期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2016
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical componentsin GDP, credit volumes and house prices for the U.S. and the ve largest Europeaneconomies. With the exception of Germany, we nd large and long cycles in credit and houseprices, which are highly correlated with a medium-term component in GDP cycles. Di erencesacross countries in the length and size of cycles appear to be related to the propertiesof national housing markets. The precision of pseudo real-time estimates of credit and houseprice cycles is roughly comparable to that of GDP cycles
