期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2016
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：A number of studies document the prominent role of global factors in domesticinflation developments (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007; Ciccarelli and Mojon, 2010). Inthis paper we investigate global dimensions of advanced economy inflation. We estimateopen-economy Phillips curves for 19 advanced economies. We include backwardandforward-looking survey measures of inflation expectations and augment Phillipscurves with global factors including global economic slack, global inflation and commodityprices. Our results provide little support for the existence of direct effects ofglobal economic slack on domestic inflation. Moreover, the results suggest that theimportance of global inflation in forecasting domestic inflation has its roots solely in itsability to capture slow-moving trends in inflation rates. In the Phillips curve contextmuch the same role is performed by domestic forward-looking inflation expectations.With the exception of commodity prices therefore our results reveal little reason toinclude global factors into traditional reduced form Phillips curves
关键词：inflation; Phillips curve; global economic slack; global inflation; forecasting;advanced economies
