期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Universität Heidelberg, Department of Economics
出版年度：2016
出版社：Universität Heidelberg, Department of Economics
摘要：We analyze the determinants of average individual in.ation uncertainty and dis- agreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decompo- sition of in.ation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic condi- tions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations di.er qualitatively. In particular, average individual in.ation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods
关键词：In.ation uncertainty; Disagreement; Density forecast; Central banking; ; Survey of Professional Forecasters
