Poland, a regional power through the European Union. A new direction of its foreign policy.
Mitrache, Marius-Mircea
In the wake of the Polish Presidency of the EU, that was set to
start from July 1st 2011, and shortly after a G8 summit in France,
Poland hosted an Eastern and Central European Summit in Warsaw, May 27th
and 28th, having as a special guest President Obama himself. This latest
Polish summit, the last major event preceding the EU Presidency taken
over in July, was one of the latest examples of the high-esteem and
influence that Poland has enjoyed lately among its European neighbours
and American allies. It marked the height of a long and arduous process
that changed Poland's image of a Eurosceptic, conservative,
dispute-prone country, incapable of finding a suitable place in an
ever-changing world.
Actually, in 2007 the coming to power of the pro-European,
pragmatic and liberal right-wing party, the Civic Platform, led by the
charismatic and capable Donald Tusk, set a new course for Poland's
foreign policy, that struggled to change the previous image the country
had, and the strained diplomatic relations with several major players,
i.e. Germany and Russia. Nevertheless, more troubling was the attitude
Poland had towards the EU, which gave the feeling that Poland, alongside
the Czech Republic, was among the most Eurosceptic members of the Union.
Following a non-pugnacious approach by Warsaw, due to combined efforts
of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and highly popular Foreign
Minister Radoslav Sikorski, Poland started to be taken more seriously.
What is essential is the fact that a major shift on how the foreign
policy should be carried out took place, a shift from a Romantic view,
that claimed Poland to be the "Christ of Nations" always
betrayed by the Westerners and Russians, to a much more pragmatic one.
If the previous Kaczynski government over-emphasized the connection with
the United States, Donald Tusk operated a much-needed rapprochement
towards European capitals, especially Berlin. The fact that actual
benefits from this special relationship with Washington did not pay off
amounted for a lot of disenchantment.
Among the causes of this disenchantment we can identify the
difficult and almost failed missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, that did
not bring help in modernization of neither the Polish army, nor its
economy, the decision to withdraw the missile shield, once proposed by
the US, and probably the most painful disillusion of them all, the tough
visa regime still imposed on Warsaw. The first fruits of this pragmatism
showed up when German foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, made his
first official visit to Poland, and what's more important, he
joined his counterpart Sikorski, into pressuring Belarussian president
Lukashenko not to use force against those taking part in manifestations
during the presidential elections in December 2010. Unfortunately, their
efforts were in vain, but it made an encouraging precedent of
Polish-German cooperation, that resonated very well in other European
capitals (1). As Martin Krasuski points out in a paper for the Casimir
Pulaski Foundation, even Moscow can benefit from the new change of tone
coming from Warsaw. The Russian Federation knows that better relations
with the EU are almost impossible without developing normal relations
with Poland. If Moscow wanted to get the much needed and desired World
Trade Organisation membership, it would require all the support it could
get. Krasuski illustrates this interdependency between the two countries
with the visit of Russian president Dimitri Medvedev to Warsaw, the
first of its kind in 10 years, albeit a diplomatically but still
meaningful one. For instance, there were discussions on radio spectrum
coordination and navigation on the Vistula Lagoon, which represented
small but sensitive matters for both sides.
Krasuski ends his plea for a pragmatic shift in Poland's
foreign policy by mentioning the country's deficient presence in
Brussels, and insisting on a more active presence in all European
institutions. He recommends that Poland should emphasize support
mechanisms for Central and Eastern European countries, thus enabling
Warsaw to work alongside its neighbours. For him the ultimate risk is
that if Poland isolates itself from the world, and refuses to carry a
more pragmatic foreign policy from a bridge between West and East,
Poland could quickly become a no man's land of Eastern Europe and a
first class troublemaker. If Poland chooses to ignore pragmaticism over
romanticism, it would be at its own peril (2).
Economic means to diplomatic ends
Of course, the willingness of Prime-Minister Donald Tusk to offer a
position for Poland on the European and international stage requires
much more than wishing and rhetoric, as fine as they might be. The truth
is that the healthy shape of its economy and finances allowed Warsaw to
be more at ease during an extremely difficult time for all countries.
The recession that started in 2008, has watched countries like the
United States, or other European ones like the United Kingdom, France or
Germany to bail out their failed banks that prompted other financial and
economic troubles for them and the world. Unlike other countries that
saw their economies crashed, Poland actually enjoyed an economic growth.
In 2007 it had an amazing 6,8% growth, and in the following years, more
reasonable but still impressive figures like 1,7% in 2009 and 2,5-3% in
2010, becoming thus Europe's sixth economy without the housing
bubble that allowed other Eastern European states to enjoy a financial
yet--unsustainable boom. First of all, Poland was the biggest
beneficiary of European funds for the 2007-2013 period, with 63,8
billion Euros co-financed from 100 billion Euros. How the crisis was
caused by the fall of the private sector demand, the public sector could
cushion the blow. Secondly, Poland, unlike her Baltic neighbours, never
entered in a foreign currency credit bubble (like the euro or the Swiss
franc) which would have been a tragedy considering the Zloty
depreciation. Actually, since Poland proved so well, the depreciation of
the national currency helped a lot the Polish economy, easing the
pressure that other countries faced. Thirdly, the internal market was
much larger and diversified than that of the other neighbouring
countries (3).
As French journalist Florence Beauge states in an article for Le
Monde "With its 38 million inhabitants, Poland has indeed a large
domestic market. Less open than its neighbors, less dependent on
exports, with a strong diversified economy, it has not experienced the
dramatic slowdown in world trade. Take for instance the case of the
Golden Terraces, a gigantic shopping mall opened in 2007 behind the
Warsaw Central Railway Station, jostling seven days a week, 250 stores
of western brands on five levels. "Here, a crisis is not seen as
inevitable. People remember the time when they had nothing and know how
to restrict. As soon as we entered the financial crisis, the issue of
wages, which was the agenda, was put under a bushel by the unions.
Difficult to imagine a different attitude in France, "said Francois
Colombia, president of Auchan in Poland and Russia (4)."
The fact that it was not so dependent on import and foreign direct
investments (only 7 % against 38% of GDP like the Czech Republic) helped
Warsaw to avoid the fate of other countries like Spain, Ireland, Latvia
or Bulgaria that tied their fortunes on the development of one sector,
either construction or finance. Poland never had to bailout its banks,
since this particular sector was never involved in the speculative
schemes that crashed its Western counterparts. It had a solid
bookkeeping, never spending more than it gained, like Hungary or, more
infamously, Greece.
Moreover, more importantly, Poland has always had an impressive
solid entrepreneurship tissue, because of the entrepreneurship and
combative spirit that always hallmarked the Polish people. Through its
exports and internal demand, Poland managed to survive one of the
toughest financial crises since World War II.
Finally, in 2009, Poland demanded and got from the IMF a special
Flexible Credit Line (FCL) offered only to economic stable countries,
without any what so ever of the hard-liner, austerity measures countries
like Greece or Ireland had to endure. This was mostly a PR stunt
designed to promote the stability and the healthiness of its economy and
financial system. The goal for Poland was to set itself apart from the
same-perceived region of Eastern Europe, offering to the investors the
message that this country is not like Romania, Latvia, Estonia or many
others (5).
Fewer fences make good neighbours
This unique position, as one of the few countries in the world to
experience growth during the recession, further strengthened
Poland's position in the EU both economically and politically. A
healthy economy ensured the means to promote its foreign policy goals.
And one of the most important and crucial of these is the Eastern Policy
(Polska polityka wschodnia) that she has pursued ever since 1998 from
the beginning of the negotiations for EU accession. Its aim was to
transform Poland into a West-East bridge, as it was stated in the
National Integration Strategy developed by Polish European Integration
Committee created in 1996. The very foundation of Poland's Eastern
Policy lays it the so-called ULB doctrine, written by Jerzy Giedroyc and
Juliusz Mieroszewski 60 years ago, and published in "Kultura"
magazine in Paris, a Polish-based emigre-journal. First thought and
published in the days of the Cold War and of the Iron Curtain, and
getting its name from the Ukraino-Lithuano-Belarussian trio, this
doctrine stated the necessity of recognition of captive nations in
Eastern Europe, the acceptance of pre-Yalta borderlines, reconciliation
between these nations, and, more importantly, reconciliation and
normalization of relations with Russia6. After the fall of the
communism, the first non-communist Polish foreign minister, Krzysztof
Skubiszewski, stated that one of Poland's major priorities was to
sustain democracy in Ukraine, and Belarus, and to have good diplomatic
and economic relations with Lithuania and, especially with Russia.
Although over the years, this course was not always followed, a trend
existed and today Poland is pursuing more or less these goals set back
in the early '90s. Among these countries, Ukraine was always the
privileged one in terms of attention.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, Skubiszewski pleaded for an
active Oriental foreign policy in front of the Sejm, claiming that the
promotion of political liberalism and democracy was in the best interest
of the Polish minorities living in these countries. Historian Timothy
Snyder points out that the good relations between Poland and the newly
created state of Ukraine settled the dispute of their new common border.
Starting from this point onwards, Poland could have concentrated its
energy on settling the German-Polish border, whose status was uncertain
especially after the German reunification. (7)
As for Lithuania, a country who has a significant Polish minority,
and between whom bilateral relations have been more difficult, Poland
always portrayed itself as a vocal advocate for European integration.
Although Poland was at the beginning part of the so-called Luxembourg
Group that consists of countries who received green light with respect
to EU from early 1998, it constantly expressed support for the Helsinki
Group that started negotiation from 2000, Lithuania being one of its
members. (8)
In 1998, Bronislaw Geremek, liberal foreign minister at the time,
made an appeal to an "Eastern dimension" of the EU, and in
2003, Cimoszewicz, the socialist foreign minister stated that "...
EU [Eastern Policy] should be flexible enough to enable the individual
development of relations with each of the countries concerned without
prejudicing their final formula". Poland wished to develop a policy
plan towards this region, based on the successful Northern Dimension,
and drawing lessons from the Spanish experience in promoting the
Mediterranean policy (9). However, the results at the time were a
failure, especially because of Western European countries'
unwillingness to offer more to states like Ukraine, than they have
already done through the European Neighborhood Policy. Furthermore,
there were some fears that Poland's insistent lobby on more
opportunities and incentives so that these countries could eventually
join the EU was part of an American scenario to weaken the Union. In
2001, French President Jacques Chirac went as far as calling Poland
"the American Trojan Horse." (10) However, in the wake of
Poland's accession to the EU in 2004, foreign minister Anna Fotyga
insisted that "the support for the pro-EU direction of Ukraine
should be one of the Union's priorities."
Poland had to wait until 2008, when a successful Polish-Swedish
joint-initiative, well received by the European Commission, for
strategic and security reasons, brought together countries both for and
against further enlargement. As Anna Pomorska writes, "The
initiative was mainly 'cooked' in the two capitals, lobbied
from there and benefited from a personal engagement of the two member
states' foreign ministers. Such a partnership, according to the
proposal, should be based on the ENP, but also on the principle of
differentiation." (11)
As early as 2006 the Polish foreign minister Stefan Meller stated
in his address to the Sejm that: "We will seek to ensure that the
emerging Eastern Dimension of the Union's Neighborhood Policy draws
the countries involved closer to the Union. At the same time, they
should not be doomed to the role of 'eternal partners'. At
least some of them--the ones with a pro-European orientation and
advanced internal transformations--should be given the prospect of
membership, however distant it may be." (12)
Eventually the Russian-Georgian conflict and the energetic dispute
between Russian and Ukraine made it clear that the EU must have some
sort of common policy concerning its Eastern neighbors. This initiative,
called "The Eastern Partnership" is addressed to Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldavia, and Ukraine, and, as stated by
the European Commission, its goal is to reach further than the ENP. This
is done through the so-called Association Accords (AA) that is the legal
bound of the EU with these states, the Action Plans, which contain the
reforms that are going to be made, the development of a gradual
free-market zone, and a more coherent energy policy towards Russia (13).
Nevertheless, perhaps the most important feature brought by the
success of the Eastern Partnership, was for Poland the understanding
that only through the European Union, and by following its rules, can it
impose its views and achieve its goal, forging productive alliances, and
gaining respect.
From today's point of view, the Eastern Partnership draws
praises and encouragements from Western leaders. In an interview for The
Economist on September 30 2011, following a related summit in Warsaw,
British deputy prime minister Nick Clegg said : "It's not a
permanent waiting area where excuses are found in order to maintain the
divide between the current European Union and the countries that want to
join. It is a platform. It should be regarded as a way in which we can
make the relationship between the EU and Ukraine, Moldova, Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia and so on closer and closer. That then helps those
countries to prepare themselves for EU membership. At the same time, it
allows us to send, as the EU, a clear and unambiguous signal when we
think political and economic reforms are not proceeding in the right
direction. Clearly, the most notorious example of that is Belarus, where
President [Alyaksandr] Lukashenko is behaving like a sort of medieval
despot. He has no role at all in 21st-century Europe." Asked if he
envisages members of the Eastern Partnership ever joining the EU, he
answered: "Yes, absolutely. If the conditions are met--and I think
we have to be very rigorous about them: political reform, administrative
reform, rule of law, market economy--it's crucial that we continue
to open our doors." (14)
An increasingly vocal advocate of the region
In recent months, Poland has become more and more a vocal advocate
of countries like Moldova and Ukraine, by supporting their efforts
towards a democratization, the rule of law, and getting the free-market
economy status, all equally related to the Copenhagen Criteria, which a
country needs to fulfill before starting accession negotiations with the
EU. Concerning Central Europe, it is true that for a while Poland's
interest were not focused in this region. Despite all that, Poland was a
founding member of the so-called Visegrad Group (V4) that regrouped it
with countries like Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia. However, one
of the most important announcements of early 2011 was Poland's seek
to militarize the V4 with its own battle group. Surely the
Russian-Georgian conflict had its weight, as the energy related quarrels
between Kiev and Moscow, but truth be told, a change became more and
more needed ever since NATO's New Strategic Concept that was
adopted in late 2010. Through it, NATO, and the United States are
starting to view Russia, more as an ally, than a rival or, even worse,
an adversary (15).
On the contrary, the Obama administration actively sought
Russia's support on various hot-topic issues, like Iran and North
Korea. Consequently, the US ceased to be a guarantee of Central
Europe's security, and for several politicians and analysts a
militarized Visegrad Group became a necessity (16). Despite the
freshness of the proposal, the militarization of Central Europe is not a
new idea. As Richard Cashman, from the Henry Jackson Society proves it,
the interwar Polish leader Josef Pilsudski entertained the idea of a
militarized bloc called Intermarum, a bloc of countries between the
Black Sea and the Baltic Sea (thus the Latin name Marum) to counter the
growing threat of Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany (17).
In the present-day case, a militarized V4 Group with Poland as
leader makes sense, especially since its model is the Nordic EU
Battleground Group, that helped regional cooperation between Scandinavia
and the Baltics. For the Visegrad Group it was feared that not all
EU's countries (especially Western ones) perceive Russia as a
threat combined with NATO's new and ambiguous Strategy Concept,
that made these decisions to be taken.
A STRATFOR analysis points out that Poland became the inevitable
leader of this group because it took the rotating presidency of the EU
in July 2011, and because Poland has the best military ties with the
United States of all other countries. News of this project has not gone
too well with Moscow. On May 12, 2011 the Russian Prime Minister made a
visit to Bratislava, officially to attend his country's performance
to the ice-hockey world championship, but more likely to discuss with
his Slovakian counterpart the growing issue of a militarized Visegrad
Group (18).
The interest of Poland in Central Europe is part of a much bigger,
newer foreign policy axis, a North-South one. If Warsaw always saw
itself as a bridge between East and West, this time the advantages of
North-South axis have started to be taken more and more seriously. In
the North, Poland's oldest and historical ally has been Sweden.
Even stronger diplomatic ties have covered tight banking and financial
connections with the Swedes. Actually, Sweden was always some sort of a
role model for Poland, who found support in its Nordic ally in its
successful Eastern Partnership initiative, and an example both for the
Visegrad battleground it seeks to create and the EU rotating presidency
set to begin in July 2011. As for the South, Poland begins to take
interest in areas long ago neglected like the Black Sea and the Western
Balkans (19). Concerning the Black Sea region, as it is stated in a
report for the Polish think-tank, DemosEuropa, Frank Umbach explained
that this region is vital for the Great Energy Game of Eurasia
:"Given the scarcity of conventional oil and gas resources in the
world, its growing concentration in ever less and equally more unstable
countries and the projected rapid rise of global oil and gas demand,
Central Asia and the Caspian region (CACR) with its proven oil and gas
resources can contribute to ensuring global energy security by
increasing the diversity of oil and gas supplies through the Black Sea
region as a strategically important transit route. However, Russia,
China, the EU and the region states have very different strategic
interest and agendas, which complicate or even hindering regional wide
cooperation." (20)
Finally, Poland wants to build enduring liberal free-market
democracy with the rule of law, but not only through official channels,
but also through NGOs and Civil society actors heavily involved in the
democratization process. In another report from the same think-tank,
Tija Memisevic and Ivan Vejvoda say that "both Poland and Czech
Republic can provide assistance and partnership to countries of the
Western Balkans in particular fields such as agriculture, financial
system reforms, preparation of strategies and projects in order to
receive EU funding. They can warn against mistakes they made and provide
ideas for practical solutions and reforms. Experiences from new EU
member states, gathered recently and where many countries had to start
building up institutions and developing policies from the scratch, are
invaluable to Western Balkan countries." (21) Surely, Poland will
not miss this excellent opportunity to prove itself and the world that
it can act as a responsible role model and can offer assistance for
willing countries like those in the Western Balkans.
With regards of Poland's ambition as a regional power probably
nobody said it better than the current Foreign Minister, the acclaimed
Radek Sikorski, in his early March address to the Sejm : "The
mission of the Foreign Ministry, as drafted in a statement by its staff,
"is to pursue the interests of the Republic of Poland through
European and global cooperation for security, democracy and
development." It is also expressed, more briefly, by our motto:
"Serving Poland, building Europe, understanding the world."
Let us bear in mind that Solidarity succeeded because its leaders
deliberately acted in line with the motto of the Hanseatic city of
Gdansk: "Nec temere, nec timide"--neither rashly, nor
timidly." (22)
Bibliography:
1. Beauge, Florence, (2010), "Dans une Europe en crise, la
Pologne fait figure d'exception", Le Monde,
[http://vivrelinternational.blogspot.com/2010/03/dans-une-europe
-encrise-la-pologne.html] 29 May 2011
2. Bialozyt, Wojciech, (2011), "The North-South Line and
orientation of Polish foreign policy", Liberte,
[http://liberteworld.com/2011/
02/15/thenorth-south-line-and-orientation-of-polish- foreign-policy/] 01
June 2011
3. Cashman, Richard, (2011), "Visegrad Battlegroup May Be Step
Closer To Pilsudski And Mackinder's Vision--Analysis",
Eurasiareview, [http://www.eurasiareview.com/15082011-visegrad-battlegroup-may -bestep-closer-to-pilsudski-and-mackinders-vision- analysis/] 01
September 2011
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[http://www.euractiv.com/global-europe/militarised-visegrad-group
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5. Krasuski, Martin, (2011), "A call for pragmatism of the
Polish foreign policiy", Nouvelle Europe,
[http://drupal.nouvelle-europe.com/en/node/1020] 28 May 2011
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8. Memisevic Tija, Vejvoda Ivan, (2011), "On the Road to
Stability: The Western Balkans Future in the EU", in Balcer, Adam
(ed.) Poland and the Czech Republic: Advocates of the EU Enlargement?,
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Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus, 1569-1999, New Haven & London: Yale
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[http://www.eucers.eu/wp-content/uploads/BSR
ES-Cooperation-Demos-2011.pdf] 01 June 2011
* This work was possible with the financial support of the Sectoral
Operational Programme for Human Resources Development 2007-2013,
co-financed by the European Social Fund, under the project number
POSDRU/107/1.5/S/76841 with the title "Modern Doctoral Studies:
Internationalization and Interdisciplinarity".
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retrieved 28 May 2011.
(3) Zbigniew Truchlewski, "L'economie polonaise, premiere
de la classe europeenne?", Nouvelle Europe, 3 April 2010,
[http://www.nouvelle-europe.eu/ node/834], retrieved 28 May 2011.
(4) Florence Beauge, "Dans une Europe en crise, la Pologne
fait figure d'exception", Le Monde, 10 March 2010
[http://vivrelinternational.blogspot.com/2010/03/
dans-une-europe-en-crise-lapologne.html], retrieved 29 May 2011.
(5) Zbigniew Truchlewski, "L'economie polonaise, premiere
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[http://www.nouvelle-europe.eu/ node/834], retrieved 29 May 2011.
(6) Timothy Snyder, The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine,
Lithuania, Belarus, 1569-1999, New Haven & London: Yale University
Press, 2004, pp. 221-223.
(7) Ibidem, pp. 234-235.
(8) Sarah Struk, "La diplomatie polonaise : de la doctrine
"ULB" au Partenariat Oriental", Nouvelle Europe, 23
August 2010, [http://www.nouvelle-europe.eu/ node/916], retrieved 01
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(9) Ibidem, [http://www.nouvelle-europe.eu/node/916], retrieved 01
June 2011.
(10) Anna Pomorska, "Are we there yet? From adaptation to
Europeanisation of Polish foreign policy", 3-5 March 2011, Paper
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[http://euce.org/eusa/2011/papers/7j_pomorska.pdf], retrieved 01 June
2011.
(11) Ibidem, p. 7.
(12) Stefan Meller, Minister's Annual Address 2006, Ministry
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[http://www.msz.gov.pl/Ministers,Annual,Address,2131.html], retrieved 01
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(14) "An interview with Nick Clegg", 30 September, The
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britain-and-europe], retrieved 01 June 2011
(15) "A militarised Visegrad Group ?", Euractiv, 13 May
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(16) Blazej Lenkowski, "Polish foreign policy to be
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[http://liberteworld.com/2011/03/18/polish-foreign-policy-to-be-reviewed/], retrieved 01 June 2011
(17) Richard Cashman, "Visegrad Battlegroup May Be Step Closer
To Pilsudski And Mackinder's Vision--Analysis", Eurasiareview,
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retrieved 25 August 2011.
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(19) Wojciech Bialozyt, "The North-South Line and orientation
of Polish foreign policy", Liberte, 15 February 2011,
[http://liberteworld.com/2011/02
/15/the-north-south-line-andorientation-of-polish-foreign- policy/],
retrieved 01 June 2011.
(20) Frank Umbach, "The Black Sea Region and the Great Energy
Game in Eurasia", in Adam Balcer (ed.), The Eastern Partnership in
the Black Sea Region: towards a New Synergy, Warsaw: DemosEuropa Center
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[http://www.eucers.eu/wpcontent/uploads/BSR-ES-Cooperation-
Demos-2011.pdf], retrieved 01 June 2011.
(21) Tija Memisevic, Ivan Vejvoda, "On the Road to Stability:
The Western Balkans Future in the EU", in Adam Balcer (ed.) Poland
and the Czech Republic: Advocates of the EU Enlargement?, Warsaw:
DemosEuropa Center for European Strategy, 2011, p. 96.
[http://www.demosservices.home.pl/www/files/raport_demos
_grudz2010_uk_v08_www.p df], retrieved 01 June 2011.
(22) Radek Sikorski, Minister's Annual Address 2011, Ministry
of Foreign Affairs of Republic of Poland,
[http://www.msz.gov.pl/files/docs/komunikaty/20110316EXPOSE/
expose_2011_en.pdf], retrieved 01 June 2011.
Marius-Mircea Mitrache **
** Marius Mitrache is PhD candidate at Babes-Bolyai University,
Faculty of European Studies. Contact: marius_mitrache@yahoo.com