Rethinking the quest for provenance.
Budd, P. ; Haggerty, R. ; Pollard, A.M. 等
One of the larger - and more expensive - present programmes of study
in archaeological science explores the provenance of prehistoric bronzes
from the Mediterranean. What are the bases of research? What will the
findings tell us about the real place of metal as it moved in the
ancient world?
The provenance postulate
The availability of spectrographic methods in the 1930s made it
possible to analyse large numbers of ancient metal artefacts with a view
determining their provenance. Some of these studies (e.g. Pittioni 1957)
followed from a 19th-century tradition, pioneered by the Austrian
scholar Wocel (see Caley 1951; 1967), in which it was proposed that the
impurities in ancient copper artefacts would directly reflect those in
the ores from which they were smelted. Some scientifically informed
commentators (Thompson 1958) expressed concern as to whether this naive
insistence was justified, but the work continued in the absence of any
detailed understanding either of the geology of metal ores or of the
chemistry of their smelting. Although most researchers have come to
recognize the complexity and limitations of compositional data (see for
example Pernicka 1995), Pittioni-style provenance studies continued for
decades. Despite Thompson's warning, tens of thousands of
prehistoric metal artefacts were subsequently analysed. The Studien zu
den Anfangen der Metallurgie (SAM) analytical programme (Junghans et al.
1960; 1968; 1974) and the huge analytical programme in the former Soviet
Union (Chernykh 1994) stand as the two largest monuments to this
endeavour. Interpretation of the data in these compilations has
generally used statistical procedures to extract groups of artefacts
having similar composition. On the broadest level, such groupings are
undoubtedly significant. In much of Eurasia, the use of unalloyed copper
pre-dates the use of arsenic-rich material, and this is later succeeded
by tin-bronze. On a more detailed level attempts to link compositionally
similar artefacts to common geographical sources have almost always
proved inconclusive. Artefacts grouped on the basis of composition have
often come from unrelated contexts, sometimes widely scattered across
vast areas, as Butler & Van der Waals (1964) noticed in commenting
on the SAM programme.
When the assumptions which underpin these approaches are examined, it
is easy to see the pitfalls. For trace element provenancing to succeed
it is necessary to assume that the artefacts under consideration were
fabricated using similar manufacturing processes, derived from a
strictly limited number of sources and smelted in such a way as to
produce a metallic product with a limited range of impurities.
Furthermore, one is obliged to make further fundamental assumptions
about alloying and recycling. Whereas some copper deposits may contain
distinctive traces of particular trace or minor elements, very few have
been studied mineralogically to the point where quantitative estimates
of different mineral species' contributions to ore 'as-mined
in prehistory' can be made. Similarly, there is little detailed
understanding of the behaviour of impurities in primitive smelting
processes. Simple thermodynamic models are problematic and many
experimental studies have been little more than imaginative
reconstructions of hypothetical processes, sometimes using inappropriate
materials and poor control and monitoring.
Under these circumstances modern researchers are rightly circumspect in their use of impurity data for provenance studies, although useful
studies have been undertaken for small regions; attempting for example
to outline compositional variation within artefacts already grouped
archaeologically by virtue of typology or context (e.g. Begemann et al.
1995). It is now clear that different deposits may share closely similar
geochemical characteristics so that particular copper deposits simply
will not yield metal of unique minor or trace element composition. On
the other hand, some deposits may be distinctive from some others with
respect to certain elements, and Pernicka (1995) argues cogently that
trace element analysis offers the potential to aide the discrimination
of ore sources in some cases.
These observations about the studies of a generation ago and the
limitations of trace element analysis are paralleled in recent work on
lead isotopes - work regarded as the promising successor to elemental
analysis for provenance study. Some practitioners of lead isotope
analysis were amongst the most vociferous critics of trace element metal
provenancing (e.g. Gale & Stos-Gale 1982); yet, in developing their
methods, these workers themselves retain some of the same assumptions
regarding the composition of ore bodies and concerning the nature of
metal production and use in prehistoric societies. Although not obvious
in the early years of the large-scale lead isotope programmes, when the
numbers of ore bodies and artefacts analysed were relatively small, as
the data have accumulated so too have many familiar problems. These
difficulties could undermine the whole lead isotope provenancing
technique if they lead to a loss of faith of the sort that overtook the
SAM programme (Coles 1982). In our opinion, this need not be the case.
Lead isotope studies can be helpful and relevant in archaeology. We
believe however, that more realistic archaeological interpretations of
the analytical data are required; a more detailed examination of
archaeological lead isotope methodology and the deconstruction of
aspects of the current framework are essential to this.
Deconstructing lead isotope provenancing
A vigorous debate on the interpretation of lead isotope data has
recently taken place in Archaeometry (Sayre et al. 1992a; 1992b; 1993;
Gale & Stos-Gale 1992; 1993; Leese 1992; Pernicka 1992; 1993; Reedy & Reedy 1992; Budd et al. 1993a; 1993b) and in the Journal of
Mediterranean Archaeology where it focuses on the Aegean Bronze Age (Budd et al. 1995a; 1995b; Gale & Stos-Gale 1995; Pernicka 1995;
Sayre et al. 1995; Hall 1995; Muhly 1995). However, this concern over
lead isotope research is not new. Some archaeologists have, for a number
of years, been drawing attention to a growing gulf between the
conclusions drawn from some lead isotope programmes, and those of their
own research work (e.g. Cherry & Knapp 1991; Knapp in press; Knapp
et al. 1988; Muhly 1991; 1995). This controversy has disconcerted those
who would like to rely on the analytical results, frustration evident in
a recent editorial in this journal (Chippindale 1994). It is becoming
clear that the interpretation of lead isotope data has not taken place
within a framework which reflects the true complexity either of ore
deposits, or - perhaps more importantly - of metal supply and
circulation in the ancient world. We contend that this crisis of
confidence stems, not from lead isotope measurements themselves, but
from their interpretation.
As modern mass spectrometers are capable of measuring lead isotope
ratios to a high degree of precision, one should be able to have
considerable confidence in the accuracy of published data. The
preparation and analysis of lead-bearing metals or minerals is a routine
and simple task usually undertaken by experienced technicians. Lead-poor
materials (Cypriot copper ores, for example) can be more problematic,
but again tried and tested methods have been developed to process
samples on a routine basis. Unfortunately, recent experience with
re-measuring 'outliers' (Gale & Stos-Gale 1992) and the
rejection of old measurements in new data compilations (Stos-Gale et al.
1995) have shown that some measurements appear not to have been of the
highest precision. This makes it impossible to define accurately the
full extent of the Cypriot and other important ore source fields, a
situation that could be resolved by a systematic re-measurement
programme.
The relative simplicity of lead isotope analysis extends to the
interpretation of lead isotope data. As there are only four naturally
occurring lead isotopes which must add up to 100%, there are only three
independent variables. Every sample can be completely characterized by
three numbers and all that is required to express every attribute of the
data is a three-dimensional plot. Multivariate analyses (Sayre et al.
1992) or discriminant function analyses (Gale 1991) can be applied, but
the usefulness of such approaches is strictly limited. With only three
variables and three axes on which to plot them, sophisticated
multivariate approaches are, at best, unnecessary. Discriminant function
analyses can be used to select rapidly the best projection of
three-dimensional data in order to see the greatest separation between
groups of samples from different ore deposits. However, it can only be
used to calculate the probability of an unknown sample belonging to one
such group under the right circumstances: where all possible groups are
represented, and where all are fully characterized by statistically
significant numbers of samples. This is a rare happening in
archaeometallurgy.
All that is actually required to interpret lead isotope data is a
three-dimensional plot of the ore data and artefacts under
consideration, together with appropriate computer software to rotate and
view it. This can be done using the humblest personal computer. There is
no reason why archaeologists or archaeological scientists should be
marginalized in the interpretation of lead isotope data as even the most
traditionally based archaeologist routinely deals with much more complex
data-sets. What is needed, in the words of one of the referees of this
paper, is 'publication of the mineral data - for samples of stated
archaeological and geological characteristics - in a simple,
straightforward and workable way'.
Proponents of the lead isotope method of provenancing initially hoped
that specific metalliferous regions, be they individual islands such as
Cyprus or Kythnos or mainland deposits such as Lavrion, would have their
characteristic isotope 'signatures' - each significantly
different from one another. In this sense, the programmes can be seen as
the isotopic analogue of those of SAM or Pittioni. There would be some
natural variation in lead isotope composition within each region, but
initial measurements seemed to justify optimism that this would be
relatively small. This being so, each region could be characterized by a
relatively tight grouping of similar ratios which could be plotted as a
'field' on a three-dimensional diagram or on pairs of
two-dimensional plots. The variation in the four naturally occurring
lead isotopes in an ore body is related to the genesis and age of the
deposit. For archaeological purposes this detailed geological
information is largely superfluous. Provided that each ore field is
characterized by sufficient numbers of analyses and the variation
between sources in the region under consideration remains large, then it
should be possible to comment on the provenance of objects of unknown
origin.
It was never going to be practical to define every ore deposit in the
ancient world, and workers were initially forced to define source fields
on less than ideal numbers of analyses. Provided that the analysts were
justified in their assumptions, regarding the limited spread of data
from an individual ore body and the variation between fields within the
region under scrutiny, then provenance analysis could proceed with costs
kept within reasonable bounds. Unfortunately, it is now clear that their
initial assumptions about ore bodies were not well founded. As the work
progressed, it became evident that the variation within many of the ore
sources of interest was much greater than had been hoped and that many
fields defined in a region, such as the Mediterranean, overlapped each
other.
The often-heated debate in Archaeometry and JMA essentially centres
on this point, in a detailed discussion likely to lie beyond the
interest of any but the most scientifically minded archaeologists. At
the heart of the argument is this: do ore source fields, defined using
statistical procedures on selected data rather than the required number
of analytical measurements, have any validity? We maintain that they do
not. In order to maintain apparent separation between source fields, the
Oxford group have suggested that all of the ore sources of the
Mediterranean have lead isotope fields which display little variation
and therefore form very tight and discrete fields on plots of the data.
They imply, incorrectly, that this is because all of the ore deposits in
question conform to a model based on a single emplacement event in
geological time. In reality only a small minority of ore deposits meet
the stringent requirements for this type of geological conformability.
One of the most important deposits, Cyprus, is one such rare example,
but other Mediterranean deposits certainly are not.
The Brookhaven/Smithsonian group have taken this questionable
procedure a stage further. Ignoring the fundamental geology that
underpins lead isotope analysis, they have assumed that data from each
ore field would be normally distributed with respect to each of the
three measured ratios (Sayre et al. 1992a). This assumption of
tri-variate normality is not likely to be correct (Cherry & Knapp
1991; Budd et al. 1993a; 1993b; Scaife et al. in press). The source
fields that seem more precisely defined are achieved by rejecting
'outlying' samples collected from an ore body but somehow not
thought to be representative of its lead isotope field (see Budd et al.
1993a). In attempts to define source fields still more tightly, some
workers have proposed breaking up some, already ill-defined, source
fields into subsets (Sayre et al. 1992; Gale & Stos-Gale 1992). This
can only lead to confusion. In extreme cases proposed sub-groups have
been defined by as few as two measurements and represent single mines
whereas neighbouring mines, only a few kilometres distant, are
supposedly represented by entirely different fields!
A full consideration of the geology of ore formation suggests that
compact and discrete lead isotope fields for individual ore deposits are
likely to be the exception rather than the rule. In contrast to trace
element measurements, there are reasons to expect that some deposits
(those 'conformable' deposits which more or less correspond to
single-age models of emplacement) will have a narrow range of isotopic
values; but this can only be discerned by systematic sampling.
Characterizing deposits by terming some measurements
'outliers' and then igoring them is simply bad science. So it
is that the failings of the lead isotope methodologies proposed by Sayre
et al. (1992) and the sub-fields suggested by the Oxford group in
response (Gale & Stos-Gale 1992) are the same as those which
afflicted the SAM study. The groupings - trace element or isotopic -
created by this form of analysis are essentially statistical artefacts
which may or may not coincide with entities that have geological or
archaeological integrity. The SAM group (incorrectly) assumed that
artefacts which were statistically associated in terms of their impurity
patterns must derive from the same source, and that artefacts falling
outside the group must be derived from a different source. The
Brookhaven/Smithsonian group have (incorrectly) assumed that ores (and
slags) which are statistically associated in terms of their lead isotope
composition must derive from the same source, and that those falling
outside the statistical group must be derived from a different source.
With the collapse of the simplistic provenancing approach, the
challenge for researchers today is to develop a framework for the
archaeological interpretation of lead isotope data in which the
limitations imposed by geology or by the complexity of metal production
and use are acknowledged and freely discussed. This discussion must not
be the exclusive preserve of a restricted group of archaeological
scientists, for the answers,involve integrating archaeological
information to the greatest possible extent. Kept apart, the isotope
data will never yield meaningful patterns.
A new framework for metals analysis
The question of how ore deposits can be defined in geological or
chemical terms begs a profound question: 'what constitutes an ore
source for prehistoric metallurgy?' So far, ore sources have been
considered in terms of islands or large mainland deposits, but this
concept is breaking down. The attempts by the Brookhaven/Smithsonian and
Oxford groups to sub-divide the Cyprus field into component parts has
been discussed (see above and Budd et al. 1995). Unfortunately, the
relationship between the lead isotope ratio of an ore deposit and its
geographical location is complex. It does not necessarily follow that
deposits which are close together will have similar compositions. We
believe it is not useful to attempt to characterize individual mines
within a metalliferous region such as Cyprus for archaeological as well
as geological reasons. Current data show that individual Cypriot mines
have ranges of lead isotope ratios which overlap one another (Budd et
al. 1995a), but even if they could be accurately resolved there are
further objections. There are specific localities at which copper
mineralization would have been accessible to ancient miners, but the
number of potential sources is vast. Outcrops insignificant in modern
economic terms could have yielded plentiful resources for ancient
production. Ancient mining localities may have been destroyed by
subsequent activity or worked to the extent that representative minerals
are no longer available to be sampled. It is impossible to know whether
one has measured all the possible ore sources in a region and highly
likely that one has not.
The whole concept of metal artefacts being derived from a single raw
material source is problematic in the complex craft and trading world of
the Late Bronze Age Aegean in which metals are accumulated in bulk and
transported long distances. Such ideas are a relic of analogies with
modern industries based on particular raw materials, utilising a
specialist work force and specific technology. These views are now being
independently rejected as a model for prehistoric metal-working
(Sherratt 1994; Budd & Taylor 1995; Budd et al. in press). We
believe that it is more reasonable to see oxhide ingots as part of a
body of smelted copper which might well have been made from raw
materials from more than one source. This idea, discussed at length
elsewhere (Budd et al. 1995a; 1995b), can explain the relatively tight
range of lead isotope compositions of the ingots and their distribution
on bi-variate plots, centring towards one side of the Cypriot field. In
any system involving the random mixing of primary smelting products from
different sources, any degree of weighting (such that one source tends
to introduce more copper and another less and so on), will result in
secondary material which has a smaller range of lead isotope ratios than
any of the individual source groups. If significant recycling is then
involved in artefact production, the cluster of values will be tighter
still. The position of any such cluster will be somewhere between those
of the various sources, depending on their relative contributions. The
problem is that it will not be possible to know where all the sources
may have been, or even if they are all represented by the available
measurements. Extracting the component parts from such a system might be
very difficult.
Clearly, as happened with trace element analysis, the application of
lead isotopes to provenancing archaeological copper alloys is becoming a
proposition far more complex than was initially anticipated. Where the
limits of variation of a given ore body are fully defined, any artefact
which does not fit within the bounds of the field and its attendant
experimental errors is known to derive, at least in part, from material
from elsewhere. The inescapable difficulty is that an artefact that
falls outside an ore source field is not necessarily wholly derived from
another ore. If one has independent evidence that the group of artefacts
under investigation were produced from a single source, then it may be
possible to draw conclusions regarding locations from which they did not
come. In more complex - and perhaps more usual - situations, large
quantities of copper would have been in circulation over areas with more
than one raw material source; then it may never be realistic to expect
lead isotope or trace element measurements to assign provenance
unambiguously. Analytical data might be able only to exclude sources
which are highly unlikely to have contributed significantly to the
metalwork under investigation. Perhaps the whole concept of provenance
is redundant as far as prehistoric metals are concerned. Why should we
expect, in the complex later prehistoric world, that each object was
made from copper extracted only from a single locality and that, once
produced, copper alloys were never re-used? The complicated fabrication history and widely scattered iconographic influences attested in
spectacular later prehistoric metalwork like Denmark's famous
Gundestrup cauldron (Taylor 1992) argue persuasively against that narrow
view.
There are ways forward. The Heidelberg/ Mainz group have explored the
combination of lead isotope with trace element data to achieve better
discrimination between raw material sources, but have always accepted
that this would not work if recycling and metal mixing were commonplace
(Pernicka et al. 1984). There is some hope that other isotopic systems
may indicate the extent of recycling (Budd et al. 1995c). Perhaps the
long-term answer, however, is to change the question. The oxhide ingots
of copper that now look less attractive for provenance studies remain
just as important to the study of Bronze Age production and trade (Knapp
in press). This observation is underlain by a crucial point:
provenancing is not the only way in which to study the organization of
prehistoric metal production and use. Perhaps detecting change in the
pattern of metal procurement and use is more useful than assigning
provenance. Knapp (in press) has observed that some 30% of the analysed
metal finds from a large number of Late Bronze Age Cypriot sites have
lead isotope ratios inconsistent with the Cyprus field and suggests that
mixing and re-melting of metal - for which there is also evidence from
coeval 'foundry' hoards - may have played a role in this.
Putting this together with the proposal that some oxhide ingots may have
been made from copper originating from more than one location, he goes
on to speculate over the possible implications for the development of
Late Bronze Age social organization. In this view recycling and the
pooling of copper from multiple sources is seen not simply as a
back-projection from our contemporary ideas, but as genuinely
represented in the material record, suggesting social interactions
across cultural borders in the development of a regional economic
sphere. Late Bronze Age metallurgy is seen as a complex system in which
multiple sources feed into a koine of stock material circulating by
virtue of trade, through exchange and perhaps inferring the intervention
of developing regional political and/or magico-religious authorities.
As with the large-scale trace-element analytical programmes that
preceded it, lead isotope analysis has brought us some way towards
unlocking the question of provenance, but definitive answers elude us.
Lead isotope ratios will, and should, continue to be measured as part of
archaeometallurgical research programmes, but a more flexible approach
to their interpretation is required. In particular there is a need to
re-evaluate the emphasis on provenance and to develop a framework better
suited to the analytical tools we have. This requires a clear dialogue
between analysts and the field-workers they support in an environment of
rigorous scientific review of approaches and methodologies. These
changes are likely to come about naturally as the days become numbered
for 'large equipment' facilities for the sole support of
archaeology, but scientists must not be allowed to develop an arrogant
monopoly in the interpretation of analytical data. Archaeologists must
be directly involved in this and in the formulation of relevant but
testable hypotheses which move beyond the tired old idea of provenance.
A reliable base of data from lead isotope determinations
In a welcome development since this paper was first drafted, the
editor of the journal Archaeometry has undertaken to provide a rapid
method of publication for archaeological lead-isotope data in a similar
form to the, now familiar, radiocarbon date lists. We feel sure that
this will help to clear the current backlog of unpublished measurements
and hope that it will result in a comprehensive and reliable database to
facilitate the wider interpretation for which we have argued.
The Archaeometry database is intended, for the deposits covered, to
be a definitive statement of what is regarded as current reliable data
from the Isotrace Laboratory in Oxford (Gale pers. comm.). The
measurements tabulated in the first publication in the series - on ores
from the western Mediterranean (Stos-Gale et al. 1995) - are a mixture
of new and previously published analyses. Some previously published
samples are omitted; some because they are only single measurements from
otherwise uncharacterized deposits for which more data are expected, and
some because they have been rejected until re-measured on grounds of
precision, possible contamination and instrument problems (Gale pers.
comm.). The specific criteria for data selection are not always made
clear in this initial paper, but publication of an explanation of the
guidelines underlying data selection and of more, recently acquired,
western Mediterranean ore data is anticipated in the near future (Gale
pers. comm.).
We strongly support this effort to produce a straightforward and
reliable database of lead isotope measurements for ore deposits of
archaeological interest. Clearly, it is advantageous to remove bad or
suspect data in the construction of ore fields and we are pleased to
note that a comprehensive re-measurement programme is now under way at
Oxford with this objective. There is, however, a danger that the
temporary omission of data from some deposits, pending further or repeat
measurements, will lead to a false impression of the overall spread of
data from a region; suggesting a more limited field for the region than
is actually the case. We note, for instance, that one immediate effect
of the omissions from the new Sardinian database is to create the
impression of smaller, more discrete, field with only a few outlying
samples. We are confident, however, that any danger of misinterpretation
can be avoided by comprehensive sampling and analysis and we look
forward to the further publications which are promised.
Acknowledgements. Two of the authors (PB and BS) are supported by the
Natural Environment Research Council (UK) and one (RGT) by the
Australian Research Council. Many thanks to Tim Taylor and referees for
many helpful comments and suggestions on earlier versions of this
manuscript.
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