期刊名称：Working papers. Dipartimento di Economia Pubblica
印刷版ISSN：1974-2940
出版年度：2009
期号：11
出版社：Sapienza Università di Roma, Dipartimento di Economia Pubblica
摘要：A common interpretation of the vicissitudes of the EMS holds that the credibility of EMS parities remained very high at least up to the Danish referendum of June 1992. In contrast, we argue that capital inflows into higher-inflation countries and falling interest differentials can coexist with the expectation of a realignment, provided international investors are confident in their "exit speed", i.e. in their ability to close or hedge open positions in good time. The uncovered interest parity is inapplicable, we maintain, to all cases in which the monetary authorities' expected behaviour is such as to justify the aforesaid confidence.
