Population trends and rates of population growth in Pakistan: assessment of preliminary results of the 1998 census.
Hashmi, Sultan S. ; Sultan, Mehboob
The fifth Population Census of Pakistan was conducted during 2-18
March, 1998. The population reported in this census was 130.58 million,
with an average rate of growth of 2.61 percent per annum for the
intercensal period of 1981-1998. The fifth census was due in March 1991
but was held during March 1998 due to the tendency of over-reporting
among provinces at the time of housing census, which was undertaken as a
preparatory step to the main population census. Several attempts were
made between March 1991 and March 1998 and each time the census had to
be postponed for the same reason.
After all, the housing and population censuses were held with the
assistance of military personnel who were checking the validity of
members of each household independently. This dual approach not only
helped preventing over-enumeration but also ensured maximum accuracy.
This one hundred percent check eliminated the need for a
post-enumeration check through a post-enumeration sample survey, which
has its own limitations, aside from the time lag and sampling errors.
The results of the census showed that its estimates of population
for the country and its provinces/areas were very close to the estimates
made in the projections by national experts in 1986. Based on the
history of the Population Welfare Programme and other developments, an
attempt has been made to estimate the rate of growth and population size
for the years 1977 to 1997. Major developments in family planning have
been achieved during the Seventh and the Eighth Five-Year Plans, from
1988-98, and there had a significant effect in lowering the rate of
growth.
BACKGROUND
The population reported by the latest census of the country
undertaken during March 2-18, 1998 has provided a provisional figure of
130.58 million and a rate of growth of 2.61 percent per annum
[Population Census Organisation (1998)]. The rate of growth of 2.6
percent per annum for the period 1981-1998 is an average for the 17
years period and the current rate of annual growth would be lower than
2.6 percent. In this article attempt is made to present the background
of population growth trend to estimate possible current and past levels
of growth rates for the country.
The first population census in the country was undertaken in 1951
with a census date of 28th February and the second census was conducted
in 1961 as of 31 January (Table 1). At that time the country consisted
of East Pakistan and West Pakistan. The 1951 census reported a
population figure of 42.06 million for East Pakistan and 33.78 million
for West Pakistan with a difference of 8.28 million between the two
wings. The 1961 census showed that the population of East Pakistan was
50.85 million and that of West Pakistan was 42.98 million with a
difference of 7.87 million between the two [Hashmi (1963)]. The
intercensal rate of growth (1951-1961) was 1.9 percent and 2.4 percent
in East and West Pakistan respectively [Population Census Organisation
(1961)]. The annual rate of growth was higher in West Pakistan as the
inflow of migrants from India and other neighbouring countries was
continuing.
The third census which was due in January 1971 was postponed due to
political strife in East Pakistan. In the meantime one unit of West
Pakistan created in October 1955 was divided back to four provinces of
Punjab, Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan plus FATA by the then Martial Law Authority in July 1970. Ultimately East Pakistan had separated and
became Bangladesh in 1971.
The third census was finally held in September 1972 in Pakistan
(formerly West Pakistan) and reported a population of 65.3 million for
the four provinces and FATA which provided an intercensal increment of
22 million and a rate of growth of 3.66 percent per annum for the
country. The large growth of population aside from the natural increase
and immigration mainly from Bangladesh and other neighbouring countries
was a result of over reporting by provinces for political representation
and other gains expected from the federal government. Since then the
political awareness in provinces of Pakistan has heightened and trend of
over reporting and over enumeration of population started.
The extent of over enumeration was significant as there were 28 out
of then 63 districts in 1972 which had reported an annual rate of growth
of four percent and over. Those districts which had reported an annual
rate of growth of four percent and over in the 1981 Census were 19 out
of 63. Those districts which had an annual growth rate of five percent
and over were 14 out of 63 in 1972 and also 14 out of 63 in the 1981
census. There were eight districts in 1981 which had reported an annual
rate of growth as high as 6.9 percent, 8.2 percent, 8.9 percent, 9.2
percent, 10.2 percent, 10.5 percent, 11.8 percent and 13.1 percent
[Population Census Organisation (1985)]. The population figures reported
in the de jure system of 1972 and 1981 censuses were accepted by the
Government and had become legal for use for various purposes.
The fifth population census which was due in March 1991 had to be
postponed several times because of the trend of over reporting that had
been started at the stage of house-listing. Ultimately to over-come this
trend and improve the quality of census data, services of Army personnel
who were specially trained in census methodology, had to be mobilised.
The March 1998 census is the result of endeavours of two independent
organisations of the country, one checking on the other thus ensuring
the accuracy as far as was possible. Another advantage of simultaneously
engaging two organisations is that it obviates the need for a post
enumeration sample survey which has its own limitations aside from time
lag and sampling errors.
It was also noted that until 1991 various governments and other
agencies were using the 1972-1981 intercensal growth rate of 3.1 percent
per annum although it was a rounded average of the period. In 1992,
National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) prepared a paper arguing
that the rate of growth was lower and not 3.1. To determine the growth
rate, an Inter-Ministerial meeting was held in the Planning Commission on 28th September, 1992. In this meeting it was decided that for the
Eighth Five Year Plan 1993-98 a birth rate of 39 per 1000, a death rate
of 10 per 1000 and a growth rate of 2.9 percent for 1992-93 should be
used as bench mark with a target of achieving 2.7 percent for the
terminal year of the Plan in 1998 [Planning Commission (1994)].
The Ministry of Population Welfare did not agree with the Planning
Commission and they decided that they will achieve a target of 2.6
percent per annum in 1998 [Ministry of Planning (n. d.)]. Due to
different targets NIPS had to prepare two sets of population projections
conditioned by the growth rate of 2.9 percent at the beginning of the
plan period and targets of 2.7 and 2.6 percent for the terminal year.
The independent projections prepared by NIPS prior to 1992 do
estimate that population figures estimated for 1998 are close to the
1998 population census results. Medium variant of the set of population
projections prepared in 1986 by a group of national experts provide the
national and provincial estimates as shown in Table 2 and Figure 1
[Hashmi et al. (1986)].
Another medium variant of the set of projections prepared in 1987
for the Population Welfare Programme included in the Seventh Five Year
Plan 1988-93 provide an interpolated figure of 130.67 million for 1998
[Population Welfare Division (1987), p. 26]. Coincidentally estimates
produced by these projections are close to the 1998 population census
figures.
It seems that the results of the 1998 census are more reliable than
the results of the 1972 and 1981 censuses which were exaggerated. Also
as compared to Bangladesh until even 1981, Bangladesh (87 million)
[Statistical Office (1987), p. 137] had about three million more
population than Pakistan (84 million). But in 1998 Pakistan has about
seven million more than Bangladesh (123 million). In a period of 17
years Pakistan has added 46 million as compared to 36 million by
Bangladesh. In view of the more successful programme of Bangladesh this
transition may be more logical as compared to wild guesses being made by
some quarters that the current population of Pakistan or its rate of
growth is far higher.
The Population Welfare Programme of the country started in 1960 but
progress made until the Sixth Five-Year Plan was modest. More
significant progress has been made in the Programmes included in the
Seventh and Eighth Five-Year Plans when coverage especially of rural
areas, was expanded and Village Based Family Planning Workers (VBFPWs)
and Lady Health Workers (LHWs) were engaged. Proper monitoring and
evaluation of the family planning outlets were introduced. IEC campaign
was strengthened, social marketing and Social Action Programmes (SAPs)
were introduced and correspondingly financial resources were
substantially increased from Rs 2.3 billion in the Sixth Plan to Rs 3.5
billion in the Seventh Plan and to Rs 5.5 billion in the Eighth Plan for
the Population Welfare Programme alone.
In addition, credit must also be given to the people of Pakistan
who took the initiative independent of the programme and have been using
family planning methods at their own. Of course some people are shy and
they do not go to the programme or any other outlet and they use
traditional methods or they may obtain and use modern methods privately.
They do not divulge in the surveys that they are users of contraceptives
[Hashmi (1996), p.705-715].
Besides, in spite of restricted definition of treating the notified
or incorporated areas and cantonments as urban rather than areas with
urban characteristics several large agglomerations have been classified
as rural. Following this restricted definition the 1998 census reported
that the percentage of urban in the total population of Pakistan was
32.5 percent. In spite of the inadequate definition Pakistan has more
urban population than any other country in the SAARC region. It has
higher GNP per capita than Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal and has
more favourable socioeconomic environment for adopting family planning
if all necessary services are provided.
Both Bangladesh and India have been having more inputs, have more
efficient and successful Programmes and have reportedly higher
contraceptive prevalence rates (CPR) than Pakistan, the later is at
least trailing behind the former two. While CPRs of Bangladesh anti
India are 49 percent and 42 percent respectively [1998 Population
Reference Bureau], current CPR of Pakistan including shy users is at
least not less than 30 percent [Hashmi (1996), p.711]. This CPR of
Pakistan is likely to rise further rather rapidly in an amenable milieu which has now been created.
Bangladesh, with the exceptions of some island countries, has a
current (as of 1998) population density of 2454 persons per square mile,
and is the most densely settled country in the world. It is almost six
times as densely settled as Pakistan [Population Reference Bureau
(1998)]. After separation from Pakistan it had to attend to its most
serious population problem on priority basis as its land resources are
depleting. For tackling of this serious problem both national and
international resources in Bangladesh are being mobilised to achieve the
replacement level of fertility and ultimately attain a zero rate of
population growth.
On the other hand Pakistan with current lower population density
(currently 439 person per square mile) and high density of 2.31 persons
per acre of agriculture land has made slower progress in the past, but
now people are feeling the economic pressure on their resources and
family planning activities of the country are expected to increase
faster if programme tempo is maintained.
SEX RATIO
Another provisional information generated by the 1998 census
pertains to current sex ratios. Historically population of Pakistan has
shown high sex ratios defined as males per 100 females (Table 3).
Although at the national level there is a systematic decline in the
sex ratios, there is some fluctuation among provinces and areas which
could be attributed to different factors. For example, different
patterns of internal and external migration, differentials in coverage
of female population, double counting of males and under reporting of
females are the problems. There is a need for an experimental study to
find out what is the reason for a high sex ratio. Is mortality level
among females still high? Or, is it the high prevalence of cross cousin marriages which generates high sex ratio at birth? Although not strictly
comparable several surveys undertaken in the country also reveal high
sex ratios than censuses but of lower magnitude. These questions among
others could be investigated in such a study.
ESTIMATION OF POPULATION GROWTH RATES
With regard to estimating the population after 1981 by various
quarters by using the rounded average of intercensal rate of growth of
3.1 percent instead of actual 3.05 percent per annum pertaining to the
period 1972-81 provided exaggerated estimates as this rate is slightly
more than the average for the period 1972-81. Assuming that the average
would apply to the middle of the intercensal period, attempt is made to
estimate rates of growth and population for each year of the period
1977-98.
In late seventies and early eighties, reduction in population
growth rate was rather modest. However, it gained momentum with the
passage of time when new initiatives were realised especially during the
Seventh and Eighth Five Year Plans. A significant and accelerated
progress was made during the periods of Seventh and Eighth Five-Year
Plans 1988-93 and 1993-98. During this period coverage of rural areas
where most of the country's population lives was expanded, social
marketing was strengthened, Social Action Programme I and II and Prime
Ministers' Programme on Family Planning and Primary Health Services were introduced. These and other developments such as monitoring and
evaluations accelerated the performance of the population welfare
programme. In view of these developments and initiatives, family
planning activities in the country have made some significant impact on
the rate of growth of population. However, more assessment would have to
be made when Population Census Organisation would produce additional
detailed tabulations for the 1998 census.
Attempt has been made to estimate population and annual growth
rates for each year of the period 1977 to 1998 in Tables 4 and 5. There
are certain constraints in estimating growth rates of higher magnitude
for each year of the period 1981-98 than those have been shown in these
tables. These constraints are:
Alternative-1
1. Population totals are given for the initial and terminal years
of the intercensal period.
2. Average annual growth rates are also given for the intercensal
periods 1981-1998 and also for 1972-1981.
3. There is also evidence of trends in the performance of the
family planning programme during the reference period.
In view of the above it is to be noted that there is no scope of
guess work or personal opinions of individuals or their feelings about
the past or current rates of growth. Scientifically the growth rates and
population for the period 1982 to 1997 are determined by keeping the
reported population and growth rates of 1981 and 1998 as constant.
Providing cushions is another mistake we have been making in the past
which results in lack of efficiency and performance. Population
parameters must be based on logical reasoning and trends. Demography is
more exact science than any other social science. Demographic variables
are interrelated. If we know some variables we can infer some others.
The population size for 1981 as well as for 1998 is given by the
respective censuses. The intercensal growth rates for the two periods
1972-81 and 1981-1998 are provided by the censuses. The determination of
population and growth rates for each year of the period is a
mathematical exercise but it must depict a logical trend rather than a
linear trend. Following procedure is used for obtaining the growth rates
and population totals for each year of the period 1977-98.
1. The exact intercensal growth rate for the period 1972-81 was
3.05 percent and not 3.1 percent. This is an average growth rate for the
period and can be assumed to represent the mid year of 1972-81, i.e.
1977.
2. The period of late seventies was characterised by the low
performance of the population welfare programme. During this period as
already mentioned, the field activities of the family planning programme
including its IEC component were banned. Resultantly, the performance of
the family planning programme was very low.
3. This followed by laying off of about 4000 field staff of the
programme who resorted to litigation which also slowed down the field
activities and the performance of the programme during early and mid
eighties was modest.
4. The performance of the population programme picked up during the
Seventh and Eighth Five Year Plan periods 1988-93 and 1993-1998. During
these periods efforts were made for the improvement of the programme.
The coverage especially of the rural areas was expanded; village based
family planning workers were engaged; Prime Minister's programme of
Family Planning and Primary Health care was introduced; social marketing
was strengthened, Social Action Programmes were introduced; monitoring
and evaluation of service outlets was organised and systematised;
Information, Education and Communication component of the programme was
further strengthened; and Non-Governmental Organisations activities were
reorganised. Correspondingly financial resources were increased.
Under these developments, compared to the period prior to 1988, the
decline in the growth rate was faster during the post 1988 period and
especially during the Eighth Five-Year Plan (1993-98).
Under the limitations placed by the given parameters two
alternative growth rates have been calculated which have been shown in
Table 4 and Table 5. Alternative 1 provides a growth rate of 2.02
percent (Table 4) for 1997-98 and alternative 2 provides 2.16 percent
(Table 5).
Alternative 2 has been achieved by snowing improved performance of
the programme during the late seventies. This might have been possible
in spite of banning the field activities including IEC component of the
programme during this period as an effect of carry over of IUD and
female contraceptive surgery administered earlier and continuation of
use of traditional methods by some individuals.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
The progress indicated by the results of the 1998 population census
is consoling. These results are not sufficient considering the duration
of the programme which began in 1960. The current growth rate of
population for 1997-98 is still high. If this growth rate of 2.02
continues the population of the country could double in 34 years. If the
rate of growth is 2.18 the doubling will take place in 32 years. These
periods are significantly shorter than the doubling periods of
population for the more developed countries which is 548 years, less
developed countries which is 40 years and Asia which is 46 years. If the
current growth rate of Pakistan continues it is still one of the highest
in South/Central Asia and the SAARC region (Table 6).
This small reduction after a long period of time is a signal that
demographic transition has started. If this is so, strenuous efforts of
the programme and non--programme activities are needed for its
continuation. One important factor for the achievement of recent success
has been "monitoring and evaluation" of the programme outlets.
This activity must be strengthened and continued to maintain the tempo.
Other measures which could be adopted include the follow up of those
clients who either want to space or prevent births altogether but are
not using family planning methods. The survey undertaken in 1996-97
shows that they still constitute a large percentage of 37 of eligible
women [Hakim et al. (1998)]. If they are convinced and other barriers
affecting their behaviour are removed, contraceptive prevalence rate
would substantially increase.
REFERENCES
Hakim, Abdul, John Cleland, and Mansoor-ul-Hassan Bhatti (1998)
Pakistan Fertility and Family Planning Survey 1996-97, Preliminary
Report. National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad and Centre
for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Hashmi, Sultan S. (1963) Main Features of the Demographic
Conditions in Pakistan. Paper presented to the Asian Population
Conference, New Delhi, December 10-12, Central Statistical Office,
Karachi.
Hashmi, Sultan S. (1996) Shy/Silent Users of Contraceptives in
Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 35:4 705-717.
Hashmi, Sultan S., Khalil A. Siddiqui, A. Razzaque Rukanuddin, and
Naseem I. Farooqui (1986) Population Projection, Pakistan 1981 to 2031
(Provincial 1981 to 2006). Islamabad: National Institute of Population
Studies.
Ministry of Planning (n. d.) Population Welfare Programme for the
Eighth Five-Year Plan, 1993-98. Government of Pakistan, Islamabad.
Planning Commission (1994) Eighth Five-Year Plan (1993-98).
Government of Pakistan, Islamabad.
Population Census Organisation (1961) Census of Pakistan Population
1961 Volume I. Karachi: Ministry of Home and Kashmir Affairs.
Population Census Organisation (1985) Hand Book of Population
Census Data. Islamabad: Statistics Division.
Population Census Organisation (1998) Provincial Results of Fifth
Population and Housing Census held in March 1998. Islamabad: Statistics
Division.
Population Reference Bureau (1998) World Population Data Sheet.
Washington, D.C.
Population Welfare Division, Report of the working Group on
Population Welfare Programme for Seventh Five-Year and Perspective Plan,
Ministry of Planning and Development, Government of Pakistan. Islamabad.
Statistical Office (1987) 1985 Demographic Yearbook. Thirty-seventh
Issue. New York: Department of International Economic and Social
Affairs, United Nations.
Sultan S. Hashmi is Resident Adviser and Mehboob Sultan is Senior
Fellow at the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS),
Islamabad.
Table 1
Population Size, Density, and Growth Rate of Total and
Urban Population. Pakistan. 1951-1998
Total Population
Size Annual Population
Growth Density
Rate Per Sq.
Year Km.
1951 33816555 -- 42.5
(28th Feb) (9161)
1961 42978261 2.45 54.0
(31 Jan) (22343)
1972 65320941 3.66 82.0
16 Sep) (18933)
1981 84253644 3.05 105.8
(1 March) (30746)
1998 130579571 2.61 164.0
(2 March) (46326)
Urban Population
Size Percent Annual
(000) of Total Growth
Year Rate
1951
(28th Feb) 6019 17.8 --
1961
(31 Jan) 9655 22.5 4.92
1972 (6939)
16 Sep) 16594 25.4 4.73
1981 (7247)
(1 March) 23841 28.3 4.38
1998 (11234)
(2 March) 42458 32.5 3.45
Sources: Population Census Organisation (1985).
Population Census Organisation (1998).
Table 2
Comparison of the 1998 Population Reported in the Census and
the Population Estimated in 1986 by Projections
Percent
1998 1998 Population Distribution
Census Projected in 1998
Population 1986 Census
Area (1) (2) (3)
Pakistan 130580 130222 100.00
NWFP 17555 17091 13.44
FATA 3138 3399 2.40
Punjab (Including
Islamabad) 73384 73624 56.20
Sindh 29991 29412 22.97
Balochistan 6511 6696 4.99
Percent
Distribution Difference
Projection between
for 1998 3 and 4
Area (4) (5)
Pakistan 100.00 --
NWFP 13.12 0.32
FATA 2.61 -0.21
Punjab (Including
Islamabad) 56.54 -0.34
Sindh 22.59 0.38
Balochistan 5.14 0.15
Table 3
Sex Ratios according to Censuses of Pakistan, 1951-1998
Area 1951 1961 1992 1981 1998
Pakistan 116.4 115.3 114.3 110.6 108.1
NWFP 112.4 108.8 108.4 108.7 104.3
FATA 112.0 110.4 103.3 108.3 108.8
Punjab 115.3 114.3 116.2 110.8 106.9
Sindh 124.3 123.2 115.1 110.7 111.7
Balochistan 121.2 121.7 113.2 111.5 114.9
Islamabad -- -- 123.6 118.9 116.2
Sources: Population Census Organisation (1985).
Population Census Organisation (1998).
Table 4
Population, Growth Rates, and Difference in
Growth Rates, 1981-98
Growth Rate (GR) Population Difference
Period (Years) (Percentages) (in Million) in G.R.
1977 3.05 74.757 0.01
1978 3.04 77.037 0.01
1979 3.03 79.379 0.01
1980 3.02 81.784 0.01
1981 3.01 84.254 0.01
1982 2.985 86.790 0.025
1983 2.955 89.381 0.030
1984 2.92 92.022 0.035
1985 2.88 94.709 0.040
1986 2.835 97.437 0.045
1987 2.785 100.199 0.050
1988 2.725 102.989 0.060
1989 2.665 105.796 0.060
1990 2.602 108.615 0.065
1991 2.532 111.442 0.070
1992 2.462 114.263 0.070
1993 2.382 117.076 0.080
1994 2.302 119.865 0.080
1995 2.212 122.624 0.090
1996 2.12 125.337 0.095
1997 2.02 127.994 0.100
1998 130.580
Note: Excluding foreign diplomats and aliens.
Table 5
Population, Growth Rates, and Difference in
Growth Rates, 1981-98
Period Growth Rate (GR) Population Difference
(Years) (Percentages) (in Million) in G.R.
1977 3.05 74.800
1978 3.03 77.082 0.02
1979 3.01 79.417 0.02
1980 2.99 81.808 0.02
1981 2.96 84.254 0.03
1982 2.93 86.748 0.03
1983 2.90 89.290 0.03
1984 2.86 91.879 0.04
1985 2.82 94.507 0.04
1986 2.78 97.172 0.04
1987 2.74 99.873 0.04
1988 2.695 102.610 0.045
1989 2.645 105.375 0.045
1990 2.595 108.162 0.045
1991 2.535 110.969 0.05
1992 2.475 113.782 0.055
1993 2.415 116.598 0.055
1994 2.355 119.414 0.06
1995 2.295 122.226 0.07
1996 2.230 125.031 0.07
1997 2.16 127.819 0.07
1998 130.580
Note: Excluding foreign diplomats and aliens.
Table 6
Growth Rates and Related Indicators of SAARC Countries, 1998
Population Annual Growth Doubling Time
Country Mid 1998 Rate (Years)
Bangladesh 124.178 1.6 43
Bhutan 1.922 2.8 25
India 974.912 1.6 43
Maldives 23.147 3.0 23
Nepal 141.680 2.5 28
Pakistan 130.580 (a) 2.0-2.2 34-32
Sri Lanka 18.459 1.0 69
Percentage Urban Per Capita GDP
Country Population 1995 (in US $)
Bangladesh 20 240
Bhutan 7 420
India 28 340
Maldives 28 990
Nepal 11 200
Pakistan 32.5 460
Sri Lanka 23 700
Sources: United Nations ESCAP, Population and Development
Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, 1998.
(a) Population Census Organisation, Provisional Results of
Fifth Population and Housing Census held in March, 1998.
Fig. 1 Population of Pakistan according to Population Census 1998 and
the 1986 Projections.
Region
Projections 1986 1998 Census
Pakistan 130.58 130.222
NWFP 17.555 17.091
FATA 3.138 3.399
Punjab 73.384 73.624
Sindh 29.991 29.412
Balochistan 6.511 6.969
