Sticky price and sticky information price-setting models: what is the difference?
Keen, Benjamin D.
I. INTRODUCTION
Empirical studies suggest that inflation adjusts gradually after a
monetary policy shock, with the peak occurring several quarters later.
(1) Most theoretical models, however, generate an inflation response
that peaks on impact. Nelson (1998) finds that even the introduction of
sticky prices does not help solve that problem. Mankiw and Reis (2002)
argue that the key to generating a substantial lag in the peak inflation
response is the introduction of sticky information, not sticky prices,
in a model.
The premise in Mankiw and Reis (2002) is that the slow
dissemination of information on macroeconomic conditions is responsible
for the sluggish adjustment in inflation. In their study, the gradual
flow of information is incorporated into a partial equilibrium model via
a Fischer (1977)--style price-setting rule. (2) This rule assumes that
every firm adjusts its price each period, but the expectations of
current and future economic conditions used to set that price are
updated infrequently. Hence, information and not prices tends to be
sticky. Mankiw and Reis (2002) show that a sticky information model, in
contrast to a standard sticky price model, can generate a substantial
lag in the inflation peak after a monetary disturbance. These results
lead Mankiw and Reis (2002) to conclude that sticky information should
replace sticky prices in New Keynesian models of the business cycle.
This article begins by using Mankiw and Reis' (2002) partial
equilibrium model to reproduce their finding that inflation responds
with a significant lag in a sticky information model but adjusts rapidly
in a sticky price model. Uncertainty about the parameterization of one
of the equations in their model, however, persuades us to examine the
robustness of their results. A sensitivity analysis shows that the
lagged peak in inflation occurs anywhere from one to seven periods after
a monetary disturbance depending on the parameterization of the model.
In order to determine a plausible parameterization for their model, we
integrate a sticky information rule into a dynamic stochastic general
equilibrium (DSGE) model where the monetary authority follows a money
growth rule as in Mankiw and Reis (2002). In our model, inflation peaks
one period after a monetary policy shock, which is consistent with a
parameterization of the partial equilibrium model different from the one
used by Mankiw and Reis (2002). We then conduct a second sensitivity
analysis to determine whether the addition of more real rigidities and
changes to the monetary policy rule can assist our DSGE model with
sticky information in producing results consistent with Mankiw and Reis
(2002). (3) Our findings demonstrate that a considerable amount of real
rigidities are necessary if a DSGE model with sticky information is
going to generate the seven-period lag in the peak inflation rate
produced in Mankiw and Reis (2002). When the monetary instrument is the
nominal interest rate instead of the money growth rate, we show that a
DSGE model with sticky information, like the standard sticky price
model, produces an immediate inflation peak after a monetary policy
shock. Those results suggest that a sticky information model can produce
more plausible inflation responses than a sticky price model if the
model includes important real rigidities and a money growth policy rule.
The inflation behavior in the two models, however, is similar when the
policy instrument is the nominal interest rate.
The rest of the article is arranged as follows. Section II
introduces the partial equilibrium model used by Mankiw and Reis (2002)
and replicates inflation's response to a monetary policy shock with
both sticky prices and sticky information. Then, a sensitivity analysis
is conducted to determine the robustness of those results to different
parameterizations of both models. Section III examines inflation's
response to a monetary policy shock when a sticky information
price-setting rule is incorporated into a DSGE model. Inflation's
response in the DSGE model is compared with its behavior in the partial
equilibrium model. Section IV presents a sensitivity analysis of
inflation's response to different parameterizations of the DSGE
model. Section V concludes.
II. PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH
In an influential study, Mankiw and Reis (2002) use a partial
equilibrium model to show that a sticky information model can generate a
gradual inflation response that peaks several quarters after a monetary
policy shock, while a sticky price model produces an inflation response
that peaks on impact. The result leads Mankiw and Reis (2002) to
conclude that New Keynesian business cycle models should be specified
routinely with a sticky information rule, as opposed to a sticky price
rule. Given the potential implications of such a conclusion, we begin by
examining the robustness of Mankiw and Reis' (2002) inflation
responses in their sticky price and sticky information models.
A. The Model
The sticky price and sticky information models used by Mankiw and
Reis (2002) comprise five equations. Of the five equations, four are
common to both models, while only the price-setting equation is unique
to each model. Since the models share most of the same equations, we
present one common model but specify it with a sticky price and a sticky
information price-setting rule.
In every period t, each firm prefers to set a price,
[P.sup.*.sub.t], that is a function of the price level, [P.sub.t], and
output, [y.sub.t]:
(1) log([P.sub.*.sub.t]/[P.sub.*]) = log([P.sub.t]/P) +
[gamma]log([y.sub.t]/y),
where [gamma] > 0 is the sensitivity of a firm's price to
output, and a variable without a time subscript represents a
steady-state value. Although Equation (1) is not determined by solving a
profit-maximizing problem, a similar equation can be derived using the
Dixit and Stiglitz (1977) methodology of monopolistically competitive
firms. The difference between the pricing rule in Mankiw and Reis (2002)
and a rule derived by solving a profit-maximizing problem is that in a
profit-maximizing framework [P.sub.*.sub.t] depends on marginal cost and
not output. Mankiw and Reis (2002), however, argue that output is a
sufficient proxy for marginal cost because the demand pressures for
additional output cause marginal cost to rise. While output and marginal
cost move together over the business cycle, the relative volatility of
marginal cost to output influences the similarity between those two
pricing rules. (4) This distinction is important because firm pricing
decisions directly influence inflation's response to a monetary
policy shock. A comparison of the impact of these two pricing rules on
inflation is discussed in more detail in Section III.
Sticky price and sticky information models differ by the method in
which firms set their prices. In the sticky price model, a fraction of
the firms each period can select a new price, [X.sub.t,0], while the
remaining firms can only adjust their price by the steady-state
inflation rate. Hence, the price charged by a firm that last selected a
new price j periods ago is [X.sub.t,j] = [[pi].sup.j] [X.sub.t-j,0],
where [pi] is the gross steady-state inflation rate. Based on Calvo
(1983), the conditional probability that a firm can pick a new price in
any period is [eta], while the conditional probability it must adjust
its price by the steady-state inflation rate is (1 - [eta]). Since
price-selecting opportunities are infrequent, a price-changing firm sets
a price equal to the weighted average of its optimal prices until its
next expected pricing opportunity:
(2) log([X.sub.t,0]/X) = [eta][[infinity].summation over (j=0)] [(1
- [eta]).sup.j]
[E.sub.t][log([P.sup.*.sub.t+j]/([[pi].sup.j] [P.sup.*]))].
In the sticky information model, every firm can adjust its price
each period, but the expectations used to set that price is updated
sporadically. Utilizing Calvo's (1983) model of random adjustment,
each firm's conditional probability that it can adjust its
expectations is [eta], while the remaining fraction of firms, (1 -
[eta]), must set their prices based on expectations last adjusted j
periods ago. Hence, each firm sets its price, [P.sup.*.sub.t,j], equal
to its expectation of the optimal price formed j periods ago:
(3) log([X.sub.tj]/X) =
[E.sub.t-j][log([P.sup.*.sub.t]/[P.sup.*])].
A common characteristic of sticky price and sticky information
models is that the adjustment rate in prices or expectations, [eta], is
constant. Thus, the fraction of firms that last adjusted their prices or
expectations j periods ago is [eta][(1 - [eta]).sup.j]. The calculation
of the price level, which is the average of all prices in the economy,
then is identical for both models:
(4) log([P.sub.t]/P) = [eta] [[infinity].summation over (j=0)] [(1
- [eta]).sup.j]log([X.sub.t,j]/X).
To complete the model, we identify an aggregate demand equation and
a monetary policy rule. A simple equation of exchange is specified for
aggregate demand:
(5) log([y.sub.t]/y) + log([P.sub.t]/P) = log([M.sub.t/M),
where [M.sub.t], is nominal money balances, and log velocity is
assumed to be zero and constant. (5) The monetary authority conducts
policy via a money growth rule. According to the rule, money growth
follows a first-order autoregressive process:
(6) [DELTA]log([M.sub.t]/M) = [[rho].sub.M]
[DELTA]log([M.sub.t-1]/M) + [[epsilon].sub.M,t],
where 0 [less than or equal to] [[rho].sub.M] < 1 and
[[epsilon].sub.M,t]~N(0, [[sigma].sup.2.sub.M]). Hence, a monetary
policy shock permanently adjusts the money stock but only temporarily
changes the money growth rate.
B. Parameterizing the Model
A system of five equations log-linearized around their
nonstochastic steady states characterizes the sticky price and the
sticky information models. Specifically, Equations (1), (2), (4), (5),
and (6) describe the sticky price model's equilibrium, while
Equations (1), (3), (4), (5), and (6) characterize the sticky
information model's equilibrium. Since the system of equations in
both models are log-linearized around their nonstochastic steady state,
the rational expectations solutions can be obtained easily by using the
methodology of King and Watson (1998, 2002).
The parameter values chosen for both models are the same values
used by Mankiw and Reis (2002). Parameter [eta], which represents the
conditional probability of adjustment in prices or expectations, is set
to 0.25. This value is consistent with Rotemberg and Woodford's
(1997) survey on the frequency of price adjustment by firms and with
Carroll's (2006) estimate on the dissemination of information on
inflation in the economy. The autoregressive coefficient in the monetary
policy rule, [[rho].sub.M], is set to 0.5. Christiano, Eichenbaum, and
Evans (CEE) (1998) find that the parameterization reasonably
approximates exogenous M2 money growth. The steady-state inflation rate
is set to zero so that [rho] equals 1. The results for both the sticky
price and sticky information pricing rules are unchanged for positive
steady-state inflation rates. Finally, the sensitivity of a firm's
optimal price to output, [gamma], is set to 0.10. Although Mankiw and
Reis (2002) do not fully explain why the appropriate parameterization
for [gamma] is 0.10, they argue that a small value of [gamma] is
consistent with a considerable level of real rigidity or a significant
degree of strategic complementarity. Given the uncertainty about the
appropriate value of [gamma], we examine the sensitivity of our results
to various parameterizations of y in both the sticky price and the
sticky information models.
C. Results
Figure 1 displays inflation's response to a 1% expansionary
monetary policy shock in the sticky price and the sticky information
models. (6) Our results show that inflation responds differently in the
sticky price model and in the sticky information model. In the sticky
price model, price-adjusting firms substantially raise their prices
immediately after a monetary policy shock. This is true because each
firm confronts the possibility that it may not have another
price-adjustment opportunity for a number of periods. Thus, inflation
peaks immediately after a monetary disturbance, which is inconsistent
with empirical evidence. In the sticky information model,
expectations-adjusting firms only modestly raise their prices
immediately after a monetary policy shock since each firm can set a new
price in subsequent periods. The sluggish pricing response enables the
sticky information model to produce a hump-shaped inflation response
that peaks seven periods after a monetary disturbance. This result,
Mankiw and Reis (2002) argue, suggests that a sticky information model
is better than a sticky price model at generating a long lag between
monetary policy actions and inflation.
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
A key factor driving the speed of price adjustment in both models
is the responsiveness of a firm's price to changes in output.
Specifically, the value of [gamma] measures the response of a
firm's price to an expected deviation in output from its steady
state. Since uncertainty exists as to the appropriate value of [gamma],
we examine the robustness of the results in Figure 1 to different
parameterizations of [gamma].
Figure 2 presents inflation's response in the sticky price and
the sticky information models to a 1% expansionary monetary policy shock
when [gamma] equals 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00. As expected, larger
values of [gamma] speed up price adjustment in both models, which causes
the initial inflation response to be stronger. Price-adjusting firms in
the sticky price model aggressively increase their prices, which results
in an immediate peak in the inflation rate after a monetary disturbance,
regardless of the value of [gamma]. In contrast, the parameterization of
[gamma] in a sticky information model has a significant impact on when
inflation peaks. For example, when [gamma] is large,
expectations-adjusting firms set prices higher in response to the
monetary-induced increase in output. While the benchmark specification
([gamma] = 0.10) of the sticky information model produces a peak
inflation response seven periods after a monetary policy shock, its peak
inflation response is reduced to three, two, and one periods following a
monetary disturbance when [gamma] equals 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00,
respectively. These results suggest that the ability of a sticky
information model to produce a long delay in the peak inflation response
depends critically on the parameterization of [gamma]. In order to
determine a plausible value for [gamma], we incorporate a sticky
information rule into a general equilibrium model in the next section.
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
III. GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH
This section outlines a conventional DSGE model where prices are
set following a sticky information rule. We restrict our analysis to the
performance of a DSGE model with sticky information for two reasons.
One, the results generated from the partial equilibrium model indicate
that the timing of the peak inflation response after a monetary policy
shock is sensitive to the parameterization of the sticky information
model, whereas inflation immediately peaks in the sticky price model
regardless of its parameterization. Two, Nelson (1998) notes that most
sticky price models are unable to produce a lagged and gradual inflation
response after a monetary disturbance. (7) Hence, our analysis is
limited to determining whether sticky information models can account for
the following key business cycle fact missed by most sticky price
models: the inflation rate peaks several quarters after a monetary
policy shock.
A. The Model
The model comprises three distinct sectors: households, firms, and
the monetary authority. Households are utility-maximizing agents that
purchase output and supply labor and capital services to firms. Firms
are monopolistically competitive producers of goods that set prices
according to a sticky information rule. Finally, the monetary authority
conducts monetary policy via either a money growth rule or a nominal
interest rate rule.
Households begin period t with initial levels of money,
[M.sub.t-1], bonds, [B.sub.t-1], and capital, [k.sub.t]. At the start of
the period, households obtain funds from their maturing bonds,
[R.sub.t-1][B.sub.t-1], where [R.sub.t], is the gross nominal interest
rate. They receive a payment of [W.sub.t][n.sub.t] +
[P.sub.t][q.sub.t][k.sup.s.sub.t] during the period for labor,
[n.sub.t], and capital services, [k.sup.s.sub.t], supplied to firms,
where [W.sub.t] is the nominal wage rate, [P.sub.t] is the aggregate
price level, and [q.sub.t] is the real rental rate of capital services.
In addition, households receive a dividend payment, [D.sub.t], from
firms and a transfer, [T.sub.t], from the monetary authority. Those
resources are used by households to fund consumption and investment
purchases, [P.sub.t][c.sub.t] and [P.sub.t][i.sub.t], and acquire bonds,
[M.sub.t], and money, [B.sub.t], that will be carried over to the next
period. The flow of funds is described formally by the following budget
constraint:
(7) [M.sub.t] + [B.sub.t] + [P.sub.t]([c.sub.t] + [i.sub.t]) =
[W.sub.t][n.sub.t] + [P.sub.t][q.sub.t][k.sup.s.sub.t] + [D.sub.t] +
[T.sub.t] + [M.sub.t-1] + [R.sub.t-1][B.sub.t-1].
Households' demand for money balances is equal to the sum of
its nominal consumption and investment purchases:
(8) [P.sub.t]([c.sub.t] + [i.sub.t]) = [M.sub.t].
Households also accumulate capital according to the following
equation:
(9) [k.sub.t+1] - [k.sub.t] = [phi]([i.sub.t]/[k.sub.t])[k.sub.t] -
[delta]([u.sub.t])[k.sub.t],
where [phi](*) is the functional form for the capital adjustment
costs, [u.sub.t] is the capital utilization rate, and [delta](*) is the
functional form for the depreciation rate. Specifically, the function
[phi](*) represents a Hayashi (1982)-style capital adjustment costs
specification, where [i.sub.t] - [phi]([i.sub.t]/ [k.sub.t])[k.sub.t] is
the resources lost in the conversion of investment to capital. Those
lost resources are increasing and convex, which implies that [phi](*) is
an increasing and concave function in i/k ([phi]'(*) > 0,
[phi]"(*) < 0). The function [delta](*) describes the
depreciation rate as an increasing and convex function of the capital
utilization rate ([delta]'(*) > 0, [delta]"(*) > 0). The
supply of capital services provided by households to firms is
(10) [k.sup.s.sub.t] = [u.sub.t][k.sub.t].
Therefore, households can supply additional capital services to
firms by increasing their capital utilization, but it comes at the cost
of a higher depreciation rate. (8)
(8.) Efficient capital utilization by households implies that
[q.sub.t] = [delta]'([u.sub.t]).
Households are infinitely lived agents who seek to maximize their
expected utility from consumption and their expected disutility from
labor. The dynamic utility-maximizing problem of households can be
described as:
(11) [MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]
subject to Equations (7), (9), and (10). In Equation (11), the
discount factor is 0 < [beta] < 1, habit formation in consumption
preferences is present when b > 0, the weight on the disutility of
labor is [theta] > 0, and the labor-supply elasticity is 1/[zeta].
Purchases of consumption and investment goods by households make up
aggregate output, [y.sub.t]:
[y.sub.t] = [c.sub.t] + [i.sub.t].
Households' preferences for [y.sub.t] is a Dixit and Stiglitz
(1977) aggregate of a continuum of many goods ([y.sub.t](z), z [member
of] [0, 1]) such that:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII],
where -[epsilon] is the price elasticity of demand for
[y.sub.t](z). Cost minimization by households yields the following
demand for product [y.sub.t](z):
(12) [y.sub.t](z) =
[([P.sub.t](z)/[P.sub.t]).sup.-[epsilon][y.sub.t],
where [P.sub.t] is a nonlinear price index such that:
[MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII].
Firms are monopolistically competitive producers of differentiated
goods. Each firm z hires labor, [n.sub.t](z), and rents capital
services, [k.sup.s.sub.t](z), from households to produce its output,
[y.sub.t](z), according to a Cobb-Douglas production function:
(13) [y.sub.t](z) =
[k.sup.S.sub.t][(z).sup.[alpha]][n.sub.t][(z).sup.1-[alpha]],
where 0 < [alpha] < 1. Each period, every firm chooses a
combination of [k.sup.s.sub.t](z) and [n.sub.t](z) that minimizes its
costs given its production function in Equation (13), the real wage
rate, and the real rental rate of capital services. That cost
minimization yields the following two-factor demand equations:
(14) [[psi].sub.t][alpha][[n.sub.t](z)/[k.sup.s.sub.t](z)].sup.1-[alpha]] = [q.sub.t],
(15) [[psi].sub.t](1 -
[alpha])[[[k.sup.s.sub.t](z)/[n.sub.t](z)].sup.[alpha]] =
[W.sub.t]/[P.sub.t],
where [[psi].sub.t] is the Lagrangian multiplier from the
production function, interpreted as the real marginal cost of output. By
combining Equations (14) and (15), we see that [[psi].sub.t] is
identical for all firms:
[[psi].sub.t] = [(1/[(1 - [alpha])).sup.1-[alpha]]
[(1/[alpha]).sup.[alpha]][([q.sub.t]).sup.[alpha]]
[([W.sub.t]/[P.sub.t]).sup.1-[alpha]].
In the monopolistically competitive goods market, each firm z must
satisfy all of the demand for its product at the price, [P.sub.t](z), it
sets. The sticky information price-setting rule followed by firms is
similar to the wage-contracting rule developed in Fischer (1977). That
is, each firm can change its price every period, but its expectations of
current and future economic conditions, which it uses to determine that
price, are updated sporadically. The decision rule to determine whether
or not a firm is able to adjust its expectations is based on
Calvo's (1983) model of random adjustment. Specifically, the
probability that a firm can adjust its expectations before it sets a new
price is [eta], and the probability that a firm must set its new price
using expectations last updated j periods ago is (1 - [eta]).
Since firms update their information sets infrequently, the price
set by a firm depends on the number of periods j since that firm last
adjusted its expectations. Firm z, which last modified its expectations
j periods ago, seeks to maximize its profits
max([E.sub.t-j][[P.sub.t](z)[y.sub.t](z) - [W.sub.t][n.sub.t](z) -
[P.sub.t][q.sub.t][k.sup.S.sub.t](z)])
subject to the firm's demand schedule, Equation (12), and the
input factor demands, Equations (14) and (15). Therefore, the optimal
price, [X.sub.t,j], for the zth firm that last adjusted its expectations
j periods ago is
(16) [X.sub.t,j] = [E.sub.t-j][([epsilon]/([epsilon] - 1))
[P.sub.t][[psi].sub.t]].
The monetary authority conducts monetary policy by changing either
the money growth rate, [[mu].sub.t] = [M.sub.t]/[M.sub.t-1], or the
nominal interest rate. When money is the monetary instrument, the
monetary authority sets the money growth rate according to the following
rule:
(17) ln([[mu].sub.t]/[mu]) =
[[rho].sub.[mu]]ln([[mu].sub.t-1]/[mu]) + [[epsilon].sub.M,t],
where it is the steady-state value of [[mu].sub.t], 0 [less than or
equal to] [[rho].sub.[mu]] < 1, and [[epsilon].sub.M,t] ~ N(0,
[[sigma].sup.2.sub.M]). Alternatively, the monetary authority sets the
nominal interest rate using a variation of the rule proposed by Clarida,
Gali, and Gertler (2000):
(18) ln([R.sub.t]/R) = [omega]ln([R.sub.t-1]/R) + (1 -
[omega])ln([R.sup.*.sub.t]/[R.sup.*]),
where [R.sup.*.sub.t] is the target nominal interest rate, R and
[R.sup.*] are the respective steady-state values of [R.sub.t] and
[R.sup.*.sub.t], and 0 [less than or equal to] [omega] [less than or
equal to] 1. The target nominal interest rate then is set based on a
Taylor (1993)-style rule such that
(19) ln([R.sup.*.sub.t]/[R.sup.*]) = [[rho].sub.[pi]]ln
([[pi].sub.t]/[pi]) + [[rho].sub.Y] ln ([y.sub.t]/y) +
[[epsilon].sub.R,t],
where [[pi].sub.t] = [P.sub.t]/[P.sub.t-1] is the inflation rate,
[pi] and y are the respective steady-state values of [[pi].sub.t] and
[y.sub.t], and [[epsilon].sub.R,t] ~ N(0, [[sigma].sup.2.sub.R]).
B. Parameterizing the Model
The households' and firms' first-order conditions, the
identity equations, and the law of motion for the monetary
authority's policy rule form a system of difference equations
describing the model's equilibrium. Since a long-run increase in
the money supply growth rate causes [P.sub.t] to grow over time, the
nominal variables of [M.sub.t], [B.sub.t], [W.sub.t], [D.sub.t],
[T.sub.t], and [P.sub.t](z) are divided by [P.sub.t] to induce
stationarity. That transformation in the absence of stochastic shocks
allows the model to converge to a steady-state equilibrium. By log
linearizing the system around its steady state, the rational
expectations solution for the model can be solved using the methodology
of King and Watson (1998, 2002).
The parameter values used in the model are consistent with those
used in the literature. In the household sector, the discount factor,
[beta], is set to 0.99, while the preference parameter, [theta], is set
so that the nonstochastic steady-state labor supply, n, is 0.2.
Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) estimate that labor-supply elasticity,
l/[zeta], is 5.0, so [zeta] is set to 0.2. Initially, households do not
exhibit habit formation in consumption preferences (b = 0), but this
assumption is lifted in Section IV. It is not necessary to specify
explicit functional forms for the capital adjustment costs, [phi](*),
and the depreciation rate, [delta](*), since the model is linearized
around its steady state. Instead, we identify certain values for the
average, marginal, and second-derivative values of [phi](*), [delta](*),
and [u.sub.t]. The average and marginal capital adjustment costs around
their steady state are assumed to be zero ([phi](*) = i/k and
[phi]'(*) = 1), while the elasticity of the investment-capital
ratio to Tobin's q, [chi] =
[[-(i/k)[phi]"(*)/[phi]'(*)].sup.-1], is set to 1. (9) As for
[delta](*), the steady-state depreciation rate, [delta], is assumed to
be 0.025, which implies an annual depreciation rate of 10%, while the
steady-state capital utilization rate, u, is set to 0.82. Elasticity of
the marginal depreciation rate to the capital utilization rate, [xi] =
[u x [delta]"(*)/[delta]'(*)], initially is set to [infinity].
This value implies that the capital utilization rate is fixed, as is the
case in most DSGE models. The impact of variable capital utilization is
examined in Section IV.
In the firm sector, capital's share of output, [alpha], is
0.33. The elasticity of demand, [epsilon], is 6, which implies an
average mark up of price over marginal cost of 20%. This
parameterization is consistent with Rotemberg and Woodford's (1992)
survey of empirical studies. The conditional probability that a firm can
adjust its expectations, [eta], is set to 0.25. This value is the same
parameterization used by Mankiw and Reis (2002) and is consistent with
Carroll's (2006) estimates on the dissemination of information
about inflation in the economy. As for the monetary policy rule, we
initially assume that the monetary authority adheres to the money supply
growth rule specified in Equation (17). Following CEE's (1998)
analysis of the behavior of exogenous M2 money growth, the
autoregressive coefficient in the policy rule, [[rho].sub.[mu]], equals
0.5. The impact of a nominal interest rate rule on the performance of
our model is considered in detail in Section IV. Finally, the
steady-state gross money growth rate is set to 1.01, which is consistent
with a 4% annual inflation rate.
C. Results
Figure 3 presents the impulse responses for inflation, marginal
cost, and output to a 1% expansionary monetary policy shock in a DSGE
model with sticky information. Unlike in Mankiw and Reis' (2002)
partial equilibrium model with sticky information, the peak inflation
response in our model occurs only one quarter after the monetary policy
shock. Therefore, the inflation response in a DSGE model with sticky
information resembles inflation's behavior in most sticky price
models, rather than Mankiw and Reis' (2002) sticky information
model. The result indicates that Mankiw and Reis' (2002) finding of
a lagged peak in inflation after a monetary policy shock is not robust
when sticky information is incorporated into a general equilibrium
model.
[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]
The inconsistency between the inflation responses in the partial
and the general equilibrium models with sticky information can be traced
to the firms' pricing rules in each model. In the partial
equilibrium model, substitution of Equation (1) into Equation (3)
enables us to specify the price set by a firm that last adjusted its
expectations j periods ago, [X.sub.t,j], as a function of the price
level and output:
(20) log([X.sub.t,j]/X) = [E.sub.t-j][log([P.sub.t]/P) +
[gamma]log([y.sub.t]/y)].
where [gamma] = 0.10 is the sensitivity of a firm's price to
deviations in output. Output is used as a proxy for real marginal cost
since the partial equilibrium model does not include any measure of firm
costs.
In the general equilibrium model, the log linearization of the
price-setting rule in Equation (16) indicates that [X.sub.t,j] is a
function of the price level and real marginal cost:
(21) log([X.sub.t,j]/X) = [E.sub.t-j][log([P.sub.t]/P) +
log([[psi].sub.t]/[psi])].
The price-setting rules for the partial and the general equilibrium
models, (20) and (21), are identical when
[E.sub.t-j][[gamma]log([y.sub.t]/y)] =
[E.sub.t-j][log([[psi].sub.t]/ [[psi].sub.t])].
Price-setting firms that adjusted their expectations since the last
monetary policy shock have perfect expectations of [y.sub.t] and
[[psi].sub.t]. Those firms set the same prices in both models only if
[gamma] log([y.sub.t]/y) = log([[psi].sub.t]/[psi]). Dotsey and King
(2006) derive an explicit equation for [gamma] in a general equilibrium
framework with fixed capital. The derivation for [gamma] is drastically
complicated by the presence of capital investment, so we instead
implicitly calculate a value for [gamma]. Our impulse responses from the
general equilibrium model in Figure 3 show that the magnitude of
marginal cost's response, log([[psi].sub.t]/[psi]), to a monetary
policy shock exceeds that of output, log([y.sub.t]/y). The result
suggests that the optimal parameterization of [gamma] in the partial
equilibrium model is greater than 1.00. (10) Recall, in Figure 2 when
[gamma] = 1.00, inflation peaks one period after the monetary policy
shock, which is identical to inflation's behavior in the general
equilibrium model. Thus, the partial equilibrium model with sticky
information fails to generate a long lag between monetary policy actions
and the peak inflation response when [gamma] is set to a value implied
by a simple general equilibrium model.
IV. ROBUSTNESS OF THE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM RESULTS
The response of inflation to a monetary policy shock depends on
current and future pricing decisions. In a DSGE model with sticky
information, those pricing decisions are influenced by real rigidities
(i.e., factors that affect the elasticity of marginal cost with respect
to output) and the conduct of monetary policy. Real rigidities influence
firm pricing decisions and as a result, inflation dynamics by either
enhancing or dampening marginal cost's response to a monetary
policy shock. Persistent expansionary monetary policy also impacts
inflation dynamics by persuading firms to set higher prices in the
future. Since those features can influence the ability of a DSGE model
with sticky information to generate a lagged and gradual inflation
response, this section analyzes the robustness of the results in Section
III to various parameterizations of our sticky information model. We
analyze the impact of real rigidities such as variable capital
utilization, infinite labor-supply elasticity, capital adjustment costs,
and habit persistence in consumption. The effect of increased money
growth persistence on the behavior of inflation also is investigated.
Finally, we examine inflation's response in our DSGE model when the
monetary authority follows a nominal interest rate rule instead of a
money growth rule.
A. Real Rigidities
Our benchmark sticky information model is modified easily to
incorporate various real rigidities. We begin by examining individually
the impact of variable capital utilization, infinite labor-supply
elasticity, capital adjustment costs, and habit persistence in
consumption on inflation's response after a monetary disturbance.
An important interaction between capital adjustment costs and habit
persistence in consumption that affects inflation's response is
then observed. Finally, the ideal sticky information model is specified
with all of the real features that generate the slowest response in
inflation, so that the maximum lag in peak inflation can be determined.
Figure 4 illustrates the impact of those features on inflation's
response after a 1% expansionary monetary policy shock.
CEE (2005) and Dotsey and King (2006) note that variability in
capital utilization reduces price movements after a monetary policy
shock when prices are sticky. The top left graph of Figure 4 reveals
that variable capital utilization (i.e., [xi] = 1) also slows
inflation's response in a sticky information model. (11) In
particular, the ability to intensify capital utilization gives firms
another way to raise output and limit price increases in the short run.
While an increase in capital utilization raises the marginal
depreciation rate, the corresponding rise in marginal cost is less
pronounced than when firms are unable to change their capital
utilization rate. As a result, firms dampen their price increases, which
causes a smaller rise in inflation.
Price movements after a monetary disturbance also can be eased by
incorporating infinite labor-supply elasticity into our model. That
result is illustrated by the top right graph of Figure 4. To understand
how that assumption impacts marginal cost and inflation, we revisit the
households' utility-maximization problem in Equation (11).
Combining the first-order conditions for [c.sub.t] and [n.sub.t] from
Equation (11) and log linearizing the resulting efficiency condition
yield the following relationship between labor, consumption, and the
real wage:
[zeta]log([n.sub.t]/n) + log([c.sub.t]/c) = log([W.sub.t]/W) -
log([P.sub.t]/P),
where (1/[zeta]) is the labor-supply elasticity. (12) Accordingly,
the upward pressure on the real wage and marginal cost caused by an
expansionary monetary policy shock is minimized when the labor-supply
elasticity is infinite (i.e., [zeta] = 0). This sluggish response in
marginal cost then constrains the rise in prices and inflation.
Capital adjustment costs are another factor that influences
inflation dynamics. The left graph of the middle row of Figure 4 shows
that inflation responds slower to an expansionary monetary disturbance
when capital adjustment costs are eliminated from our benchmark model
(i.e., [chi] = [infinity]). Capital adjustment costs dampen
investment's response by imposing a cost on the conversion of
investment to capital. Those costs also push down the real interest
rate, which stimulates consumption. The acceleration in consumption,
however, only partially offsets the slowdown in investment, so
output's response is more restrained. This sluggishness in output
reduces the rise in money demand, which forces the price level to
increase more to clear the money market. Our result differs from models,
such as CEE (2005), where money demand depends on consumption as opposed
to output. In those models, higher consumption caused by capital
adjustment costs raises money demand, which slows down price adjustment.
An additional feature that impacts inflation's response to a
monetary policy shock is habit persistence in consumption. The right
graph of the middle row of Figure 4 reveals that inflation initially
rises more in the model with habit persistence (b = 0.6). (13)
Households that exhibit habit persistence in consumption prefer to
adjust slowly their consumption, which limits its increase after a
monetary disturbance. This sluggishness dampens the rise in output. As a
result, money demand increases less and the price level must rise more
to clear the money market. Our finding is reversed if money demand is
very elastic to nominal interest rate changes. Specifically, habit
persistence in consumption puts downward pressure on both the nominal
and real interest rates after a monetary policy shock, which pushes up
money demand. If the positive influence of the nominal interest rate
outweighs the negative influence of output, then money demand will rise
more following an expansionary monetary disturbance. Therefore, the
upward pressure on the price level is dampened in a model with habit
persistence. (14)
[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]
The impact of habit persistence on inflation's response to a
monetary policy shock depends on whether or not there are capital
adjustment costs. The bottom left graph of Figure 4 reveals that in a
model without capital adjustment costs, the introduction of habit
persistence has no effect on inflation's behavior. (Note: The
impulse response for the model "with habit persistence"
overlays the impulse response for the model "without habit
persistence.") This result is due to the interaction between
capital adjustment costs and habit persistence. In a sticky information
model, an expansionary monetary policy shock essentially creates a
temporary rise in real wealth. Since households desire a fairly constant
consumption path, they prefer to save most of their increased wealth as
capital. Without capital adjustment costs, the conversion of investment
to capital is costless, so investment spikes while consumption barely
adjusts. The fact that consumption hardly changes leads to a smooth
household consumption path without habit persistence. Thus, the
moderation in consumption caused by introducing habit persistence is so
small in the absence of capital adjustment costs that its introduction
has virtually no effect on the economy.
We denote the ideal sticky information specification as the model
that produces the longest lag in the peak inflation rate following a
monetary disturbance. For our study, that model includes variable
capital utilization, infinite labor-supply elasticity, no capital
adjustment costs, and no habit persistence. The bottom right graph of
Figure 4 compares inflation's response to an expansionary monetary
policy shock in our benchmark and ideal models. Introducing those real
rigidities into our sticky information specification increases the lag
inflation peak from only one period in the benchmark model to three
periods in the ideal model. The ideal model's response, however, is
still substantially less than the seven-period lagged inflation peak
produced in Mankiw and Reis' (2002) sticky information model and
the approximate ten-period lag generated in CEE's (2005) sticky
price and sticky wage model. To generate additional lags in peak
inflation, a DSGE model with sticky information also should include
features, such as decreasing elasticity of demand for goods and the
existence of intermediate inputs, that further reduce the elasticity of
marginal cost with respect to output. Therefore, we conclude that
numerous real rigidities are necessary if a sticky information model is
going to generate a substantial lag in the peak inflation response after
a money growth shock. Note that our result is consistent with Ball and
Romer's (1990) finding that a combination of real and nominal
rigidities is needed to produce substantial effects from nominal
rigidities in New Keynesian models.
An additional feature that has assisted sticky information models
in generating a lagged inflation response is the assumption that firms
draw labor inputs from firm-specific labor markets instead of a single
common labor market. Using a DSGE framework similar to Woodford (2003),
Trabandt (2005) shows that a sticky information model with firm-specific
labor markets can generate the substantial lagged peak in inflation
produced in Mankiw and Reis (2002). His specification of firm-specific
labor markets, however, assumes that firms are price setters and not
price takers in their respective labor markets. Specifically, a higher
firm price causes the firm's product demand and labor demand to
fall, which reduces its marginal cost. The lower marginal cost
encourages the firm to dampen its price increase, which assists the
model in producing a lagged peak in inflation. Dotsey and King (2003)
eliminate that price-setting behavior in firm-specific labor markets by
assuming that firms pool their labor-supply risks, so that each firm
pays the average aggregate marginal cost, instead of their individual
firm marginal cost. If labor-supply elasticity is greater than 1, then a
model with that style of firm-specific labor markets has a lower
elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output than a model with a
common labor market. When the labor-supply elasticity is infinity, the
elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output is minimized and
identical in both models with firm-specific labor markets and models
with a common labor market. Therefore, if we assume that firms are price
takers in the labor market, then a model with a common labor market and
an infinite labor-supply elasticity generates a lagged peak in inflation
that is as large as or larger than that generated by a model with
firm-specific labor markets.
B. Money Growth Persistence
The degree of money growth persistence in the monetary policy rule
is another factor that influences the timing of the peak in inflation
after a monetary disturbance. When firms set prices according to a
sticky information rule, only the current money supply affects the
current period price set by an expectations-adjusting firm. As a result,
the amount of money growth persistence does not initially influence the
inflation rate. Higher money growth persistence and, consequently, a
larger money stock does in subsequent periods, however, put upward
pressure on the prices set by firms that have adjusted their
expectations since the monetary disturbance. Thus, the inflation rate is
higher in subsequent periods when the increase in the money growth rate
is more persistent. This result implies that higher money growth
persistence can lead to a longer lag in the peak inflation response
following a monetary disturbance.
Standard sticky price models, such as CEE (2005), respond
differently compared with sticky information models to changes in the
degree of money growth persistence. Price-setting firms in a sticky
price model choose a price that is a positive function of current and
expected future price levels. Higher degrees of money growth persistence
raise expected future price levels. Sticky price firms, unlike sticky
information firms, respond to greater money growth persistence by
setting prices higher immediately following a monetary policy shock. As
a result, a sticky price model's initial inflation response is
greater and the time between a monetary disturbance and the peak
inflation response can be shorter than in a sticky information model.
Figure 5 examines the impact of a 1% positive money growth shock on
inflation in four sticky information models. The baseline model has
fixed capital utilization, finite labor-supply elasticity, capital
adjustment costs, and no habit persistence. Our second model contains
variable capital utilization, finite labor-supply elasticity, capital
adjustment costs, and habit persistence and is closest in structure to
CEE (2005). (15) The third model is identical to the second model,
except that it assumes infinite labor-supply elasticity. Our ideal model
has variable capital utilization, infinite labor-supply elasticity, no
capital adjustment costs, and habit persistence. (16) The inflation
response for each model is examined when [[rho].sub.[mu]] = 0.50, 0.80,
and 0.95. These values are selected because [[rho].sub.[mu]] = 0.50 is
the benchmark parameterization, [[rho].sub.[mu]] = 0.80 is one of the
largest values estimated for [[rho].sub.[mu]] in the literature, and
[[rho].sub.[mu]] = 0.95 is an unrealistically high value for
[[rho].sub.[mu]] that provides an upper bound on the impact of money
growth persistence. (17)
Our results show that raising the amount of money growth
persistence in the monetary policy rule increases the lag in the peak
inflation response. For the first three models, increasing the value of
[[rho].sub.[mu]] from 0.50 to 0.80 only changes the lagged inflation
peak from zero or one period after a monetary policy shock to one or two
periods. It is only when the level of money growth persistence is at an
unrealistically high level of [[rho].sub.[mu]] = 0.95 that those same
models generate a modest three- to four-period lag in the peak inflation
response. In the ideal model, a rise in the value of [[rho].sub.[mu]]
from 0.50 to 0.80 shifts the peak inflation response from three to five
periods following a monetary disturbance. This model also can generate
the seven-period inflation lag produced in Mankiw and Reis' (2002)
partial equilibrium model, but to do so, requires an implausibly high
value of [[rho].sub.[mu]] = 0.95.
C. Nominal Interest Rate Rule
A number of researchers contend that monetary policy is represented
better by a nominal interest rate rule than a money growth rule.
Bernanke and Blinder (1992), using a vector autogression model, find
that a short-term nominal interest rate is the best indicator of
monetary policy. Goodfriend (1993) argues that historically the
principal tool of the Federal Reserve has been a short-term nominal
interest rate. Strongin (1995) and Bernanke and Mihov (1998) claim that
money growth rates often are corrupted by the accommodation of nonpolicy
shocks, such as money demand shocks, by the Federal Reserve. Given these
arguments, we examine inflation's response to a monetary policy
shock in our DSGE model with sticky information when the monetary
authority follows a nominal interest rate rule.
[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]
We assume that the monetary authority now adheres to the nominal
interest rate rule specified in Equations (18) and (19). Following
Taylor (1993), the parameter values measuring the responsiveness of the
nominal interest rate to output, [[rho].sub.y], and inflation,
[[rho].sub.[pi]], are set to 0.5 and 1.5, respectively. (18)
Uncertainty, however, exists about the appropriate value of the
coefficient on the lagged interest rate, [omega]. We know that as the
value of co increases, monetary policy becomes more persistent, which
results in a larger long-run change in prices. Hence, inflation's
response to a monetary disturbance is examined for a range of values of
[omega] in our sticky information model.
Figure 6 examines the impact of a 1% expansionary nominal interest
rate shock on inflation in the following four models: a fixed
\\\\\ capital utilization, finite labor-supply elasticity, capital
adjustment costs, and no habit persistence model; a variable capital
utilization, finite labor-supply elasticity, capital adjustment costs,
and habit persistence model; a variable capital utilization, infinite
labor-supply elasticity, capital adjustment costs, and habit persistence
model; and a variable capital utilization, infinite labor-supply
elasticity, no capital adjustment costs, and habit persistence model.
The inflation response for each model is analyzed when [omega] = 0.00,
0.50, and 0.95. These values are chosen because [omega] = 0.00 is
consistent with Taylor's (1993) nominal interest rate rule, [omega]
= 0.50 is in the range of values for [omega] estimated in the
literature, and [omega] = 0.95 is an upper bound on the persistence of
the nominal interest rate. Our results show that inflation peaks
immediately after the monetary policy shock regardless of the model or
the value of [omega].
[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]
The absence of any lagged inflation peak in the model with a
nominal interest rate rule clearly differs from sticky information
models, such as Mankiw and Reis (2002), where money is the monetary
instrument. Under a nominal interest rate rule, monetary policy's
endogenous response to the inflation rate reduces the persistence of
money growth changes after a monetary policy shock. This lack of
persistence dampens future price increases, which causes an immediate
peak in inflation. CEE (2005) also examine the impact of specifying
monetary policy via a Taylor (1993)-style nominal interest rate rule.
Unlike our sticky information model, CEE's (2005) sticky price and
sticky wage model produces comparable inflation responses under both a
nominal interest rate rule and a money growth rule. This result suggests
that sticky information models may have to include nominal wage
frictions, such as Koenig's (1996, 1999, 2000) sticky information
wages, in order to generate similar inflation dynamics under both
monetary policy rules. Although further investigation is needed on the
impact of nominal interest rate rules, our results indicate that a DSGE
model with sticky information prices, like the standard sticky price
model, generates an immediate peak in inflation when the monetary
authority follows a nominal interest rate rule.
V. CONCLUSION
Most monetary models, including those with sticky prices, are
unable to produce a lagged and gradual response in the inflation rate
after a monetary policy shock. In a recent study, Mankiw and Reis (2002)
contend that inflation's response to a monetary policy shock is
sluggish because information on macroeconomic conditions disseminates
slowly through the economy. To account for the informational problem,
Mankiw and Reis (2002) specify a Fischer (1977)-style price-setting rule
(sticky information) in their model. This rule permits firms to set
their prices every period but adjust their expectations used in setting
those prices infrequently. Based on the results from a partial
equilibrium model, Mankiw and Reis (2002) conclude that New Keynesian
models should be specified routinely with sticky information rather than
with sticky prices.
This study analyzes inflation's response to a monetary policy
shock both in a Mankiw and Reis' (2002) partial equilibrium model
with sticky information and in a DSGE model with sticky information. Our
results show that the finding of a substantial lag between a monetary
policy action and the subsequent inflation peak in Mankiw and Reis'
(2002) sticky information model is sensitive to the parameterization of
the optimal price equation. Under some parameterizations of that
equation, the peak inflation response occurs only one period after the
monetary disturbance. The immediate rise in inflation is consistent with
findings from our DSGE model with sticky information, where the peak
inflation response occurs in the period immediately following the
monetary policy shock. A sensitivity analysis of our DSGE model reveals
that the peak inflation response can be delayed by introducing a number
of real rigidities into the model when money is the monetary instrument.
That sensitivity analysis, however, demonstrates that inflation peaks
immediately after a monetary policy shock when the nominal interest rate
is the monetary instrument.
Our results enable us to examine the differences between sticky
price models and sticky information models of price setting. In sticky
price models, inflation peaks immediately following a monetary policy
shock regardless of whether money or the nominal interest rate is the
instrument of monetary policy. In our sticky information model,
inflation also peaks immediately when the nominal interest rate is the
target of monetary policy but can be delayed when money is the monetary
instrument by introducing a number of real rigidities into the model.
Therefore, we conclude that the differences between inflation behavior
in sticky price and sticky information models depend critically on the
instrument of monetary policy and on the presence of significant real
rigidities.
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ABBREVIATIONS
CEE: Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans
DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
(1.) See Leeper, Sims, and Zha (1996) and CEE (1999) for an
examination of this issue.
(2.) Devereux and Yetman (2003) also use Fischer (1977)-style
pricing contracts in a similar monetary model. Koenig (1996, 1999,
2000), in contrast, examines a monetary model with Fischer (1977)--style
wage contracts.
(3.) Following the terminology in Ball and Romer (1990), real
rigidities are features that make relative prices less responsive to
changes in economic activity.
(4.) The positive movement between real marginal cost and output
assumes that business cycle movements are caused by aggregate demand
shocks.
(5.) Mankiw and Reis (2002) also argue that M, can be considered as
a variable encompassing other factors that shift aggregate demand.
Another alternative view is that the monetary authority targets the
level of nominal aggregate demand. Under that view, the Mankiw and Reis
(2002) model is really just examining the lag between a change in
nominal aggregate demand and a change in the price level after a
monetary policy shock.
(6.) These results are identical to Mankiw and Reis' (2002)
inflation response in figure IV of their article, except that they
examine the impact of a one-standard-deviation contractionary monetary
policy shock.
(7.) Nelson (1998) finds that only Fuhrer and Moore's (1995)
inflation persistence model is able to generate a lagged peak in the
inflation rate after a monetary disturbance. The price-setting rule in
that model, however, is not based on microfoundations as in DSGE models.
(8.) Efficient capital utilization by households implies that
[q.sub.t] = [delta]'([u.sub.t).
(9.) Our parameterization of [chi] = 1 is consistent with
Chirinko's (1993) empirical examination of investment functions.
(10.) Using a DSGE model with sticky prices. Chari, Kehoe, and
McGrattan (2000) also find that [gamma] is above 1.00.
(11.) This calibration of the elasticity of the marginal
depreciation rate with respect to the utilization rate, [zeta] = [u x
[delta]"(*)/[delta]'(*)], is consistent with estimates by Basu
and Kimball (1997).
(12.) The assumption of habit persistence in consumption slightly
modifies this log-linearized efficiency condition, but that change does
not affect the response of the real wage to movements in labor supply.
(13.) Our calibrated value of 0.6 for the habit persistence
parameter, b, is consistent with estimates in CEE (2005).
(14.) CEE (2005) generate that result in their model.
(15.) A key difference between the models is that CEE (2005)
contains nominal labor market frictions, while our model does not.
(16.) This model includes habit persistence because it allows for
an easy comparison with the third model, and without capital adjustment
costs, the inclusion of habit persistence has virtually no effect on
inflation dynamics.
(17.) Using the monetary base as the measure of money, Christiano
(1991) estimates [[rho].sub.[mu]] = 0.80 over the sample period
1952:Q2-1984:Q1. Christiano (1991) acknowledges that the high value of
[[rho].sub.[mu]] is being driven by the strong upward trend in the
monetary base over the 1950s and 1960s.
(18.) Any plausible calibration of [[rho].sub.y]. does not change
our results.
BENJAMIN D. KEEN, I would like to thank John Duca, William Gavin,
Evan Koenig, and Edward Nelson for many helpful discussions and
comments. This research also benefited from the comments of seminar
participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Kansas State
University, University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and
University of Texas--Arlington. An earlier version of this paper
circulated under the title, "Should Sticky Information Replace
Sticky Prices in New Keynesian Models of the Business Cycle?"
Keen: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of
Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019. Phone 1-405-325-5900, Fax 1-405-325-5842,
E-mail ben.keen@ou.edu