Views on immigration: the impact of public opinion on global migration.

Liebig, Thomas

With economic recovery picking up and baby-boomers beginning to retire in many member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the question of whether or not to rely on more labor migration to support economic growth is again at the forefront of the policy debate, particularly in Europe. Calculations by the OECD Secretariat for the 2010 International Migration Outlook demonstrate that on average, in the absence of migration, there will be 30 percent more exits than entries to the working-age population of high-income OECD countries in the year 2020. In Germany and Poland, this figure will be above 70 percent. Immigration, in conjunction with policies such as better mobilization of domestic human resources, is one way to help alleviate the labor shortages that will result from these demographic trends. Indeed, prior to the crisis, many OECD countries had already taken measures to facilitate labor migration, and these policies were one of the driving forces behind the growth in international migration until 2008.

Yet public opinion in many countries does not seem readily accepting of more labor immigration, as evidenced by the rise of anti-immigrant parties. An analysis of opinion surveys in the 2010 OECD International Migration Outlook shows that although the respondents generally recognize a beneficial impact of immigration on the economy, they would still prefer less immigration in the future.

This paradox seems to be due to skepticism regarding immigrants' willingness to integrate into the host society. Public opinion in virtually all European OECD countries sees such willingness as a more important criterion for selection than immigrants' skills. So-called "civic integration" policies--aimed at promoting language mastery and knowledge of the host country's institutions and history--have become a widespread reaction to this public opinion.

Social integration tends to be closely linked with economic integration. Indeed, the reason why the former is less of an issue in countries like Australia and Canada is that for many years they have been accepting large numbers of labor immigrants on the basis of their skills: in 2008, per-capita labor immigration to these countries was about 2.5 times higher than to the European OECD countries and 10 times higher than to the United States. This policy has resulted in an immigrant population with more favorable socio-economic characteristics on average, thereby limiting negative preconceptions about immigrants as a group and improving integration outcomes. Whereas political messages involving immigrants in Australia and Canada generally relate to immigrants' contributions toward a better future, xenophobic elements appear to have gained prominence in other OECD countries where immigrants are lower-skilled on average than the native-born population.

The challenge with respect to public opinion is not to obtain a consensus on immigration issues, but rather to limit false preconceptions. As noted in the 2007 and 2008 OECD publications Jobs for Immigrants (Vol. 1 & 2), the focus in public debate on the unfavorable integration outcomes of some immigrant groups tends to obscure positive facts and accounts. First, the vast majority of immigrants are well integrated into the labor markets and societies of OECD countries. Second, immigrants take up many jobs that cannot be readily filled by the native-born, either because the latter do not want them or because the necessary skills for these jobs are not available in the domestic labor market. Third, contrary to public perception, there has been a significant improvement in labor market outcomes of immigrants in the decade prior to the crisis in most countries, along with an increase in educational attainment levels driven by new arrivals. Fourth, both immigrants and offspring of immigrants with low levels of education tend to have a higher labor market participation rate than low-educated offspring of natives. The unfavorable labor market outcomes observed in many European OECD countries are thus mainly due to the fact that immigrants tend to have a lower average level of education and that the qualifications of immigrants, when obtained in non-OECD countries, are largely discounted in the labour markets of OECD countries.

Public opinion influences not only the acceptance of additional immigration in the societies of OECD countries but also may crucially impact the integration of existing immigrant populations. Ambivalent messages with regard to immigration risk encouraging discriminatory attitudes. These may, in turn, effect the behavior of immigrants themselves--for example, their willingness to learn the host country language. Ultimately, such attitudes may lead to immigrants' disaffection with host countries, rendering anxieties about immigration self-fulfilling prophecies.

THOMAS LIEBIG serves in the International Migration Division, Directorate for Employment, Labour & Social Affairs, OECD, Paris.