Global Trends 2005: A Transformed World.

Bullington, J.R.

GLOBAL TRENDS 2005: A Transformed World

http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

U.S. National Intelligence Council

Reviewed by J. R. Bullington

The National Intelligence Council--a body created to coordinate, and sometimes make public, the work of the 16 members of the "U.S. Intelligence Community"--has released its fourth quadrennial report assessing "how key global trends might develop" over the next 15-20 years to influence events and shape the world of the future. It is avowedly "not meant to be an exercise in prediction," but rather a means of "opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss" and of identifying "opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action."

This 120-page report paints an overall picture of declining American dominance in an increasingly multipolar system marked by the rise of China, India, and other countries as well as strengthened roles for several types of nonstate actors such as religious groups. The shift of relative economic power from West to East will continue, the report maintains, and global economic growth together with a population increase of 1.2 billion will strain energy, food, and water resources.

Moreover, the potential for armed conflict in the greater Middle East will grow, as will opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks with weapons of mass destruction. All of the foregoing trends are seen as "relative certainties."

Some key uncertainties identified in the report include:

* Whether a transition away from oil and gas is completed during the 2025 timeframe.

* Whether mercantilism stages a comeback, stifling global trade.

* Whether fears about a nuclear-armed Iran trigger an arms race.

* Whether Iraq stabilizes and the Arab-Israeli conflict is resolved.

* Whether Europe and Japan overcome the challenges posed by population decline.

* Whether Russia and China become more democratic or less so.

* Whether big powers work with multilateral institutions to adapt their structure and performance to the transformed geopolitical landscape.

* How quickly climate change occurs.

The report also offers four fictionalized scenarios that speculate on possible impacts of the identified trends, including a major hurricane that puts much of New York City under water.

Although some of the NIC's recent products--for example its pre-war assessment of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq--have not served to inspire great confidence in its collective judgment, this report is thoughtful and thought-provoking, even if it contains little that should be surprising to close observers of the current international scene. It merits the attention of policymakers and students of international affairs not only in the United States but around the world.