期刊名称：International Business & Economics Research Journal
印刷版ISSN：1535-0754
电子版ISSN：2157-9393
出版年度：2007
卷号：6
期号：4
语种：English
出版社：The Clute Institute for Academic Research
摘要：This study constructs an empirical model of the volatility of the TL/US$ exchange rate for the Turkish economy during the post-2001 crisis period ending on August 2006. Employing the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) estimation methodology of econometrics, we find that the volatility of a given shock to the exchange rate is highly persistent and the successive forecasts of the conditional variance converge to the steady state quite slowly. In addition, the conditional variance of the exchange rate reacts differently to a given negative shock than to a positive shock with equal magnitude. The plot of the News Impact Curve indicates that a foreign investor would face a higher uncertainty when there is an unanticipated increase in the exchange rate when compared to an unanticipated decrease.
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