期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2016
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：In this paper we analyse the role of the international trade network for the strength of theglobal recession across countries. The novelty of our paper is the use of value-added trade data tocapture the importance of trade network structure. We estimate with BMA techniques how farnetwork indicators measuring interlinkages in terms of value added trade has explanatory power bothfor the length and the depth of the recent crisis once we control for pre-crisis macroeconomicfundamentals. Our main findings are that the macroeconomic control variables with the strongestexplanatory power for the length and the depth of the crisis are the growth rates of credit and of thereal effective exchange rate in the pre-crisis period and, though to a lesser extent, GDP and inflationgrowth over the same period and pre-crisis foreign exchange reserves. Government debt, the GVCparticipation index and net foreign assets have very little explanatory power in the BMA estimations.The models’ performance increases when we introduce interaction terms of credit growth with othervulnerability measures. The results demonstrate that the coincidence of vulnerabilities matters a lot.Credit growth deepens the crisis mainly if accompanied with pre-crisis GDP growth or low reserves,while the crisis tends to be longer if credit growth has led to large leverage or the accumulation of netforeign liabilities. Finally, we find evidence that value added trade linkages have an impact on theseverity of the crisis. While the increasing connectivity or openness of the country makes the crisislonger, the same characteristics of the neighbours makes it also deeper. The tendency to interact withalready connected countries lowers or increases the impact of the crisis depending on the position ofthe country. Altogether we have mixed results on the direct trade channel, but we demonstrate theimportance of network structure beyond the countries’ own openness. In addition, we are also able toimprove results by using gross value added instead of gross trade data
关键词：Network indicators; value added trade; crisis indicators; Bayesian model averaging;WIOD.
