期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2016
卷号：113
期号：50
页码：E8089-E8095
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1608242113
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：SignificanceEarly-warning indicators (EWIs), statistical metrics of system resilience, have been hypothesized to provide advance warning of sudden shifts in ecosystems, or so-called "regime shifts." Here we tested this hypothesis for four commonly used EWIs. We used empirical time series from five freshwater ecosystems with documented sudden, persistent transitions hypothesized to represent critical transitions. EWIs were detected in several of these long-term records, and in some cases several years before the transition; however, these EWIs varied in reliability, and agreement between indicators was low. Moreover, their applicability was strongly limited by the requirement for ecosystem-specific knowledge of transition-generating mechanisms and their drivers to choose relevant state variables for analysis. Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments. The generalizability of EWIs for detecting critical transitions in empirical time series of natural aquatic ecosystems remains largely untested, however. Here we assessed four commonly used EWIs on long-term datasets of five freshwater ecosystems that have experienced sudden, persistent transitions and for which the relevant ecological mechanisms and drivers are well understood. These case studies were categorized by three mechanisms that can generate critical transitions between alternative states: competition, trophic cascade, and intraguild predation. Although EWIs could be detected in most of the case studies, agreement among the four indicators was low. In some cases, EWIs were detected considerably ahead of the transition. Nonetheless, our results show that at present, EWIs do not provide reliable and consistent signals of impending critical transitions despite using some of the best routinely monitored freshwater ecosystems. Our analysis strongly suggests that a priori knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving ecosystem transitions is necessary to identify relevant state variables for successfully monitoring EWIs.
关键词：competition ; intraguild predation ; trophic cascade ; time series ; resilience indicators
