首页    期刊浏览 2025年02月20日 星期四
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:Effective Approaches to Control the Epidemic Based on the Improved SIR Model
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Shuai Shao ; Hao Li ; Yuanbiao Zhang
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Management and Sustainability
  • 印刷版ISSN:1925-4725
  • 电子版ISSN:1925-4733
  • 出版年度:2016
  • 卷号:6
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:154
  • DOI:10.5539/jms.v6n2p154
  • 出版社:Canadian Center of Science and Education
  • 摘要:

    In this paper, we have established a SECADI model on the basis of the traditional epidemic model and under the consideration of factors such as the spread of the disease, the quantity of the medicine in need, the medicine production speedetc. We have improved the crowd classification standard and the spread styledifferential equation model in classical SIR model. We distinguished the crowd into six categories, including the susceptible, the exposed, the curable, the advanced, the dead and the immune, and we established integrated transformation relationships between them after taking control measures through qualitative and quantitative method, and then derive the adequate epidemic differential equation model before taking controls. We applied the method of computer simulation to solve the model, worked out uncertain parameters with the method of parameter identification, and we verified the validity and accuracy of the SECADI model. Meanwhile, we calculated with the actual data of Ebola in the epidemic area in WesternAfrica, simulated the evolution of the epidemic, analyze and offered effective approaches to control the epidemic situation. We further discussed development directions of this model in the end.

国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有