摘要：Air travel demand estimation is vital for airlines and government authorities to make reasonable decisions. However, when estimating the demand, air passenger volume has been frequently employed as an instrumental variable, although there exists a big deviation between them. This inappropriate practice will lead to misleading conclusions and seri- ously perverse decisions. This paper, based on the partial adjustment theory, proposes a new method to distinguish and estimate air travel demand from air passenger volume. A multi-dimensional variable selection method is originally proposed and a new estimation method is advanced to solve the problem of endogeneity and serial correlation. The pro- posed model is finally applied to estimate and analyze the aggregate air travel demand in China, the results show that air travel demand in China is enjoying a big potential. The model may also be applied to study road, rail and ocean transportation demand.
关键词：air travel demand estimation; air travel volume; partial adjustment theory
