Indicators of commitment to the church: a longitudinal study of church-affiliated youth.

Dudley, Roger L.

INTRODUCTION

According to Wieting (1975), "A recurrent focus of social philosophy since Plato's Republic has been the threat posed by the possibility that the young might not adopt the essential wisdom and values of that society. . . . If a society is to continue its existence beyond one generation, the members must transmit what they consider to be necessary knowledge and values. The continuity of a social system by definition requires transmission between generations." Applying this to institutional religion, churches and other religious communities must be vitally concerned with retaining the children from member families--in other words, preventing youth dropout is a major consideration for any religious group that desires a future.

In a major quantitative, ecumenical study of church disengagement and reentry, based on the 1978 Gallup survey of unchurched Americans, Roozen (1980) estimated that about 46% of Americans drop out of church participation at some time in their lives, with the peak occurring during the teenage years. Probable causes for the increase at this stage were lessening of parental influence as peer pressure and the emancipation process increased, plus the feeling that the church had little to offer that was relevant or interesting.

Yet many teenagers remain committed to their childhood religion. In a study of 3,000 evangelical teenagers, Zuck and Getz (1968) found that religious values were of significance to 88% of them. Four out of five attended church every week, two out of three prayed daily, and six out of ten professed belief in key evangelical doctrines. What factors, then, predict retention or dropout?

Dudley and Laurent (1989) found that among Wesleyan, United Methodist, and American Baptist young people, alienation from the church was best predicted by unpleasant experiences with the church, lack of involvement, uninteresting sermons, deficient devotional life, and religious restrictions on lifestyle. Among Catholics, Southern Baptists, and Methodists, Hoge and Petrillo (1978) found that church attendance and participation were most influenced by the attendance of parents, peer pressure, type of youth leader, and quality of religious education.

In a study of over 33,000 college graduates, Caplovitz and Sherrow (1977) reported that disaffiliation was related to rebellion against the status quo, secularization, and achievement orientation. Dudley (1978) found that alienation from religion among a group of 400 Seventh-day Adventists in parochial schools was highly correlated with perceptions of the quality of their relationships with religious authority figures.

The present paper is an attempt to refine our understanding of those factors which influence church retention or dropout by analyzing data from two years of a longitudinal study of Seventh-day Adventist teenagers.

METHOD

In 1987, the Seventh-day Adventist church in the United States and Canada began a ten-year study of youth retention and dropout. The aim of the project was to select a group of middle adolescents who were already members of the church and to survey them each year for ten years in order to determine the factors that were related to staying or leaving.

The first step was to pick 695 churches by a stratified random sampling method so that they were geographically representative of all Adventist churches in North America. The clerks of these churches were then requested to send the names and addresses of all members who were 15 or 16 years of age. Clerks of 659 churches responded (95%), and a six-page questionnaire was mailed to each teenager. Usable instruments were received from 1,523 (64% response rate), and each year follow-up surveys have been mailed. The youth are distributed across the United States and Canada, roughly in the same proportion as the geographic distribution of the adult membership.

Detailed findings for the first three years have been reported elsewhere (Dudley & Kangas, 1990; Dudley, 1991). This paper focuses on a single aspect--the relationship of certain variables on the third- and fourth-year questionnaires to present commitment to the church. Thus, the analysis does not attempt to measure time changes (a later task) but looks at the extent to which commitment is correlated with certain cognitive, experiential, and behavioral dimensions of religion. These data were collected in 1989 and 1990 when the subjects were 17 to 19 years old.

Of course, some attrition from the original sample has occurred, although every effort is being made to find correct addresses and to encourage subjects to continue, including four or five mailings each year. Some respondents will skip a year or two and then start again. Surveys were completed by 1,083 youth in the third year and 912 in the fourth year. Matching the records resulted in 859 cases with surveys for both years, and the findings are based on these cases.

Each year the question was asked: What is your present relationship toward the Seventh-day Adventist church? Possible responses, with percentages choosing each, were: (1) enthusiastic member, 25%; (2) so-so member, 50%; (3) officially a member, but not in heart, 18%; (4) have dropped out, 7%. The last two responses indicate that approximately one-fourth of the sample have already given up on the church. The situation may be even more serious, however, since it is logical to assume that the dropout rate for the nonrespondents may be even higher. Commitment to the church, as measured by this question on the fourth-year questionnaire, constitutes the dependent variable.

This variable was first correlated with all other questions on the third- and fourth-year surveys. These other questions concern personal relationships, doctrinal statements, church activity, standards, ethics, public issues, and demographic information. Items with significant zero-order correlations with commitment were selected for a multiple regression analysis, which reveals the unique contribution to commitment of each variable while controlling all other variables in the equation. These independent variables may be classified as follows:

Personal religion: strength of relationship with Jesus; assurance of present salvation; satisfaction with life; satisfaction with religion.

Doctrinal statements: agreement with literal, six-day creation; standing with God based on obedience to His law; investigative judgment began in heaven in 1844; Jesus will come the second time in our generation; Seventh-day Adventist is the true church; inspiration of Ellen White (Adventist prophetess).

Church activity: presence of youth ministry in congregation; participation in short-term mission project; interest in short-term mission project; level of church activity; perception of importance to local congregation; interest in discipleship seminar; interest in community service; interest in seminar for drug-free youth; interest in wilderness experience.

Church standards and ethical considerations: attitudes toward Adventist standards and rules; favor laws restricting most abortions; attitudes toward premarital sex, homosexuality, abortion, and extramarital sex.

Demographics: type of school attended; educational plans; ethnic background; marital status; family financial situation.

FINDINGS

The regression analysis is presented in Table 1. While responses to the original questions varied in direction, the signs of the betas have been adjusted to give the high score to the listed quality. None of the demographic items retained significance in the presence of the selected variables. The stepwise package explains 50% of the variance in the church commitment scores and is highly significant.

The strongest influence was relationship with Jesus. Those youth who indicated that their relationship with Jesus Christ was stronger now than at the beginning of the study three years before were more likely to have a strong commitment to the church than those who found the relationship weaker or absent. Thus, subjective spiritual experience and church commitment seem to go together.

Subjects were asked to indicate how active they were in the church, such as holding an office or participating in witnessing activities. Responses ranged from "very active" to "never do anything." At the second step, involvement is seen to be important to commitment to the church.

The third step moves to the doctrinal agreement area. Those who agreed that the Adventist church is God's true church were more likely to be committed and active. The causal flow probably moves in both directions, but it is clear that commitment has a cognitive component.

The fourth step returns to the experiential dimension. Specifically, those who believed that they would be "saved" if Jesus were to come right now tended to be the most committed to the church. While this might indicate a cognitive response to a stated teaching, it is more likely that it expresses a subjective sense of "rightness" with God.

Table 1
REGRESSION OF SELECTED VARIABLES ON COMMITMENT TO THE CHURCH
(N=859)(*)
 Multiple
Step Variable R |R.sup.2~ Beta
1 Relationship with Jesus .55 .31 .41
2 Level of church activity .64 .41 .16
3 Belief that Seventh-day
Adventist is true church .66 .43 .18
4 Assurance of present
salvation .67 .45 .13
5 Interested in short-term
mission project .69 .47 .11
6 Believe standing with
God based on obedience to
God's law .69 .48 -.11
7 Perception of importance
to local congregation .70 .49 .10
8 Favor laws restricting
abortion in most cases .70 .49 .08
9 Belief that investigative
judgment began in
heaven in 1844 .71 .50 .08
10 Peers are more likely
to use illegal drugs .71 .50 -.07
* Regression is significant beyond .0001 level. All figures
have been rounded to two decimal places. Signs have been
adjusted so that listed quality obtains high score. Betas
listed are those for the final step when all variables have
been entered into the equation.

The fifth step echoes the theme of involvement found in the second step. Those who expressed high interest in going on a short-term mission project were likely to be the most committed to the church. Again the influence flows both ways.

The sixth step introduces a very interesting relationship between doctrine and commitment. The item reads: "A person's standing with God is based on his/her obedience to God's law." Actually, this does not represent Adventist doctrine, which holds that the basis for salvation depends entirely on the merits of Jesus and is made operable by faith in His atonement. Obedience is the result and not the ground of salvation. However, the Adventists' high view of the Ten Commandments has resulted in many members being confused on this teaching. Here, 46% agreed with the item, 34% disagreed, and 20% were uncertain. Other research has revealed that significant numbers of Adventist adults agree (wrongly, according to church teachings) with this statement. Yet among this sample--as the negative beta shows--those who disagreed with it were the most likely to be committed to the church. Perhaps belief in the concept embodied in the statement leads to discouragement and dropout when the youth confront their personal failings and realize that their lives do not measure up to the standard.

The seventh step plays once more on the involvement theme. Those youth who perceived that they are vital to the life of their local congregations were more likely to be committed to Adventism than those who sensed that their congregations do not know they exist.

The eighth step touches on ethical considerations. Those who favored laws restricting abortions except in cases where the mother's life is in danger or that result from rape tended to be more committed to the church. While the Adventist church had taken no official position on either abortion or abortion legislation at the time of the survey, the church has always held a high view of human life. This is seen in their regard for the Ten Commandments, including "You shall not murder," and in their noncombatant position regarding military service. Their proscription of sex outside of the marriage relationship might also tilt against abortion.

At the ninth step, agreement with the doctrine of the investigative judgment predicted church commitment. Space does not allow a description of this teaching based on interpretation of Bible prophecies, but it is considered basic to the Adventist church's self-understanding and sense of identity.

Finally, those most committed to the church were less likely (negative beta) to have peers who use illegal drugs on a regular basis. No doubt, for teenagers, peer influence is strong and may have an impact on religious commitment. Again, influence flows both ways, and those who are most committed may choose their friends more wisely.

CONCLUSION

What kinds of things mark the difference between late adolescents who remain enthusiastic members of their local congregations and those who drop out either in heart or in body? Analysis of this representative sample of Seventh-day Adventists indicates that the correlates of retention or dropout are multidimensional in nature. Cognitive or belief components, activity or involvement components, and experiential components all combine in predicting commitment. Ethical considerations, a perception of one's importance to the local congregation, and peer influence also play a part.

Since various measures of ideology, religious experience, and ritual activity are often used as measures of religious commitment, it may be asked if these findings constitute a tautology--correlating commitment with itself. This study, however, focused on something very specific--the extent to which young people consider themselves to be enthusiastic or halfhearted members of a church or no longer members at all. Belief, experience, and even church attendance or congregational activity are not necessarily the same thing, as the limited size of the correlation coefficients reveals. One can believe in the truth of the doctrines and yet drop out. One can have a deep personal religious experience and yet disassociate from the corporate body. One can even be active in congregational activity for social reasons but not be personally committed to the church. The present analysis helps us discover just how strong these relationships are.

The regression package proved to be a strong predictor, accounting for half of the variance in commitment even when controlling for demographics and other variables. Of course, the direction or even the presence of causation cannot be established. The influence is no doubt mutual. But the strong contribution of the regression package to prediction certainly suggests areas in which church leaders and youth ministers may intervene in an attempt to minimize dropout and retain a greater proportion of young adults for the church.

REFERENCES

Caplovitz, D., & Sherrow, F. (1977). The religious dropouts. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

Dudley, R. L. (1978). Alienation from religion in adolescents from fundamentalist religious homes. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 17, 389-398.

Dudley, R. L. (1991, July 18). Survey reveals struggles of church's youth. Adventist Review, pp. 21-22.

Dudley, R. L., & Kangas, J. L. (1990). The world of the Adventist teenager. Hagerstown, MD: Review and Herald Publishing Association.

Dudley, R. L., & Laurent, C. R. (1989). Alienation from religion in church-related adolescents. Sociological Analysis, 49, 408-420.

Hoge, D. R., & Petrillo, G. H. (1978). Determinants of church participation and attitudes among high-school youth. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 17, 359-379.

Roozen, D. A. (1980). Church dropouts: Changing patterns of disengagement and re-entry. Review of Religious Research, 21 (supplement), 427-450.

Wieting, S. G. (1975). An examination of intergenerational patterns of religious beliefs and practice. Sociological Analysis, 36, 137-149.

Zuck, R. G., & Getz, G. A. (1968). Christian youth--An in-depth study. Chicago: Moody Press.