Mending fences: warmer US-Canadian relations.

Hemel, Daniel

Not since US President James Polk threatened to invade British Columbia in 1845 have tempers flared so hotly along the US-Canadian border. In March 2003, Carolyn Parish, a member of Parliament from Canada's ruling Liberal Party, publicly exclaimed: "Damn Americans, I hate those bastards." Parish's remarks came less than five months after Francoise Ducros, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Jean Chretien, described US President George Bush as a "moron" while speaking within earshot of reporters at the NATO summit in Prague.

These political insults underscore more substantive disputes between the two neighbors. In April 2002, a US F-16 fighter pilot fired a laser-guided missile into a Canadian training area south of Kandahar, Afghanistan, killing four Canadian soldiers and wounding eight others. The same spring, the United States imposed a 27 percent tariff on softwood lumber imports from Canada to combat dumping of subsidized Canadian surplus lumber. In March 2003, the US Congress cut funding for a four-year-old joint US-Canadian effort to monitor Pacific Ocean salmon stocks. In May 2003, the US government barred importation of Canadian beef, fearing the spread of mad cow disease from Canada, and halting what had been a US$1.2 billion per year trade. President Bush's rejection of the Kyoto Protocol and Prime Minister Chretien's criticism of the US intervention in Iraq have only deepened the rift.

Now, with former Finance Minister Paul Martin likely succeeding the retiring Chretien as prime minister in February 2004, senior officials in the Bush administration, including Undersecretary of State for Western Hemispheric Affairs Roger Noriega and US Ambassador to Canada Paul Cellucci, have indicated that they expect a reconciliation between Washington and Ottawa. Martin, a successful steamship tycoon with an estimated personal fortune of US$475 million, has amassed widespread support within the Liberal Party; despite being far more conservative on economic issues than the Liberal rank-and-file. Martin's political ascension has been fueled largely by his reputation as a pragmatist and a consensus-builder. As such, Martin--once he becomes prime minister--is likely to mend mangled US-Canadian ties.

Martin has already committed to a series of measures that will strengthen the US-Canadian relationship. He has advocated Canadian assistance to the US-led construction of a space-based missile defense shield. Both he and Chretien hope that the project will operate through the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), a joint US-Canadian alliance. Negotiations between the two countries have reportedly stalled, with Washington opting to wait until Martin's inauguration before further pursuing the initiative. Meanwhile, thee shield's proponents have asserted their power in Parliament, passing a resolution advocating any system developed to defend America against ballistic missiles by a 156 to 73 margin in June 2003. Once Martin assumes control, increased cooperation between the two countries in the military sphere could bridge the US-Canadian rift.

Second, Martin's vow to augment Canadian military outlays should allay US criticism of Ottawa's meager nine billion US dollar-defense budget. Canada's appropriations for its armed forces amounted to only 1.1 percent of its gross domestic product in 2002--less than every other NATO country, except for Luxembourg and Iceland. With 1,900 Canadian troops deployed in Afghanistan and an additional 1,200 in the Balkans, Canada's armed forces are already stretched thin. Martin wants to enhance Canada's on-the-ground capabilities, which potentially could alleviate the peacekeeping burden on US troops abroad. Such development would undoubtedly elicit gratitude and perhaps even crucial concessions from officials in Washington.

Third, Martin has promised to form a cabinet committee, chaired by the prime minister, to develop a strategic approach to US-Canadian relations. Martin's proposal recognizes that US-Canadian relations cannot be managed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs alone, because domestic decisions regarding issues such as gay marriage and decriminalization of marijuana will further impact ties between the two states. The last prime minister to personally monitor day-to-day affairs with Washington was Brian Mulroney, and his tenure from 1984 to 1993 saw the most cordial relationship between the United States and Canada in history, resulting in the formation of North American Free Trade Association. Simultaneously, Martin must navigate the tricky political currents of Parliament. Martin can pass measures to boost defense spending and engender rapprochement with the United States by relying on votes from the right-of-center Canadian Alliance as well as the Progressive Conservative faction. But he must recognize that many in his own Liberal Party harbor ill feeling for the Bush administration and will look sourly on conciliatory Canadian policies. Anti-US sentiment also appears to be rampant among the electorate. A January 2003 poll conducted by Ipsos-Reid indicated that 36 percent of Canadians view the United States as the biggest menace to world peace, compared to 40 percent for Al Qaeda, 17 percent for Iraq, and 14 percent far North Korea.

Recent signals from Washington indicate that the United States may be ready for compromise. In early August 2003, US Secretary of Agriculture Ann Veneman partially lifted the ban on Canadian beef, permitting meat from cows younger than 30 months to enter the United States, but kept the border closed to Canadian livestock. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting inside Canada for an end to the detrimental rift. Business leaders fear that anti US sentiment will damage the Canadian economy.

Provincial premiers, including Lorne Calvert of Saskatchewan, Ralph Klein of Alberta, and Ernie Eves of Ontario, are taking matters into their own hands, and arranging personal meetings with US officials to press the case for greater access to US markets. According to a survey conducted in March 2003 on behalf of the Association for Canadian Studies, 52 percent of Canadians identified rising anti-US sentiment in their own country as a cause for concern. Thus a host of difficult issues divide the United States and Canada. Although the task of reconciliation is still a tall order, Martin's natural talent for consensus-building could pave the way for a better US-Canadian relationship.