期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Universität Heidelberg, Department of Economics
出版年度：2016
出版社：Universität Heidelberg, Department of Economics
摘要：This paper studies the e.ects of bilateral foreign aid on con.ict escalation and de-escalation. We make three major contributions. First, we combine data on civil wars with data on low level con.icts in a new ordinal measure capturing the two-sided and multifaceted nature of con.ict. Second, we develop a novel empirical framework. We propose a dynamic ordered probit estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity and corrects for endogeneity. Third, we identify the causal e.ect of foreign aid on con.ict by predicting bilateral aid .ows based on electoral outcomes of donor countries that are exogenous to recipients. We establish that the e.ect of foreign aid on the various transition probabilities is heterogeneous and can be substantial. Receiving bilateral aid raises the chances of escalating from small con.ict to armed con.ict, but we find no evidence that aid ignites con.ict in truly peaceful countries
关键词：con.ict; foreign aid; political economy; dynamic ordered panel data
