The Limits of Democratization: Climate, Intelligence, and Resource Distribution.

Lynn, Richard

The Limits of Democratization: Climate, Intelligence, and Resource Distribution

Tatu Vanhanen

Washington Summit Publishers, Augusta, GA, 2009

During the last thirty or so years, Professor Vanhanen has published a number of studies on the problem of why only some countries appear capable of democracy. In these previous works he has concluded that his "Index of Power Resources" (i.e. the degree to which power is dispersed throughout the population) is a major determinant democratization among nations. In this, his latest book, he extends this analysis to include climate and intelligence.

He begins with the observation made in the mid-eighteenth century by Montesquieu that countries in temperate latitudes appear more capable to achieving democratic government than are counties in the tropics. He concludes that this is still the case today. But why should this be? His theory is that (1) colder climates are a determinant of national IQs; (2) national IQs are a determinant of the Index of Power Resources, measured in several ways, e.g. the percentage of the population below the poverty line, and gap between the richest 10% and the poorest 10%; (3) the Index of Power Resources and intelligence are determinants of democratization.

The theory is tested and confirmed on 172 countries. The results are (1) colder climates measured as mean annual temperature are correlated with national IQs at 0.659; (2) national IQs are correlated with the Index of Power Resources at 0.754; (3) the Index of Power Resources (IPR) is correlated with the democratization at 0.813 (i.e. countries with more equal distributions of power resources have greater democratization); (3) national IQs are correlated with democratization at approximately 0.6.

The theory proposed to explain the association between national IQs and democratization is that "people in countries with low national IQs are not able to organize themselves, to take part in national politics, and to defend their rights against those in power as people in countries with higher national IQs" (p.270). The peoples of countries with low national IQs may want democracy, but the problem is that they are often not able to establish and maintain democracy. The result of this is that the quality of democracy in such countries tends to be much lower than in countries with higher national IQs. Because of significant differences in national IQs, it is not possible to achieve the same quality of democracy throughout the world.

The general pattern of the results is that the European and North East Asian peoples that have evolved over numerous generations in the harsh selective conditions of cold northern latitudes developed high intelligence and are therefore better able to achieve democratic government than peoples who evolved in hotter environments. The main exceptions to this general principle are Russia, China, and North Korea, but these can be explained by historical factors and Vanhanen predicts that these countries will evolve democratic governments. Russia is above the minimum level of democratization and its relatively low level of democratization is explicable by its relatively low level of IPR (Index of Power Resources).

His view that many countries are likely incapable of achieving and maintaining democracy has important implications for American and NATO foreign policy. A major aim of these has been to promote democracy throughout the world. An assumption of this policy objective is that all peoples would welcome democracy. But would they? This was the assumption that underpinned the invasion of Iraq, when the American public was assured that the Iraqi people were longing for democracy and would welcome the American and British liberation armies. The same assumption underlies the present war in Afghanistan. The experience in Iraq casts doubt on the validity of this assumption, and probably the same may be true for Afghanistan. Tatu Vanhanen's book is a timely challenge to the assumption that the people of all counties want and are capable of maintaining modern democratic government.