Iran Cannot Be Contained.

Williams, Ed

Iran Cannot Be Contained

By Bret Stephens, Deputy Editor, Wall Street Journal Editorial Page

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/iran-cannot-be-contained-15462

Reviewed by Ed Williams

Stephens asserts that the Obama administration's foreign policy-makers are coming around to the view of most of the media's writers on foreign policy--that a nuclear Iran is probably inevitable and that we must shift our thinking to containment and deterrence. They appear to agree that a nuclear strike by the U.S. or Israel is not an option to be considered, since, they say, it would merely delay the Iranian regime's nuclear programs, while turning much of Iran's population (including the opposition) against the West.

Many of the advocates of containment are former supporters of "engagement" with Iran--which others see as a decade or more of failed diplomacy, during which sanctions and inspections have failed to deter Iran's march towards nuclear weapons. The supporters of containment claim that it worked with the Soviet Union and with North Korea and therefore is likely to work with Iran. They do not consider the basic differences. Iran is a Shiite state, and Shiism is a cult, which glorifies martyrdom, even of the state itself, in order to achieve the will of Allah and the worldwide prevalence of their form of Islam. The regime in Iran operates from this point of view, not from a pragmatic determination of its own best interests. A nuclear Iran would be unlike any other past or present nuclear power--dangerous and unpredictable.

A nuclear Iran would be catastrophic to U.S. interests. Neither diplomacy nor sanctions are likely to stop Iran from making nuclear weapons. The remaining options are military strikes and efforts to bring about regime change. The closer Iran comes to building a nuclear weapon, the more pressure is felt by Israel to prevent this from happening. Of course, the U.S. also feels the pressure, but has only a feeble will to actually confront Iran with the possibility of a nuclear strike. The U.S. appears to be unwilling to take firm action to prevent the emergence of a nuclear Iran, which we would be unable to contain nor deter.

NOTE: For a different assessment of this issue, see "Deter Iran," which is also reviewed in this section. -Ed.