标题：Entering tennis men’s Grand Slams within the top-10 and its relationship with the fact of winning the tournament. [Acceder a los Grand Slams de tenis masculino desde el top-10 y su relación con el hecho de ganar el torneo].
期刊名称：RICYDE. Revista Internacional de Ciencias del Deporte. doi:10.5232/ricyde
印刷版ISSN：1885-3137
出版年度：2016
卷号：12
期号：46
页码：410-422
语种：English
出版社：Ramón Cantó Alcaraz (Publisher)
摘要：The purpose of this study was to analyse the relationship between entering tennis men’s singles Grand Slams within the top-10 ranking (i.e. title favourites) and the fact of winning the tournament. In order to differentiate between these players in a more powerful way than just considering the ranking number, a cluster algorithm was used to classify the players into two groups depending on their number of ranking points (i.e. higher level top-10 players vs. lower level top-10 players). The possible winners entering the tournament outside the top-10 (if any) were also considered. The sample comprised all the 92 men’s singles Grand Slams played between 1990 and 2012. As was expected, the majority of Grand Slams were won by players entering the tournament ranked in the top-10. However, the main result is contrary to the hypothesis that there would be significant differences in the number of titles won in favour of the players entering the tournament from the higher positions of the top-10 when comparing to those won by the players entering from the lower positions of the top-10. Several factors that may influence whether and to what extent a player is more or less favourite to win a Grand Slam title are presented in the discussion. Resumen El propósito del estudio fue analizar la relación entre acceder a los Grand Slam de tenis masculino desde el top-10 del ranking (favoritos al título) y el hecho de ganar el torneo. Con el objeto de diferenciar a estos jugadores de una forma más potente que simplemente considerando su número de ranking, se empleó un algoritmo cluster que clasificó a los jugadores en dos grupos en función del número de puntos de ranking (jugadores de mayor nivel dentro del top-10 v. jugadores de menor nivel del top-10). Los posibles ganadores del torneo accediendo al mismo desde posiciones fuera del top-10 (si los hubiera) fueron también considerados. La muestra comprendió los 92 torneos de Grand Slam masculinos jugados entre 1990 y 2012. Según lo esperado, la mayoría de Grand Slams fueron ganados por jugadores que accedieron al torneo dentro de los diez primeros clasificados del ranking. Sin embargo, el principal resultado es contrario a la hipótesis de que existirían diferencias significativas entre el número de títulos ganados en favor de los jugadores que accedían a los torneos desde las primeras posiciones del top-10 cuando se comparan con aquellos títulos ganados por los jugadores que accedían desde las posiciones más bajas del top-10. Múltiples factores que pueden influir en el hecho de que un jugador sea más o menos favorito para ganar un torneo de Grand Slam son discutidos. http://dx.doi.org/10.5232/ricyde2016.04605 References/referencias Arkes, J. (2010). Revisiting the hot hand theory with free throw data in a multivariate framework . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports , 6 (1), 1 – 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1198 Avugos, S., Köppen, J., Czienskowski, U., Raab, M., & Bar-Eli, M. (2013). The “hot hand” reconsidered: A meta-analytic approach. Psychology of Sport and Exercise , 14 (1), 21 – 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2012.07.005 Bane, M. K., Reid, M., & Morgan, S. (2014). Has player development in men’s tennis really changed? An historical rankings perspective. Journal of Sports Sciences , 32 (15), 1477 – 1484. Barnett, T., & Pollard, G. (2007). How the tennis court surface affects player performance and injuries. Medicine and Science in Tennis , 12 (1), 34 – 37. Baumeister, R. (1984). Choking under pressure: Self-consciousness and paradoxical effects of incentives on skillful performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 46 (3), 610 – 620. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.46.3.610 Bijleveld, E., Custers, R., & Aarts, H. (2011). When favourites fail: Tournament trophies as reward cues in tennis finals. Journal of Sports Sciences , 29 (13), 1463 – 1470. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2011.604679 Breznik, K. (2015). Revealing the best doubles teams and players in tennis history. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport , 15 (3), 1213 – 1226. Brouwers, J., De Bosscher, V., & Sotiriadou, P. (2012). An examination of the importance of performances in youth and junior competition as an indicator of later success in tennis. Sport Management Review , 15 , 461 – 475. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2012.05.002 Clarke, S., & Dyte, D. (2000). Using official ratings to simulate major tennis tournaments. International Transactions in Operational Research , 7 , 585–594. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-3995.2000.tb00218.x Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences . Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Crust, L., & Nesti, M. (2006). A review of psychological momentum in sports: why qualitative research is needed. Athletic Insight Journal , 8 , 1–15. Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1988). The flow experience and its significance for human psychology. In M. Csikszentmihalyi, & I. S. Csikszentmihalyi (Eds.), Optimal experience: Psychological studies of flow in consciousness (pp. 1536). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511621956.002 Dahl, G. (2012). A matrix-based ranking method with application to tennis. Linear algebra and its applications , 437 (1). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.laa.2012.02.002 Del Corral, J. (2009). Competitive Balance and Match Uncertainty in Grand Slam Tennis: Effects of Seeding System, Gender, and Court Surface. Journal of Sports Economics , 10(6), 563 – 581. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1527002509334650 Del Corral, J., & Prieto-Rodríguez, J. (2010). Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches? International Journal of Forecasting , 26 , 551 – 563. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.006 Dingle N., Knottenbelt, W., Spanias, D. (2013). On the (page) ranking of professional tennis players. Computer Performance Engineering , 4 , 237 – 247. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36781-6_17 Gayton, W. F., Very, M., & Hearns, J. (1993). Psychological momentum in team sports. Journal of Sport Behavior , 16 , 121 – 123. Goossens, D. R., Kempeneers, J., Koning, R. H., & Spieksma, F. C. R. (2015). Winning in straight sets helps in Grand Slam tennis. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport , 15 (3), 1007 – 1021. Hill, D. M., & Shaw, G. (2013). A qualitative examination of choking under pressure in team sport. Psychology of Sport and Exercise , 14 , 103–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2012.07.008 Hornery, D.J., Farrow, D., Mujika, I., & Young, W. (2007). An integrated physiological and performance profile of professional tennis. British Journal of Sports Medicine , 41 , 531 – 536. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bjsm.2006.031351 Iso-Ahola, S.E., & Dotson, C.O. (2014). Psychological momentum: Why success breeds success. Review of General Psychology , 18 (1), 19 – 33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0036406 Jordet, G. (2009). When superstars flop: Public status and choking under pressure in international soccer penalty shootouts. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology , 21 , 125–130. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10413200902777263 Klaassen, F., & Magnus, J. (2003). Forecasting the winner of a tennis match. European Journal of Operational Research , 148 , 257 – 267. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00682-3 Koehn, S., & Morris, T. (2014). The effect of performance context and skill level on the frequency of flow experiences. European Journal of Sport Science , 14 (S1), S478 – 86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2012.718364 Koning, R.H. (2005). Home advantage and speed skating: Evidence from individual data. Journal of Sports Sciences , 23 , 417–427. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640410400021625 Koning, R.H. (2011). Home advantage in professional tennis. Journal of Sports Sciences , 29 (1), 19–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2010.516762 Kuper, G., Sierksma, G., & Spieksma, F. (2014). Using tennis rankings to predict performance in upcoming tournaments . (SOM Research Report; Vol. 14034-EEF). Groningen: University of Groningen, SOM research school. Lewit, C. (2014). The Secrets of Spanish Tennis. ITF Coaching and Sport Science Review , 64 (22), 9 – 10. Little, B.C. (2014). The Hot Hand and Psychological Momentum as Adaptive Beliefs in Sport . Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations. Paper 9033. Ma, S.M., Liu, C.C., Tan, Y., & Ma, S.C. (2013). Winning matches in Grand Slam men's singles: An analysis of player performance-related variables from 1991 to 2008. Journal of Sports Sciences , 31 (11), 1147 – 1155. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.775472 Marsh, H. W., & Jackson, S. A. (1999). Flow experience in sport: Construct validation of multidimensional, hierarchical state and trait responses. Structural Equation Modeling , 6 , 343 – 371. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10705519909540140 O'Donoghue, P. G., & Brown, E. (2008). The Importance of Service in Grand Slam Singles Tennis. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport , 8 (3), 70 – 78. Pluim, B., & Crespo, M. (2001). Ten ways to prevent jet lag. ITF Coaching and Sport Science Review , 25 , 8 – 9. Radicchi, F. (2011). Who Is the Best Player Ever? A Complex Network Analysis of the History of Professional Tennis. PLoS ONE , 6 (2): e17249. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017249 Reid, M., Crespo, M., & Santilli, L. (2009). Importance of the ITF junior girls’ circuit in the development of women professional tennis players. Journal of Sports Sciences , 27 , 1443 – 1448. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640410903037714 Reid, M., Crespo, M., Santilli, L., Miley, D., & Dimmock, J. (2007). The importance of the International Tennis Federation’s junior boys’ circuit in the development of professional tennis players. Journal of Sports Sciences , 25 , 667 – 672. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640410600811932 Reid, M., Morgan, S., Churchill, T., & Bane, M. K. (2014). Rankings in professional men’s tennis: a rich but underutilized source of information. Journal of Sports Sciences , 32 (10), 986 – 992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.876086 Reid, M., & Morris, C. (2011). Ranking benchmarks of top 100 players in men’s professional tennis. European Journal of Sport Science , 13 , 1 – 6. Scheibehenne, B., & Brofer, A. (2007). Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition. International Journal of Forecasting , 23 , 415–426. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.006 Schooler, A. (2015). Australian Open: A look back at players who have caused surprises at the opening Grand slam of the year. Retrieved from: http://www.skysports.com/tennis/australian-open/news/31851/9644710/australian-open--a-look-back-at-players-who-have-caused-surprises-at-the-opening-grand-slam-tournament-of-the-season Tudor, P. B., Zecic, M., & Matkovic, B. (2014). Differences between 2010 and 2011 performance indicators of tennis play at the Grand Slam tournaments. Kinesiology , 46 (1), 101 – 106.
其他摘要：The purpose of this study was to analyse the relationship between entering tennis men’s singles Grand Slams within the top-10 ranking (i.e. title favourites) and the fact of winning the tournament. In order to differentiate between these players in a more powerful way than just considering the ranking number, a cluster algorithm was used to classify the players into two groups depending on their number of ranking points (i.e. higher level top-10 players vs. lower level top-10 players). The possible winners entering the tournament outside the top-10 (if any) were also considered. The sample comprised all the 92 men’s singles Grand Slams played between 1990 and 2012. As was expected, the majority of Grand Slams were won by players entering the tournament ranked in the top-10. However, the main result is contrary to the hypothesis that there would be significant differences in the number of titles won in favour of the players entering the tournament from the higher positions of the top-10 when comparing to those won by the players entering from the lower positions of the top-10. Several factors that may influence whether and to what extent a player is more or less favourite to win a Grand Slam title are presented in the discussion. Resumen El propósito del estudio fue analizar la relación entre acceder a los Grand Slam de tenis masculino desde el top-10 del ranking (favoritos al título) y el hecho de ganar el torneo. Con el objeto de diferenciar a estos jugadores de una forma más potente que simplemente considerando su número de ranking, se empleó un algoritmo cluster que clasificó a los jugadores en dos grupos en función del número de puntos de ranking (jugadores de mayor nivel dentro del top-10 v. jugadores de menor nivel del top-10). Los posibles ganadores del torneo accediendo al mismo desde posiciones fuera del top-10 (si los hubiera) fueron también considerados. La muestra comprendió los 92 torneos de Grand Slam masculinos jugados entre 1990 y 2012. Según lo esperado, la mayoría de Grand Slams fueron ganados por jugadores que accedieron al torneo dentro de los diez primeros clasificados del ranking. Sin embargo, el principal resultado es contrario a la hipótesis de que existirían diferencias significativas entre el número de títulos ganados en favor de los jugadores que accedían a los torneos desde las primeras posiciones del top-10 cuando se comparan con aquellos títulos ganados por los jugadores que accedían desde las posiciones más bajas del top-10. Múltiples factores que pueden influir en el hecho de que un jugador sea más o menos favorito para ganar un torneo de Grand Slam son discutidos. http://dx.doi.org/10.5232/ricyde2016.04605 References/referencias Arkes, J. (2010). Revisiting the hot hand theory with free throw data in a multivariate framework . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports , 6 (1), 1 – 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1198 Avugos, S., Köppen, J., Czienskowski, U., Raab, M., & Bar-Eli, M. (2013). The “hot hand” reconsidered: A meta-analytic approach. Psychology of Sport and Exercise , 14 (1), 21 – 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2012.07.005 Bane, M. K., Reid, M., & Morgan, S. (2014). Has player development in men’s tennis really changed? An historical rankings perspective. Journal of Sports Sciences , 32 (15), 1477 – 1484. Barnett, T., & Pollard, G. (2007). How the tennis court surface affects player performance and injuries. Medicine and Science in Tennis , 12 (1), 34 – 37. Baumeister, R. (1984). Choking under pressure: Self-consciousness and paradoxical effects of incentives on skillful performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 46 (3), 610 – 620. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.46.3.610 Bijleveld, E., Custers, R., & Aarts, H. (2011). When favourites fail: Tournament trophies as reward cues in tennis finals. Journal of Sports Sciences , 29 (13), 1463 – 1470. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2011.604679 Breznik, K. (2015). Revealing the best doubles teams and players in tennis history. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport , 15 (3), 1213 – 1226. Brouwers, J., De Bosscher, V., & Sotiriadou, P. (2012). An examination of the importance of performances in youth and junior competition as an indicator of later success in tennis. Sport Management Review , 15 , 461 – 475. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2012.05.002 Clarke, S., & Dyte, D. (2000). Using official ratings to simulate major tennis tournaments. International Transactions in Operational Research , 7 , 585–594. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-3995.2000.tb00218.x Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences . Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Crust, L., & Nesti, M. (2006). A review of psychological momentum in sports: why qualitative research is needed. Athletic Insight Journal , 8 , 1–15. Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1988). The flow experience and its significance for human psychology. In M. Csikszentmihalyi, & I. S. Csikszentmihalyi (Eds.), Optimal experience: Psychological studies of flow in consciousness (pp. 1536). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511621956.002 Dahl, G. (2012). A matrix-based ranking method with application to tennis. Linear algebra and its applications , 437 (1). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.laa.2012.02.002 Del Corral, J. (2009). Competitive Balance and Match Uncertainty in Grand Slam Tennis: Effects of Seeding System, Gender, and Court Surface. Journal of Sports Economics , 10(6), 563 – 581. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1527002509334650 Del Corral, J., & Prieto-Rodríguez, J. (2010). Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches? International Journal of Forecasting , 26 , 551 – 563. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.006 Dingle N., Knottenbelt, W., Spanias, D. (2013). On the (page) ranking of professional tennis players. Computer Performance Engineering , 4 , 237 – 247. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36781-6_17 Gayton, W. F., Very, M., & Hearns, J. (1993). Psychological momentum in team sports. Journal of Sport Behavior , 16 , 121 – 123. Goossens, D. R., Kempeneers, J., Koning, R. H., & Spieksma, F. C. R. (2015). Winning in straight sets helps in Grand Slam tennis. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport , 15 (3), 1007 – 1021. Hill, D. M., & Shaw, G. (2013). A qualitative examination of choking under pressure in team sport. Psychology of Sport and Exercise , 14 , 103–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2012.07.008 Hornery, D.J., Farrow, D., Mujika, I., & Young, W. (2007). An integrated physiological and performance profile of professional tennis. British Journal of Sports Medicine , 41 , 531 – 536. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bjsm.2006.031351 Iso-Ahola, S.E., & Dotson, C.O. (2014). Psychological momentum: Why success breeds success. Review of General Psychology , 18 (1), 19 – 33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0036406 Jordet, G. (2009). When superstars flop: Public status and choking under pressure in international soccer penalty shootouts. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology , 21 , 125–130. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10413200902777263 Klaassen, F., & Magnus, J. (2003). Forecasting the winner of a tennis match. European Journal of Operational Research , 148 , 257 – 267. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00682-3 Koehn, S., & Morris, T. (2014). The effect of performance context and skill level on the frequency of flow experiences. European Journal of Sport Science , 14 (S1), S478 – 86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2012.718364 Koning, R.H. (2005). Home advantage and speed skating: Evidence from individual data. Journal of Sports Sciences , 23 , 417–427. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640410400021625 Koning, R.H. (2011). Home advantage in professional tennis. Journal of Sports Sciences , 29 (1), 19–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2010.516762 Kuper, G., Sierksma, G., & Spieksma, F. (2014). Using tennis rankings to predict performance in upcoming tournaments . (SOM Research Report; Vol. 14034-EEF). Groningen: University of Groningen, SOM research school. Lewit, C. (2014). The Secrets of Spanish Tennis. ITF Coaching and Sport Science Review , 64 (22), 9 – 10. Little, B.C. (2014). The Hot Hand and Psychological Momentum as Adaptive Beliefs in Sport . Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations. Paper 9033. Ma, S.M., Liu, C.C., Tan, Y., & Ma, S.C. (2013). Winning matches in Grand Slam men's singles: An analysis of player performance-related variables from 1991 to 2008. Journal of Sports Sciences , 31 (11), 1147 – 1155. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.775472 Marsh, H. W., & Jackson, S. A. (1999). Flow experience in sport: Construct validation of multidimensional, hierarchical state and trait responses. Structural Equation Modeling , 6 , 343 – 371. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10705519909540140 O'Donoghue, P. G., & Brown, E. (2008). The Importance of Service in Grand Slam Singles Tennis. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport , 8 (3), 70 – 78. Pluim, B., & Crespo, M. (2001). Ten ways to prevent jet lag. ITF Coaching and Sport Science Review , 25 , 8 – 9. Radicchi, F. (2011). Who Is the Best Player Ever? A Complex Network Analysis of the History of Professional Tennis. PLoS ONE , 6 (2): e17249. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017249 Reid, M., Crespo, M., & Santilli, L. (2009). Importance of the ITF junior girls’ circuit in the development of women professional tennis players. Journal of Sports Sciences , 27 , 1443 – 1448. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640410903037714 Reid, M., Crespo, M., Santilli, L., Miley, D., & Dimmock, J. (2007). The importance of the International Tennis Federation’s junior boys’ circuit in the development of professional tennis players. Journal of Sports Sciences , 25 , 667 – 672. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640410600811932 Reid, M., Morgan, S., Churchill, T., & Bane, M. K. (2014). Rankings in professional men’s tennis: a rich but underutilized source of information. Journal of Sports Sciences , 32 (10), 986 – 992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.876086 Reid, M., & Morris, C. (2011). Ranking benchmarks of top 100 players in men’s professional tennis. European Journal of Sport Science , 13 , 1 – 6. Scheibehenne, B., & Brofer, A. (2007). Predicting Wimbledon 2005 tennis results by mere player name recognition. International Journal of Forecasting , 23 , 415–426. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.006 Schooler, A. (2015). Australian Open: A look back at players who have caused surprises at the opening Grand slam of the year. Retrieved from: http://www.skysports.com/tennis/australian-open/news/31851/9644710/australian-open--a-look-back-at-players-who-have-caused-surprises-at-the-opening-grand-slam-tournament-of-the-season Tudor, P. B., Zecic, M., & Matkovic, B. (2014). Differences between 2010 and 2011 performance indicators of tennis play at the Grand Slam tournaments. Kinesiology , 46 (1), 101 – 106.
关键词：ATP world tour;professional tennis;performance analysis;top-10 ranking
