文章基本信息
- 标题：Ein integriertes Modell zur Schätzung von Arbeitskräfteangebot und Bevölkerung
- 本地全文：下载
- 作者：Fuchs, Johann ; Söhnlein, Doris ; Weber, Brigitte 等
- 期刊名称：IAB-Forschungsbericht
- 出版年度：2016
- 卷号：2016
- 期号：1
- 页码：1
- 出版社：Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung
- 摘要：This paperisconcernedwiththeprojectionofthepopulationinGermanyandthelaboursupplytill2060inanintegratedmodel.AnewandredesignedpopulationprojectionoftheIAB ispresentedandalsolabourparticipationisre-estimated.Forthepopulationforecastalternativeapproachestopreviousdeterministiccomputationsareused,whichallowcom-pletelyintegratedsimulationsandthepossibilitytoillustratetheuncertaintiesintheformofconfidence intervals.In contrasttootherpopulationforecasts(e.g.the13thcoordinatedpopulationprojectionof theFederalStatisticalOffice)Germansandforeignersaredistinguishedhere,becausetheemploymentbehaviorissignificantlydifferent,especiallyforwomen.Sincethepopu-lation modelisanessentialelementoftheprojectionofthelaboursupply,modificationinthepopulationstructuree.g.causedbymigration,changestheweightingcompletely.The-reforethedifferentiationaccordingtoGermans/foreignersshouldsignificantlyimprovetheprecisionoftheprojection.The birthratecanbepredictedfairlyaccuratelybyhistoricaldata:Theconfidencebeltisrelativelynarrow.Thesituationissimilarforthedevelopmentofmortality.Muchmorediffi-culties preparesthecreationofalong-termmostlikelycourseofmigration,whichprobablyis themostuncertaincomponenttopredict.InsomerespectsthelastIABpopulationpro-jection (Fuchs/Söhnlein2013),forwhichmigrationwaspartiallytreatedasanendogenousvariable,iscontinued.WiththefindingstheretheentriesandexitsofGermansandfor-eignersarecomputedseparately.Thereforethenetmigrationisnotgiveninvariants,butresultsfromtheestimates.The participationrateisestimatedinanintegratedmodelingapproachtogetherwiththepopulation developmentwiththehelpofpotentialparticipationrates.Thesepotentialparti-cipation ratesincludebesidestheworkingpopulationalsothehiddenreserve–themaxi-mum oflabourmarketparticipationisestimated.Thecalculatedlabourforceisthelaboursupplyunderfullemploymentconditions.Thedeclineisalmostsure,butthereappearsan obviousuncertaintyabouttheprogress.Duetothedivisionaccordingtoage,sexandGermans/foreignersitwasnecessarytoestimate40equationsintotal.The demographictrendsareknownandconfirmed:Thepopulationdecreaseandaging,aresultofthelowbirthrates,willstillbelimitedinthenextyearsduetothecurrenthighlevelof netmigration,butarenotreversibleonthelongterm.The populationdevelopmentinfluencesthelabourforcepotentialdirectly.Inspiteofincrea-sing labourmarketparticipation(especiallyofwomenandelders)thelabourforcepotentialwill probablydecreaseuntil2060.Thedeclineofthepopulationofworkingageduetotheagingprocesscannotbecompensatedbyhigherparticipationrates.Buttheavailablemodel simulationsalsoshowsignificantuncertainties.
