摘要：The method of power consumption forecasting based on hierarchy of the objects forming system is considered. One of perspective methods of numerical modeling of casual processes, i.e. direct generation of the studied process realization by means of the Monte Carlo method is involved in the solution of this task. The mining equipment belongs to systems with final number of states, and the separate realization of their evolution process is enabled by method of “probabilistic automata method” which generates transitions between conditions of the system by some rules set in advance. The parameters which form the basis for drawing up a matrix of probabilities of transitions when modeling a running cycle of the shearer using this method are determined on the basis of statistical data. The regularities of power consumption by separate units, subsystems and the enterprise in general established by means of the offered model can be applied to the solution of a problem of increase in efficiency of the electric power use both at a design stage, and to conditions of normal operation of the enterprise.
