标题：Projeção Demográfica De Pequenas Áreas Integrada A Projeções Econômicas: Um Estudo De Caso A Partir De Cenários De Migração Na Região Do Alto Paraopeba, Minas Gerais
摘要：Normal 0 21 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";} This paper proposes a methodology to project population growth for small areas facing high economic growth rates. It is used as case study the Alto Paraopeba Valley in Brazil, a region which will face high growth rates in the following two decades due to investments in mining and in the steel industry. These economic changes will bring high employment generation and thus affect the demographic dynamics in the region, particularly through high in-migration rates, and will change urban and regional development patterns, particularly by imposing further pressures on the already fragile infrastructure (e.g., water supply, sanitation, transportation system and housing) and social services (health, education). We propose a methodology which belongs to a set of projection techniques known as “ratio methods” which aims to forecast pressures from population growth, at the region al and municipal levels, and which is sensible to incorporate employment scenarios. The results will be interpreted at light of the literature on the linkages between demographic dynamics, economic growth and development. In particular, we discuss the need to improve methodologies in demographic analysis which incorporate economic scenarios and their impacts on migration, the population component most sensible to varying regional economic scenarios.
关键词：dinâmica demográfica;migração;projeção de pequenas áreas;Alto Paraopeba.
