期刊名称：Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
电子版ISSN：1600-0870
出版年度：2016
卷号：68
期号：1
DOI：10.3402/tellusa.v68.27885
摘要：Abstract Knowledge on the contribution of observations to forecast accuracy is crucial for the refinement of observing and data assimilation systems. Several recent publications highlighted the benefits of efficiently approximating this observation impact using adjoint methods or ensembles. This study proposes a modification of an existing method for computing observation impact in an ensemble-based data assimilation and forecasting system and applies the method to a pre-operational, convective-scale regional modelling environment. Instead of the analysis, the modified approach uses observation-based verification metrics to mitigate the effect of correlation between the forecast and its verification norm. Furthermore, a peculiar property in the distribution of individual observation impact values is used to define a reliability indicator for the accuracy of the impact approximation. Applying this method to a 3-day test period shows that a well-defined observation impact value can be approximated for most observation types and the reliability indicator successfully depicts where results are not significant.
关键词：data assimilation ; forecast sensitivity to observations ; FSO
