On the edge: threats to Jordanian reform.

Sullivan, Matthew

On many levels, Jordan continues to stand among Arab-Muslim countries as the best hope for facilitating peace and genuine democratic reform in the Middle East. Ten years ago, Jordan's King Hussein and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin signed a landmark peace treaty second only to Israel's 1979 accord with Egypt. King Abdullah, Hussein's successor, has overseen five years of moderate political and economic reforms and has distinguished himself among Arab leaders as the most consistent, liberal advocate of reform. Today, committed reformers, Muslim Brotherhood members, and several women all hold seats in Jordan's parliament. Yet in light of the stalled US-led "Road Map" and ongoing violence under the occupation of Iraq, hope for accelerated democratization in Jordan is waning. Indeed, external events and domestic pressures are encumbering Jordan's ability to serve as the region's leading voice for peace and model for reform.

The Jordanian monarchy's difficult relations with the majority Palestinian population have been exacerbated by developments since 2000. The construction of a security fence in the West Bank and the Israeli plan for unilateral withdrawal from Gaza have produced discontent. Critics have decried Abdullah's calls for the Palestinian Authority to complete institutional restructuring and to articulate more specific demands of Israel that could serve as a point of departure for renewed negotiations. The al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade issued a statement condemning Abdullah for betrayal of the Palestinian cause and many Jordanian Palestinians share this sentiment. While King Abdullah's marriage to a Palestinian woman with familial ties to the West Bank and his appointment of Palestinians to ministerial positions reflect a desire for inclusion, tensions are likely to remain high so long as the Israeli-Palestinian situation does not improve.

Second, Jordan's tactical support for the war in Iraq and assistance since the fall of Baghdad have raised the possibility of a violent response from Islamic militants. In a reversal of King Hussein's support of Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War, Abdullah permitted territorial access to US Special Forces in 2003 and has helped with the training of Iraqi police and soldiers. The shift sparked a new cycle of outspoken criticism and Jordan, like other coalition members, has been the target of Islamic terrorism. Last spring, Jordanian police claimed to have disrupted a plot to employ chemical weapons against governmental and US targets in Amman. The details of the effort appear consistent with Al Qaeda operations, which use armored trucks and large quantities of explosives, and Jordanian authorities believe that Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, a militia leader in neighboring Iraq, was behind the plan.

Deviation from reform efforts reflects a need perceived by Jordanian officials to counteract such opposition and enhance security. Jordan's most recent major governmental shakeup came in October 2003. At that time, the number of cabinet ministers was cut by a quarter, a new appointment system for municipal councils was enacted, and Feisal al-Fayez, a former royal court official with a reputation for compliance, was selected as prime minister. While the restructuring was billed as a means to infuse talent and limit tribal influence from government, many believed its primary motivation was a greater empowerment of Abdullah. The arrest of more than three dozen Islamic leaders on September 9, 2004, signaled that the Interior Ministry's surveillance efforts would extend inside mosque walls, and one cleric spent three days in prison after refusing to sign a statement promising to temper his criticisms. It is unclear, however, whether any of the arrested leaders had ties to violent opposition groups.

The near future will hold further challenges for Abdullah and Jordanian reformers. Iraq, Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza remain vulnerable to escalating conflict, and several government officials have expressed fears that Israeli policy in the West Bank will produce an influx of Palestinians into Jordan. The United States has been forced to distance itself from reform efforts so as to avoid contaminating the cause with a US label. Indeed, the greatest challenge for Abdullah and other Jordanian leaders is to defeat its increasingly violent opponents while creating a reform process and peace initiatives with an Arab face. Speaking last May as host of the World Economic Forum, Abdullah called for democratic reform, yet added that "for reform to succeed, it must emerge from within our societies and not through external influence." While Abdullah's task is great, the price of stagnation, repression, and violence is greater and demands a continuation of Jordanian initiative and knowledge.

staff writer

MATTHEW SULLIVAN