For the moment, specific policies to encourage the enrolment of girls do not appear necessary.

Household income is also a significant constraint on enrolment, but after controlling for other factors the impact of income is small, despite increases in the enforcement of fee payment. There may therefore not be strong grounds for targeted childcare subsidies. Rather, direct support for establishing and maintaining centres in poor areas and further investigations into population preferences regarding preschool seem like the most effective manner of addressing current low enrolments.

The question of what drives household decisions about preschool enrolment is of particular importance because the effects of poor school preparation will be felt in the labour force for years to come. As more children from disadvantaged backgrounds enter school poorly prepared and perform poorly in their first years of primary school, drop-out rates are likely to be exacerbated, undermining Central Asia's high literacy rate and contributing to an overall downward trend in development level.

Acknowledgements

We wish to thank Sibel Selcuk and Zamira Satarkulova for research assistance, and participants in our 2004 EEA conference panel and an anonymous reviewer for helpful comments on the paper.

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(1) Children per place may not be the best measure of capacity. In 2002-2005, Kyrgyzstan had a relatively high pupil-teacher ratio in preschool: 21 compared to 12 in Bulgaria and 18 in France (UNESCO, 2005). Using a European measure, no excess capacity would exist.

(2) In fact, households of children attending preschool had slightly lower incomes, but the difference is not statistically significant.

(3) These numbers may appear low, but they are very close to those reported by the UNDP for 1993 (48.3 soms per capita) (2001). Grootaert and Braithwaite (1998) argue that income may be more systematically underestimated in household surveys of transition economies than others. But in 1993, the income data is also distorted by the non-payment of wages noted above. For the weeks of the survey, households might therefore report no income at all, but then receive a large sum later, when back-wages (reduced by inflation) were finally paid. Our numbers are lower than the expenditure-based figures reported by Anderson and Pomfret--177 soms per month (2000). But Anderson and Pomfret's numbers are based on expenditures per adult equivalent in all households (not just those with pre-school aged children, and thus include households with older, more experienced workers) and, as Pomfret and Anderson note, reported expenditures systematically exceed reported income. We have no reason to believe that any tinder reporting of income varies in a systematic way across the sample however, so cross-sectional measures of the impact of income's impact on household decisions may not be affected by any under-reporting.

(4) Educational coding across the 2 years was not identical, making it difficult to use the continuous variable years of schooling for 1993. We also considered the impact of fathers' education, but found it insignificant.

(5) Anderson et al. (2004) also develop a model of kindergarten enrolment. They do not consider economic variables such as households' ability to pay and need for custodial care, however, but confine their investigation to demographic variables such as household size, sex and age of the child, ethnicity and parent education, as well as availability of kindergarten in the locality. We compare our results with theirs where relevant below.

(6) When the need for custodial care is measured by mother's employment, income and the need for custodial care are not independent. However, by using total number of non-working adults as our measure of the need for custodial care, we separate household income per capita and the need for custodial care--the use of grandparent labour, for example, does not imply a reduction in income. We measure cash income here as regular monetary income: wages, pensions and stipends. Total household income also includes agricultural income, much of which is imputed from subsistence production in the survey. Although subsistence production supports households, it cannot be used to pay for schooling. We have also estimated the model using a measure of total household per capita income. The total income measure is not significantly correlated with enrolment. To take the natural log of the income variable, we substituted 0.01 for zero in the cash income measure.

(7) Members of other, small ethnic minorities are combined with Kyrgyz due to coding problems.

(8) Mother's education and per capita cash income are correlated at a very low level, with a correlation coefficient of 0.09-0.17 in the 2 years.

(9) Although regional differences are significant in Kyrgyzstan, we did not include a regional dummy here because of the inclusion of other variables which capture these regional differences, including income, ethnicity, and access to preschool. A variable indicating number of siblings was included in previous versions of the equation, but was not significant.

LISA GIDDINGS (1), MIEKE MEURS (2) & TILAHUN TEMESGEN (3)

(1) Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, 1725 State Street, La Crosse, WI 54601, USA. 608.785.5297. http://www.uwlax.edu/faculty/giddings/

(2) American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20016, USA. E-mail: mmeurs@american.edu

(3) The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. Phone: (202). 473-9181

Table 1: Preschool availability and enrolment in Kyrgyzstan, 1990-1998

 1990 1993 1998

Preschools 1,696 998 468
Per cent enrolled 31.3 13.4 8.7
Pupils per place 140 87 86

Sources: NSC, 1995, p. 93; UNICEF, 2003, p. 81; Ministry of Education,
2001, p. 2; Deti v Stranakh, 2001.

Table 2: Descriptive statistics

 Total sample Enrolled

 Mean S.D. Mean S.D.

1993 n=674 n=43
Sex, M=1 0.51 0.50 0.42 0.50
Age 4.58 1.12 4.7 1.11
PC Cash Income 11.09 25.51 26.29 * 35.74
Adult Not Work 1.06 1.22 0.53 * 0.83
School in area 0.66 0.48 0.98 * 0.13
Mom Primary Ed 0.06 0.24 0 0
Mom Tertiary Ed 0.41 0.49 0.67 0.47
Uzbek 0.14 0.35 0.16 0.37
Slavic 0.09 0.30 0.32 * 0.47
School quality NA NA NA NA

1998 n=1,476 n=1,388
Sex, M=1 0.52 0.50 1.44 0.05
Age 4.49 1.11 4.44 1.04
PC Cash Income 183.43 180.32 384.93 309.77
Adult NW 1.86 1.61 0.83 * 1.02
School in PSU 0.45 0.50 0.90 * 0.30
Mom Primary Ed 0.05 0.21 0.03 0.18
Mom Tertiary Ed 0.42 0.40 0.74 * 0.44
Uzbek 0.07 0.25 0.02 ** 0.15
Slavic 0.06 0.23 0.23 * 0.42
School quality 3.80 1.50 4.10 ** 1.49

 Not enrolled

 Mean S.D.

1993 n=631
Sex, M=1 0.52 0.50
Age 4.6 1.12
PC Cash Income 10.06 * 24.36
Adult Not Work 1.1 * 1.24
School in area 0.64 * 0.48
Mom Primary Ed 0.07 0.25
Mom Tertiary Ed 0.40 0.49
Uzbek 0.14 0.35
Slavic 0.08 0.27
School quality NA NA

1998 n=88
Sex, M=1 1.49 0.05
Age 4.49 1.11
PC Cash Income 170.66 160.69
Adult NW 1.92 * 1.62
School in PSU 0.42 * 0.49
Mom Primary Ed 0.05 0.21
Mom Tertiary Ed 0.40 * 0.40
Uzbek 0.07 ** 0.25
Slavic 0.05 * 0.21
School quality 3.79 ** 1.49

Source: authors' calculations.

NA = not applicable. * Difference in means significant at P<0.00;
** Difference significant at P<0.10.

Table 3: Per cent enrolled in preschool by group, for groups
represented by dummy variables, Kyrgyzstan

 1993 1998

Male 7.6 6.4
Female 5.2 5.5
Slavic 21.5 23.5
Kyrgyz 4.2 5.3
Uzbek 7.3 2.1
Mom primary ed 0.0 4.4
Mom secondary ed 4.0 2.5
Mom tertiary ed 10.4 10.5

Source: authors' calculations.

Table 4: Logistic regression, determinants of child attending
preschool in Kyrgyzstan

 1993 1998
 n=674 n=1,601
 Delta P S.E. Delta P S.E.

School in PSU 0.005 * 0.014 0.051 * 0.389 *
Adult Not Working -0.014 ** 0.006 -0.010 0.123 *
PerCap HH Income 0.012 ** 0.001 0.003 0.098 **
Sex -0.009 0.008 -0.003 0.245
Age 0.001 0.004 -0.002 0.112
Slavic 0.053 *** 0.029 0.029 0.340 **
Uzbek 0.006 0.013 -0.008 0.761
Mom primary ed NA **** 0.005 0.696
Mom tertiary ed 0.82 ** 0.011 0.019 0.288 *
School quality NA -0.001 0.097
Year NA NA
Constant
Pseudo [R.sup.2] 0.22 0.29

 Pooled
 n=2,150
 Delta P S.E.

School in PSU 0.052 * 0.008
Adult Not Working -0.012 * 0.002
PerCap HH Income 0.003 * 0.003
Sex -0.003 0.004
Age -0.002 0.002
Slavic 0.029 * 0.013
Uzbek -0.008 0.007
Mom primary ed 0.005 ** 0.008
Mom tertiary ed 0.019 * 0.006
School quality
Year -0.013 * 0.005
Constant
Pseudo [R.sup.2] 0.27

NA = not applicable.

* Significant at P < 0.01.

** Significant at P < 0.05.

*** significant at P < 0.10.

**** The variable mom primary edu and the cases where
mom primary edu=1 were dropped from the 1993
regression because all mom primary edu=1 cases failed
to attend preschool. In other words, if the mother
had primary education or less, the child had no chance
of attending preschool in 1993. This accounts for
very few cases (41).

Source: authors' calculations.