期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2016
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：Even when the policy rate is not at the effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility thatthe policy rate will become constrained by the ELB in the future lowers today’s inflation bycreating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empiricallyrich model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, we find that the tail riskinduced by the ELB causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 percent by as muchas 45 basis points at the economy’s risky steady state. Our model suggests that achievingthe inflation target may be more difficult now than before the Great Recession, if the recentELB experience has led households and firms to revise up their estimate of the ELB frequency
