标题：The reliability assessment of the electromagnetic valve of high-speed electric multiple units braking system based on two-parameter exponential distribution
摘要：In order to solve the reliability assessment of braking system component of high-speed electric multiple units, this article, based on two-parameter exponential distribution, provides the maximum likelihood estimation and Bayes estimation under a type-I life test. First of all, we evaluate the failure probability value according to the classical estimation method and then obtain the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters of two-parameter exponential distribution by performing and using the modified likelihood function. On the other hand, based on Bayesian theory, this article also selects the beta and gamma distributions as the prior distribution, combines with the modified maximum likelihood function, and innovatively applies a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to parameters assessment based on Bayes estimation method for two-parameter exponential distribution, so that two reliability mathematical models of the electromagnetic valve are obtained. Finally, through type-I life test, the failure rates according to maximum likelihood estimation and Bayes estimation method based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm are, respectively, 2.650 × 10−5 and 3.037 × 10−5. Compared with the failure rate of a electromagnetic valve 3.005 × 10−5, it proves that the Bayes method can use a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate reliability for two-parameter exponential distribution and Bayes estimation is more closer to the value of electromagnetic valve. So, by fully integrating multi-source, Bayes estimation method can preferably modify and precisely estimate the parameters, which can provide a certain theoretical basis for the safety operation of high-speed electric multiple units.
关键词：Electromagnetic valve; two-parameter exponential distribution; modified maximum likelihood estimation; small sample; Bayes estimation; Markov chain Monte Carlo
