期刊名称：Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
印刷版ISSN：1068-5502
出版年度：2016
卷号：41
期号：1
页码：25-41
出版社：WAEA
摘要：While nearly instantaneous commodity futures price information provides price forecasts fornational markets, many market participants are interested in forecasts of local cash prices.Expected basis estimates are often used to convert futures prices into local price forecasts. Thisstudy considers basis patterns in the northern U.S. hard red spring and hard red winter wheatmarkets. Using data on basis values across 215 grain-handling facilities, we empirically testthe forecasting capabilities of numerous basis models. Contrary to basis models developed forother U.S. regions, we show that recent futures prices, protein content, and harvest informationare more important for accurate basis forecasts than historical basis averages. The preferredbasis models are used to develop an automated web-based basis forecasting tool, available athttp://wheatbasis.montana.edu.
关键词：basis; forecast; protein; spring wheat; winter wheat
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