摘要：In work the nonlinear mathematical model describing dynamics of voters of pro- government and oppositional parties is offered.The case when coefficients of attraction of votes of pro-government and oppositional parties are exponential increasing functions from elections to elections is considered. Cauchy's task for nonlinear system of the differential equations with variable coefficients of model is solved by means of the program Matlab environment. Cases as maximum and certain voter turnout on elections, and also the set falsification of voices of opposition party are considered. The following qualitatively various results are received:- despite superiority of coefficient of attraction of votes of opposition party over pro-governmental, due to administrative impact on voters of opposition party from government institutions, the pro-government party will win the next elections;- despite superiority of the voters supporting opposition party by the election day due to the best mobilization on elections of the voters, the pro-government party will win the next elections;- despite superiority of the voters supporting opposition party by the election day at an identical voter turnout on elections, due to a certain falsification of elections, the pro-government party will win the next elections;- the opposition party, despite the best appearance on elections of voters of pro-government party and a certain falsification of elections, nevertheless will win the next elections.
关键词：nonlinear model of elections; the ruling party; the opposition; falsification; voter turnout
