出版社：Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung
摘要：This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of „economy 4.0“,the digitalisation of the economy as a whole and not only in industrial productionprocesses. These developments involve considerable challenges at enterprise andpolitical level. The five-step scenario analysis begins with the impacts of increasedinvestments of enterprises in equipment (1) and of the state in the network infrastructure(2) on the overall economy and the labour market. On this basis we furthermodel the consequent personnel and material costs of the enterprises (3) and achanged pattern of demand for occupations and skills (4). In a further scenario theeffects on the labour market of a potentially increasing demand for goods (5) aretaken into consideration. The cumulative effects of these five partial scenarios are The results show that economy 4.0 will accelerate the structural change towards more services. In this process labour force movements between branches, occupations and job requirements are much larger than the change of the number of employees in total. The turnover on the labour market are accompanied by an increasing value added which is leading not only to more economic assets but also – due to higher requirements for the labour force – to higher aggregate wages. The underlying assumptions have a positive effect on the economic development. But this also means that, given a delayed realization, the assumptions are turning against the business location Germany: We will export less and demand more ‘new’ goods from abroad. In order to analyze the effects of digitization on the future occupational structure, but also to improve the knowledge about the economic interdependencies, further advances of the QuBe-E4.0 project are planned. Danksagung: Wir danken Britta Matthes sowie zahlreichen Auditorien bei Vorstellungen der Vorgängerstudie Wolter u.a. (2015) für Kommentare.
