The persuadable public: the 2009 education Next-PEPG Survey asks if information changes minds about school reform.
Howell, William G. ; Peterson, Paul E. ; West, Martin R. 等
What do Americans think about their schools?
More important, perhaps, what would it take to change their minds?
Can a president at the peak of his popularity convince people to rethink
their positions on specific education reforms? Might research findings
do so? And when do new facts have the potential to alter public
thinking? Answers to these questions can be gleaned from surveys
conducted over the past three years under the auspices of Education Next
and Harvard's Program on Education Policy and Governance (PEPG).
(For full results from the 2009 survey, see www.educationnext.org; for
the 2007 and 2008 surveys see "What Americans Think about Their
Schools," features. Fall 2007, and "The 2008 Education
Next-PEPG Survey of Public Opinion," features, Fall 2008).
In a series of survey experiments, we find a substantial share of
the public willing to reconsider its policy prescriptions for public
schools. But this responsiveness is not uniform: presidential appeals
are more persuasive to fellow partisans than to those who identify with
the opposition party, research findings have the greatest impact when an
issue remains unsettled, and learning basic facts has the biggest impact
when those facts are not well known. None of this comes as a surprise,
until one considers how stable aggregate public opinion has been over
time.
[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]
Individual Volatility but Collective Stability
The opinions expressed by individuals, when surveyed on political
issues to which they have not given much thought, can appear so fragile
as to be meaningless. More than one psephologist has shown that it is
not uncommon for people, when repeatedly asked the same question, to
give a positive response the first time, offer a negative one on the
second occasion, and then return to a positive position the third time
around. In such situations, opinions seem to be so lightly held they
lack any content whatsoever.
Our own data likewise reveal a fair amount of volatility in the
views expressed in the three Education Next--PEPG surveys by individual
respondents, many of whom participated in multiple years. Of those asked
to grade the nation's public schools in both 2008 and 2009, for
example, only 59 percent assigned the same grade both years. Among those
who gave a grade of "A" or "B" in 2008, 46 percent
awarded a grade of "C" or lower in 2009.
Numerous respondents also expressed different views on
controversial policy issues across survey years. Among those who either
completely or somewhat supported merit pay in 2008, 34 percent did not
give that support one year later. Conversely, 29 percent of respondents
who either completely or somewhat opposed the policy in 2008 did not
express that opposition the next year. Similar churning is evident in
the responses to questions concerning single-sex public schools, charter
schools, and national standards.
The flip-flop that characterizes as much as one-third of individual
responses does not produce equally large fluctuations in aggregate
public opinion, however. On the contrary, the percentage of Americans
holding to a particular point of view typically remains stable from one
year to the next. On two-thirds of the domestic issues studied by
political scientists Benjamin Page and Robert Shapiro, opinion did not
change by more than 5 percentage points, despite the fact that years
separated the fielding of different surveys. In the aftermath of major
events--wars, economic recessions, or a terrorist attack--the views of
the public as a whole may change abruptly and dramatically. More
commonly, though, public opinion either holds firm or eases slowly in
one direction or another.
Thinking on education policy follows the general pattern. In the
three years of Education Next--PEPG surveys, we found little change in
the responses to many of the questions posed in identical or similar
ways across successive years (see Figure 1). Public opinion held steady
on such issues as the introduction of merit pay for teachers, setting of
uniform educational standards across the country, and the desirability
of single-sex education.
A Constant Public (Figure 1)
On many issues, public opinion changes little from one year to the
next.
Percentage
* Support * Oppose * Neither Support nor Oppose
Merit Pay Single- National
Sex Schools Accountability
Standards
2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009
Support 45% 44% 43% 37% 34% 73% 69% 72%
Oppose 31% 28% 27% 25% 29% 27% 30% 28%
Neither Support not 24% 28% 30% 37% 36%
Oppose
Questions
Merit Pay
Do you favor or oppose basing a teacher's salary, in part, on his or
her students' academic progress on state tests?
Single-Sex Schools
2008 and 2009: Some people have proposed that public school districts
offer parents the option of sending their child to an all-boys or
all-girls school. What do you think about this proposal?
National Accountability Standards
2007: Under No Child Left Behind, should there be a single national
standard and a single national test for all students in the United
States?
2008 and 2009: For holding schools accountable, should all state
governments adopt the same set of educational standards and give
the same tests in math, science and reading?
SOURCES: Education Next-PEPG surveys 2007, 2008, 2009
Note: Table made form pie chart.
Nor did the public's evaluation of American schools change
much between 2007 and 2009, despite the media drumbeat of negative
information about dropout rates and test scores. Indeed, the percentage
of those surveyed willing to give the nation's schools an
"A" or a "B" slipped by just four points, from 22
percent in 2007 to 18 percent in 2009. Meanwhile, the share of adults
giving schools a "D" or an "F" hovered around 25
percent throughout the three-year period (see Figure 2).
Consistent Grades (Figure 2)
America's school grades slide downward, but only slightly.
2007 2008 2009
A or B 22% 20% 18%
C 55% 54% 57%
D or F 24% 26% 25%
Questions
2009: Students are often given the grades A, B, C, D, and Fail to
denote the quality of their work. Suppose the public schools
themselves were graded in the same way. What grade would you
give the public schools in the nation as a whole?
SOURCES: education Next-PEPG surveys 2007, 2008, 2009
Note: Table made form pie chart.
What accounts for the differences between individual and aggregate
public opinion? Undoubtedly, part of the explanation is measurement
error. Some of those answering our survey questions may have simply
misread or misunderstood the questions in one year or the other, so
their opinion seems to have changed when in fact it did not. Ordinarily,
that kind of error balances itself out, as mistakes by one individual
offset opposite errors by another.
But it seems unlikely that a third of our respondents would make
such mistakes, and a substantial body of research on political behavior
suggests that something else is going on as well. One prominent theory
emphasizes the influence of public discourse. When people answer a
survey item, they often draw upon a recent media report they have heard
or conversation they have had with friends, relatives, or co-workers.
Individual responses, then, vary from week to week as people are exposed
to different claims. Collective opinion, however, remains constant so
long as the general discourse does. If that theory is correct, then
opinion in the aggregate changes only when public discourse
shifts--either by a major event or with the introduction of a new fact
or a new political force.
On some education issues, public discourse has changed since 2007.
For instance, support for the federal No Child Left Behind Act has
eroded, as evidence accumulated that the federal law was not living up
to the promise of its grossly overstated name and politicians in both
major parties found it to be an easy target (see Figure 3). Between 2007
and 2008, the share of adults who thought the law should be renewed
(with no more than minor changes) fell by 7 percentage points. Support
for the law stabilized after 2008, however, and roughly half the
population still supports its reenactment with no more than modest
revisions. And as we saw in previous years, a randomly selected group of
respondents who were asked about "federal accountability
policy" rather than "No Child Left Behind" expressed even
higher levels of support.
Support for No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Stabilizes after 2008
(Figure 3)
But NCLB, the title, remains less popular than the concept of federal
accountability.
2007 2008 2009
Reenact federal accountability law with no more 71 57 60
than minor changes
Reenact NCLB with no more than minor changes 57 50 49
Questions
Reenact NCLB
2007: As you may know, the No Child Left Behind Act requires states
to set standards in math and reading and to test students each year
to determine whether the standards are being met. This year, Congress
is deciding whether to renew the No Child Left Behind Act. What do
you think Congress should do? Should they ... (a) Renew the Act as
is, (b) Renew with minimal changes, (c) Renew with major changes,
(d) Not renew at all?
2008 and 2009: As you may know, the No Child Left Behind Act requires
states to set standards in math and reading and to test students
each year to determine whether schools are making adequate progress,
and to intervene when they are not. This year, Congress is deciding
whether to renew the No Child Left Behind Act. What do you think
Congress should do? Should it ... (a) Renew the Act as is, (b)
Renew with minimal changes, (c) Renew with major changes, (d) Not
renew at all?
Reenact Federal Accountability Law
2007: As you may know, federal legislation requires states to set
standards in math and reading and to test students each year to
determine whether the standards are being met. This year, Congress
is deciding whether to renew this federal legislation. What do you
think Congress should do? Should they ... (a) Renew the Act as is,
(b) Renew with minimal changes, (c) Renew with major changes, (d)
Not renew at all?
2008 and 2009: As you may know, federal legislation requires states
to set standards in math and reading and to test students each
year to determine whether schools are making adequate progress,
and to intervene when they are not. This year, Congress is deciding
whether to renew this federal legislation. What do you think Congress
should do? Should it... (a) Renew the Act as is, (b) Renew with
minimal changes, (c) Renew with major changes, (d) Not renew at all?
SOURCES: Education Next-PEPG surveys 2007, 2008, 2009
Note: Table made form bar graph.
Similarly, as the current recession deepens, we see hints of
growing taxpayer resistance to the rising cost of education. Support for
increased spending on public education fell from 51 to 46 percent
between 2007 and 2009. Confidence that spending more on schools would
enhance school quality fell by a similar amount, from 59 to 53 percent.
Still, these changes remain modest. Facing the most significant economic
downturn since the Great Depression, most Americans continue to support
increased spending on their local public schools.
What would it take, then, to move aggregate public thinking
decisively in one direction or another? Might influential public
figures, research findings, or factual knowledge lead at least some
portions of the American public to update its thinking? To find out, we
divided the more than 3,000 respondents to our 2009 survey into randomly
chosen groups. The first group was simply asked its opinion about a
policy question, while the second (and often a third or fourth) group
was given some additional piece of information, such as the
president's position on the issue, a research finding, or a key
fact. By comparing answers given by the different groups, which should
be similar in composition, it is possible to gauge the impact of these
additional sources of information on the public's views. (For more
methodological details, see sidebar on page 29.)
Professors or Politicians:
Who Is More Influential?
We fielded our survey in March of 2009, when newly elected
president Barack Obama enjoyed public approval ratings above 60 percent.
The timing of the survey provided an ideal opportunity to estimate the
impact an endorsement by a popular president can have on policy views.
To ascertain the president's influence, we conducted some
simple experiments. On three topics--merit pay, charter schools, and
school vouchers--one group of survey respondents was asked its opinion
without any special prompt. Another group was first told the
president's position on the issue before being asked for its own. A
third group was instead told about evidence from research on the
policy's effects on student learning. We did not specify a specific
study, as the point was not to estimate the influence of any particular
piece of research but rather the potential impact such evidence might
have.
Merit Pay: When asked for an opinion straight out, a slight
plurality of Americans sampled--43 percent--supported the idea of
"basing a teacher's salary, in part, on his or her
students' academic progress on state tests." Twenty-seven
percent opposed the idea, with the remaining 30 percent undecided. As
noted above, that pattern of opinion has hardly budged since 2007.
Such stability over time, however, masks a propensity of some
Americans to alter their views in light of an appeal by a popular
political leader. Those informed of President Obama's support for
merit pay favored the idea by 13 percentage points more than those not
so informed (see Figure 4). Obama's backing had a particularly
dramatic impact on African Americans, whose support jumped by 23
percentage points. Even many teachers were persuaded. Initially, only 12
percent of those not informed of Obama's opinion thought merit pay
a good idea, but that number jumped to 31 percent among those told of
the president's position. Obama's endorsement caused support
among Democrats to rise from 41 to 56 percent. Among Republicans, too,
backing for the idea rose, albeit by a lesser amount (from 48 to 59
percent).
Who Is More Powerful? Presidents or Professors? (Figure 4)
Policy research, if communicated widely, can influence opinion almost
as much as the position of a popular politician on an issue.
Percentage
Merit Pay
No President's Research
Information Position is Evidence
Positive is
Positive
Who Support When Told ... 43% 56% 49%
Who Oppose When Told ... 27% 21% 23%
Neither Support nor Oppose When 30% 22% 28%
Told ...
Charter Schools
No President's Research
Information Position is Evidence
Positive is
Positive
Who Support When Told ... 39% 50% 53%
Who Oppose When Told ... 17% 14% 11%
Neither Support nor Oppose When 44% 37% 37%
Told ...
School Vouchers
No President's Research
Information Position is Evidence
Positive is
Positive
Who Support When Told ... 35% 24% 25%
Who Oppose When Told ... 42% 52% 48%
Neither Support nor Oppose When 24% 23% 27%
Told ...
SOURCES: Education Next-PEPG surveys 2007, 2008, 2009
Questions
Merit Pay
Do you favor or oppose basing a teacher's salary, in part, on his or
her students' academic progress on state tests?
President Barack Obama has expressed support for the policy of basing
teachers' salaries, in part, on their students' academic progress on
tests. What do you think of this policy?
A recent study presents evidence that students learn more when their
teachers are paid, in part, according to their academic progress on
tests. What do you think of this policy?
Charter Schools
Many states permit the formation of charter schools, which are publicly
funded but are not managed by the local school board. These schools are
expected to meet promised objectives, but are exempt from many state
regulations. Do you support or oppose the formation of charter schools?
President Barack Obama has expressed support for charter schools. What
do you think? Do you support or oppose the formation of charter
schools?
A recent study presents evidence that students learn more in
charter schools than in public schools. What do you think? Do you
support or oppose the formation of charter schools?
School Vouchers
A proposal has been made that would use government funds to help pay
the tuition of low-income students whose families would like them to
attend private schools. Would you favor or oppose this proposal?
President Barack Obama has expressed opposition to such a proposal.
Would you favor or oppose this proposal?
A recent study presents evidence that students learn no more in private
schools than in public schools. Would you favor or oppose this
proposal?
Note: Table made form pie chart.
By comparison, policy research on the topic had a modest impact on
public thinking. Among those told that "a recent study presents
evidence that students learn more when their teachers are paid, in part,
according to their students' academic progress on tests,"
support for merit pay climbed by just 6 percentage points above the
support given when that information was withheld. The one subgroup to
register especially large changes was African Americans, among whom
support skyrocketed by 28 percentage points. Democrats were somewhat
more responsive to research evidence than other segments of the public,
with their support for merit pay increasing by 10 percentage points.
School Vouchers: Public opinion on school vouchers varied somewhat,
depending on the way in which the question was worded. To one group of
respondents we presented the issue as follows: "A proposal has been
made that would give low-income families with children in public schools
a wider choice, by allowing them to enroll their children in private
schools instead, with government helping to pay the tuition. Would you
favor or oppose this proposal?" In this instance, 40 percent of the
respondents gave a favorable reply and 34 percent a negative one, with
27 percent taking a middling position. But when we posed the question
slightly differently--asking about a "proposal that would use
government funds to help pay the tuition of low-income students whose
families would like them to attend private schools"--just 35
percent supported the idea. In this instance, a small alteration in
wording shifted public opinion by 5 percentage points.
We also find that public support for vouchers declined by 5
percentage points between 2008 and 2009, perhaps as a result of the
opposition to vouchers expressed by most Democratic presidential
candidates during that party's extended primary-election campaign,
which conceivably could have altered the balance of public discourse.
That interpretation is reinforced by the impact that President
Obama's position can have on public opinion. Overall, the
percentage favoring vouchers was 11 points lower among those informed of
the president's opposition than among those not so informed (35
percent to 24 percent, see Figure 4). We also observed large partisan
differences in the president's influence on this issue. Whereas
just 30 percent of Democrats expressed opposition to vouchers when asked
outright, 52 percent did so after hearing of Obama's opposition. By
comparison, opposition among Republicans increased only slightly, from
50 to 54 percent. African Americans expressed higher levels of support
for vouchers than did the population as a whole (57 percent), but
support also was 12 percentage points lower among those African
Americans told of presidential opposition.
A study that "presents evidence that students learn no more in
private school than in public schools" depressed support for
vouchers by 10 percentage points overall, an impact almost as large as
presidential position taking. The same research evidence reduced support
among Democrats by 15 percentage points, as compared to 6 percentage
points for Republicans.
Charter Schools: Most Americans have yet to make up their minds
about charter schools. Though 39 percent expressed support and only 17
percent signaled opposition in 2009, 44 percent remained undecided.
These responses look much as they did in both 2007 and 2008, an
indication that public discourse on charters has not changed
significantly in recent years.
Despite that stability of public opinion about charters, aggregate
support increased by 11 percentage points when respondents were told
that Obama backed them (see Figure 4). We again found evidence that
Obama's impact has a partisan tinge. Among his fellow Democrats,
Obama's support is an unmitigated asset for charter school
advocates, lifting support from 35 to 47 percent. But among Republicans,
the percentage favoring charters increased by only 5 points (from 47 to
52 percent) upon learning of Obama's endorsement. That endorsement
actually decreased the proportion of Republicans who
"completely" supported charter schools, from 22 to 15 percent.
When it comes to charter schools, research findings appear every
bit as influential as a popular president. Told that recent research
showed "students learn more in charter schools than in public
schools," support for charter schools rose by 14 percentage points.
Among African Americans, the percentage who "completely"
supported charter schools climbed by fully 23 percentage points, from 14
to 37 percent. Hispanics, meanwhile, were least persuaded by the
evidence; only 5 percent altered their opinions. As they did on the
previous items, Democrats appear to be more impressed by research than
Republicans. Among those given evidence that charter schools enhance
student learning, Democratic support for charter schools shot upward by
18 percentage points to 53 percent (compared to 35 percent among those
not so informed), while the percentage of Republicans favoring such
schools shifted by just 12 percentage points.
When all three issues--merit pay, vouchers, and charters--are
considered together, a case can be made that new policy research, if
communicated widely, can have an impact rivaling that of an influential
president at the peak of his popularity. Admittedly, evidence from the
research community does not have the same consistent impact on opinion
as Obama's position taking, which at the time of our survey could
move overall public opinion by anywhere from 11 percentage points (in
the case of charters) to 13 percentage points (in the case of merit
pay). But the impact of a study is of comparable magnitude, ranging from
6 percentage points (in the case of merit pay) to 10 percentage points
(in the case of vouchers) to 14 percentage points (in the case of
charters). Research appears particularly influential among Democrats and
when the general public's own views have yet to take shape. That
half the public has yet to make up its mind about charter schools may
provide researchers with an opportunity to shape the public conversation
going forward.
Stubborn Facts
How about raw facts concerning the state of American education?
What does the public actually know about the performance of the
nation's public schools and the resources devoted to them? And is
the public willing to update its views when told the truth?
We conducted additional experiments to investigate these issues. In
2007, we asked respondents to estimate average per-pupil expenditures
within their local school district and the average teacher salaries in
their states. When we discovered that those surveyed, on average,
underestimated per-pupil expenditures by more than half and teacher
salaries by roughly 30 percent, we wondered whether people had equally
poor information about the performance of American high schools (see
"Educating the Public," features, Summer 2009). So in 2009 we
asked a random third of our sample to estimate high school graduation
rates and another third to estimate the international standing of U.S.
15-year-olds in math. The remaining two-thirds of the sample was told
the truth about one or the other of these matters, allowing us to see
whether people's assessments of their schools differed when given
accurate information.
To our surprise, the public had a far more accurate understanding
of student performance than they had of teacher salaries and per-pupil
spending. When it comes to high school graduation rates nationwide, the
best available estimates from the U.S. Department of Education suggest
that roughly 75 percent of those who enter 9th grade graduate within
four years, a far cry from the goal of universal high school completion
to which the president of the United States and all 50 governors in 1989
committed themselves to reaching by the year 2000. When asked to give
their own estimate, without any hint or help as to what the right answer
might be, those surveyed came up with an even more pessimistic estimate
of 66 percent, 9 percentage points below actual levels. Excluding those
respondents who gave answers of less than 25 percent (on the grounds
that they may have misunderstood the question or not taken it seriously)
increases the average estimate only slightly to 69 percent. Either
estimate is nonetheless a good deal closer to, and a good deal less
optimistic about, the truth than the wildly inaccurate estimates that
the public offered about teacher salaries and school expenditures.
The public was only slightly less accurate when it came to
estimating how well 15-year-olds in the United States do in math, as
compared to students in 29 of the leading industrialized countries. Here
the correct answer, according to the latest tests administered by the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's Program on
International Student Assessment (PISA), is 24th out of 29th. Both the
average and median guess was 18th, a bit more optimistic than actual
PISA results but not too far off the mark. Clearly, Americans have not
been deceived into believing that our students are outperforming their
counterparts abroad.
So what happens when the public is told the truth? Not much, it
turns out, if people already have a pretty solid grasp of the relevant
facts. When informed that 75 percent of students graduated from high
school, the public took that as neutral to mildly good news, as the
percentage giving schools an "A" or "B" increased by
a trivial 2 points and the percentage getting a "D" or
"F" dropped by 1 point (both statistically insignificant
changes). Learning the truth about the international standing of
American students had a bigger impact, reducing the share of respondents
giving a grade of "A" or "B" from 18 to 13 percent
and increasing the share of respondents giving a "D" or
"F" by 10 percentage points (see Figure 5a).
Learning the Facts (Figure 5a)
The public has fairly accurate information on graduation rates and the
U.S. ranking in math; so telling them the facts hardly changes opinion.
Grades given schools when told ...
No U.S. Ranking High School Graduation Rates
Information on
International
Tests
A or B 18% 13% 20%
C 57% 52% 56%
D or F 25% 35% 24%
Questions
Percentage Giving Schools Grades A, B, C, D, F
Students are often given the grades A, B, C, D, and Fail is denote
the quality of their work. Suppose the public schools themselves
were graded in the same way. What grade would you give the public
schools in the nation as a whole?
A 2006 government survey ranked the math skills of 15-year-olds in 29
industrialized countries. In this survey, the United States ranked
24th. Students are often given A, B, C, D and Fail to denote the
quality of their work. Suppose the public schools themselves were
graded in the same way. What grade would you give the public schools in
the nation as a whole?
According to the most recent available data, roughly 75 percent of 9th
graders in U.S. public schools graduate from high school within four
years. Students are often given the grades A, B, C, D, and Fail to
denote the quality of their work. Suppose the public schools themselves
were graded in the same way. What grade would you give the public
schools in the nation as a whole?
Note: Table made form pie chart.
In the case of spending, however, learning the truth shifted
opinion by a larger margin (see Figure 5b). For the nation as a whole,
overall support for higher spending levels dropped by 8 percentage
points (from 46 to 38 percent) when respondents were informed of actual
per-pupil expenditures in their own district. The impacts of this
information varied widely across subgroups. Told the truth about
per-pupil expenditures, the share of African Americans willing to
support additional spending plummeted from 82 to 48 percent. Perhaps not
surprisingly, teachers held firm in their commitment to higher spending.
(Figure 5b)
But the public doesn't know spending levels or teacher salaries; so
learning the facts alters opinion.
Percent supporting Percent favoring higher
Increased spending when ... teacher salaries when ...
Not told 46 56
how much
is
currently
spent per
pupil
Told how 38 40
much is
currently
spent per
pupil
Percent Supporting Increased Spending
Do you think that government funding for public schools in your
district should increase, decrease, or stay about the same?
According to the most recent information available, in your district
[Respondent given amount] is being spent each year per child attending
public schools. Do you think that government funding for public schools
in your district should increase, decrease, or stay about the same?
Do you think that teacher salaries in your state should increase,
decrease, or stay about the same?
In your state, teachers are paid an average annual salary of
[Respondent given amount]. Do you think that these teacher salaries
should increase, decrease, or stay about the same?
SOURCES: Education Next-PEPG surveys 2007, 2008, 2009
Note: Table made form bar graph.
Even larger impacts are observed on support for increased teacher
salaries. When informed about actual average teacher salaries in their
state, respondents' support for higher salaries dropped by 16
percentage points (from 56 to 40 percent). In this instance, roughly
comparable impacts are observed for all three ethnic groups. But as one
might again expect, teachers' support for high salaries was
relatively undiminished, dropping just 6 percentage points (from 77 to
71 percent).
Why does the public have a generally accurate understanding of
school performance but a gross misunderstanding of the amount that is
spent on education? The answer may have to do with the availability of
information on these issues. It is true that the U.S. Department of
Education regularly releases information on all four topics in the same
document, the Digest of Education Statistics. But student dropout rates
and student performance on international tests receive much more
extensive attention in the news media than information about per-pupil
spending in individual school districts or teacher salaries in specific
states. The cost of education is divided among federal, state, and local
governments, and the total sums are difficult to assemble until that is
done by the federal government several years after the fact.
It is unlikely that organizations outside of the media are likely
to pick up the slack. With a large share of the populations convinced
that schools and teachers should be given more money, or at least be
held harmless, few if any interest groups or politicians have an
incentive to dramatize the fact that spending levels and teacher
salaries are much higher than most people believe. So school reformers
instead focus on low test scores and high dropout rates as justification
for merit pay, school accountability initiatives, and other school
choice reforms. The public may only learn about the true cost of
education when a popular political figure stakes a political career on
telling them. That, we suspect, is as likely as the Cubs winning the
Super Bowl.
Surveys and Realities
Our experiments only hint at what could happen in the real world of
school politics. It is one thing to inform a captive audience of survey
respondents about the president's position, the results from
research, or a key fact about American education. Reaching the entire
American public is a completely different matter. To change opinions,
one must get the public's attention. And that is no easy task, when
jobs, family life, entertainment, and sports command a higher priority
in most households. Only 38 percent of the respondents to our survey
report paying "a great deal" or "quite a bit" of
attention to education issues. And even the power of presidents is
limited by the large number of issues to which they must attend.
President Obama's genuine thoughts on such matters as merit pay,
charters, and vouchers, however deeply held, necessarily command far
less of his time and energy than the multitude of foreign policy,
economic, and other domestic problems to which he must devote his
attention.
Still, our findings suggest that a well-publicized stance taken by
a popular president on an education issue might shift the opinions of
large segments of the American public. Similarly, scholarship appears to
be a potent weapon for groups with policy agendas they wish to pursue,
as the committed can broadcast research findings with great repetition.
Indeed, any group that seeks to change public opinion without gathering
research to back its positions is leaving a flank unprotected. Finally,
advocates are well advised to search for facts the public does not
understand, and then to communicate those facts as widely as they can.
Just as nothing affects opinion about an ongoing war as quickly as
communiques from the front, so too a better understanding of the facts
about the public schools could in the long run shape American education.
William G. Howell is professor of American Politics at the
University of Chicago. Paul E. Peterson is professor of government at
Harvard University, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, and
editor-in-chief of Education Next. Martin R. West is assistant professor
of education at the Harvard Graduate School of Education and executive
editor of Education Next.
Survey Methods
This survey, sponsored by Education Next and the Program on
Education Policy and Governance (PEPG) at Harvard University, was
conducted by the polling firm Knowledge Networks (KN) between February
25 and March 13 of 2009. KN maintains a nationally representative panel
of adults, obtained via list-assisted random digit-dialing sampling
techniques, who agree to participate in a limited number of online
surveys. Because KN offers members of its panel free Internet access and
a WebTV device that connects to a telephone and television, the sample
is not limited to current computer owners or users with Internet access.
When recruiting for the panel, KN sends out an advance mailing and
follows up with at least 15 dial attempts. The panel, then, is updated
quarterly. Detailed information about the maintenance of the KN panel,
the protocols used to administer surveys, and the comparability of
online and telephone surveys is available online
(www.knowledgenetworks.com/quality/).
The main findings from the Education Next-PEPG survey reported in
this essay are based on a nationally representative stratified sample of
U.S. adults (age 18 years and older) and oversamples of Hispanics and
non-Hispanic blacks, public school teachers, and residents of Florida
(the last group for supplemental analyses not reported here). The
combined sample of 3,251 respondents consists of 2,153 non-Hispanic
whites, 434 non-Hispanic blacks, 481 Hispanics, and 183 members of other
ethnic groups; 709 public school teachers and 948 residents of Florida;
and 1,694 self-identified Democrats and 1,265 self-identified
Republicans. We use post-stratification population weights to adjust for
survey nonresponse as well as for the oversampling of teachers and
Floridians. These weights ensure that the observed demographic
characteristics of the analytic sample match the known characteristics
of the national adult population.
On many items we conducted experiments to examine the effect of
variations in the way questions are posed. The figures and tables
present separately the results for the different experimental
conditions. In these instances, respondents were randomly assigned to
exactly one of at least two possible conditions. Reported effects in the
figures and tables reflect differences observed across the baseline and
experimental conditions.
In general, survey results based on larger numbers of observations
are more precise, that is, less prone to sampling variance than those
made across groups with fewer numbers of observations. As a consequence,
answers attributed to the national population are more precisely
estimated than those attributed to subgroups. With 3,251 total
respondents, the margin of error for responses given by the full sample
in the Education Next-PEPG survey is 1.7 percentage points (for items on
which opinion is evenly split). The results presented for subgroups
within the sample have larger margins of error, depending on their
actual size. However, any differences in opinions or changes in opinions
over time reported in the text are statistically significant unless
otherwise noted.
Of the 3,251 respondents surveyed in 2009, approximately 300 had
also been interviewed in 2008. For this group, it was possible to
identify the consistency of responses to identical questions asked in
both years.
Percentage totals do not always add to 100 as a result of rounding
to the nearest percentage point.
