期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2016
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We investigate the eects of scal policy communication on the propagation ofgovernment spending shocks. To this aim, we propose a new index measuring thecoordination eects of policy communication on private agents' expectations. Thisindex is based on the disagreement amongst US professional forecasters about futuregovernment spending. The underlying intuition is that a clear scal policy commu-nication can coalesce expectations, reducing disagreement. Results indicate that, intimes of low disagreement, the output response to scal spending innovations is positiveand large, mainly due to private investment response. Conversely, periods of elevateddisagreement are characterised by muted output response.
关键词：Disagreement; Government spending shock; Fiscal transmission mecha-;nism.
