Performance evaluation of mutual funds in Pakistan.
Shah, S.M. Aamir ; Hijazi, Syed Tahir
INTRODUCTION
In Pakistan Mutual Funds were introduced in 1962, when the public
offering of National Investment (Unit) Trust (NIT) was introduced which
is an open-end mutual fund. In 1966 another fund that is Investment
Corporation of Pakistan (ICP) was establishment. ICP subsequently
offered a series of closed-end mutual funds. Up to early 1990s, twenty
six (26) closed-end ICP mutual funds had been floated by Investment
Corporation of Pakistan. After considering the option of restructuring
the corporation, government decided to wind up ICP in June, 2000. In
2002, the Government started Privatisation of the Investment Corporation
of Pakistan. 25 Out of 26 closed-end funds of ICP were split into two
lots. There had been a competitive bidding for the privatisation of
funds. Management Right of Lot-A comprising 12 funds was acquired by
ABAMCO Limited. Out of these 12, the first 9 funds were merged into a
single closed-end fund and that was named as ABAMCO Capital Fund, except
4th ICP mutual fund as the certificate holders of the 4th ICP fund had
not approved the scheme of arrangement of Amalgamation into ABAMCO
capital fund in their extra ordinary general meeting held on December
20, 2003. The fund has therefore been reorganised as a separate
closed-end trust and named as ABAMCO Growth Fund. Rest of the three
funds were merged into another single and named as ABAMCO Stock Market
Fund. So far as the Lot-B is concerned, it comprised of 13 ICP funds,
for all of these thirteen funds, the Management Right was acquired by
PICIC Asset Management Company Limited. All of these thirteen funds were
merged into a single closed-end fund which was named as "PICIC
Investment Fund". Later on the 26th fund of ICP (ICP-SEMF) was also
acquired by PICIC Asset Management Company Limited. The certificate
holders in extraordinary general meeting held on June 16, 2004 approved
the reorganisation of SEMF into a new closed-end scheme renamed as PICIC
Growth Fund. The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan subsequently authorised PGF on July 30, 2004.
Initially there was both public and private sector participation in
the management of these funds, but with the nationalisation in the
seventies, the government role become more dominant. Later, the
government also allowed the private sector to establish mutual funds.
Currently there exist Thirty-three funds by the end of Financial Year
2005. Twelve open-ended mutual funds are:
* public sector, 01;
* private sector, 11;
Twenty-one close-end mutual funds in Pakistan are:
* public sector, 0;
* private sector, 21.
Performance evaluation of mutual funds is important for the
investors and portfolio managers as well. Historical performance
evaluation provide an opportunity to the investors to assess the
performance of portfolio managers as to how much return has been
generated and what risk level has been assumed in generating such
returns. In this way the investors can also compare the performance of
fund managers.
On June 2004 the net asset value of close-end mutual funds was Rs
48 billion and open-end funds net asset value was Rs 63.86 billion.
Whereas on June 1997 the net asset value of closed-end mutual funds was
Rs 04 billion and open-end mutual funds net asset value was Rs 25
billion. Total net assets value in 1997 was Rs 29 billion and at the end
June 2004, raised to Rs 112 billion. There is a big increase of
investment (entrusted amount) in this sector since 1997 to 2004 which
necessitate the performance evaluation of funds free of manipulation.
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In the last few years mutual fund industry has shown significant
progress with reference to saving mobilisation and important part of the
overall financial markets. But still we are far behind the developed
countries mutual fund industry. Growth in mutual funds worldwide is
because of the overall growth in both the size and maturity of many
foreign capital markets. These nations have increasingly used debt and
equity securities rather than bank loans to finance economic expansion.
The Pakistan economy can prosper because of the benefits of new
investment opportunities arising from economic reform, privatisation,
lowered trade barriers and rapid economic growth.
Individuals throughout the world have the same basic needs that are
education fur their children, health, good living standard and
comfortable retirement. In our country where people are religious
minded, mostly they avoid bank schemes for investments, if they are
provided an investment opportunity which suits the religion, we can
mobilise savings from masses which may be laying an idle money at
present. By doing so we would be able to improve the living standard of
our countrymen through economic prosperity. This can be achieved through
the introduction of different species of mutual funds and their
performance. The success of this sector depends on the performance and
the role of regulatory bodies. Excellent performance and stringent
regulations will increase the popularity of mutual funds in Pakistan.
LITERATURE REVIEW
In Gruber (1996) in his article based on USA data claims that most
of the older studies are subject to survivorship bias. When this effect
is adjusted, is argued that mutual funds on average under-perform the
market proxy by the amount of expenses they charge the investors.
Otten and Bams (2002) Maastricht University, in 2002 carried a
research on European mutual funds. Results suggest that Europeans mutual
funds especially small capitalisation funds are able to add value. If
the management fee is added back, some exhibits significant out
performance. The author also pointed out that European mutual funds
industry is still lagging behind the US industry both in total assets
size and market capitalisation.
Malkiel and Radisich (2001) finds that index funds have regularly
produced rates of return exceeding those of active funds by 100 to 200
basis points per annum in the United States over the 1990s and find that
there are two reasons for the excess performance by passive funds:
management fee and trading costs.
Wermers (2000) carried out a research on mutual funds performance
in America and found that funds hold stocks that out perform by market
1.3 percent per year, but their net results under perform by one
percent. Out of this 1.6 percent is due to expense and transaction
costs.
Blake and Timmermann (1998) University of California, carried out a
research in 1998 on performance evaluation of UK mutual funds and found
that the average UK equity fund appears to under perform by around 1.8
percent per annum on a risk-adjusted basis. The authors says that there
is also some evidence of persistence of performance, on average, a
portfolio composed of the historically best-performing quartile of
mutual funds performs better in the subsequent period than a portfolio
composed of the historically worst-performing quartile of funds.
In 2002 Research conducted by Bauer, Koedijk, and Otten (2002)
using an international database containing German, UK and US ethical
funds remarked that the existing empirical evidence on US data suggests
that ethical screening leads to similar or slightly less performance
relative to comparable unrestricted portfolios. Evidence on the
performance of ethical mutual funds is mostly limited to the US and UK
markets. For UK market four influential papers appeared during the last
decade. The early studies compared ethical funds to market wide indices
like the FT all share index. Using this methodology Luther, Matatko and
Corner (1992) investigated the returns of 15 ethical unit trusts. Their
results provided some weak evidence that ethical funds tend to out
perform general market indices.
In 2004, Otten and Barns (2004) in article titled "How to
measure mutual fund performance: economic versus statistical
relevance" says that the majority of US studies conclude that
actively managed portfolios, on average, under perform market indices.
He quoted the examples of the studies conducted by Jensen (1968) and
Sharpe (1966). He argued mutual funds under perform the market by the
amount of expenses they charge the investors.
Gupta and Gupta (2001) in their studies on Indian mutual funds
industry investigated that on September 30, 1999 total assets under the
management of mutual fund industry stood at Rs 85,487 crore (Rs 850
billion). Further more that the mutual fund industry has four types of
players i.e. (1) UTI; (2) public sector banks; (3) insurance
corporations; and (4) private sector funds. These four types consist of
37 players, 11 are in the public sector including UTI, and the remaining
ones are the private sector. The UTI alone accounts for Rs 63, 113 crore
which is 74 percent of total assets of the industry. The share of other
public sector funds is Rs 8831 crore that is 10,2 percent of total funds
in the industry. The remaining resources of Rs 13, 543 crore that is
15.8 percent are available to the private sector funds. Total number of
schemes offered by all funds is 311 out of which 182 are closed-ended;
and 142 are open ended.
El-Khouri (1993) in his studies conducted on Risk-Return
Relationship based on Amman Stock Exchange data concluded that debt
equity ratio appears to be insignificantly correlated to required return
in all regression.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS
The Sample
After 2002, mutual fund industry in Pakistan has witnessed
significant changes and growth in terms of private sector participation,
divestment of public sector funds. At present we have 33 funds-21
closed-ends, out of which 09 are the infant commenced in between 2003
and 2004 some of which emerged due to divestment and then merger of ICP
funds while others are newly introduced. We have 12 open-end funds, out
of these funds 10 funds are infant, which introduced in between 2003 and
2004. As we are concerned with survivorship bias controlled data, ICP
funds which no more exist at the end of June 2004 and merged into other
funds are excluded from the research sample and other funds which have
life of two to three years have also been excluded from the evaluation.
Rests of 14 funds out of total 33 funds have lived a long life and still
operative which serve our research purpose.
Sources of Data
Annual reports of equity and balanced funds for the period from
1997 to 2004 have been used for data collection. For this purpose
different sources have been used; Asset Management Companies of the
funds, Stock exchanges, SECP and interact. Data for Treasury bills rate
was collected from Statistical Bulletins of State Bank of Pakistan.
Variables
Variables picked for the performance evaluation of mutual funds are
net income after taxes of funds, net asset value, number of
certificates/shares outstanding, earning per certificate and net asset
value per certificate/share, monthly returns of KSE 100 index. Six
months Treasury bill rates. Return of fund was calculated dividing
return per certificate by opening net asset value per certificate.
Return per certificate was calculated dividing fund income alter taxes
by total number of certificates outstanding for the year. Net asset
value per certificate was calculated by deducting total liabilities from
total assets of the year or by taking shareholders equity. Return of a
fund may also be calculated dividing net income after taxes of a fund by
opening net assets of the fund for that year.
Methodology and Empirical Results
There are four models which are used worldwide for the performance
evaluation of mutual funds (1) Sharpe Measure (2) Treynor Measure (3)
Jenson differential Measure (4) Fama French Measure. We have used first
three measures excluding Fama French Measure. The reason for not using
Fama French Model is that for this model we needed data on book to
market ratio for all companies listed at KSE from 1997 to 2004 which
could not be made available.
The Sharpe Model
In 1960 William F. Sharpe started to work on portfolio theory as
thesis project. He introduced the concept of risk free asset. Combing
the risk free asset with the Markowitz efficient portfolio he introduced
the capital market line as the efficient portfolio line.
The model given by Sharpe, (1) we can proceed further to use it for
the determination of expected rate of return for a risky asset, which
led to the development of CAPM capital asset pricing model. Through this
model an investor can know what should be the required rate of return
for a risky asset, The required rate of return has a great significance
for the valuation of securities, by discounting its cash flows with the
required rate of return.
In order to determine which portfolio offering the most favourable
risk/return trade-off, we compute the ratio of the historical returns in
excess of the risk-free rate to the standard deviation of the portfolio
returns. The portfolio offering the highest reward/risk ratio then is
the only risky portfolio in which investors will choose to invest. Using
average returns of the portfolio uses Sharpe ratio to measure ex-post
portfolio performance.
Sharpe introduced the following reward to variability ratio (known
as Sharpe ratio):
Sharpe Ratio = ([R.sub.p] - [R.sub.f])/[[delta].sub.p]
[R.sub.p] = the observed average fund return;
[R.sub.f] = the average risk tree return;
[[delta].sub.p] = the standard deviation of fund returns.
This model is used to measure the performance of a managed
portfolio in respect of return per unit of risk. This ratio also
measures the portfolio manager's ability on the basis of rate of
return performance and diversification by taking into account total risk
of the portfolio.
The study computes of the ratio of the historical returns, (ex-post
returns) in excess of the risk-free rate to the standard deviation of
the portfolio returns of the funds for the period from 1997 to 2004.
Weighted average of six months Treasury bills rate was used as a risk
free rate, Results show, (Table 1) that some of the funds have negative
sharpe ratio which indicate the managers inability in diversification
but on overall basis Sharpe ratio of funds is 0.47 (as compared to
market which is 0.27) risk premium of per one percent of standard
deviation which shows better performance as compared to market.
The Treynor Model
Treynor introduced two types of risks. One risk is called
Systematic risk which is associated with market and cannot be
diversified away. However, this type of risk can by calculated through
"beta". Treynor says that portfolio expected return depend on
its beta. The other type of risk which he separated from systematic risk
is unsystematic risk. Unsystematic risk is specific to a company. The
uncertainty attached with the specific company can be diversified away.
Treynor model is used to measure the performance of a managed
portfolio in respect of return per unit of risk (systemic risk). In this
way the mutual fund provides the highest return per unit of risk
(systemic risk) will be preferred as compared to the fund provides low
return per unit of risk. Treynor ratio uses Beta as a risk measure hence
considers the Systematic risk. This ratio also measures the portfolio
manager's ability on the basis of rate of return performance and
diversification by taking into account systemic risk of the portfolio.
This ratio measures the historical performance of managed portfolio in
terms of return per unit of risk (systemic risk).
Treynor Ratio = ([R.sub.p] - [R.sub.f])/[beta]
[R.sub.p] = the observed average fund return;
[R.sub.f] = the average risk free retum;
[beta] = coefficient as a measure of systematic risk.
Beta = [summation](rm-rf)*(ri-rf)-n* [summation] (rm-rf)/n*
[summation](ri-rf)/n/ [summation][(rm-rf).sup.2](ri-rf)-n*
[summation][(rm-rf)/2)).sup.2]
[r.sub.m] = market return
[r.sub.i] = portfolio return
[r.sub.f=] risk free return
n = number of observations.
Treynor Ratio indicate that the portfolio offering the highest
reward/risk (systemic risk) ratio will be the only risky portfolio in
which investors will choose to invest. The assumption is that the
portfolio manager has diversified away the diversifiable risk (unsystematic risk/company specific risk) and the matter of concern for
the investor should be the systematic risk (non-diversifiable/market
risk) only, instead of total risk. I computed the ratio of the
historical returns, in excess of the risk-free rate (T-Bill rate) to the
systemic risk of the portfolio returns of the Pakistani funds fur the
period from 1997 to 2004. Results show (Table 2) that all funds have
beta less than I, in some eases significantly less than I, regarding
systemic risk we can conclude that all mutual funds are defensive in
their movement of returns as compared to the market returns (KSE 100
index). Treynor ratio on overall basis/industry is 0.13 risk premium of
per one percent of systemic risk show reasonable risk premium per one
percent of systemic risk. If the diversifiable risk which is company
specific is fully diversified away by the funds portfolio manager, the
results of Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio are same. Our funds are facing
the diversification problem that is why the results of both ratios are
not the same.
Jensen Differential Measure
Jensen in 1969 introduced alpha ([alpha]) in the capital asset
pricing model to measure the abnormal return of a portfolio--that is
difference between the actual average return earned by a portfolio and
the return that should have been earned by the portfolio given the
market conditions and the risk of the portfolio.
Jensen measure is calculated as follows:
[R.sub.p] - [R.sub.f] = [[alpha].sub.p] + [[beta].sub.p][[R.sub.m]
- [R.sub.f]] + [[epsilon].sub.p]
[R.sub.p] = the observed returns of the portfolio;
[R.sub.f] = the risk free returns;
[R.sub.m] = the return on the market index; and
[[epsilon].sub.p] = the error term
[alpha] and [beta] = are the parameters of the model.
This measure has great appeal for practitioners as has been derived
from the capital market theory Jensen differential measure applied on
the data of mutual funds for the period from 1998 to 2004, the result
shows (Table 3) that although few funds show negative alpha but on
overall basis funds industry alpha is positive alpha of 6.03. Positive
alpha of the mutual funds is an indication that the funds outperform the
market proxy--KSE 100 index by 0.86 percent per annum.
Results of descriptive statistics Table 4, show that in the last
seven years from 1998 to 2004 mutual funds, on average earned return of
15 percent with the standard deviation of 13.8 percent, whereas market
return in this period was 19.5 percent with the standard deviation of
40.5 percent which indicates the controlled risk of funds. Therefore
Sharpe ratio of funds is 0.47 (as compared to market which is 0.27) risk
premium of per one percent of standard deviation which represents
reasonable risk premium. This investigation also proves funds better
performance to the market.
CONCLUSION
This paper provides an overview of the Pakistani mutual fund
industry and investigates the mutual funds risk adjusted performance
using mutual fund performance evaluation models. Survivorship bias
controlled data of equity and balanced funds is used for the performance
evaluation of funds. Mutual fund industry in Pakistan is still in
growing phase. Result shows that on overall basis, funds industry
outperform the market proxy by 0.86 percent. They are investing in the
market very defensively as evident from their beta. Mutual Fund
industry's Sharpe ratio is 0.47 as compared to market that is 0.27
risk premium per one percent of standard deviation. Results of Jensen
differential measure also show positive after cost alpha. Hence overall
results suggest that mutual funds in Pakistan are able to add value.
Where as results also show some of the funds under perform, these funds
are facing the diversification problem. Worldwide there had been a
tremendous growth in this industry; this growth in mutual funds
worldwide is because of the overall growth in both the size and maturity
of many foreign capital markets, we are far behind. The need of an hour
is to mobilise saving of the individual investors through the offering
of variety of funds (with different investment objectives). The funds
should also disclose the level of risk associated with return in their
annual reports for the information of investors and prospective
investors. This will enable the investors to compare the level of return
with the level of risk. The success of this sector depends on the
performance of funds industry and the role of regulatory bodies.
Excellent performance and stringent regulations will increase the
popularity of mutual funds in Pakistan.
Comments
The authors deserve appreciations for choosing this topic at a time
when the mutual funds are rapidly growing worldwide because of the
expansion of the growth and expansion in international capital markets.
The authors also deserve appreciation for exploring a research area
which can contribute towards an understanding how savings could be
mobilised through mutual funds in Pakistan. The historical performance
of mutual funds further highlights their importance as these funds have
shown tremendous increase during the past decade. I agree with the
authors that in our country, people avoid interest-based conventional
schemes of investment, if alternative schemes are provided which are
religiously permissible, this can certainly boost up savings in the
country and mutual funds can offer such opportunity.
With these appreciations, I would like to point out some areas
where authors can pay more attention while revising their paper for
final submission.
It is sometimes a matter of concern how different classes of
investors perceive the risk and return hence investors' perception
needs to be considered as essential ingredient of the rating process. A
study indicates two factors which may affect the perception of
investors' risk and their investment decision; (i) index-based
investment, and (ii) investors' perception of the market
capitalisation. According to PACRA's sources (newspapers of
September 1, 2004) 'Every mutual fund investor has a distinct set
of investment objectives and preferences. It is, therefore, difficult to
capture these preferences in a single yardstick for guiding investment
decisions'. Hence a new methodology has been pioneered by PACRA for
rating of mutual funds and asset managers in Pakistan. The first such
rating was carded out in 1999. This rating provides a measure of the
asset managers' capacity to master the risk inherent in asset
management. It covers the assessment of the quality of business
structure, independence, control and communication systems, investment
process and risk management. Since the paper is about Pakistan, it may
add to the value of paper if PACRA's methodology is included in the
review of literature and is also considered for analysis if feasible.
PACRA divides different funds into four groups:
Income Fund: a fund that primarily invests in debt securities
including money market instruments.
Equity Fund: a fund that primarily invests in equity securities.
Balanced Fund: a fund that carries a reasonable mix of equity and
debt securities.
Islamic Fund: a fund that invests in Shariah compliant instruments
only.
The evaluation by groups may provide absolute and risk adjusted
performance of fund and is comparable evaluation of whether the fund has
been managed by manager's skill or by market circumstances (see
http://www.pacra.com/for details about PACRA's detailed Asset
Manager Rating Methodology).
The paper applies three popular measures of performance such as
Jensen index, Treynor index and Sharpe index. It however, does not
explain why two other measures in addition to the above mentioned three
measures of performance have not been considered. These measures are
Sharpe Differential Return and Fama's Decomposition(2). There is a
need to consider the measure which may capture the effect of unexpected
events as 9/11 or recent earthquake.
Another point may be helpful for the authors that they have used
Tyenor measure in the analysis but the study has neither been referred
in the main text nor in references. Sharpe's and Jenson's
references are is also missing. Sharpe's story of noble prize also
seems redundant. It can be put in the footnote. The review of literature
may be made more consistent. It is also suggested that in the tables
given at the end, significance of parameters should be given for a
better understanding of the trends.
Nisar H. Hamdani
University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad.
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(1) In 1990, Sharpe's role in developing the CAPM was
recognised by the Nobel Prize committee. Sharpe shared the Nobel
Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences that year with Markowitz and Merton
Miller, the University of Chicago Economist.
S. M Aamir Shah is a PhD student at Mohammad Ali Jinnah University,
Islamabad and a Lecturer Anama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad. Syed
Tahir Hijazi is Dean, Faculty of Business Administration, Mohammad Ali
Jinnah University, Islamabad.
Table 1
Average
Return Standard Sharpe
Name of Fund 1997-2004 Deviation Ratio
Closed-end Funds
Almeezan Mutual Fund 0.2437 0.2899 0.5483
Asian Stock Fund 0.0248 0.3663 -0.1636
First Capital Fund 0.0353 0.3119 -0.1584
KASAB Premier Fund 0.1863 0.3851 0.2637
Golden Arrow Fund 0.1496 0.2831 0.4057
BSJS Balance Fund 0.2053 0.1849 0.6518
Prudential Stock Fund 0.0220 0.2195 -0.2857
Safeway Mutual Fund 0.1486 0.2918 0.2189
Tri Star Mutual Fund -0.1706 0.7837 -0.3258
ICP (SEMF) 0.3197 0.3105 0.7564
4th ICP Mutual Fund 0.3162 0.2147 1.0778
Open-end Fund
National Investment (Unit)
Trust-equity Fund 0.2468 0.1757 0.9219
Unit Trust of
Pakistan-Balance Fund 0.1770 0.0870 1.0597
Overall position/industry 0.1504 0.1384 0.4738
Table 2
Average
Name of Fund/ Return Treynor
Fund Objective 1997-2004 Beta Ratio
Closed-end Funds
Almeezan Mutual Fund 0.2437 0.75 0.2103
Asian Stock Fund 0.0248 0.83 -0.0714
First Capital Fund 0.0353 0.63 -0.0783
KASAB Premier Fund 0.1863 0.93 0.1093
Golden Arrow Fund 0.1996 0.71 0.1618
BSJS Balance Fund 0.2053 0.41 0.2911
Prudential Stock Fund 0.0220 0.54 -0.1162
Safeway Mutual Fund 0.1486 0.62 0.1032
Tri Star Mutual Fund -0.1706 0.28 -0.9121
ICP (SEMF) 0.3197 0.38 0.6183
4th ICP Mutual Fund 0.3162 0.15 1.5400
Open-end Funds
National Investment
(Unit)Trust-equity Fund 0.2468 0.64 0.2572
Unit Trust of Pakistan--
Balance Fund 0.1770 0.17 0.5428
Overall/Industry Position 0.1504 0.50 0.1347
Table 3
Name of Fund Alpha
Closed-end Funds
Almeezan Mutual Fund 9.18
Asian Stock Fund -13.06
First Capital Fund -5.07
KASAB Premier Fund 2.67
Golden Arrow Fund 5.88
BSJS Balance Fund 8.5
Prudential Stock Fund -11.20
Safeway Mutual Fund 1.20
Tri Star Mutual Fund -29.13
ICP (SEMF) 19.25
4th ICP Mutual Fund 24.0
Open-end Funds
National Investment (Unit) Trust-equity Fund 0.57
Unit Trust of Pakistan-Balance Fund 7.45
Overall Position/Industry 6.027
Table 4
Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive Summary Statistics of Mutual Funds and KSE 100 Index
Returns from 1997-2004
Description Mutual Funds KSE 100 Index
Mean 0.150 0.195
Standard Deviation 0.138 0.405
Standard Error 0.038 0.153
Median 0.186 0.257
Minimum -0.171 -0.560
Maximum 0.32 0.67