摘要：This paper will propose a complementary test for the hypothesis of the term structure with risk premia and make an empirical study on the Japanese Gensaki (bond repurchase) market using daily data. This complementary test employs an idea of reasonableness of risk premia. We adopt the probability that the return from an uncertain bond is greater than the return from a sure bond as a measure of the reasonableness of risk premia The important feature of this reasonableness measure is that it does not depend upon the specification of individuals' preferences. The calculated measure shows that the hypothesis of term structure with risk premia in the Gensaki market must be doubted.
