Oscillating climate and socio-political process: the case of the Marquesan Chiefdom, Polynesia.
Allen, Melinda S.
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Introduction
The appearance of novel human behaviours and accelerated social
processes is often associated with environmental change. Marked climate
variability in particular, has been tied to subsistence change,
technological innovations, intensified cultural interaction and
sometimes social collapse (e.g. Sherratt 1997; deMenocal 2001).
Historically, exploration of the relationships between climate change
and social process has been most active in temperate regions, where
high-resolution climate proxy records have a lengthy history. In the
tropics, however, many traditional proxies are lacking (e.g. ice-cores)
or are weak (e.g. tree-rings). In the last two decades this situation
has changed, as natural scientists seek to understand the
Pacific-centred El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Interdecadal
Pacific Oscillation (IPO) (Power et al. 1999), and the mechanisms of
modern global warming. Oxygen isotope records from tropical fossil
corals are an important new proxy and, alongside sophisticated computer
modelling, are offering new insights into both regional patterns and
inter-regional teleconnections. There are now unprecedented
opportunities for assessing the impact of climate variability on
prehistoric Pacific peoples, biota, and landscapes. In this paper, the
Marquesas Islands are used to examine the influence of multiple sca]es
of climate variability on social structure, the latter potentially a
crucial adaptive mechanism for complex sedentary agrarian societies. I
argue that in localities where climate is unpredictable, perturbations
common, and the risks of resource instability high, as in the Marquesas,
socio-political systems that incorporate flexibility are advantageous.
Climate variability in the Marquesas Islands
Human arrival in the Marquesas Islands (Figure 1), from islands to
the west, dates to between AD 700 and 1000 (Anderson & Sinoto 2002;
Allen 2004). The narrow coastal plains and restricted valley bottoms
offered limited areas for settlement, while local marine environments
differed, cora] reefs being uncommon, lagoons lacking, and near-shore
waters frequently deep. Moreover, the often rugged topography (Figure 2)
and steep coastlines constrained inter-valley travel and communication.
These features were, in and of themselves demanding, but the real
challenges for prehistoric Marquesans were climatic. Lying between
7[degrees]50' and 11[degrees]35' S latitude, local
temperatures are mild and stable (25-27[degrees]C), but interannual
rainfall can be marked. Spatial variability is notable, with annual
rainfall averages varying from 700mm in leeward areas to nearly 1500mm
on windward coasts (Cauchard & Inchauspe 1978; Addison 2006) (Figure
3). It is droughts, however, that the islands are best known for and
which captured the attention of early visitors, effectively from 1774
forward (Table 1). Missionary William Crook (2007 [1797-99]),
beach-comber Edward Robarts (1974 [1797-1824]), and others (Wilson 1799:
131) commented on their effects, including the devastating famines which
often followed. An early nineteenth-century drought saw 200-300 people
perish in leeward Taioha'e Valley (Robarts 1974), while two-thirds
of the island's population reportedly succumbed (Garcia in Suggs
1961: 191); on arid Ua Pou Island, entire valleys were depopulated
(Robarts 1974: 274). Recent meteorological records re-enforce the view
that the drier leeward communities surfer more, experiencing less
average precipitation and more inter-annual variability (Figure 3;
Rolett 1998: 25; Addison 2008).
The recurrent nature of Marquesan droughts and famines is captured
in local traditions (Table 2). These oral histories inscribed the
impacts and periodicity of drought on the collective cultural
consciousness through highly descriptive names, such as the seven-year
Ivi omo famine, literally 'to suck bones'. Chaulet (in Thomas
1990) recorded traditions relating to six major famines--disasters which
were also alluded to in chants (Elbert 1941). Marquesans developed a
range of coping strategies, including emigration, storage facilities,
famine foods and rituals involving human sacrifice (Handy 1923; Thomas
1990; Addison 2006). Of particular note is Marquesan elaboration of the
pan-Polynesian practice of breadfruit fermentation and storage (Yen
1975), where processed fruits were stored in household and communal
pits, sometimes for decades (Robarts 1974). Even cultural elaborations
such as monumental architecture (Figure 4), tattooing, carving
traditions and competitive feasting, might be considered indirect (and
unconscious) 'storage', acting as energy reservoirs which
could be redirected to population maintenance during crises (following
Dunnell 1989; Madsen et al. 1999).
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Although droughts were potentially devastating, El Nino events were
also disruptive. Modern records point to sometimes extraordinary
downpours (Figure 3; Naval Intelligence Division 1943: 265; Ferdon 1993:
2, 4). During the 1982-83 E1 Nino, for example, one leeward station
received over seven times the monthly average, again highlighting the
vulnerability of leeward communities (Ferdon 1993: 4). Flooding and
discharge of sediments into near-shore areas follow such events and
rivers often remain high for extended periods (Naval Intelligence
Division 1943).
Alternating cool-dry (negative) and warm-wet (positive) conditions,
the 10-30 year IPO cycles (Linsley et al. 2008), also are apparent in
Marquesan rainfall records (Figure 3), phases which tend to amplify
their ENSO equivalents. Negative IPOs in particular correspond
moderately well to ethnohistoric accounts of drought (Table 1). Local
residents also perceive wet-dry cycles (Naval Intelligence Division
1943: 265) but these appear more strongly tied to ENSO activity than the
IPO (Table 3). Scientific understanding of the IPO phenomenon (Linsley
et al. 2008) not only provides a mechanism for the cluster of early
nineteenth-century droughts (Table 1), but also demonstrates that such
dry phases have temporal depth.
[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]
Importantly for human populations, the IPO has a significant impact
on marine fisheries, seabirds and coastal vegetation. Along the North
American seaboard, warm IPO phases are correlated with reduced marine
productivity (e.g. Mantua & Hare 2002). In the central and southern
Pacific, however, IPO effects are poorly documented but presumably
present (e.g. Lehodey et al. 2006). Negative IPO phases, especially in
combination with La Nina events, would have adversely affected Marquesan
breadfruit harvests, while positive IPO phases, coupled with El Ninos,
probably saw increased flooding, possibly coral reef bleaching and
perhaps changes in marine fisheries (e.g. Augustin et al. 1999).
New evidence for centennial climate variability is also emerging.
Recent work on equatorial Palmyra (Line Islands) is especially useful as
it falls within the same climatic sub-zone as the Marquesas (Figure 5,
Salinger et al. 2001). Cobb and associates (2003) provide
monthly-resolved records of [[delta].sup.18]O for rive time intervals
over an 1100 year period (Figure 6). An unexpected finding is that the
AD 900-1200 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' (MCA) (dates following
Jones et al. 2001), warm and dry in many regions, was coal and dry on
Palmyra, with temperatures up to 2[degrees]C lower than the regional
modern average. During the AD 1550-1900 'Little Ice Age' (LIA)
(Jones et al. 2001), conditions were warm and wet on Palmyra and
temperatures were above the regional modern average, possibly peaking in
the eighteenth century (Graham et al. 2007) (Figure 6). Further,
considerable El Nino activity is indicated in the seventeenth century,
with some events rivalling the 1997-8 'Giant El Nino' (see
also Fowler 2008).
[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]
Several points emerge from this brief discussion. First, Marquesan
climate varied in significant ways, with inter-annual, multi-decadal and
centennial-scale patterning in precipitation and temperature.
Recognition of these different scales of variability is a critical first
step towards understanding how climate affected human populations and
stimulated adaptive responses, both here and elsewhere. The rhythm of
climatic oscillations was encoded in Marquesan oral traditions and
evident to early twentieth-century populations; the origin of drought
management strategies undoubtedly lies in this awareness. Nevertheless,
prediction of the timing and magnitude of multi-decadel and longer
climate cycles by prehistoric peoples is unlikely, only recently being
detected by modern instrumentation. Second, the most influential
accounts of Marquesan life, particularly the early and extended
observations of Crook (2007) and Robarts (1974), when placed within a
larger environmental context, appear overly drought-centric. Spatial and
temporal variability in rainfall, rather than droughts alone, was more
likely to have been the crucial variable shaping indigenous Marquesan
society, as further explored below. Finally, regional variability in
background climate (e.g. LIA and MCA) is increasingly indicated (e.g.
Jones et al. 1998; Cobb et al. 2003; Graham et al. 2007), a factor not
fully appreciated in the past (see Jones et al. 1998; Allen 2006). These
studies underscore the need to develop regional and even local records
if we are to fully evaluate linkages between climate phenomena and human
societies.
Marquesan society at Western contact
Kirch & Green's (2001) reconstruction of ancient
Polynesian society provides a starting point for understanding how
Marquesans diverged from the ancestral pattern. They suggest that early
Polynesian societies were internally ranked on hereditary criteria, with
a basic distinction between elites and commoners. Leadership rights of
social land-controlling groups were inherited, usually on the principle
of primogeniture, and typically through the male line. A key feature was
the dual function of chiefs as both secular and sacred leaders.
Specialised priests were typically chiefly delegates or ritual servants,
rather than independent agents. Senior chiefly lineages controlled major
resources, principally land and its economic products, on behalf of the
kin group; this was a logical extension of the chief's ritual role
in survival and regeneration of the group (Thomas 1990). While
contact-period chiefdoms varied, many of these features were retained or
elaborated (Kirch 2000). Eighteenth-century Marquesan society differed
from this ancestral pattern in several crucial respects (Handy 1923;
Thomas 1990; Kirch 1991).
Traditional Marquesan communities were only weakly integrated
beyond the confines of individual valleys. Typically, tribal groups of
200 to 800 people were concentrated in single valleys. Large-scale
alliances occurred, sometimes extending between islands, but their
strength, composition and duration was fluid (Thomas 1990: 19-26). Only
Ua Pou Island was united under a single paramount, a polity which
collapsed after contact. There was a clear differentiation between
commoners and elites but more unusually, Marquesan chiefs included
women. Other elites also functioned as leaders in varied realms.
Shamanistic priests (tau'a) were sometimes drawn from chiefly
lineages, but not always and included both sexes. Historically they
played an important role in mediating droughts, often using human
sacrifices (Handy 1923: 240, 243-4; Linton 1925: 165). Ties between
chiefs and priests were temporally and spatially variable, with some
priests being extremely powerful, independent and having greater spheres
of influence than chiefs (Handy 1923; Ferdon 1993: 41-4; Crook 2007:
99). Warriors (toa) commonly served under chiefs, but could be
independent operatives (Thomas 1990). Other elites (tuhuka) were
recognised for their abilities in administration, crafts or traditions.
Also of note are the 'akatia, a group with undefined status and
sanctity (Goldman 1970), who had acquired land and/or canoes through
non-chiefly inheritance or as gifts. Elsewhere in East Polynesia the
cognatic ra'atira often derived from junior chiefly lines, but
property not lineage appears to have defined membership in the
'akatia (Thomas 1990:49-51).
The dispersion of sacred powers traditionally associated with
senior chiefly lineages had ramifications for other aspects of Marquesan
social structure (Thomas 1990, 1996). Typically, Polynesian chiefs
occupied an intermediary role between ancestor-gods and the general
populace, with chiefly sanctity and supernatural power deriving from
genealogical connections to the deities (Thomas 1990). Chiefs connected
these deities with processes of growth through their own links with food
production and ritual works; prestations by other group members fuelled
this ritual agency. This suite of relationships explains the source of
chiefly power, their responsibilities vis-a-vis the community and the
bases for reciprocal relations between different social groups. In the
Marquesas, these linkages were significantly weakened; the loss of
control over rites of prosperity, health and fertility by Marquesan
chiefs perhaps undermined their secular powers as well, and may have
eroded communal property traditions.
Commoners also played an essential role in the evolving Marquesan
society. As elsewhere, they supported elites in major social endeavours,
including feasts, construction of public architecture and religious
rites. While commoners were potentially alienated from their tribal
lands over time, they also acquired the freedom to change allegiance.
Chiefly families could be expelled, chiefs and 'akatia were
sometimes assassinated (Thomas 1990:173), and commoners could shift
their geographic residences.
The Marquesan socio-political system had thus diverged from the
ancestral pattern. Traditional chiefly powers were dispersed and
inspirational priests had gained significant independence. A
comparatively low level of hierarchy was sustained and leadership rights
were mutable and contestable. The end result was a broadening of the
pool of potential secular leaders. This situation was further encouraged
by an untethered commoner population with the ability to change
political alliances and geographic residence, although not without costs
(see Thomas 1990). Lastly, a larger portion of the population had gained
private property rights, bringing them into more direct control of food
resources.
Environmental variability and socio-political change
In explaining the atypical Marquesan socio-political system,
Sahlins (1958) emphasised the constraints of environmental productivity,
Goldman (1970) the importance of status rivalry and Suggs (1961)
population growth. Thomas (1990) suggested periodic famine led to
collapse of a once more stratified and centralised society, while Kirch
(1991) highlighted population growth, environmental constraints, and
intra-elite competition. In these explanations environmental limitations
is a common theme, but diachronic evidence has been lacking. The
palaeoclimate records reviewed above, combined with more recent
archaeological studies, offer new insights into the nature and
chronology of key changes.
By the thirteenth century AD, populations were established across
the archipelago (Rolett 1998; Anderson & Sinoto 2002; Allen 2004).
During this early period, several changes with long-term consequences
were set in motion. Native forest was reduced, with sedimentary records
indicating burning and erosion well underway by the fourteenth century.
Many native birds, intensively exploited on arrival, became extinct or
were extirpated shortly after colonisation (Steadman 2006).
Other changes date from the mid-fifteenth century. Offshore
fishing, of modest importance at first settlement, was in decline by the
mid-1400s (Sinoto 1970; Dye 1990; Rolett 1998). Similarly, long-distance
movement of rare stone resources comes to a close (Rolett 1998).
Although both trends originate in earlier times, the onset of stormy
conditions may have contributed to their termini (Bridgman 1983), as
both require open sea travel and have regional expressions (e.g. Weisler
1998; Allen 2002). By the close of the fifteenth century, opportunities
for internal mobility may have been restricted, some resources were no
longer widely available (birds) or accessible (offshore fish), one
potential buffering mechanism had diminished (exchange) and emigration
may have become more costly.
Against this backdrop, the impact of the increasingly warmer,
wetter LIA conditions in the mid-sixteenth century was potentially
traumatic. Local landforms and biota already under pressure from
agriculturalists would have been further destabilised. The large
seventeenth-century El Ninos registered in the Palmyra cotals may
account for the increased sedimentation and shoreline aggradation
observed archaeologically (Allen 2009; Aswani & Allen 2009). The
contemporaneous appearance of raised house foundations may also have
been stimulated by wetter conditions (Allen 2009). At the same time,
historic records (Robarts 1974; Crook 2007) and regional IPO data
(Linsley et al. 2008) point to periodic droughts. The high incidence of
linear enamel hypoplasia in late prehistoric humans and domesticate
animals (Cowie 2009) may stem from these deteriorating conditions.
These sixteenth- and seventeenth-century developments are likely to
have contributed to socio-political instability. Initially, the
oscillations between wet and dry conditions, and the difficulty of
predicting the onset, duration, and magnitude of such phases, may have
been especially important, undermining confidence in the religious
authority and ritual efficacy of traditional chiefs (see also Thomas
1990, 1996: 64). Notably, this power vacuum was filled not by warriors,
but by 'inspired' priests (cum indigenous meteorologists?),
highlighting the importance of fertility maintenance as opposed to
territoriality, the latter potentially providing only modest benefits in
this rugged landscape (cf. Ladefoged et al. 2008). In the south, priests
gained a strong foothold, while in the north traditional chiefs
prevailed, but often in tight partnerships with inspirational priests,
who were sometimes related by marriage (Thomas 1990).
Archaeologically, we can anticipate that the dispersion of chiefly
powers will be reflected in community and religious architecture. At
contact, community assembly structures (tohua) were the property of
hereditary chiefs and often built in their honour (Handy 1923; Linton
1925). Variable in size and complexity, they routinely featured a
rectangular courtyard, often with peripheral terraces for spectators and
secondary structures (Linton 1925). In both their morphology and
function tohua have clear historical ties to West Polynesian malae (see
Green 2000; Kirch & Green 2001) and are probably a long-standing,
albeit elaborated architectural form (examples in Suggs 1961; Rolett
1998). Religious rites, the purview of inspirational priests, sometimes
took place on tohua in specially designated areas (Linton 1925: 28-9,
Suggs 1961). However, in the south (and sometimes the north) separate
public religious structures (me'ae) developed. While the origin of
public me'ae remains open, and possibly connected to regional
developments (see Green 2000), their spread and elaboration in the
Marquesas is likely to be connected with the rise of independent priests
and the decline of chiefly sacred powers.
The severing of sacred and secular activities is further
represented in the priestly elaboration of mortuary practices (details
in Handy 1923), and the development of specialised mortuary me'ae
in areas outside of community centres (Linton 1925). Although mortuary
me'ae reputedly belonged to chiefs (Linton 1925: 33), priests
officiated over me'ae religious rites, including human sacrifices.
Through these activities, they enhanced their status as specialists,
ideationally disassociated themselves from the traditional chiefly power
centre of the community and physically established themselves in
elevated positions of dominance.
As the integrated set of principles binding chiefs, commoners and
the gods were disentangled, the chief's secular role was
endangered. Moreover, strong, multi-faceted leadership skills were
needed as environmental conditions deteriorated, to manage community
resources, fend off invaders and forge alliances. Historic accounts
suggest elite warriors were a particular threat to chiefly secular
control. Diversification of the pool of potential leaders, well beyond
the traditional candidates (i.e. senior males of senior lineages), could
have benefited both followers and leaders. Suitable leaders could be
identified by achievements, inadequate leaders replaced and blame for
economic failures dispersed (see also Thomas 1990).
Another way that climate affected socio-political change was
through drought-induced mortality. Historic observers highlight the
catastrophic impacts of extended droughts. Even elite households who
presumably had access to significant resources experienced high
mortality rates, as for example one priestess who lost twelve family
members during a nineteenth-century famine (Robarts 1974: 274). Thus,
these conditions at least occasionally provided opportunities for new
leadership. Indeed, famine-induced mortality may have necessitated a
larger pool of potential leaders to maintain socio-political stability.
Drought-related mortality also opened new lands for settlement. Robarts
(1974) observed entire valleys were depopulated, with changes in
resource access as a consequence; breadfruit trees 'groaned'
under the weight of un-harvested fruit. This periodic release of land
and other resources, accompanied by erosion of genealogically-founded
principles of rank, may have redefined 'akatia, from a social class
of junior chiefly lineages to one of landholders generally.
Drought-related mortality also potentially dispersed critical economic
resources (i.e. land) from a select group of elites to a broader sector
of the population.
Discussion
Behavioural adaptations to unpredictable environments and related
resource fluctuations can take a variety of forms, including mobility,
storage, diversification, cultural elaboration and exchange (e.g.
Halstead & O'Shea 1989; Graves & Ladefoged 1995; Hunt &
Lipo 2001; Addison 2006). However, the ability of a population to
utilise this suite of possibilities is partly a function of their
subsistence economy and settlement pattern, with important differences
between mobile foragers and sedentary agriculturalists (Peeples et al.
2006). Nevertheless, Marquesans utilised most of these strategies. They
also developed a set of socio-political principles and practices that,
as a whole, were relatively flexible, therein facilitating rapid
response to novel situations. Key features include: (1) a reduced
hierarchy; (2) functional differentiation of leadership; (3) a
diversified pool of potential leaders; (4) reduced centralisation in
decision-making; (5) mechanisms which allowed for leadership change, and
(6) devolved control of key resources to subordinate social units.
Notably, these features parallel other risk management strategies, with
some affecting the rapidity and effectiveness of crisis response, others
distributing risk management to multiple sectors of society and some
reorganising social relationships, either in anticipation of, or in
response to, environmental perturbations. This suite of features was
particularly advantageous in the context of a temporally variable and
unpredictable climate.
Viewed from this perspective, Marquesan polities are not
'devolved' forms of the traditional Polynesian chiefdom, but
an adaptation to local conditions. As Goldman (1970: 140) suggested,
Marquesan society exhibited 'a flexible structure that ...
concludes with no fixed forms'. Notably, many organisms exhibit
behavioural plasticity when confronted with new or stressful
environments (West-Eberhard 1989; Behetra & Nanjundiah 2004;
Ghalambor et al. 2007). Novel phenotypes generated under such conditions
may persist alongside, or replace earlier forms, the tension lying
between the need to buffer against, versus track and adaptively respond
to, environmental variability. In the Marquesan case, the ethnographic
endpoint was not a homogeneous set of sub-insular chieftains, but
multiple allied variants that were the outcome of flexibility in
organisational principles and related socio-political structures.
Does socio-political flexibility enhance individual fitness and
community resilience? This hypothesis might be evaluated in two ways.
First, the expectation is that polities with flexible socio-political
structures differentially persisted and spread at the expense of more
rigid socio-political forms. The single contact-period example of a
traditional hereditary chiefdom on Ua Pou, and its historic collapse,
may be indicative in this regard. There are also expectations for the
spatial distribution of flexible socio-political structures, with these
having greater value in localities that experience more climatic
variability, as for example, leeward valleys. As regional Marquesan
prehistories become available, evaluation of the ideas presented here
may be possible.
Conclusions
The Marquesas Islands have been used to demonstrate how local and
regional records of variable resolution and duration can be integrated
to provide a relatively fine-grained account of past climate conditions.
The evidence assembled here includes coral oxygen isotope analyses,
recent meteorological records, oral traditions and historic accounts.
The latter, commonly relied on, are shown to be overly drought-centric,
while the combined records reflect pronounced shifts between wet versus
dry conditions, oscillations that operated on both decadal (ENSO) and
multi-decadal (IPO) time scales. Diminishing natural resources and
changing background climate (from cool-dry MCA to warm-wet LIA
conditions) in the sixteenth century may also have been important,
potentially a turning point in Marquesan social and environmental
relations, while the seventeenth century appears to have been
particularly unstable.
In examining the impacts of these conditions on Marquesan peoples,
four aspects of sociopolitical change have been modelled. IPO cycles are
highlighted as potentially disruptive to traditional structures of power
and authority, given their periodicity relative to human lifetimes, and
unpredictable timing and magnitude. Periods of marked ENSO activity may
also have played a key role in socio-political change, particularly
following the MCA-LIA transition. More specifically, drought-induced
famines created opportunities for leadership change and land
acquisition. Overall, the regionally variable and structurally mutable
contact-period Marquesan polities are argued to be, at least in part,
the long-term outcome of a temporally variable and unpredictable
climate.
Notably, environmental uncertainty can take other forms, as for
example, periodic tropical storms, susceptibility to tectonic events or
recurrent flooding. In these contexts as well, flexible socio-political
structures that aid management, redistribution and/or alleviation of
associated risks may be beneficial and differentially persist. The ideas
outlined here warrant consideration in other Polynesian 'open
societies' (Goldman 1970; Kirch 2007), such as Rapa Nui and
Mangaia, where social structure was fluid and environmental constraints
marked. They may also have relevance elsewhere, in both prehistoric and
contemporary contexts (e.g. Peeples et al. 2006; Norris et al. 2008),
where environmental risks are frequent but unpredictable.
Acknowledgements
To the memory of Maea, my window onto Marquesan life. My thanks
also to helpful colleagues, students and referees. Research funding was
provided by National Geographic Society, Green Foundation for Polynesian
Research and University of Auckland.
Received: 20 November 23008; Accepted: 30 January 2009; Revised: 20
April 2009
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Table 1. Ethnohistoric observations on Marquesan droughts and
famines compared with Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)
phases. [These IPO phases derive from Fijian and Tongan coral
oxygen isotope ([[delta].sup.18]O) records (Linsley et al.
2008: Table 4).
Timing of
observation Duration Impact Observed Location
1796-8 3 yrs drought & famine Tahuata
1801-3 3 yrs drought & famine Ua Pou & Nuku Hiva
1806-1812 6 yrs drought & famine Nuku Hiva
1820 1 yr drought & famine localised to Nuku
Hiva
1840-1 2 yr drought suggested Nuku Hiva
1856-62 7 yr drought & famine whole group
1867-77 11 yr drought & famine not known
no data
no data
early 1900s 7 yrs drought & famine Ua Huka & Ua Pou
1918-21 4 yrs negative Hiva Oa
Timing of
observation Marquesan Ethnohistoric Source(s)
1796-8 Crook 2007; see also Dening 1980: 239
1801-3 Robarts 1797-1824: 118, 273-4;
Dening 1980: 239; Thomas 1990: 169
1806-1812 Dening 1980: 239; Kellum 1968: 38
1820 Des Verges 1877 cited in
Kellum 1968: 38-9
1840-1 Thomson 1978
1856-62 Dening 1980:259; Lawson 1862 cited in
Thomas 1990: 229; Des Verges 1877
cited in Kellum 1968: 38-9;
Kauwealoha 1862 cited in
Kellum 1968:39
1867-77 Kauwealoha 1877 cited in
Thomas 1990: 229
early 1900s Christianson 1910: 173 cited in
Kellum 1968: 39; Handy 1923:
8 (on duration);
N.I.D. 1943: 265 identifies
1908-1910 as dry period
1918-21 Handy 1923: 8; N.I.D. 1943: 265
identifies 1918-1928 as dry period
N.I.D. 1943: 265 indicates dry
period commenced in 1931
Timing of
observation IPO Phase
1796-8 POSITIVE: early 1780s to
early 1800s
1801-3 NEGATIVE: early ~1800s to
early 1830s
1806-1812
1820
1840-1 POSITIVE: early 1830s to
mid-1840s
1856-62 NEGATIVE: mid-1840s to
mid-1870s
1867-77
POSITIVE: mid-1870s to ~1890
NEGATIVE: late 1890s to
early 1890s
early 1900s POSITIVE: late 1890s to ~1910
1918-21 NEGATIVE: ~1910 to
early 1920s
POSITIVE: early 1920s to
mid-1940s
Table 2. Named Marquesan famines of uncertain date, recorded by
missionary Pierre Chaulet in the late nineteenth or early twentieth
century (from Thomas 1990: 170, 188).
Marquesan name English translation Duration
Ivi omo to suck bones 7 yrs
Kohope tita withered fruit? 3 yrs
Tehi kia n/a 3 yrs
Mi'a tahia n/a 6 yrs
Koekoe pi'au a stomach which can hold nothing; 1 yr
literally 'rotten stomach'
Ki'i pokoko chapped, dry skin 6 yrs
Table 3. Weather conditions reported by local residents compared with
regional scientific observations.
Informant Informant Associated ENSO
periods (1) perceptions (1) event history (2)
1903-1906 wet El Nino: 1902 VS
El Nino: 1903 W
La Nina: 1904 W
El Nino: 1904 W (also)
El Nino: 1905 E
El Nino: 1906 W
1908-1910 dry La Nina: 1909 VS
La Nina: 1910 VS
1911-17 wet El Nino: 1911 M
El Nino: 1912 VS
El Nino: 1913 VS
El Nino: 1914 VS
El Nino: 1915 VS
La Nina: 1916 S
La Nina: 1917 VS
1918-28 dry La Nina: 1918 S
El Nino: 1918 VS (also)
El Nino: 1919 S
El Nino: 1920 W
La Nina: 1921 W
La Nina: 1922 S
La Nina: 1923 W
El Nino: 1924 W
El Nino: 1925 S
El Nino: 1926 E
1929-31 wet El Nino: 1930 M
El Nino: 1931 S
1932- dry La Nina: 1932 W
Informant Regional IPO Fiji-Tonga
periods (1) phase (3) IPO phase (4)
1903-1906 POSITIVE: POSITIVE: late 1890s
1896-1907 to ~1910
1908-1910 NEGATIVE:
1908-1918
1911-17 NEGATIVE: ~1910
to early 1920s
1918-28
POSITIVE: 1918-40
POSITIVE:
early 1920s to
mid-1940s
1929-31
1932-
(1) Naval Intelligence Division 1943: 265; no details given of
informants or their locations.
(2) Data and magnitude classification from Gerghis & Fowler
(2009, Table 9): Extreme (E), Very Strong (VS), Strong (S),
Moderate (M) and Weak (W).
(3) Derived from instrument-measured seasonal SSTs
(Powers et al. 1999).
(4) Derived from Fijian and Tongan coral oxygen isotope
([[delta].sup.18]O) records (Linsley et al. 2008: Table 4).
