出版社：Economic Laboratory for Transition Research Podgorica
摘要：This paper analyzes the relationship between the GDP and thenet migration using the comparative approach represented by thepanel data and Bayesian analysis. The panel data analysis ismade for the period 1991-2013 in Central and Eastern Europeancountries (CEECs): Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ukraine, Poland,Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary. The Bayesianapproach is utilized for checking whether Poland and Ukrainehave similar expectation of GDP and net migration during 1991-2013. A negative correlation was recorded between net migrationand the real GDP rate in the previous period. During the period of1991-1994 corresponding to transition, each 10 percent increasein the GDP rate caused a 0.6 percent decrease in netmigration at the significance level of 5%. A higher increase wasregistered in the economic depression (1994-2000), while thegreater decrease, with 4.58 percentage points for each 10 percent in the GDP rate, was observed for the period of economicboom. Computing the differences between Ukraine and Poland,we obtained the expectations of -17.7187 and 15.745 with ahigher variance of the estimator for Ukraine.
关键词：GDP;net migration;panel data;Bayesian test;Central and Eastern European countries
