Model of analysis of influencing factors on the Romanian postal and courier services market.

Georgescu, Silviu Dorin

Introduction

Services exist in interdependence relations with the other activity sectors, they ensure connections among all the sectors of the economy, have a stimulating role in the economic growth. The connections of the services' sector to the other branches of activity are structured along two main lines--the impact with the production sector and populations' needs (1). A company specialized in supplying services can offer superior quality services and lower prices to production firms than the ones the latter can obtain for themselves. This is why more and more firms externalise their services to specialized firms (2).

In order to face the challenges of a competitive environment, the management of services companies has to master a strategy that corresponds the requests specific to the firm's objectives, operating environment, resources and the manner in which they are used. According to the literature, strategic management is more than strategic planning, definitions given by specialists in the field highlighting the fact that strategic management is a "modern form of leading an entreprise" (3). The strategies of growth adopted by the courier companies were different, however, one can identify the prevalence of the strategies of national growth through the services franchising system (4). In all cases, a company's success stands in a strong, solid management, capable of understanding both the clients' expectations and the employees' demands, of accomplishing its objectives and mission in the conditions of high quality and performance standards.

Though less evolved than the postal and courier services market within developed countries, the Romanian market of postal and courier services witnessed an extremely strong evolution during the last ten years. The economic growth and Romania's integration to the European Union are two factors which positively influenced this sector's continuous development. Companies offering private postal and courier services have to be characterised through safety, innovation, flexibility, benefits for client. The postal and courier services market is permanently connected to the other sectors of the economy, being extremely sensitive to changes undergone within these sectors and at the level of the national economy.

The present paper aims at analysing the manner in which the evolutions of certain factors, such as the growth of IT and electronic commerce sector and the economic growth, influence the market of postal and courier services--the aggregate volume of mailing and the work force in this sector respectively.

Consequently, in order to quantify the objective of our research we built the following theory, subject to validation through the present research: There is a strong correlation between the evolution of postal and courier services market and the evolution of other interdependent sectors and the evolution of the national economy. In order to validate this theory, our scientific approach is guided by the following research questions:

1. In what extent is the evolution of postal and courier services market influenced by the evolution of other sectors of activity and the evolution of the national economy?

2. In what extent is the number of employees in the postal and courier services sector influenced by external factors such as the total volume of mailings?

Dependent variable

We have searched for a dependent variable capable of representing the evolution of the postal and courier services market within the private sector as well as possible. This variable is measured through the total number of private sector mailing indicator measured in the 2004-2010 period.

One can notice that the total number of mailing through private postal and courier services operators has had an oscilating evolution until 2008; after this point, during 2008-2010, the number grew although the economic crisis was strongly experienced in this domain. 2008 was marked by changes in this field, companies with a high market share either experienced bankruptcy or were acquired by other companies. Although during 2008-2010 the number of mailing through courier operators increased, the total number of postal mailing (both public and private) in this field decreased reaching 412 million mailings in 2010, 10.4% lower than the level of 2009.

Independent variables

We have considered the following independent variables: the growth of the IT sector, the population's purchasing power and the evolution of the national economy. The first independent variable, the growth of the IT sector, was selected because in the last years both at international level and in Romania, the growth of the postal and courier services sector was based in a huge extent on the development of the IT, the increase in the electronic commerce, a niche segment on which many postal and courier companies oriented.

One can notice the fact that in Romania the number of Internet users has increased constantly, reaching to 8,578,484 users in 2010, approximately 40 users to 100 inhabitants compared to the European Union mean which indicates that from 100 inhabitants approximately 71 of them use the Internet.

Also, the number of electronic commerce stores has witnessed an increase during 2004-2008 reaching to 2410 electronic commerce stores in December 2008, according to Trafic.ro. Over 80% from the online stores products distribution is made through private postal and courier services companies.

We can now launch our first research hypothesis:

Hypothesis 1: There is a strong association between the Exista o corela * ie intre numarul utilizatorilor de internet, a magazinelor de comer- electronic si traficul de expedi-ii postale in sectorul privat.

The second independent variable--the population's purchasing power measured through the Gross Domestic Product per capita indicator, was selected in order to analysed the manner in which the change in the purchasing power influences the volume of the postal and courier services sector.

Hypothesis 2: There is a strong correlation between the population's purchasing power and the evolution of the private postal and courier services market.

The third independent variable, measured through the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicator--the main indicator used to measure the national economic situation, was selected in order to highlight the economic situation 2004-2010. Between 2004 and 2008 the GDP increased constantly reaching in 2008 to $200 billions. 2009-2010 were marked by a strong economic recession, the GDP decreasing to $161 billions, the most severily affected domains being commerce, constructions, auto repairs, transports, telecommunications, hotels and restaurants which contributed with 31% to the GDP formation.

Following the illustration of the fourth indicator used in our research we can now launch the third research hypothesis which claims that:

Hypothesis 3: One can identify a strong association between the national economic situation and the private postal services evolution.

Interpreting the results

In order to validate the three hypotheses we have previously launched we will present the variables and indicators used, as well as the descriptive statistics (minimum, maximum, mean and standard deviation).

Regression analysis

Table 3 contains the matrix of correlations among all the research variables. We have to note that the values of Pearson's coefficient of correlation are very high, indicating a strong positive correlation among all the variables.

Table 4 presents the results of the multiple regression analysis; we have represented in the table the value of the multiple coefficient, the value of the determining coefficient, the adjusted value of the determining coefficient and the number of cases. One can easily notice that the variance of the private postal sector evolution dependent variable are explained in a proportion of 78% by the other research variables employed in the study, thus indicating that there is a strong association between the dependent variable and the independent variables.

In order to solve the second question of our study--In what extent is the number of employees in the postal and courier services sector influenced by external factors such as the total volume of mailing?--we have analysed the situation of human resources from the private sector postal and courier services companies.

Following the analysis of the Pearson coefficient of correlation we must note that there is a strong positive correlation between the number of employees in the private sector postal and courier services companies variable and the independent variable number of mailings in this sector.

[FIGURE 7 OMITTED]

Conclusions

In conclusion, one can assume that through empirical research and through the establishment of this model of analysis we have succeeded in validating our theory which claimed the existence of relations and influences of other activity domains over the postal and courier services sector. We consider, though, extremely necessary to continue the research in this direction.

The postal and courier services sector has not benefited from studies and complex researches. This inconvenience exists partially because of its recent date appearance which did not allow the study of the domain on a long period of time. Unfortunately, this is also one of the limitations of this study along with limitations due to changes in the Romanian legislation, changes in decisions to grant licenses for services' delivery, and changes in the manner of data collection and reporting, as well as Romania's integration to the European Union.

References:

CRIVEANU, Ion, Managementul Serviciilor, Editura Sitech, Craiova, 2007

MILITARU, Gheorghe, Managementul serviciilor, Editura C.H. Beck, Bucuresti, 2010

NISTORESCU, Tudor, Catalina SITNIKOV, Management Strategic, Editura Sitech, Craiova, 2003

KASPER, Hans, Piet Van HELSDINGEN, Mark GABBOTT, Services Marketing Management. A Strategic Perspective, second edition, John Wiley & Sons, LTD, West Sussex, 2006

ANCOM, Raport anual privind piata serviciilor postale, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, http://www.ancom.org.ro/uploads/links_files/Document_Strategie.pdf

Silviu Dorin Georgescu

University of Craiova

Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Email: g_silviu2000@yahoo.com

Notes:

(1) Ion Criveanu, Managementul Serviciilor, Editura Sitech, Craiova, 2007, p. 21.

(2) Gheorghe Militaru, Managementul serviciilor, Editura C.H.Beck, Bucuresti, 2010, p.17.

(3) Tudor Nistorescu, Catalina Sitnikov, Management Strategic, Editura Sitech, Craiova, 2003, p. 14.

(4) For details we recommend Hans Kasper, Piet Van Helsdingen, Mark Gabbott, Services Marketing Management. A Strategic Perspective, second edition, John Wiley & Sons, LTD, West Sussex, 2006, pp. 292-293.

Table 1. Indicators used in the research

Indicators    Number of     Number of   GDP per         GDP
Years         mailing in    IT users    capita       (current
               private                   (US$)         US$)
                sector

2004         28,872,028 *   3,276,790    3,481    75,489,440,362
2005         33,921,776     4,680,926    4,572    98,913,392,472
2006         29,881,843     5,352,496    5,681    122,641,508,768
2007         71,275,421     6,125,503    7,856    169,282,491,900
2008         52,921,364     6,999,330    9,300    200,071,062,765
2009         68,529,578     7,882,622    7,500    161,110,320,401
2010         83,556,004     8,578,484    7,538    161,623,662,681

Source: ANCOM (National Authority for Management and Regulation in
Communication), World DataBank, http://databank.worldbank.org/
Data/Home.aspx

* Estimated calculation due to legislative changes and differences
in data collection

Table 2. Descriptive statistics

Variable          Indicator                   Min               Max

Private           Number of            28,872,028        83,556,004
postal           mailing in
service            private
evolution          sector

Growth of         Number of             3,276,790         8,578,484
IT&C sector       IT users

Population         GDP per                  3,481             9,300
purchasing         capita
power

Evolution of         GDP           75,489,440,362    200,071,062,765
national
economy

Variable                Media                S.D.

Private         46,119,752.68       22,318,996.11
postal
service
evolution

Growth of           6,125,503           1,855,964
IT&C sector

Population              7,500            2050.704
purchasing
power

Evolution of   161,110,320,401   43,814,668,658.82
national
economy

Table 3. Matrix of correlations among variables

                Private      Growth of    Population    Evolution of
                postal      IT&C sector   purchasing      national
                service                      power        economy
               evolution

Private          1,00       0.870449645   0.730075438   0.726612196
postal
service
evolution

Growth of     0.870449645      1,00       0.821829119   0.818074947
IT&C sector

Population    0.730075438   0.821829119      1,00       0.999975666
purchasing
power

Evolution     0.726612196   0.818074947   0.999975666       1,00
of national
economy

Table 4. Multiple regression output

Regression statistics

Multiple R          0.881993504
R Square            0.777912542
Adjusted R Square   0.555825084
Observations                 7

Figure 1. Mailing dynamics by private
sector postal operators 2004-2010

2004    28,872,028
2005    33,921,776
2006    29,881,843
2007    71,275,421
2008    52,921,364
2009    68,529,578
2010    83,556,004

Source: Author's own analysis and illustration based on data
gathered from the ANCOM (National Authority for Management
and Regulation in Communication) Reports 2005, 2006, 2007,
2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Figure 2. IT Users during 2004-2010

2004     3,276,790
2005     4,680,926
2006     5,352,496
2007     6,125,503
2008     6,999,330
2009     7,882,622
2010     8,578,484

Source: Author's illustration, World DataBank,
http://daatabank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx

Note: Table made from line graph.

Figure 3. Evolution of number
of online stores

2004     197
2005     372
2006     745
2007    1359
2008    2410
2009    2294
2010    2178

Source: Author's own analysis based on data gathered by trafic.ro

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Figure 4. Gross Domestic Product per capita

2004     3,481
2005     4,572
2006     5,681
2007     7,856
2008     9,300
2009     7,500
2010     7,538

Source: Author's illustration, World DataBank

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Figure 5. Gross Domestic Product
Source: Author's illustration,
World DataBank

GDP

2004   75,489,4
2005   98,913,3
2006   122,641,
2007   169,282,
2008   200,071,
2009   161,110,
2010   161,623,

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Figure 6. Evolution of number of employees in the private
sector postal and courier services companies 2004-2010

2004     4730
2005     6835
2006     8364
2007     8896
2008    11578
2009     8478
2010    10662

Source: Author's own analysis based on data gathered from
the ANCOM Reports 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.

Note: Table made from line graph.