摘要：This study aimed to explore the evolution of broadband Internet penetration in Brazil in 2020 and the impacts on the population and the on Brazilian economy. For this, it was used the Delphi Method of consultation with experts, in which participated 98 respondents in Round 1 and 72 respondents in Round 2. The results indicated that there will be an increase in broadband penetration in all economic sectors. However, such expansion will depend on the lower cost of service. For 60% of specialists, the cost of broadband Internet will be a critical factor for expansion of penetration. The technology that will have more growth in the type of broadband Internet connection by 2020, indicated by 33% of specialists will be Connecting via cable modem or wireless (offered by cable TV operators) , followed by Connection via WiMAX networks , with 31% of indications. For 69% of specialists, the main impact on the economy by 2020 will be the increase of the Gross Domestic Product of Brazil, and the principal impacts of broadband Internet penetration in the Brazilian population will be the Increase of Productivity of Individuals , indicated by 49% of experts, and Improving the Quality of Life , indicated by 46%.
关键词：Internet Banda Larga ; Técnica Delphi ; Prospecção do Futuro
