Seeing the world scientifically: Ewan Harrison reviews The Power of International Theory.

Harrison, Ewan

Since its rise in prominence after the First World War, the discipline of international relations theory has sought to use scientific analysis to enlighten foreign policy. This aspiration has been the focus of considerable criticism over the years, yet it has continued to exert a pervasive influence on debates within the field.

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In The Power of International Theory, Fred Chernoff offers a powerful and long overdue defense of the utility of scientific analysis in foreign policy. His book underscores the continued relevance of prediction as the only way international theorists can provide assistance to policy makers who wish to influence future events. The book also offers a fascinating exploration of how debates on the philosophy of science can inform evaluations of social scientific theory and a useful discussion of the scientific progress within the discipline. These contributions ensure that the book will be essential reading for both the philosophy of social science and international relations theory.

Chernoff's book begins by defending the importance of prediction to international relations as a policy science. Forming foreign policy implies assumptions about how proposed policies will affect the world. The scientific study of international relations provides propositions about regularities in international behavior from which it is possible to derive predictive statements. Thus, the study of international relations should be in a strong position to inform the conduct of foreign policy.

Chernoff is careful to recognize that prediction in the social sciences is fraught with difficulty; however, he defends the importance of prediction against those who argue that the open nature of social systems makes it impossible. Human behavior cannot be easily determined, but the study of international relations can involve systematic research that offers at least probabilistic assessments of the future. Moreover, Chernoff argues that this positive approach does not diminish the importance of the normative evaluation of foreign policy behavior. Since "ought to implies can," normative theory should benefit from scientific inquiry that has a predictive element. Without the guidance these predictions offer, the moral significance of policy makers' actions cannot be fully evaluated. Chernoff's argument, however, is not simply that predictive analysis of international relations can be useful for policy makers who wish to promote their values and defend their national interests. Chernoff's book is a reminder that making predictions is ultimately unavoidable in the conduct of foreign policy.

Chernoff's book makes a second major contribution by applying criteria for the appraisal of theories drawn from the philosophy of science to international relations literature. This area has become an important avenue of inquiry within the field with recent major works considering the relevance of the "sophisticated falsifacationism" associated with Imre Lakatos' methodology of scientific research programs. Chernoff offers an interesting alternative view based on Pierre Duham's notion of conventionalism.

According to Duham, conventional choices of measurement stipulations are capable of producing convergence and approach-to-consensus within any given research community. Different researchers may adopt different theoretical axioms that are consistent with different sets of observations. Progress occurs when a common choice of stipulations is adopted. Chernoff argues that the debate over the necessity of democratic peace has produced this kind of accumulation of knowledge within the discipline. This progress has been driven by agreement around a set of measurement stipulations related to definitions of liberal democracy which have provided structure to the exchanges between the various contributors. This kind of debate shows the power that international theory may wield if discipline-wide measurement conventions are developed. It provides a model, in Chernoff's view, of exactly the kind of social scientific knowledge with a strong predictive content that may be of use to informing foreign policy.

Chernoff's book will no doubt attract criticism because of his strong defense of the value of adopting a scientific approach to the study of international relations and the role of prediction within the social sciences. But these have always been controversial views. Chernoff's contribution is valuable because of the rigor and conviction with which he articulates his position. His book will become a major point of reference for proponents and opponents of the scientific study of international relations alike.

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EWAN HARRISON is Lecturer in Politics at The Queens College, Oxford University. The Power of International Theory, by Fred Chernoff (Routledge, 2004), can be found at www.hir.harvard.edu.